BigFooty AFL - Australian Rules Football Forum

Stephen Milne charged with 4 counts of rape

BigFootyNews — Tue, 18 Jun 2013 04:50:49 +0000

St Kilda forward Stephen Milne has been charged with rape over an incident that allegedly happened in 2004. Victoria Police today confirmed that Milne has been charged with four counts of rape following a review of the initial investigation carried out after the woman complained about Milne.

More details -http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/milne-charged-with-4-counts-of-rape.1013336/

2013 Mid Season AFL TV Report

BigFootyNews — Tue, 18 Jun 2013 03:21:31 +0000

In 2013 we are now able to compare like for like the TV ratings from last year, in terms of broadcast terms and arrangement. The number of teams is the same, and the fox arrangements are the same.

At a glance, ratings are up marginally on last year across both Foxtel and Seven/7mate. Foxtel ratings are up 5% after their meteoric rise last year where Foxtel ratings climbed in a big way thanks to the introduction of live and simultaneous broadcasts of all matches. Sevens ratings are up 1.5% on last season, after FTA ratings dropped 10%, heavily influenced by the developments at Foxtel.

The table above shows that FTA ratings have dropped more than 20% since 2008 when FTA coverage was offered by the Seven and Ten networks. The table allso shows a massive climb in the Foxtel ratings over the same time, when the paytv network, with 3 live matches a week and just under 8 million in ratings, climbed to nearly 21 million in 2012 under the newest media deal.

The table also shows that Sydney, Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth have worn a 30-40% drop in free to air audiences over 6 years, while Melbourne dropped 17% over the same period. Much of this can probably be attributed to the rise of live footy on foxtel, with increases this year attributable live tv coverage and form improvements.

The Perth FTA market appears to be down signifcantly, having lost half a million viewers this season, some of which could be attributed to West Coasts patchy form. Perths audience ratings are curious in that Perths broadcast schedule for this season appears to be almost completely on 7mate, whereas last year it was on Seven, which some forums are saying has caused confusion due in part to a lack of advertising. The change was done to accommodate live Friday nights without killing the news or other Friday night programming. Oddly enough, there are several occasions where Friday night football on 7mate has taken the top audience share in Perth.

The AFL continues to take a ratings hit with its locally guaranteed matches being screened before low audiences in Queensland and New South Wales. These matches hover around the 20-40k mark for the most part, although a Swans match reached 95k recently, highest AFL rating on a digital channel in Sydney ever, and one of the highest non final ratings in Sydney since 2009.

The top broadcast matches are again dominated by Friday night fixtures and Anzac Day, as well as the opening season fixtures, and the odd Saturday night match.

The Club viewing figures tell an interesting, if not the usual, story, with Essendon, Collingwood, Carlton and Geelong dominating both the Foxtel and Free to air ratings. North Melbourne should continue to feel aggrieved with the fixturing of its tv matches. With seven of its 11 matches to date receiving zero free to air coverage (and 10th in the ratings on Fox). I imagine its a frustrating sell to national sponsors in a crowded market when you arent getting exposure. The Bulldogs dont fare much better with just 4 matches not shown at all on Free to air and another 4 shown only to limited audiences in Queensland or New South Wales.

In conclusion, ratings are up marginally, with the Foxtel and Free to air tv ratings almost evenly poised, but still massively up on years to past in total. Beyond that, its the same old song. Friday nights continue to dominate the ratings. The Big clubs are dominating the ratings as expected, while the “minnow” clubs continue to be screwed over, not just by the fixture, but by the tv coverage which grants them critical exposure for their sponsors.

Ratings typically drop off in the latter half of the season, as the interest starts to focus on the teams who will make or shape the finals series, so the mid season ratings are rarely an indicator of where the season will finish up.

Article originally published in the Footybusiness blog.

You can also comment in BigFooty’s new The Footy Industry board.

2013 mid-season review and State of the Union

BigFootyNews — Mon, 17 Jun 2013 06:15:00 +0000

So, that's half the season done. How was it for you? Unless you're a supermasochist or a supporter of another club the answer undoubtedly involves the words "horrible", "horrendous" or the phrase "I'd rather jam a nail into my eye than go through that ever again" - all of which are perfectly reasonable reactions to the situation we've got ourselves in.

When I started writing this on Sunday afternoon it was safe in the knowledge that we were skint and that there was no way the board was going to tip the coach at least until we got thumped by the Bulldogs in two weeks' time. Little did I know that for the first time in history the Melbourne Football Club board had gone more than two days without leaking for the first time in recent history and that the decision had already been made that the coach was to go. Cue a rewrite to remove all references to "if", "when" and "how" the Neeld era would come to end - and to instead welcome our new temporary overlord Neil Craig, a man who it seems is being forced into the job at gunpoint.

As would be expected of a coach who only lasted 33 games there won't be a lot of flowing praise to read out as his eulogy. "Here lies Mark Neeld, he had a go" isn't going to be much to look back upon in the future but that's about it. Other than Jeremy Howe and Nathan Jones who has improved dramatically in the last two years? Even Jones started to get back into top form late in 2011 after Bailey got the arse, so I'm not sure if he can even claim that.

Whose fault it is/was will be debated for years to come, but the simple fact is that under him we have become a terrible team who are horribly boring to watch. Our scores since Round 1 2012 are 144, 135, 108, 96, 87, 84, 83, 83, 82, 81, 78, 78, 76, 74, 73, 72, 67, 66, 61, 60, 58, 58, 56, 54, 54, 49, 48, 49, 40, 40, 37, 36, 39. So far that's an average of 66 this year and 72 in 2012, and you can have one guess as to which two teams the three scores of over 100 were against.

At the moment our percentage is the third worst in any MFC season, in front of only 1906 (1 win, 48.75%) and 1919 (0 wins, 42.96%). The next worst in the history of our club is 59.54% in 1910, and at the moment we're a long way from getting to that. Nobody's talking about these stats but everyone can see why they're happening, I accept the fact that injuries are an issue but any team would be lucky to have their best 22 playing and it doesn't seem to matter what team lineup we have, we're still terrible and the players run around like headless chickens while opposition sides boost their percentage to untold levels.

Mark Neeld, like Neil Balme, Neale Daniher, Dean Bailey and god knows who else you are now free. Thanks for at least having a crack (albeit on a higher salary than the Prime Minister by the sound of it), but it's all over. Like them you may now go on to a less high-profile and lower paying but significantly less stressful job that won't make you look silly on a weekly basis. In honour of your escape from the MFC orbit after just 33 matches in charge we've organised a special celebrity guest to perform a musical tribute.

To be fair it could also apply to the people who have been frantically trying to get him in the arse for the last year and a half. Watch in whatever spirit suits you, and look carefully for 3.22 when he almost gets decapitated by a firework piffed from the crowd - which is pretty much the only thing that our fans didn't try and do to Neeld over the last 33 games.

What a tremendous shambles we are. Never fear though, like a small Central American republic we've got ourselves into a terrible state and the AFL is about to play the role of the USA and plow in with tanks, helicopters and all guns blazing to save us. Which, as history has shown us, always ends well. A few weeks ago I wrote on here that we had to avoid becoming the property of the league, but as it's almost inevitable now (if it hasn't already happened) we may as well accept that if we ever want to see prosperity again then a few blind eyes may need to be turned to a human rights abuses and sudden unexplained disappearances.

In the hours before troops land and a new puppet government is sworn in I'm not sure that anybody really needs another list of our litany of recent disasters, but for reasons of future historical study here's the abridged story of Round 1 to 11 2013. One day Demonblog will be passed on to future generations of my family as a record of how everything went wrong from shortly after I inadvertently insulted a lady hairdresser an hour before Round 1 2007 until they finally put the shutters up in December 2017 after President Kennett's failed attempt to relocate the club to the Cocos and Keeling Islands, and they may as well know how we got there.

The fiasco that is 2013 (at least the first bit of it) will certainly go down in history as something special, but I'm not sure whether the fact that we've been no good for so long makes it feel better or worse. After having respectability briefly dangled above our eyes during 2010 and 2011 I'd say worse. Compare with 2007, that year was bad but at least when we went in with high expectations and came out covered in murky brown water you could pretend it was a one off and things were going to get better. I really thought things would get better in 2008. Still waiting.

After we permanently turned to shite in Round 19, 2011 and saw no noticeable improvement last year only the most blindly optimistic or insane would have thought we could play finals a season later but 2013 was supposed to be Mark Neeld's version of Dean Bailey's 2010. It was meant to be a year where his side suggested that the disgraces of the past were behind them and that there was some sort of future, only for it to eventually go tits up anyway. Unfortunately for him it hasn't quite worked out as well as expected, and the only thing he's got in common with Bailey now is that they've both been set free from being involved with us.

In retrospect the alarm bells should have been ringing loudly in the pre-season. All three 'full' matches we played (and one of the novelty NAB Cup games) featured the opposition getting a run of several goals in a row that either wrecked our chances of winning or nearly did. The only reason we won the Port Adelaide game in Renmark (yes, future generations. Renmark. No, I've got no idea either. Look it up) was because their B-team let our B-team get off to a fast start, and they couldn't make chances count late in the last quarter.

People with shorter fuses than I started to panic when it happened against Gold Coast, and admittedly even I cocked an eyebrow with concern when St Kilda turned us over at Casey Fields with seven goals in a row, but both of those results could be written off as the result of pre-season tinkering. The only thing that matters is the regular season right? In fact many of us could almost have copped losing to Port in the first game as long as it was a decent performance. Then the plane hit the ground, and nothing would ever be the same again.

The assumption that Port were just as bad as us (or worse) didn't help. Had we lost by that margin to them at Football Park there would have been inquiries and inquests, and the MFC Facebook page would have instantly exploded in a shower of sparks, but it wouldn't have had the psychological effect on the whole club of being smashed by 80 points on the MCG after a whole off-season of 'hope' being force fed down our throats foie gras style.

There are some miserablists who wouldn't be happy unless we were winning the flag every year, but most normal people at least held out some hope - no matter how minor - that our situation would improve at least a little bit in 2013. We dreamed about what a fit Mitch Clark would do, watched the recruitment of Chris Dawes with interest, celebrated stealing Jack Viney for a criminally low pick, swooned over Toumpas, (some of us) held open minds about potentially nutty recruiting decisions and watched film of the players pushing themselves to the limit in the Darwin training camp. I wasn't the only one who got sucked in to thinking that there was no way they could be as terrible as last year again, and that natural progression should at least carry us to a few decent wins if not a big jump on the ladder. Sadly not for the first or last time I fell for it. I want to believe.

