View Full Version : Collingwood game is a must win
Poet from Port
16 Aug 2004, 12:27
Without getting too far ahead of ourselves (which has usually been the case with Port the last few years) I think it is important to highlight "on paper" how important this week's game is.
Let's begin by stating that the top four is settled and the bottom four (of the Top 8) results are therefore not relevant to the first week of finals. It will be a combination of us, lions, saints and cats. The only unknown is the order...
Remaining games...
Saint Kilda
V Lions................Loss
V Fremantle..........Win
Port
V Collingwood........Loss or Win
V Crows...............Win
Brisbane
V St Kilda..............Win
V Kangaroos..........Win
Geelong
V Adelaide.............Win
V Hawthorn...........Win
Using my handy Ladder Predictor, and assuming that the only doubtful game is Port v Collingwood, the resulting top four is as follows.
Scenario One: Port beat Collingwood > Ladder Rnd 22
1. Port
2. St Kilda (Brisbane...depending on percentage)
3. Brisbane (St Kilda...depending on percentage)
4. Geelong
Scenario Two: Collingwood beat Port > Ladder Rnd 22
1. Brisbane (St Kilda, Port...depending on percentage)
2. St Kilda (Brisbane, Port...depending on percentage)
3. Port (Brisbane, St Kilda...depending on percentage)
4. Geelong
Summation
Scenario One: Port beat Collingwood
If we beat the pies this week (and beat the crows as we should) then we should have top spot (assuming the saints lose to the lions). We would therefore play geelong in the first final. I did write previously that I fear geelong have the ability to "Do A" collingwood or a sydney in the first week of finals, but one thing is for sure, if we do meet them in the first final there will be no complacency as they will be the form team of the competition and it will be one almighty game.
Scenario Two: Collingwood beat Port
The second scenario is a nightmare situation. If all games go as expected, and we happen to lose to the pies, the Top three (assuming Geelong don't get a massive percentage boost at some stage) will be any combination of Port, Lions and Saints. We could in effect be condemned to a First Final at the Gabba (ouch) with the Lions tails up. The only thing in our favour, if we lose to the pies and the lions beat the saints, is that we will know how much we need to beat the crows by on the last day of the minor round to get top spot.
Conclusion
We need to beat the pies this week (and lions beat saints) for us to have control over our destiny leading into the finals. Otherwise we may be playing the lions at the gabba or saints at the MCG (preferable).....
portentous
16 Aug 2004, 14:04
Irrespective of all that, winning form is good form going into finals. Also I'm sure that lads won't need any extra motivation given who our opposition is in the next 2 weeks.
PJ Power
16 Aug 2004, 15:52
While the outcome is vital to our final standing on the ladder, I think this match will tell us alot about where we stand as a genuine finals contender.
Observations:
1. We don't play well at MCG.
2. We have a habit of finding it hard to account for Collingwood. Even when we win, we play an awkward and frustrating style of footy, and the margins are closer than they should be. This is even when Collingwood have players missing - eg earlier this year.
3. Most of the other true flag contenders have accounted comfortably for Collingwood: Brisbane (repeatedly), Geelong, St Kilda, Essendon and Melbourne (albeit in a close game).
4. Collingwood's midfielders seem to dominate clearance battles against us.
To some extent we still struggle against certain sides, even with our perceived tinkering of structure and gameplan.
Geelong worried the hell out of us in Adelaide, earlier this year (although we were without Carr, P. Burgoyne, Monty and Kingers).
The Kangas smashed us.
Melbourne fixed us up at the G.
Collingwood jumped out of the blocks against us in round 6 and then didn't allow us to run away with the game.
If we have improved to the level of being a genuine premiership chance, I would like to think that we will treat Collingwood with the same disdain that the other top4 sides have done this year.
There should be no tricks or traps against them.
Lonie, Lokan, Shaw, Leon Davis, Didak don't play that well against the Lions or Essendon, so why should they be a threat to us?
Clearly our midfield will need to play with the authority that they have shown in the last fortnight.
Someone will need to play very well to kick goals against Clement.
There is alot riding on this game, beyond our final finishing position.
This is the game that will shed light on our mental readiness for the finals. Not just the result, but the manner in which we go about it.
Jars458
16 Aug 2004, 16:10
Crows will beat Port. Read it here first.
dyertribe
16 Aug 2004, 16:11
Crows will beat Port. Read it here first.
Who did you tip last time?
PJ Power
16 Aug 2004, 16:13
Crows will beat Port. Read it here first.
Wouldn't be surprised. But it would not be the end of the world. Another wake-up call might be the tonic for a powerful finals campaign.
Winning showdowns has never correlated that well with finals' success.
Wouldn't be surprised. But it would not be the end of the world. Another wake-up call might be the tonic for a powerful finals campaign.
Winning showdowns has never correlated that well with finals' success.
I was hoping the first loss to the Crows would be a wake up...
Jars458
16 Aug 2004, 17:49
Who did you tip last time?
Crows. :D
Macca19
16 Aug 2004, 18:10
Crows will beat Port. Read it here first.
Youre probably right too!!
These next two weeks are extremely tough. We play our two biggest rivals who would love nothing more than to ruin our finals chances.
I wouldnt be too surprised if we lost these next two games. Crows will wanna do to us what we did to them last year.
We could still miss out on a double chance if we arent careful.
If we win two games we will finish top. If we win we are still a chance to finish top if Brisbane beat St Kilda.
It will be an interesting next two weeks thats for sure
rubberman
16 Aug 2004, 22:25
We need to win this game in a style that will send a message of what this team is out to achieve.