The most painful thing about the Port performance was how our defence was in total disarray. The likes of Frawley and Garland, who had done so much heroic work to stop every week being a 186, all of a sudden looking totally at sea. They eventually recovered, and Garland is an absolute certainty to be this year's defender who finishes top three in the B&F - but the damage was already done.

Looking back at that afternoon it was one of the few times this year we weren't all that bad out of the middle and looked relatively potent in the forward line - it was just that we couldn't stop a side who at the time we thought were our natural rivals for 16th place from scoring. Sure they went three goals up at the start of the game, but it's been shown numerous times this year that three goals behind is not a fatal spot to be in. When Mitch Clark kicked two in a row it looked like early nerves had been settled, that we were about to have a proper go and that beautiful Mitch was about to kick 70 goals for the season. We weren't, he sadly won't, and a cavalcade of players who were either unheralded or nobody had ever heard of proceeded to beat the shit out of us. Cue chaos.

Not for the last time in 2013 (or for the first time if you count 2012) it was an unstoppable rush of goals which sank us. A 29 point deficit at half time was hardly ideal, but better teams than Port have blown a five goal lead in two quarters. From the 10 minute mark onwards they kicked 5.4 to nothing - as well as the last goal of the second and first goal of the last. Seven in a row with barely a shot fired in response - for the whole third term we only managed a single rushed behind, and were outscored 8.12 to 1.4 for the full second half. Considering what was to come later it wasn't that bad, but the shock value of the defeat was enough to set everyone off on a path of self-destruction that made Richmond fans of the last three decades go "crikey, I recognise this" before they get back to enjoying finally following a non-shit side.

One week and a time and all that rubbish, but in a way the widespread panic following that game was fair enough. We had been promised better, and while some would have gone troppo even if we'd lost by a point nobody expected to lose by 80 - even if we didn't know at the time that Port were about to win five in a row. I was up the top of the Ponsford Stand yelling out all sorts of things as well, but the footage of players going off under a hail of abuse (including from a cantankerous old man) gave the media perfect opportunity to make us 2013's first 'club in crisis'. This was the role we were born for, and we were more than happy to go along with it.

A respectable performance against Essendon the next week might have put us back on something approaching the right path, but the whole thing was a massive botch from start to finish. It started with letting TV cameras show players sitting around looking confused by Neeld's pre-match speech (not sure whose fault it was that they didn't seem to know what was going on, but either way it shouldn't have been shown on TV considering the position we were in and the possibility that we'd be thrashed), travelling through Jack Watts being used as the scapegoat by fans and coaches alike to become our worst loss at the MCG ever. Another happy memory for the MFC "wish you were here" postcard series.

We went in holding a bizarre good recent record against the Bombers and came out with official confirmation that a shipwreck waiting to happen was now officially upside down on the rocks with burning oil spewing out the sides. Sure, we were getting thrashed at half time, that was to be expected. What wasn't so easy to understand was how from the three minute mark of the third quarter onwards we could concede 14.10 to 0.2. Thank god they couldn't kick straight, but it's not like we didn't give them enough chances to turn 148 into 186 or worse. It's a good thing we don't run into sides with something to prove more often.

That we would later find out half our team had been involved with the same 'sports supplements' shenanigans the Bombers were on the front pages for at the same time is neither here nor there, the Port fiasco had destroyed confidence in one dark afternoon, and from then the only question was how many bodybags would be required and when they should be delivered.

Cue an even more intense media frenzy, and a good old fashioned team bonding trip to try and do a runner from the media and get everyone's head back together. Surprisingly it worked for a while, we put in a decent first half against West Coast (who, in contrast with Port we didn't know yet were actually no good) before crashing to earth again. It was a more than adequate response, and they were quite rightly applauded from the ground for their vastly improved efforts but even at the time I wasn't sure a standing ovation for a 10 point deficit sent the right message. Polite applause would probably have sufficed. The Eagles must have walked from the field seeing that and thought "my god, we're going to pulverise this lot in the second half". Which they did, kicking 6.1 to nothing in the first 15 minutes of the third quarter to ruin any chance we had of winning then adding another 5.2 to 1.1 in the next 15 to turn it into a thrashing.

That was 'ok' as long as we beat GWS the next week. As it turns out, having already sacked Cameron Schwab after the Essendon game, we were in no position to pay Neeld's contract out anyway but as nobody knew at the time that we were up for $600k to give him the boot (really? $600k? Was this some sort of tax dodge?) it was widely assumed that he was out the door first thing Monday if the Giants beat us. Looking back now it's interesting to think what would have happened if we hadn't finally turned the tables and booted a shitload of goals in a row on somebody else (admittedly the AFL equivalent of the Diamond Valley Under 9's) during the last quarter. Would they have thrown caution to the wind and blown the bank giving him the arse right there and then? It would probably have been cleaner than waiting another two months for the AFL's money to hit our account.

At no matter how nervy it had been for three and a half quarters at least we had one win in the bank. Made us better than the 1919 side anyway, and by winning by more than a point we were technically better than 1981 as well. Things were looking us, and with the almost equally disappointing Lions the next week we had the chance to continue the good times for at least a fortnight. For a half it looked like that might be the case - then normal service resumed, conceding the first three goals of the third quarter in double quick time. The (brief) good times were over, yet to properly return for more than five or ten minutes at a time - and for some people gone for good.

Carlton tonked us the next week (five goals in a row to start to the game), then just when you thought it could get worse but were hoping it wouldn't Gold Coast did the same and helped us discover new and exciting levels of rock bottom. Neeld survived that debacle, using up another one of his lives due to us being totally skint, but surely when he walked out the door that day he understood that he was finished sooner rather than later. Sure he'd lost Mitch Clark, Jack Viney and Jack Grimes by this point, but even with the injury horrors still to come (Dawes, Frawley etc..) the rest of the team were playing like such total muppets that the buck could only stop at the top.

A decent showing against Richmond the next week took the heat off a bit, but 268 points worth of losses in the month since then (including the bye) stamped his papers - even if he did survive the Board Meeting of Death after the Hawthorn game. Thank god he did survive that day, not only to annoy the media vultures who camped out all day hoping to get the old entrails on the pavement shot, but it would have been an additional humiliation to find out that we're the sort of club who can't make a decision to sack somebody without having a scheduled board meeting first. Which would have come as a huge surprise to Dean Bailey, who probably remembers being given the arse at 7pm on a Sunday night after 186.

Given that the board didn't even bother backing the coach for the rest of the season it turned out that the most important part of the day's proceedings wasn't his famous 'presentation', it was the bit where we worked out that we had stuff all cash. Somehow that's been addressed and he's free to sit at home and catch up on all the TV he's missed in the last couple of years. His Foxtel IQ must be absolutely heaving by now, time to enjoy the full 12 hour Real Housewives Of Atlanta marathon without being interrupted by phone calls from Rory Taggert.

So here we are, the very familiar 1-10. Same as 2008, same as 2009, same as 2012. Not the same as 2010 and 2011 because they were basically premiership seasons in comparison. If only we'd had 500 top 20 draft picks in the last few years we might not be in this situation eh? As much as Peter Jackson danced around the issue at the Neeld press conference there's no doubt we have or are going to ask for a priority pick - which is absolutely brazen but you might as well try.

Neeld got one last thing right as he went out the door when he said that you would obviously take one if it were offered. If they're stupid enough to throw morality out the window and give us one then that's their problem and they can explain it to all the clubs who have done the right thing over the years and not turned into a rolling fiasco. They couldn't do it though could they? Surely the game is that we ask for a really good extra pick and eventually end up with one at the end of the first round - which even if it would still be morally unsavoury is at least not complete daylight robbery.

Drafting shenanigans will have to wait though, we've got to get through the second half of the season first. God knows what horrors await us, but the bad news is that we've finished our golden run of playing all but two games at the MCG in the first 13. Now we've got to go to Docklands (losses) and Kardinia Park (big losses) as well as the unknown quantities of Carrara (in the modern era at least) and the Sydney Showgrounds. Good luck with that Neil Craig.

Realistically we could win the next two games (though even with the new couch bounce we probably won't) but after that without a remarkable turnaround or stroke of luck the only games that we've got half a chance in are Brisbane in Darwin, GWS in Sydney and the Bulldogs in the last round even though it's at Docklands where we're no chance of ever putting in a good performance. Hopefully they're back down in putrid territory by then and out slop us OR are tanking furiously to try and finish below St Kilda. At this point I really don't care whether we get pick 1, 2, 3 or 4 - if you can't find a winning player with one of those then you're either spaz, the MFC or both.

There's not much scope for getting a run on anywhere in the second half of the season as we run into good teams too often, but if we can get Dawes, Frawley, Grimes, Viney and god forbid Clark back into the side by Round 17, and limit the psychological damage from our trip to Kardinia Park, we could conceivably win a couple and put in some decent performances from there.

Only Brisbane, GWS and Footscray are obviously winnable matches but North, Gold Coast and Adelaide aren't entirely out of the question if we can lift ourselves out of Josef Fritzl's basement and start playing like a proper AFL team again.

Round 13 - St Kilda (Docklands) (Maybe)

Round 14 - Footscray (MCG) (Maybe)

Round 15 - Sydney (MCG) (No chance)

Round 16 - Geelong (Kardinia Park) (Oh god we'll be murdered)

Round 17 - Brisbane (Darwin) (Maybe)

Round 18 - North Melbourne (Docklands) (Maybe if they're still being super flaky and mental)
Round 19 - GWS (Showgrounds) (Could very well win)

Round 20 - Gold Coast (Carrara) (Hopefully they're over it by this point)

Round 21 - Fremantle (MCG) (Will probably lose 10.10.70 to 0.5.5)
Round 22 - Adelaide (Football Park) (Assume we'll get thrashed just because of the venue)
Round 23 - Footscray (Docklands) (Time to go out on a high)

Unfortunately for Neil Craig you can get Weekend at Bernie's styles reincarnations of Norm Smith and Checker Hughes in the coaches box if you like and it won't make a lick of difference if you don't have the players. So on that note we turn to one of my favourite mid-season features for a look at who you should be investing in, and who you should furiously sell shares in as their value plummets to earth. Thanks to our generous sponsors the Pyramid Building Society it's...

Buy, Hold, Sell

Buy

Aaron Davey - I like his old stuff better than his new stuff, but recent form show he could go on next year at a lower price. Alternatively he's probably playing himself into being a chance of other more immediately successful clubs being interested in dropping him into their side for one or two seasons while he chases a flag.

Chris Dawes - Just started to show why he was recruited when in true MFC fashion he injured himself. It's supposed to be minor, so I expect we'll never see him play again.

James Frawley - Decided that he's not going anywhere at the end of this year at least. Was just coming back into form when injured so we should get at least one more good season out of him before he's off to Hawthorn.

Colin Garland - Career best form in a career worst defence after a rocky start, but I have serious concerns over his mental health. He cares, which is more than can be said for many. Hopefully he doesn't care too much and can sleep at night.

Jack Grimes - Surely his next major injury has to be a repeat of one of the other ones, nobody could have this much bad luck to different parts of their body. Was just starting to look like a top quality player when hurt, after getting through all of last year unhurt and only being put out by a freak contact accident this year I'm confident he'll be back better than ever.

Jesse Hogan - There's nothing we do better than put far too much expectation on the shoulders of a kid, so let's do it again. Sell your house and use it to buy stock in him, then watch him become the next John Butcher and play five games in three years.

Jeremy Howe - Has levelled off in the last couple of weeks as other teams have realised that he's our get-out option, but there's a lot to be said for having one player who commentators jizz openly over in keeping us out of 4.40pm Sunday every single week.

Matt Jones - Has come from nowhere to be one of our better midfielders. Which is, admittedly, like being one of the highest rating programs on ABC3 but has still been a pleasant surprise.

Nathan Jones - Will get tired of carrying the rest of the midfield on his back eventually. Get him some help before he cracks up. Now firmly back in the frame for captaincy next year, possibly on a joint ticket with Grimes.

Dean Terlich - Cocks up occasionally and probably wouldn't get a game at 16 other clubs but like Jones has pleasantly surprised. Might be holding a spot until somebody better comes along, but that could be five years or more at this rate.

Jack Trengove - Starting to get back towards his 2011 form. Start buying now at a low price, could be flying by the end of the year - and hopefully unburdened by captaincy and/or injury will be set for a big 2014.

Jack Viney - Blue chip prospect. Forget the injuries for now, as long as this mysterious toe isn't going to keep troubling him he'll play every week.

Hold

Rohan Bail - Contracted for next year so there's time for him to do something, and Neeld did seem to like him until last week, but has he ever had a really good game? It didn't hurt Clint Bartram's career to fly under the radar for five years, but at least he was quietly achieving in the background.

Dom Barry - An unknown quantity so far. Keep watching.

Sam Blease - Provides some excitement and kicks goals when you play him inside 50 (i.e 2012) but still about as likely to hit a target kicking on the run as I am. Has been downhill ever since you voted him my new favourite player, but will hopefully now be restored to his rightful place kicking goals out of his arse.

Mitch Clark - So many injuries. Makes me sad to think that he was on the way to kicking about 15 against GWS last year and since then we've only seen him a couple of times. Can do damage, has to play first.

Neil Craig - Holding for the fort until the end of the year. Assuming he's not going to put his hand up for the top job, but even Todd Viney got excited about the prospect of staying on after one win. Then we lost to Port and he was stuffed. The question is whether we'll remember his stint kindly or whether he join the likes of Alan McConnell as caretaker coaches for more than 10 games who didn't manage a win.

Michael Evans - Has hit the wall after a few good weeks at the start of the year, but signed a new contract and will be there for the next couple of years at least. Worth keeping in the side for the rest of the year.

Jack Fitzpatrick - Looks like he'll get more opportunities, and big men get more time than anyone else, but playing for your career in our forward line must be the hardest job in football. Hasn't done anything yet to show that he's a better long term forward option than Juice Newton but god forbid he plays in a game where we're not putrid and have 12 inside 50's then he might be able to show something.

Max Gawn - Absolutely 100% a required player, but it would be nice if we would actually play him where he's supposed to be played for more than five minutes every week. We're shit anyway and will be no matter what we're doing, so why not look toward the future and play him as our first ruck? No wonder he hasn't signed a new contract, the fact that we stood by him through two knee reconstructions aside why wouldn't he be open to offers elsewhere?

Dean Kent - Not sure if he can play footy yet but appears to have the sort of anti-social streak which I can get behind.

Joel Macdonald - I still like him, even if nobody else does. If for no other reason than his Twitter picture, which appears to be the man himself waving at a security camera.

James Magner - Should be playing in front of Rodan. One of them is a chance of being there in a couple of years, and while Mags is never going to be a superstar he can get the ball and appears to care. Showed enough last year to deserve a couple of years on the senior list, but was obviously not in favour under Neeld so who knows what will happen now.

Tom McDonald - Like Blease he's gone backwards ever since getting the public's stamp of approval, but there's plenty of time for the King of Sizzle to get back to the 2012 vintage. Playing in our backline is a task that will cause anybody to have moments of self-doubt and farce/shambles so patience is a virtue.

Melbourne Football Club - We're not dead yet, but intensive rehabilitation is required.

Daniel Nicholson - Woefully out of form this year. Showed a bit last season though, so it's not all over yet. Can run fast. Would be nice if he was used in a way that complemented that attribute.

Cameron Pedersen - Across the next three (3!) seasons he'd want to show something more than a brief cameo like the GWS game to avoid becoming the poster-child for wacky recruiting and list management decisions under Neeld. Not completely off him yet but worried about him being relegated to defence permanently.

Jake Spencer - Can tap, can run surprisingly quick, can kick from a 'stoppage' but has absolutely NFI in traffic. Contracted for next year so likely to play a few more games, but unlikely to become a regular without injury or Gawn dicking us and going elsewhere. Probably not costing us much, but unless we're going to get a ready-made replacement via trade/free agency then he's worth having around.

James Strauss - Looked good when he came back from injury late last year, and wasn't playing all that badly when he got dropped for the Freo game. Came back a week later and was ordinary but given that he's been around so long and we're going to be terrible no matter what so would it be such a crime to play him anyway? If you dropped every player who put in one horrid week we'd only ever be able to field 22 players for Round 1.

Jimmy Toumpas - Apparently picked with the long term in mind because he'd had two hip operations, which makes it odd that he played the whole pre-season and the first couple of games. Young enough to be a blank canvas he's shown that when he gets the ball he can be dangerous but just doesn't know how to get it yet. That's fine, plenty of time to go. Started to show a bit on Queen's Birthday before the whole side went tits up. Must play the rest of the year if fit.

Jack Watts - Like Fitzpatrick is struggling to show his best in a forward line which gets no service, but there's still questions about how much he wants it and apart from a couple of cameos here and there hasn't done a great deal this year. Is still every possible chance to wave two fingers at us and rack off elsewhere. Performances in 2011 showed that in a forward line where he gets a respectable amount of silver-platter service then he can be dangerous, but I fear that by the time we're able to provide that he'll be enjoying playing pressure-off second fiddle to Jack Riewoldt.

Maia Westrupp - Our record shows that we can't teach Australian kids how to play properly so I'm not sure how we're going to get on with a New Zealander - but you never know, it might work.

Sell

Shannon Byrnes - Two good games against teams in our division (GWS and Brisbane) and a bunch of ordinary to bad ones against better sides. I'm all for the off-field benefits but not entirely sure why we signed him on a two year contract. A new coach might invite him to have a 'quiet word' with a view to being shuffled off to the backroom staff.

Troy Davis - Going nowhere, deserves an opportunity at some point but would have to do something dramatic to survive.

Lynden Dunn - The party's over. Being an angry individual will only get you so far. At least his mum will be happy that CEO, Coach and President are all gone.

Tom Gillies - Might get another go before the end of the year, and I'd like him to just to avoid leaving us with an average losing margin of +100 points and zero good memories but on a one year contract he'd be lucky to go on next year.

Mark Jamar - Improved performance on Queen's Birthday, but his brief glory era is over. Will still be there next year, and has surprised in the past, but isn't

Neville Jetta - Has played enough games now that we can be sure he's not going to be a match winner. May have a place at a better club.

Jordie McKenzie - Signs contract extension, goes backwards. Melbourne FC magic. Must pine for the Dean Bailey era.

David Rodan - Like Byrnes the off-field stuff is great but on-field it's not a big win. Unlike Byrnes he's only on a one year deal so I've got no doubt he'll be invited to a special player review in Carpark D at Casey Fields after which he'll never be seen again.

James Sellar - Competing for exactly the same spot as Pedersen. I like the guy but he's not going to win that battle. The sudden emergence of Craig may give him a leg up before Mr. New Coach gives him the boot.

Colin Sylvia - Get what you can before he's playing for another club.

Rory Taggert - Doesn't seem to be doing much at Casey. Might get Tom McNamara games at the end of the season.

Luke Tapscott - I don't know who to blame but doesn't seem to be anything more than a bit part player at the moment. Needs to go back into defence quickly.

The Trumpteer - Tellingly relegated to 'only playing when we win' after Schwab got the arse I'm sure they're not even inviting the guy to show up anymore. By the time we win another game at the G nobody will remember this rubbish gimmick anyway, so it's a perfect time to put it to bed and remove at least one of the ways that our club humiliates itself on a regular basis.

Josh Tynan - After two games in two and a half seasons he'd want to get back into contention for a senior game pretty quickly.

Faulty Crystal Ball Corner

Looking back on the season preview post it's distressing to see how apologetic I was being about tipping us to come fifth last, as if by this point we'd be in the top eight and I'd have to admit how wrong I was. Fat chance. After setting our over/under at 5.5 wins we'll be lucky to get within a mile of it at this rate.

Things I got right included Nathan Jones being red-hot favourite for the Jakovich Medal and predicting that none of the ruckmen would get close to the main award. On the ladder I was right in predicting Hawthorn would be good (wow, what an achievement), GWS would be terrible (again, amazing prediction skills there) and that St Kilda wouldn't be much good either - but anybody could have managed that.