Paralowiepower
16 Aug 2004, 22:56
I disagree, I could not care less if we beat Collingwood or not. As long as we don't get any more injuries. We only need to win 1 of our last two IMO to finish top two. ( I do understand it is mathamatical to drop to 3rd but I don't think that will happen.) Our main priority has to be the first final, that is the only must win game in the next three weeks. Sure it would be nice to win at the G, but I would swap it all for a win first week of finals. Let's not make the same mistake when we beat the Lions Rd 22 two years ago.
Sandola
17 Aug 2004, 10:37
I disagree, I could not care less if we beat Collingwood or not. As long as we don't get any more injuries. We only need to win 1 of our last two IMO to finish top two. ( I do understand it is mathamatical to drop to 3rd but I don't think that will happen.) Our main priority has to be the first final, that is the only must win game in the next three weeks. Sure it would be nice to win at the G, but I would swap it all for a win first week of finals. Let's not make the same mistake when we beat the Lions Rd 22 two years ago.
I would love to see us play a game against Collingwood similar to last week's game. We wouldn't win by as much, probably, but it would be a huge statement on the eve of the finals.
The same controlled intensity -- determination rather than wild desperation; skills -- great decision-making and excellent execution; teamwork and persistence right to the end. Cop that Collingwood. Cop that MCG.
Don't want to see any injuries either, but I don't think you can really control the danger of injuries once you're in a game, no matter how you play.
I would love to see us play a game against Collingwood similar to last week's game. We wouldn't win by as much, probably, but it would be a huge statement on the eve of the finals.
The same controlled intensity -- determination rather than wild desperation; skills -- great decision-making and excellent execution; teamwork and persistence right to the end. Cop that Collingwood. Cop that MCG.
Don't want to see any injuries either, but I don't think you can really control the danger of injuries once you're in a game, no matter how you play.
Exactly going in worried about injuries will see us lose. The same finals losers mentality that has haunted for a couple of seasons.
I would like to see us kick a goal like the one from the kick out with 20 linked handpasses down the middle with Dewy finishing off to kick his 5th.
None of the next two games matter if we win the first final. We won't drop out of the top 4. You think Brisbane care that they have lost two games and struggled against Hawthorn? They are probably being flogged on the training track to prepare for the finals.
Poet from Port
17 Aug 2004, 11:27
None of the next two games matter if we win the first final.
True, and all great in theory, but it is also obvious that if we have somehow overcome our perceived mental weakness when it comes to the first final, it will come to nothing if we find we are scheduled to play the toughest assignment in football in that first week...Lions at the Gabba.
The level of probability for a win in the first final drops as we descend the list of possible assignments below. The last on the list is “near on” impossible and will most probably condemn us to playing each week of the final series (if we are good enough) even with any resulting improvement in attitude and game-plan.
Port V St Kilda/Geelong...AAMI
Port V Brisbane..............AAMI
Geelong V Port...............MCG
St Kilda V Port...............MCG
Brisbane V Port..............Gabba
Again, not wishing to get too far ahead of ourselves, but with all things equal it would be a great challenge to meet Brisbane at AAMI (close to unbeatable at Gabba or MCG) at any stage of the finals. If we were able to win such a game it would further enhance ANY CHANCE of us taking out the big one.
DISCLAMER: ALL VIEWS EXPRESSED HERE ARE DONE SO AS HYPOTHETICALS. IT IS NOT THE AUTHORS ASSERTION THAT SUCH THINGS WILL HAPPEN AS THIS LITTLE BLACK DUCK TAKES NOTHING FOR GRANTED.......TAKING IT ONE WEEK AT A TIME.... ;)
Jars458
17 Aug 2004, 11:28
Youre probably right too!!
These next two weeks are extremely tough. We play our two biggest rivals who would love nothing more than to ruin our finals chances.
I wouldnt be too surprised if we lost these next two games. Crows will wanna do to us what we did to them last year.
We could still miss out on a double chance if we arent careful.
If we win two games we will finish top. If we win we are still a chance to finish top if Brisbane beat St Kilda.
It will be an interesting next two weeks thats for sure
Macca talking down Port in a Showdown?? Who would have thought it...... ;)
Porthos
17 Aug 2004, 11:30
Oh my god.....if we lose every game for the rest of the year
WE WON'T WIN THE PREMIERSHIP
dyertribe
17 Aug 2004, 11:54
Crows. :D
Nine in ten psychologists say subliminal messages are ineffective.
Mitch Power
17 Aug 2004, 15:54
Conclusion
We need to beat the pies this week (and lions beat saints) for us to have control over our destiny leading into the finals. Otherwise we may be playing the lions at the gabba or saints at the MCG (preferable).....
Poet, I agree with you 100% - we need to secure a top 2 position so it is vital that we beat collingwood and/or the crows over the next 2 weeks. Your scenario 1 is I believe the most probable and also appealing to me. It would mean that Port play geelong and saints play brisbane (in melbourne) in the first week.
I think the saints will beat the lions and with our share of luck we should start favourites against the cats. Again, if all the favourites win in week 2, we would then meet brisbane at football park with the prize a grand final.
If we are any sort of premiership threat, we should all look forward to a crack at home against the team I consider to stand between us and a premiership. I am probably getting ahead of my self but if we have to play brisbane, you would want to play them in a preliminary final here.
The most appealing scenario is somehow Brisbane get knocked out of the top 4 and it is us and 3 other victorian sides. That means the MCG contract won't be an issue. The 2nd best is if Brisbane come down here to play us.
I would be reasonably confident if that occured.
portentous
17 Aug 2004, 17:17
The most appealing scenario is that we win the flag. I don't care what happens in the meantime......