On the other hand I had Watts third in Jakovich betting with neither Matt Jones or Terlich given a hope. Not that either of them will win, but they will go close to the top five. Also Gawn at $45 for the Stynes seems absurd now, but I foolishly assumed that Jamar would win it by a million miles.

As for my predicted ladder the major clangers at the moment are Collingwood (1st), West Coast (3rd), Adelaide (4th), Brisbane (11th), Essendon (12th), Port Adelaide (16th) and Gold Coast (17th).

Here's an updated final ladder, so don't expect to see any of this actually happen. Teams grouped alongside the ones they're in the same class as. Once again the battle for 8th shows that anybody who suggests expanding the finals beyond eight should be thrown out of a window.

1. Hawthorn

2. Sydney

3. Fremantle

-------------

4. Geelong

5. Essendon

-------------

6. Collingwood

-------------

7. Richmond

-------------

8. Carlton

9. North Melbourne

10. West Coast

11. Port Adelaide

-------------

12. Adelaide

13. Gold Coast

-------------

14. Brisbane

15. St Kilda

16. Footscray

-------------

17. Melbourne

18. Greater Western Sydney

I think Hawthorn will win everything, but I'll be going for Freo. At the other end I'm concerned about finishing below GWS - they've been just as awful as we have, but have arguably looked better in being terrible. If we can't beat them we probably won't win another game, so either both teams go into a neck-and-neck one win apiece backwards percentage race to the bottom or they catch fire late in the year and leave us stone motherless with our head in the oven.

Assuming we get pick two and the AFL aren't fooled into giving us a priority pick at the top of the draft it will be interesting to see what happens considering a big forward is supposed to be one of the top selections. GWS surely won't want him considering they'll have Cameron and Patton (maybe Franklin too, watch the AFL ensure that move happens in a desperate attempt to boost crowds into five figures) and neither will we assuming Mitch Clark can go on next year. Or would we?

The 'best available' crowd would suggest that you take the forward, and Clark becomes more of a ruckman in front of a Dawes > Hogan > Boyd forward set-up (with possible half-forward flank contributions from Watts if he stays) but knowing that both St Kilda and Footscray would give their right nut for a key forward is there some sort of trade we can do that involves us swapping P2 for P4 as well as their second round pick and sweeteners? The only problem is that whether it's St Kilda or Footscray who finish just above us neither of them have anything worthwhile to add as a sweetener - which is why it almost certainly wouldn't happen.

With our midfield in the state it is I'm sure they will opt for one of them instead and allow the forward to fall through to pick three (keep an eye out for dodgy behaviour by St Kilda and Footscray late in the year, I want a Tankquiry if there's any question about their tactics) unless they can somehow scab a good, experienced midfielder via free agency or have somebody worthwhile committed to us via the pre-season draft. Fair enough, there's no point having a million forwards if there's nobody to kick it to them.

Meet The Pres

How strange have things become when the prospect of Jeff Kennett becoming our President is actually seriously being discussed. Sadly for the media, as much as they're cheerleading the bizarre switch just to get a hall of fame quote machine a job (Channel 9 - "McLardy's resignation clears the way for Jeff Kennett to become MFC President) I can't see it happening.

In the end that's probably a good thing. I'm not married to the idea that your President absolutely must be a passionate supporter of the club (though I'll put out an open invitation for Jeff to come sit with me next Saturday night so we can talk footy and yell abuse at all and sundry), as long as they've got a strong board of MFC people keeping them in line and all the necessary constitutional protections are there to stop them from doing anything insane without a vote of the members.

We could do with a strong leader now, and god knows Jeff's intervention hasn't exactly flushed out a number of interested contenders yet, but we also need unity and that's one of the biggest issues about the idea. The fact that he's called for us to be merged, relocated, shot at dawn etc.. in the past will be too much for some. Personally I look it as him wanting to make sure we don't end up in that situation again, rather than coming in with the grand plan of railroading us into a merger with Footscray or North - but he's not going to win without a vote and if he wins a vote it won't be decisive. Which will presumably lead to those who don't like the result sniping from the sidelines and doing more harm than good until he throws his hands up in the air and walks off. I'm not sure I'd vote for him (as long as a decent alternative put their hand up) but if he got in then he's got a blank slate.

Now that we're basically run by the AFL if they want him he'll probably get the job, but would they? Not by the sound of Peter Jackson's press conference where he basically laughed the idea out of the room. I think the league would prefer somebody who is a good leader but also not as likely to make trouble, an MFC version of "jolly entertainment industry man" like David Koch. Not that we'll ever be able to make trouble in any way again after they've handed over a shedload of cash, we're their property then. May as well cut out the middleman and name Andrew Demetriou himself as the president.

I'm sticking with my conspiracy theory that this whole thing is Jeff acting as the stalking horse for his as yet unnamed mates who are 'calling on him to run'. Not sure how close he is to Alan Stockdale (and Jeff's got a record of not being all that fond of his fellow Libs) but that's one option. Either way whether you like him or not if he's absolutely serious about this and not just trying to keep his name in the press Aker style it would be good if he could get around to eventually introducing some of these other people that he wants the members to go out of their way to vote in.

Jeff is quite right in that there is no constitutional measure that can be used for fans to call an EGM (I think I said on here before that the signatures of 95% of the members are required - this is not correct, that's only to put a resolution to the members with less than 21 days' notice), so unless the board are keen on committing hari kiri mid-season and putting themselves up for a vote now then very little is going to happen before the next scheduled AGM. The problem is that it's usually held in February and a lot of big decisions need to be made before then - at the moment I'm happy with Peter Jackson effectively running the show but eventually everyone is going to have to be on the same page so we don't go into 2014 as an off-field shambles as well as on-field.

Note that the last time we had contested board elections, in 2011, they were held in mid-December. This has to be done again, the decision on the coach and a lot of the off-field stuff will already have been taken by then but we can't wait until the eve of the season to have our bloody backroom brawls - at least doing it in November or December allows whoever wins to have a few months to establish themselves before the actual business of playing footy comes around. Also note that the aforementioned Mr. Stockdale was a big part of that election too, including the allegation that he wanted Ron Walker to be President. The same Ron Walker is fairly chummy with one J. Kennett. The plot thickens, though Ron is now 73 so I think we can rule him out (as opposed to Jeff who is a spritely 65, even if he does look about 97 at times).

The establishment candidate seems to be Geoff Freeman, but apparently he's not got health concerns but he's also nipping off to France on holidays for a few weeks. As this article so rightly points out it's hardly the fist pumping, political rally style candidacy that we're all dreaming of. No wonder people are seriously considering Jeff - at least he used to do feelgood good ads with big band versions of Up There Cazaly playing in the background. We can't hold it against him that he shut down a few schools and all that 20 years ago, for one it's got nothing to with running a footy club in 2013 and if we're supposed to be the club run by Tory bastards for Tory bastards we might as well embrace it for the first time since the Billy Snedden era. If his slate of candidates is better than the other side's anyway.

Pipe dreams about Jeff rescuing us from the Cain/Kirner style Schwab/Bailey/Neeld era aside that post is right that the CEO is far more important than the president, who is effectively a figurehead who gets to speak at a lot of a lunches. If we've got the right guy there until the end of next year we probably don't need to take a death or glory last stab at relevance by putting somebody bizarre and previously unthinkable in charge. The whole thing would be a tremendous ego trip for Jeff, but there's still part of me that says it would be a fun ride.

In summary show me the options and I'll make a decision. I don't rule out anything at the moment, and the credentials of the people who are going to be on the board are as important as the President himself, so I'll cross this bridge when two (or more) lists of candidates are in front of me.

Next Week

Without a Casey game to base my changes off, and despite the last few weeks being so abysmal, I'd like some continuity in the side for at least one more week. Haven't we had enough sackings recently?

The following assumes a) Dawes is fit, b) Jack Viney isn't and c) Tom Couch isn't upgraded from the rookie list before Thursday. If a) is not correct then send Pedersen forward (for want of anybody else) and give Tapscott a go down back. If Viney's fit then Rodan can go - he wasn't all that bad but it's time for the future. Couch deserves a go, but there's probably only room for one of he and Magner in the side so he's not getting upgraded unless he's going to play.

IN: Magner, Macdonald

OUT: McKenzie, Tapscott (omit)

LUCKY: Dunn, Fitzpatrick, Rodan

Next Year

The process of trying to find a new senior coach apparently starts "now", which is hardly compatible with the assumption that we 'must' have somebody experienced in charge but it wouldn't be the first time we've lined up another side's assistant while their side is still going. It's what saved Dean Bailey from being involved in Port's shambolic 2007 Grand Final, and Mark Neeld from Collingwood's losing 2011 effort. The moral of the story is that if Paul Roos is still refusing to take our calls don't seek out anybody who works for a club that might eventually lose the Grand Final.

That's why it's Choco time. Also because he fits the bill as somebody who is a bit of a hard bastard (which we still want even after the 2012/13 disaster), but has been around the block plenty of times, can handle the media and is also enough of a left-field thinker that he understands the absurdity of the situation he's walking into. Let's hope he doesn't have too good a time with the Tigers for the rest of the year and get comfortable with the life of a sweating, boundary line lunatic. Also here's hoping he's looking forward to getting back into suits, I want a coach in a suit. Even Caro's keen, and as she practically runs the club at the moment that's a good sign.

If not the great man then there's a lot of other 'experienced' coaches out there. Please add any I've missed, but the following are all current AFL assistants who have had senior coaching experience Mark Harvey (Brisbane), Rodney Eade (Collingwood), Mark Thompson (Essendon), Brett Ratten (Hawthorn) and Dean Laidley (St Kilda) - plus assistants who have stepped in for caretaker stints of varying lengths like Darren Crocker, Gary Hocking, Alan Richardson and Paul Williams.

There's also some guy called Bailey who (sort of) works at Adelaide but I'm not sure he's an option. John Worsfold looks likely to be on the way out of West Coast in the near future, but he looks like he needs a break so I'd rather not tempt him with a truckload of cash if his heart's not in it. His knowledge of chemistry procedure might be helpful at the Dankquiry, but to be moderately controversial the Eagles haven't done all that much in the last few years with a pretty talented list, so what's he bringing to a team bereft of hope or good fortune?

Then there's Gary Ayres, who a caller on SEN thought would be great for us because he once yelled at a fellow Hawthorn player for gobbing on the ground of the changeroom. Also something about winning a premiership with Shane Valenti and whoever Billy Burstin is. Damien Drum is available if you're keen, can convince him to leave a tremendously cushy job in the Upper House and were dropped on your head as a child.

If not Roos or Choco I'm not all that concerned. Personally my third choice would be Laidley, but that's because I've always admired his lunatic side rather than any hope that he could turn us around. Mark Harvey's owl eyes would at least provide some amusement value up until the point where he took a restraining order out on me.

Whoever it is they need to be backed in for a full three years come what may. There has rarely been a bigger hole for any coach to pull a club out of, and this guy won't be afforded the relative luxuries that Neeld had when he took over full of high ideals and bold dreams. He hasn't had all that much time, but that doesn't matter because we've gone so far backwards - this new guy and whatever team he ends up with is going to start from scratch.

Then there's the players. I suspect that we can't afford the same sort of widespread massacre as last year, but there will certainly be a lot of changes. However the way our contracts have been set up, with a lot of very middle of the road players being on the books for 2014 whether we like it or not, there's not a huge scope for butchery by the new coach.

As always, until somebody comes up with a better source, all contract details are from this thread hosted by our founder and generous major sponsor BigFooty.

SAFE
Blease, Clark, Dawes, Evans, Frawley, Garland, Howe, M. Jones, N. Jones, Kent, McDonald, Terlich, Toumpas, Trengove, Viney

SAFE IF THEY'RE INTERESTED
Gawn, Sylvia, Watts

SAFE ONLY DUE TO CONTRACT STATUS
Bail, Byrnes, Dunn, Jamar, McKenzie, Pedersen, Spencer, Strauss, Tapscott

PROBABLY SAFE
Clisby, Davey, Magner, Stark

SHAKY GROUND
Couch, Fitzpatrick, Jetta, Macdonald, Nicholson, Rodan, Tynan

AS GOOD AS GONE
Davis, Gillies, Sellar, Taggert

At the moment I'd say the ones set to go from the senior list are the last four, plus Jetta, Rodan and a dashing Colin Sylvia legging to any team likely to challenge for the flag in the next two seasons. Pending any other retirements or Watts doing a shit bloke move and going elsewhere that's seven spots to fill, which seems about right. While it might mean some borderline cases like Fitzpatrick, Macdonald and Tynan survive there's no point knifing them if we haven't got trades/free agents to effectively replace them with.

As it stands if we're lucky to finish second last (instead of bottom) before the draft order is molested by free agent compensation we'd get picks 2, 20, 38, 56, 74 and 92 plus the Pre-Season and Rookie Drafts. Let's assume 74 and 92 aren't used, but the PSD pick is - that's five 'senior' players coming in plus rookie elevations (Magner?) and any free agents we can lure into our house of horrors. If that means somebody like Neville Jetta survives another year for depth so be it.

It's all well and good putting the white screen up around Joel Mac because you don't enjoy his backline work and pointing at the security camera antics, but if you're just going to replace him with pick 92 or a rookie then what's the point? May as well get a few kids in this year, wait a season and get a few more kids in before totally shutting the door. I'm all for playing draft picks over the next couple of years but we can't totally throw it over to the kids GWS style without seeing half our fanbase walk away with the promise that they'll be back in a couple of years when we're being serious again - which we may never get the chance to do again if we keep going in this direction.

Has it been worth it?

Ask me in 18 months.

Will the next 11 games be worth it?
Yes, every day that the club is above ground is a good day.

Final thoughts

Time to remove your head from the oven and get there on Saturday night. Even if you have to, god forbid, pay for a ticket to get into an away game. We might not get to enjoy unity for long, let's at least get through the next fortnight before murdering each other.

AFL Teams, Round 12 2013

BigFootyNews — Thu, 13 Jun 2013 11:40:35 +0000

CARLTON v HAWTHORN

Friday 14 June, 7:50pm, Etihad Stadium

Carlton
B: Mitch Robinson, Michael Jamison, Lachie Henderson
HB: Zach Tuohy, Dennis Armfield, Josh Bootsma
C: Andrew Carrazzo, Chris Judd, Kade Simpson
HF: Ed Curnow, Andrew Walker, Jeff Garlett
F: Brock McLean, Jarrad Waite, Matthew Kreuzer
Foll: Levi Casboult, Marc Murphy, Heath Scotland
Int: Bryce Gibbs, Kane Lucas, Eddie Betts, Jaryd Cachia
Emerg: Chris Yarran, Sam Rowe, Simon White

In: A.Carrazzo, J.Bootsma
Out: S.White, C.Yarran

Hawthorn
B: Ben Stratton, Brian Lake, Brent Guerra
HB: Josh Gibson, Grant Birchall, Sam Mitchell
C: Isaac Smith, Luke Hodge, Bradley Hill
HF: Jack Gunston, Lance Franklin, Shaun Burgoyne
F: Paul Puopolo, Jarryd Roughead, Luke Breust
Foll: Max Bailey, Brad Sewell, Jordan Lewis
Int: Liam Shiels, Taylor Duryea, David Hale, Jonathan Simpkin
Emerg: Kyle Cheney, Sam Grimley, Shane Savage

In: M.Bailey, J.Gunston
Out: K.Cheney, S.Grimley

RICHMOND v ADELAIDE CROWS

Saturday 15 June, 1:40pm, MCG

Richmond
B: Steven Morris, Alex Rance, Bachar Houli
HB: Chris Newman, Troy Chaplin, Nick Vlastuin
C: Shaun Grigg, Trent Cotchin, Daniel Jackson
HF: Aaron Edwards, Shane Edwards, Jake King
F: Ty Vickery, Jack Riewoldt, Dustin Martin
Foll: Ivan Maric, Brett Deledio, Nathan Foley
Int: Matt White, Brandon Ellis, Jake Batchelor, Reece Conca
Emerg: Robin Nahas, David Astbury, Sam Lonergan

In: R.Conca, B.Ellis
Out: S.Lonergan, M.Dea (calf)

Adelaide
B: Rory Laird, Ben Rutten, Andrew Otten
HB: David Mackay, Daniel Talia, Brodie Smith
C: Nathan van Berlo, Patrick Dangerfield, Rory Sloane
HF: Thomas Lynch, Josh Jenkins, Bernie Vince
F: Jason Porplyzia, Shaun McKernan, Ian Callinan
Foll: Sam Jacobs, Scott Thompson, Richard Douglas
Int: Matthew Jaensch, Luke Brown, Ricky Henderson, Matthew Wright
Emerg: Graham Johncock, Jarryd Lyons, Brad Crouch

In: D.Mackay, M.Jaensch, M.Wright, L.Brown
Out: B.Reilly, J.Petrenko (shoulder), S.Kerridge, B.Crouch

FREMANTLE v BRISBANE LIONS

Saturday 15 June, 2:40pm, Patersons Stadium

Fremantle
B: Zac Dawson, Luke McPharlin, Lee Spurr
HB: Paul Duffield, Michael Johnson, Nick Suban
C: Clancee Pearce, Ryan Crowley, Michael Barlow
HF: Nathan Fyfe, Chris Mayne, Hayden Crozier
F: Hayden Ballantyne, Jack Hannath, Alex Silvagni
Foll: Zac Clarke, David Mundy, Stephen Hill
Int: Garrick Ibbotson, Tendai Mzungu, Matt de Boer, Danyle Pearce
Emerg: Cameron Sutcliffe, Matthew Taberner, Tom Sheridan

In: A.Silvagni
Out: C.Sutcliffe

Brisbane
B: Ryan Harwood, Justin Clarke, Elliot Yeo
HB: Jed Adcock, Joel Patfull, Ryan Lester
C: Sam Mayes, Jack Redden, Pearce Hanley
HF: Rohan Bewick, Jordan Lisle, Dayne Zorko
F: Ashley McGrath, Matthew Leuenberger, Brent Staker
Foll: Niall McKeever, Simon Black, Tom Rockliff
Int: Andrew Raines, Mitch Golby, Sam Docherty, Daniel Rich
Emerg: James Polkinghorne, Billy Longer, Marco Paparone

In: M.Leuenberger, T.Rockliff, J.Lisle, D.Rich, M.Golby, N.McKeever, S.Mayes
Out: B.Moloney (back), J.Polkinghorne, P.Karnezis, B.Longer, J.Crisp, S.Michael, M.Paparone

ESSENDON v GOLD COAST SUNS

Saturday 15 June, 7:40pm, Etihad Stadium

Essendon
B: Tayte Pears, Jake Carlisle, Mark Baguley
HB: Brendon Goddard, Cale Hooker, Michael Hibberd
C: Brent Stanton, Jobe Watson, Dyson Heppell
HF: Jason Winderlich, Michael Hurley, Stewart Crameri
F: Nick Kommer, Joe Daniher, Alwyn Davey
Foll: Patrick Ryder, Heath Hocking, David Zaharakis
Int: Jackson Merrett, Jake Melksham, Ben Howlett, David Myers
Emerg: Tom Bellchambers, Elliott Kavanagh, Kyle Hardingham

In: T.Pears, J.Merrett
Out: W.Hams, D.Fletcher (groin)

Gold Coast
B: Trent McKenzie, Sam Day, Joel Wilkinson
HB: David Swallow, Rory Thompson, Tom Murphy
C: Matt Shaw, Gary Ablett, Jarrod Harbrow
HF: Liam Patrick, Tom Lynch, Aaron Hall
F: Campbell Brown, Daniel Gorringe, Timmy Sumner
Foll: Tom Nicholls, Danny Stanley, Dion Prestia
Int: Jack Hutchins, Michael Rischitelli, Luke Russell, Jaeger O’Meara
Emerg: Jacob Gillbee, Steven May, Maverick Weller

In: D.Gorringe
Out: C.Dixon (ankle)

GWS GIANTS v PORT ADELAIDE

Sunday 16 June, 1:10pm, Skoda Stadium

GWS Giants
B: Lachie Plowman, Joshua Bruce, Adam Kennedy
HB: Curtly Hampton, Tim Mohr, Sam Reid
C: Lachie Whitfield, Adam Treloar, Tom Scully
HF: Jacob Townsend, Jeremy Cameron, Stephen Coniglio
F: Rhys Palmer, Adam Tomlinson, Devon Smith
Foll: Jonathan Giles, Callan Ward, Toby Greene
Int (from): Zachary Williams, Taylor Adams, Stephen Gilham, Dylan Shiel, Aidan Corr, Will Hoskin-Elliott, Gerald Ugle

In: W.Hoskin-Elliott, Z.Williams, T.Greene
Out:

Port Adelaide
B: Alipate Carlile, Jack Hombsch, Cameron O’Shea
HB: Matthew Broadbent, Thomas Jonas, Tom Logan
C: Chad Wingard, Travis Boak, Kane Cornes
HF: Jake Neade, John Butcher, Angus Monfries
F: Cameron Hitchcock, Jay Schulz, Justin Westhoff
Foll: Matthew Lobbe, Oliver Wines, Hamish Hartlett
Int (from): Nathan Blee, Andrew Moore, Brad Ebert, Matt Thomas, Robbie Gray, Kane Mitchell, Paul Stewart

In: M.Thomas, M.Lobbe, P.Stewart, A.Moore, N.Blee
Out: C.Heath, J.Redden (shoulder)

COLLINGWOOD v WESTERN BULLDOGS

Sunday 16 June, 4:40pm, Etihad Stadium

Collingwood
B: Nathan Brown, Ben Reid, Heritier O’Brien
HB: Heath Shaw, Nick Maxwell, Marley Williams
C: Steele Sidebottom, Brent Macaffer, Luke Ball
HF: Jamie Elliott, Quinten Lynch, Dane Swan
F: Ben Kennedy, Travis Cloke, Josh Thomas
Foll: Darren Jolly, Scott Pendlebury, Jarryd Blair
Int (from): Kyle Martin, Tim Broomhead, Ben Sinclair, Alan Didak, Paul Seedsman, Sam Dwyer, Adam Oxley

In: S.Dwyer, T.Broomhead, J.Elliott
Out: nil

Western Bulldogs
B: Brett Goodes, Jordan Roughead, Michael Talia
HB: Jason Johannisen, Dale Morris, Dylan Addison
C: Adam Cooney, Matthew Boyd, Jack Macrae
HF: Robert Murphy, Liam Jones, Ryan Griffen
F: Daniel Giansiracusa, Jake Stringer, Luke Dahlhaus
Foll: Will Minson, Tom Liberatore, Nick Lower
Int (from): Lukas Markovic, Liam Picken, Mitch Wallis, Koby Stevens, Clay Smith, Nathan Hrovat, Tom Campbell

In: M.Boyd, A.Cooney, L.Markovic, T.Campbell
Out: T.Williams (shoulder)

After the bye is a good time to bet

BigFootyNews — Thu, 13 Jun 2013 11:12:35 +0000

Usually you get some good value when betting after the bye. Last two years out of the 42 matches when one team was coming off the bye, the team that came off the bye won only 36% of the time. Something punters do not really take into account, in fact some may actually think that a week off is good.

The Hawks are coming off the bye but have won their last nine matches against Carlton. The Blues play their second Friday night match in a row and for the year, while this is the first one for the Hawks. After Sydney’s walloping of the Crows at AAMI last week, the premiership favourite will want to send a message back to the reigning premiers on the big stage. Carlton may do their best to put a fight but the Hawks will put in a four quarter performance and by the final whistle will be well ahead of the -25.5 line offered by Betfair and the bet of the round.

Fremantle this year have beaten the betting lines on no fewer than seven occasions, and have done so in their last five consecutive matches. They are continually underrated as opposed to their opponents the Lions who have only managed to do it on three occasions this year. The Dockers are in red hot form while the Lions have lost four their last five games. Expect a demolishing here with Fremantle to easily cover the -45.5 offered by Luxbet.

Ever since Port’s 5-0 start to the season they have gone off the rails having lost every single game. They have also not beaten a betting line since round six. That is not to say that GWS have done any better, having lost every game this year, but they did give the Cats a bit of shake up at Skoda last week. The margin will not blowout to what bookies think given it is at Skoda again and Port are coming off the bye. GWS with a flying start to the game for the second week in a row and should at the very least be within the +30.5 line offered by Sportsbet.

Adelaide last week were given a royal whack by the reigning premiers, meanwhile the week before Richmond showed they can bounce back from poor a performance the week before. So this week it is the Crows turn and they should get off to a rabid flyer given the Tigers had the week off. Expect the Crows to make it a close one and Sportsbet is offering the best line at +20.5 against a team they beat last year.

The Dogs get some key players back this week and are now on a roll with two wins on a trot. They should not beat the Pies, but Collingwood still have several key players out. Centrebet is offering the best line at +38.5 they should get well within that.

Current Betting Fund: $1,060.50

Total staked so far: $513.50

Carlton v Hawthorn – Handicap (-25.5) – $200 @ $1.94 Betfair

Fremantle v Brisbane Lions –Handicap (-45.5) – $200 @ $1.92 Luxbet

GWS v Port Adelaide –Handicap (+30.5) – $200 @ $1.92 Sportsbet

Richmond v Adelaide –Handicap (+20.5) – $150 @ $1.92 Sportsbet

Collingwod v Western Bulldogs –Handicap (+38.5) – $150 @ $1.92 Centrebet

(Bet is on team in Bold)

Odds correct at time of posting

A Fair Old Stomach Punch

BigFootyNews — Wed, 12 Jun 2013 13:59:38 +0000

For the last ten minutes of the match, I didn’t make a sound.

My face turned like stone.

I waited to explode at the end of the game when we finished triumphant, against the numerous forces against us.

It was taken from me, and 20,000 of my closest friends.

For three quarters, a set of rules and an interpretation of said rules was well established.

Then everything changed. Normally we can expect the rule of the week to be introduced on a Friday night, leaving Bruce and Dennis at their most vocally dexterous in avoiding criticising the hand that feeds them. But this week it happened at the final break, about the time Dean Cox, a man with few causes for complaint anywhere in his life, chatted to the men with OPSM on their backs.

It’s clear to everyone they should have gone to Specsavers.

When you are young and, to be blunt, not very good, you need the little breaks sometimes. You don’t need a great irresistible force pushing against you, erecting insurmountable hurdles for you to will your tired body over.

And boy, were there some tired bodies.

Leigh Montagna almost collapsed before he ran 150 metres to get into the position to miss a shot he should have kicked. He spent all he had, and then a little more.

Beau Maister played what was comfortably his best game for the club, and should have been his most important. When his legs gave way, he became a punchline for the lesser viewer of the game.

Joined in the “best game for the club” group was certainly Trent Dennis-Lane, and possible Jack Newnes and Sam Dunell. Nick Dal Santo played his best game for the year, as did Stephen Milne.

And it was all for a big fat naught.

It will be up to the estimable leadership in the St Kilda playing group to ensure that the kids keep their heads up. Football is unfair at times, just look at the shape of the footy and then talk to Milney. Things start to turn when you improve. You play better opponents, officiated by better umpires. The ball starts to bounce the right way more often, and you’d get to it before it bounces more often than that. But you need to persevere.

But for many of us, a good long weekend was ruined, when the vocal cords were just being warmed up to sing the song. Perhaps in a fortnight, as long as Don McLardy keeps waxing lyrical about Victorian Political History, and not about how much damage Mark Neeld is doing to his footy club.

Women on the verge of a nervous breakdown

BigFootyNews — Wed, 12 Jun 2013 07:30:00 +0000

After three weeks of interrupting the having of a good time to see us get flogged live on TV in hotel rooms on channels like GWN7 where all the ads are for sheds the Melbourne Football Club has ruined my holiday for the last time. Sadly that's because it's over and I'll be back in town tomorrow just in time for the bye.

Frankly I'm not all that concerned at having missed out on the last two MCG games. I'd have been there anyway if I was in town, self-loathing through every minute of it but to have an excuse for missing like being on the other side of the country is too good to miss out on after only missing one match in Victoria over the last three years (Kardinia Park 2012 when I was still too scarred by 186, but I am going back this year if it kills me).

Ironically enough while I was temporarily relocated to various parts of Western Australia, Twitter's @maesy5 was doing the reverse and visiting Melbourne. While there she took her turn on the Progressive Insurance Demonblog Counselling Couch and took out all the frustration of watching us nearly kick one goal in three quarters out on her keyboard. She appears to have made it home afterwards without hijacking the plane to Cuba so it must have worked at least a bit...

Firstly, a shout out to The Guardian newspaper who are apparently such avid readers of Demonblog that turns of phrase used here are regurgitated into the world's third most widely read English language newspaper online. At least they provided a link to their source, something that pretty much every other footy "journalist" fails to do (G'day Cazza & Damo). I look forward to all footy fans jumping on board with the "Carnival of Hate" in the future.

Let's face it, with free agency, it's only a matter of time before every footy fan is betrayed by one of their pimply over-paid under-performing ugly-prick high draft picks. Am I allowed to say "prick"? It was the kindest word I could bring myself to use to describe T. Scully. Yep, still bitter. But sing along with me: "We got Jesse Hogan, we got Jesse Hogan, we got Jesse Hogan....." Anyway. One day soon I can see the day where each team's own "Carnival of Hate" is as big an attraction on the fixture as Anzac Day or Queen's Birthday (ha ha). GWS v Hawthorn in 2014 anyone? At least Buddy helped the Dawks steal a flag first.

So I'm looking forward to more "Demonblog-isms" starting to appear in our national newspapers. #FistedForever may be a bit too wild for the mainstream media, although it is the most accurate meme I have ever come across in my whole entire life. Nothing seems to go right for us. We haven't had any luck go our way since Schwarta did that lovely tap down to Chells who kicked a goal seconds before the siren to steal a win against Adelaide away back in about 2002. Oh the early 2000's. Remember back then when our biggest problem used to be that we were woeful every SECOND year? #FistedEverySecondYear just doesn't have the same ring to it. But nothing sums up our present (by "present" I mean "the last six years but it's too depressing to put it that way - SIX years!") situation as well as #FistedForever.

So if not #FistedForever, then perhaps #sizzle? Although this nickname is becoming a bit ironic as the season progresses. I won't get stuck into Tom though - he's got lots of potential and works his guts out every game so he is the least of our problems.

Ah, problems. The only thing the Melbourne Football Club has plenty of? No members, no money, no star players.... but oodles and oodles of problems. And as soon as we think one of our many problems are solved, #FistedForever appears right on cue. For example The Perfect Man (TM) is injured so we have no one to kick to in the 50. We have drafted Chris Dawes who promptly got injured - but now he's back. And he's starting to play really good footy and making lots of leads and providing a target up forward. Hey #FistedForever, we can't have that! So right on cue, when he's played a quarter of fantastic footy against his old team, ping goes his ankle and Dawes is subbed off leaving us with zero targets in the forward line. #FistedForever.

By "zero" I mean Wattsy doing his usual running around like a headless chook that the opposition knows can be easily countered as he can't take a real contested mark to save himself. Nothing against Jack, he just isn't a CHF. He's going to make a good winger or flanker. Someone that can take a contested mark, first name Jeremy, was played in the midfield most of the game (because god knows we don't have any midfielders like Magner or Couch pottering around Casey collecting oodles of possessions that we could bring into the team, so we HAVE to play our best marking forward anywhere but where we need him to take marks and kick goals). Yes, I'm aware Couch is a rookie and can't be elevated without another LTI - but does anyone really believe that an 8 week Grimesy injury won't turn into 18 weeks on the sidelines? #FistedForever.

Does any reasonable Melbourne supporter think they will ever see the day when the much anticipated team sheet includes the names Clark, Dawes and Hogan in the forward 50? Surely the #FistedForever curse destroys that dream for us too. At least one of them will always be injured, or in jail or dead or something.

Before we get onto the game (can you tell I've been procrastinating as I actually don't really want to talk about it at all) - two confessions that I must admit before you read any further as both should make you wary of anything I have to say about the game. Or anything.

1. I left the game at 3/4 time. I am horrendously embarrassed by this and never left a game early in my whole life until Freo two weeks ago when I left 5 minutes early in disgust at the performance. I live in whoop-whoop, about 4 hours drive from Perth so it's a fairly long trip home from the G. I booked flights on the assumption that being only one game on Queens Birthday it would start around the traditional 2:20pm in the afternoon mark. No, the game started an hour later so the time I had allowed to get back to the airport became a negative number. I deliberated all game as to how close we'd have to be for me to stay for the last quarter and miss my flight. "Close", ha ha. So if I bag any players that suddenly came good in the last quarter or miss anything really exciting that happened in the last quarter you now know why.

2. I was drunk. I went to Walk To The G, found the only people I knew in the crowd at Beer Deluxe and stayed there so long we missed the walk. If we're still this bad next year, the Club should create the alternative "Drink To The G" for those of us over 18. Meet you at Young & Jackson's at 9am and we'll stumble pub to pub from there. Maybe might even make it to the G eventually.

The good

The first quarter. At least we are starting to mix up our "one good quarter", makes life a bit more interesting. Was getting a bit boring knowing that the third quarter was going to be the bad one every single week. Although it was kind of handy as you knew not to rush back to your seat from the bar after half time. In the first quarter we out-tackled the Pies, applied intense and constant pressure, and team mates ran hard to support each other and backed each other up. We had a target at half forward, and we even had the occasional #crumbalert from Davey or Blease. We actually looked like an AFL-standard footy team. Really. I watched the replay of the first quarter I had IQ'd on Fox just to make sure that I wasn't so drunk I hallucinated the entire first quarter in my mind.

Col Garland was fantastic on Cloke against all the odds (height, weight and sheer number of good passes sent in Cloke's direction usually after one of our turn overs). In related news, hopefully someone from Beyond Blue (hello Jeff) has Garlo on suicide watch as I have never seen a player look so down in the dumps. This was the first time I have seen Colin look anything other than stoned off his face (his facial expression only I assure you) so watching him crack it at his inept and lazy team mates as well as throw Cloke face first into the grass in a fit of anger (happy to give away that 50, was totally worth it) was a big deal. I can't imagine how Frawley has lasted so many years playing at full back for us without going postal.

Aaron Davey selling several pieces of candy before slotting a vintage goal was another rare highlight. Also, all the people called Jones. And great to see Trenners regaining some of his form of a few years ago.

Harry O getting his hair pulled did make me giggle. Probably one of the best things Colin Sylvia has done for us his whole career. I do realise that both of these last two sentences make me a horrible person. Feel free to come and pull my hair to make Harry laugh Col. No Col, you don't need a passport to get into WA. Yes, Col, there is a time difference. Oh Col, your poor little brain just exploded. It's ok Col, you're still pretty and you'll still be able to pull the sheilas at Riva. No Col, I'm not bitter at all that you've promised so much and have ever so rarely delivered. (In Col's defence, he was actually ok on Monday in patches).

And Pederson finally showed that he may not have been the worst Moneyball copycat draft pick in the history of the universe.

The bad

The rest of the game.

I'm no expert but I reckon we would have gone pretty close to setting a new world record for number of goals given away to the opposition by our own turnovers. I may be a stupid optimist (or still drunk) but I am starting to wonder what happens when our skills eventually get better and we don't give away all these easy goals from turn overs one day. Without the skill errors the game would have been a hell of a lot closer on Monday. With a few notable exceptions, I thought the effort from the players was ok (although they clearly tired in the second half, when does Misson's grand plan finally pay off for us?). It was our appalling skill level that yet again did us in. Here's another one for you The Guardian - #circusmusic. After the first quarter the MCG sound dude should have played #circusmusic every time we had possession as you could see it only a matter of time before we were going to muck things up so badly that a turnover occurred.

Once Dawes went off we just had no one to kick it to in the forward half.

2013 Allen Jakovich Medal Votes

5 - Colin Garland

4 - Nathan Jones

3 - Matt Jones

2 - Jack Trengove

1 - Dean Terlich

Leaderboard

29 - Nathan Jones

19 - Matt Jones (LEADER: Jeff Hilton Rising Star Award)

14 - Jeremy Howe

12 - Colin Garland (LEADER: Marcus Seecamp Medal for Defender of the Year), Colin Sylvia

11 - Jack Viney

9 - Shannon Byrnes

8 - Dean Terlich

6 - Michael Evans

5 - Aaron Davey, Chris Dawes, Lynden Dunn, Max Gawn (LEADER: Jim Stynes Medal for Ruckman of the Year), Jack Grimes, James Magner, Jack Trengove

4 - James Frawley

2 - Rohan Bail, Mark Jamar

1 - Mitch Clark, Jordie McKenzie, Luke Tapscott

Facebook Watch

I haven't had time to look at the MFC Facebook page since the game but can guess what 99% of the posts are - "SACK EVERYONE!" (with 99% of everyone's names spelled incorrectly). Am I close?

I'm not in the SACK EVERYONE camp as a common mistake made by SACK EVERYONE campaigns is that if you SACK EVERYONE you actually need to hire new people that are better at the jobs that you have just SACKED EVERYONE from. Where on earth are these people? Maybe an experienced coach becomes available at the end of the season - so let's consider the coach issue then. But I don't see any point at all in sacking (eg) the coach unless you have someone who is clearly better at that job to bring in to replace him. Happy to sack Neeld if you can find me someone better. Over to you.

As for SACK EVERYONE on the board, the right place to do that is at the AGM and if you think you are a better candidate then the current board members then by all means put your hand up, nominate yourself and let democracy take its course. Unless your name is Jeff Kennett. If your name is Jeff Kennett, unless you first publicly say that you lied about the stuff you said about us needing to merge with North or the Dogs or us needing to relocate somewhere with better weather than Melbourne (thanks for thinking of our vitamin D intake however) then you can just [redacted] off to the [redacted] hole you [redacted] crawled out of. Remember how you got caught lying about being shot at? Yeah, kind of like that. Oh, AFP, that's not a death threat, it's a history lesson. If anyone thinks they can do a better job than the current board, then publicly put your hand up for consideration and we'll let you know what think by voting for you (or not) at the AGM. Until then, a little bit of unity and one-big-happy-family-it is won't bloody kill us for a few months.

Next week

Bring on the bye next week. I have never been so excited about having a week off from watching my beloved club. If we have to lose by 80, 90 or 100 points most weeks, I don't understand why we just don't play our kids and get the E.X.P.E.R.I.E.N.C.E and N.U.M.B.E.R O.F G.A.M.E.S into them that our coach keeps crapping on about. How he can sit there and trot out the same old stats about how inexperienced we are, without playing the youngsters to give them E.X.P.E.R.I.E.N.C.E I just don't understand. Although I don't want to sack Neeld without a clearly better alternative to make the disruption worthwhile, this doesn't mean I understand what the hell he's trying to achieve most of the time.

Bring in (or keep in) the likes of Couch, Gawn, Tynan, Davis, Kent, Watts, Fitzy, Blease and Toumpas. I'd rather keep losing by 100 points while getting games into our kids than keep losing by 100 points while not getting games into our kids. Also, some consistency in the team might be useful. Stop the 3-4 unforced changes every single week. Yes we need to reward those playing well at Casey, but we also need this young group to play together as a team as often as possible this year. Eventually they might gain some confidence out of this (refer to Gold Coast for what a young inexperienced list playing with a bit of confidence can do, minus the Gazza factor of course as we haven't got one of him, although Jonesy does look a bit like him and carries then entire team a bit like Gazza does...).

Hopefully we have the return of the likes of Frawley, Viney, The Perfect Man (TM) and Grimesy to look forward to as soon as possible after the bye. Adding those four players to any AFL team list would make it a better team - so they can only do our team a world of wonder. And looking forward to 2014, add Hogan and a midfielder purchased with pick 2 (or pick 1, who knows how low we go), get a few more games into Viney, Misson's fitness plan starts to work after another pre-season, we finally learn to do some of the basics like kick and handball and tackle - and just maybe we stop losing by 100 points every single week. A girl can dream.

Thanks for having me. Back to normal transmission from Demonblog Towers for the Saints next game.

Adventure and beer: What else is there?

BigFootyNews — Wed, 12 Jun 2013 01:35:30 +0000

What happens when man is taken from their comfort zone and thrown into a battle against Mother Nature?

Well Heineken would like to find out in their new YouTube series – DROPPED.

Meet the next Bear Grylls; with a twist.

Spanish bartender Rikar Gil’s dream of visiting the sunny tropics are dealt are harsh blow when he is DROPPED in the middle of Alaska by the Heineken team, far from the streets of his home town of Madrid.

Watch as he must battle the elements, a fuzzy grizzly bear, and his wits to survive; all while traveling through the Alaskan wilderness and sharing some very frosty Heineken’s and a few tales with the locals along the way.

In true Bush Tucker Man style, Rikar dons his brand new tuxedo and must learn to survive off what nature provides him, with the aim to find an airport and make his way home.

It’s time to get inspired for your own weekend escapades with Rikar and his inspirational story of triumph; and be sure to wash down the adventure with some oh so sweet Heineken.

To infinity and beyond!

Another guest post is in the oven

BigFootyNews — Tue, 11 Jun 2013 00:29:00 +0000

Just like my head, if you know what I mean. And if you're a Melbourne fan who has watched us for any great length of time you do.

'

As I wrap up the Australian tour which has meant mercifully missing the last two weeks and our various crimes against the sport of Australian Rules Football another special correspondent will be stepping in to provide this week's post - another look at why it's foolish to ever get excited based on one MFC quarter when the light at the end of the tunnel is usually that of an oncoming train.

Keep an eye out on Twitter for when the post goes up, but until then if you really need to read about a loss RIGHT NOW then I invite you to step back into our carefully categorised archives and pick one - they're basically all losses so it shouldn't be all that hard.

Also re-discovered this week, the first (and last) edition of Demonblog Magazine - which is quite frankly just another good excuse to post the photo of Russell Robertson being outmarked by the dog and to get unfairly misty eyed over the memory of Dean Bailey.

I'll be back in town later this week for our annual State of the Union post (spoiler: it's stuffed), but until then please keep in mind that no matter how bad things get that supporting the Melbourne Football Club automatically makes you a good person.

Essendon v Carlton – AFL Round 11, 2013

Spitta2Azza — Fri, 07 Jun 2013 00:40:05 +0000

Gameday w/ chat: http://bit.ly/AFLBombersBluesr11s13

Carlton Board: http://bit.ly/BFCarlton

Essendon Board: http://bit.ly/BFEssendon

Get your tips in!

Essendon: Essendon struggled against Sydney in wet conditions, going in with one too many key position players in most people’s opinions, but there were a few positives like Stanton’s 36 possession games, Jake Carlisle’s influence at both ends of the ground and Heath Hocking’s job on Daniel Hannebery, but a lack of forward structure was evident

Carlton: Thrashed a hapless GWS outfit but let a Callan Ward off the leash with no Andrew Carrazzo, and that may concern Mick Malthouse with Essendon having 4 or 5 players at a similar quality or higher than Ward. Lachie Henderson is showing promise as a key forward for the blues as well, but the fact that they’re playing 3 small forwards, none of whom push up into the midfield, may hamper the blues

Previous encounters: Essendon 1-3 Carlton (1 draw)

Past 5 matches

Essendon: W-L-L-W-L
Carlton: W-L-W-W-W
Essendon forward line vs Carlton defence

Interesting duel. Carlton have generally struggled with sides that have gone in with three tall forwards as one for the most part has gotten away from them with Vickery against Richmond, Hawkins against Geelong, Otten against Adelaide spring to mind, but Essendon’s forward line hasn’t, well, functioned. It’ll be important for Essendon to shut down the run and carry from Walker, who is probably leading Carlton’s B+F count right now.

midfield battle (rucks included)

Where the game is won and lost. Both boast an impressive midfield group on paper, but it’s how they work that’s important. Essendon have the big bodies in Watson, Howlett, Myers, Hocking, Goddard and co, but Carlton have the speed on the outside with Armfield, Lucas, Gibbs and Simpson, so it’s interesting if Essendon try to win the game like they did last year by trying to “beat up” the Carlton midfield

Carlton forward line vs Essendon defence

Carlton are interesting in the way that they play 5 “pure” forwards as well as their second ruckmen, and this could make things easier for the bombers as they thoroughly smashed a side with similar sort of structure in St. Kilda. Baguley and Hibberd will be important in shutting Betts and Garlett down, and either Hardingham or Browne on Yarran. If a side can contain those three to 4 goals or less they’re half way to beating Carlton

X-Factor player

Essendon’s X-Factor for this week is David Zaharakis. He’s fast, smart and has been in career best form so far this season. This guy can break open a game and is just playing pure football at the moment, and has been as good a recruit as Goddard from the second half of 2012.

Levi Casboult is my pick as the X-Factor for the blues. He’s a big lump of a lad, entering his 4th season at Carlton and should really be starting to hit his straps as a player. He could be the key forward Carlton are hoping for to really get them into contention

Key stats for each side

Essendon:
Contested Possessions. Carlton are 1st in CP differential for 2013 and Essendon 3rd, but Essendon can’t let Carlton get it on the outside to Gibbs and Simpson
Effective disposals. Essendon average the highest Effective disposals differential in the AFL. Can’t let the small forwards of Carlton to pressure them too much
Carlton:
Disposal efficiency. Essendon have been the #1 scoring side in the AFL from turnovers so Carlton can’t let them do that
Contested Marks. Carlton average the second fewest Contested marks in the AFL and strong contested marks are crucial to a side
Thanks to eth-dog

Our rivalry was born when Sheedy moved from Richmond to Essendon in 1981, taking his renowned hatred of all things Navy Blue along with him. Sheedy was the architect of many rivalries, notably Richmond with the Dreamtime at the ‘G game, and Collingwood with the ANZAC Day clash. But no other rivalry has ended up playing out on the big Finals stage like this rivalry has.

His ‘Baby Bombers’ stole the precious from us on the last Saturday in September 1993. And after that, we vowed to hates them forever.

We returned the favour in 1999, by 1! One glorious point. No small thanks to the face of Souvlaki Hut, and one supremely ferocious tackle courtesy of one Mr Fraser ‘Leroy’ Brown. “You’d wanna be on the Blues now!”

Proving the gargantuan stature of this rivalry are the historical results. This is no manufactured seat filler. This is the real deal.

32 Premierships won: 16 Carlton, 16 Essendon.
6 Grand Finals contested between the two clubs: 3 wins Carlton, 3 wins Essendon.
20 Finals contested: 10 wins Carlton, 10 wins Essendon.
217 clashes during the regular season. 111 wins Carlton, 101 wins Essendon, 5 draws.
116 years of sheer unadulterated VFL/AFL rivalry.

And so, after our brief trip in the Delorean, we arrive back to the future – and the future, ladies and gentlemen, is football.
Pound for pound, and as much as it pains me to say it, the teams are evenly matched in many areas.

The Goddard effect is in play – he has improved the quality of this side immensely, relegating players like Melksham to being part of the depth chart rather than central cogs in the team. Gumbleton is finally taking strides to becoming a reliable and effective forward target. Bellchambers has taken his ruck work to a new level over the last year and a half. Carlisle is in AA contention after taking some huge scalps and most importantly has rarely had his colours lowered this season. As for Jobe – nothing more to say here. He’s a bona fide champion of the game now.

For the Blues, Walker is in career best form creating drive of half back and influencing the play. Waite is in and back to his damaging best, allowing the Triumvirate of Awesome in Betts, Garlett and Yarran to wreak havoc on opposition defensive lines. Garlett has taken great strides this year, and has become one of our most consistent performers.

Key inclusions, or players I feel might be important

Carrazzo is a must for this game – Carlton are a significantly better side with him in the engine room. Hocking will blanket Murphy, rotating to Judd if he threatens to influence the game. Carrots is an essential inclusion to return the favour and limit the effectiveness of Watson or Zaharakis. But at this stage it is highly doubtful he will be fit enough to play, denting our chances of winning the crucial midfield battle.

Hurley will likely be included should he prove his fitness, but if Gumbleton has a day out against Sydney it will be a difficult decision for the Essendon match committee. Essendon’s list management team will struggle to keep Gumbleton, Hurley, Ryder and Daniher on the same playing roster in the long term.

How it will play out, or what I reckon will happen

Without Carrazzo, the result will rest on the shoulders of an inexperienced engine room. Look for Curnow to go with Stanton and Cachia to sit on Watson or Zaharakis. Both teams are guaranteed to lift for this clash, and literally anything is possible.

Essendon’s drive off half back must be nullified, and of all teams in the competition we have the ability to not only restrict them but to score a significant victory in this area. Eddie will be cherry ripe and hungry, Yarran will have some run in his legs, and Jeff will relish having the band back together.

Essendon’s tall targets will need to contribute significantly to a winning score. Crameri poses a big threat to us and White will have his work cut out for him to contain his influence on the outcome.
Thanks to Azzurro

Essendon
Vote on Facebook ->

B: Mark Baguley, Dustin Fletcher, Michael Hibberd
HB: Brendon Goddard, Cale Hooker, Dyson Heppell
C: Brent Stanton, Jobe Watson, Ben Howlett
HF: Jake Melksham, Michael Hurley, Alwyn Davey
F: David Zaharaki, Joe Daniher, Nick Kommer
Foll: Patrick Ryder, David Myers, Heath Hocking
Int: Will Hams, Jake Carlisle, Stewart Crameri, Jason Winderlich
Emerg: Tom Bellchambers, Leroy Jetta, Kyle Hardingham
In: A.Davey, B.Howlett, M.Hurley, J.Daniher
Out: C.Dempsey (ribs), L.Jetta, S.Gumbleton (ankle), T.Bellchambers

Carlton
Vote on Facebook ==>
B: Mitch Robinson, Michael Jamison, Lachie Henderson
HB: Zach Tuohy, Dennis Armfield, Simon White
C: Chris Yarran, Chris Judd, Kade Simpson
HF: Ed Curnow, Andrew Walker, Jeff Garlett
F: Brock McLean, Jarrad Waite, Matthew Kreuzer
Foll: Levi Casboult, Marc Murphy, Heath Scotland
Int: Bryce Gibbs, Kane Lucas, Eddie Betts, Jaryd Cachia
Emerg: Josh Bootsma, Troy Menzel, Sam Rowe
In: C.Judd, E.Betts, K.Lucas
Out: T.Menzel, T.Bell, J.Bootsma