View Full Version : Will Richmond win a premiership within the next 10 seasons?
Hammerfire
18 Dec 2004, 18:31
Will Richmond win a premiership within the next 10 seasons?
Harry Bosch
18 Dec 2004, 18:54
the question should be will we go back to back..
Hammerfire
18 Dec 2004, 18:54
Probably a poll better suited for a neutral forum, but for aruments sake thought i'd put it here.
Btw if anyone votes no, please give a reason why.
Coughlan
18 Dec 2004, 18:56
Yes we will
No we must wait for the trolls to arrive
Hammerfire
18 Dec 2004, 19:01
Diggler is the only Richmond-based troll i know of, and he spends most of his net time on PRE.
Opposition supporter comments welcomed, but please no trolls!
Darth_Tiger
18 Dec 2004, 20:02
yes - i damn well hope so!
Punt_Road_Roar
18 Dec 2004, 20:31
I would love to say YES but I just dont want to jinx us so i wont vote in this poll
:D
well if we didnt it would be very, very sad :(
bluehouse
18 Dec 2004, 21:11
sooner than we may think.
the merge/bankruptcy options were a little melodramatic
do you think carlton were ever going to fold?
Far worse position than us financially
Thrice3
18 Dec 2004, 22:22
I think not..honestly.
In 94 ' did you think that we would win a premiership within the next 10 years?
Richmond hasnt done anything good in my lifetime as a suppoter, besides 95 and 01 finals.
GhostofJimJess
18 Dec 2004, 22:33
Statistically speaking, I'd reckon we are about a 50/50 chance of winning a flag during the next 10 years. Given that there's 16 teams, even allowing for all teams to be equal suggests that a club would only win once every 16 years.
At Richmond, I'd suggest we are about a mid-level club. The power teams like West Coast, Adelaide, Collingwood, Essendon and Carlton are slightly more likely to win a flag at about 1/12, with the likes of Port, Sydney, Brisbane, Richmond and Hawthorn in the next tier of 1/16.
The Saints, Freo, Melbourne, Geelong, Roos and Bulldogs would traditionally be slightly below the average at about 1/20, due to a myriad of factors. Obviously the Saints and Cats, given recent draft concessions and other recruiting coups appear to be on the cusp of their 'moment'.
But from a purely subjective point of view, course we'll bloody well win one !!
Hammerfire
19 Dec 2004, 00:14
sooner than we may think.
the merge/bankruptcy options were a little melodramatic
do you think carlton were ever going to fold?
Far worse position than us financially
Not melodramatic, i just don't like doing "yes and no" polls.
I doubt any richmond supporter would vote for those options anyway.
madtiger2005
19 Dec 2004, 08:48
we are due for a couple, so I'd say YES :D
If you don`t vote yes then why are you bothering , go and support the bulldogs
Truetiger
19 Dec 2004, 10:59
lol we can only hope but over all what are the chances.
Hammerfire
19 Dec 2004, 11:05
If you don`t vote yes then why are you bothering , go and support the bulldogs
Well not really, as this is a "Do you think they WILL" rather than a "Do you WANT them to" poll!
cairo tiger
19 Dec 2004, 19:09
in 3 years we will be apreinership htreat in 4 we will win one
cairo tiger
19 Dec 2004, 19:10
in 3 years we will be apreinership htreat in 4 we will win one
Well not really, as this is a "Do you think they WILL" rather than a "Do you WANT them to" poll!Why would you enter a race if you did not think you could win it ?
I do not think we can win a flag in the next three years until we have completly de-spudded this club but after that ....... why not ?
In life hammer , you have to think you can do anything you set out to do , or you end up doing nothing .
This club will win flags again , we will get it right , it will be within 10 years .
As i said , if you think otherwise , go and support someone else
Why would you enter a race if you did not think you could win it ?
I do not think we can win a flag in the next three years until we have completly de-spudded this club but after that ....... why not ?
In life hammer , you have to think you can do anything you set out to do , or you end up doing nothing .
This club will win flags again , we will get it right , it will be within 10 years .
As i said , if you think otherwise , go and support someone else
Spot on!!!!!!
Hammerfire
19 Dec 2004, 22:02
Our good friend Weaver voted no, please explain.
GhostofJimJess
19 Dec 2004, 22:37
As i said , if you think otherwise , go and support someone else
What if I think they're not going to win either ?!
Bentleigh
19 Dec 2004, 23:10
Our good friend Weaver voted no, please explain.
Hes just a pessmistic bastard. :p
Piping Shrike
20 Dec 2004, 07:38
Statistically speaking, I'd reckon we are about a 50/50 chance of winning a flag during the next 10 years. Given that there's 16 teams, even allowing for all teams to be equal suggests that a club would only win once every 16 years.
At Richmond, I'd suggest we are about a mid-level club. The power teams like West Coast, Adelaide, Collingwood, Essendon and Carlton are slightly more likely to win a flag at about 1/12, with the likes of Port, Sydney, Brisbane, Richmond and Hawthorn in the next tier of 1/16.
The Saints, Freo, Melbourne, Geelong, Roos and Bulldogs would traditionally be slightly below the average at about 1/20, due to a myriad of factors. Obviously the Saints and Cats, given recent draft concessions and other recruiting coups appear to be on the cusp of their 'moment'.
But from a purely subjective point of view, course we'll bloody well win one !!
I tend to work it out thus, based on the current competition structure:
Non-Vic teams will win 6 out of every 10.
Carl, Coll, Ess will win 2 out of every 10.
Hence Rich and other teams compete for 2 out of 10, which I think makes it 1 flag every 35 years.
Given Richmond tends to focus more on blaming people, sacking people, board challenges, etc I'd put our chances at one every 70 years.
Bentleigh
20 Dec 2004, 08:51
Given Richmond tends to focus more on blaming people, sacking people, board challenges, etc I'd put our chances at one every 70 years.
One in every 70...
Kind of throws out our history of 10 VPL and 2 VFA flags then eh?
Piping Shrike
20 Dec 2004, 10:05
Shows that Richmond did quite well when it was part of those competitions.
we have Plough now,
we'll win one within 5 :cool:
Showbag
20 Dec 2004, 10:27
I don't believe we will win a premiership within the next 10 years. I believe that we are too far from being united off the field that we cannot expect to challenge the top sides on the field. Our recruiting has yet to be proven one way or the other, while there is a lot of hype, results may take a lot of time and the pressure can be a little bit too much- ask Aaron Fiora. We will certainly make finals, but too much has to go right in the one season for us to win the flag.
Bentleigh
20 Dec 2004, 10:28
Shows that Richmond did quite well when it was part of those competitions.
Those?
VFL is the AFL...
VFL flags dont count?
LarryLong
20 Dec 2004, 10:56
No is such a horrible way to vote. Couldn't you had made it "No, but I hope they can" :)
Just trying to be completely logical. I just think the odds are against Richmond winning a flag in the next 10 years if you consider the fact that many clubs currently have the wood over us in the areas of finance, stability and the ability of their playing list. Sure, we have the makings of a good side in our draftees, but it isn't like any of our kids have been proven to be better than everybody else's promising kids. Nobody ever won a flag in the pre-season.
We're not the only club recruiting for the future, and some of the sides currently in rebuilding mode probably rate themselves a much bigger chance than Richmond. Geelong and St Kilda are a couple of years ahead of us and I don't think those sides are certainties for a flag in the next ten years either. Essendon and Carlton will probably come back towards the top soon. West Coast and maybe even Adelaide will join the fray in 3-5 years, while Port and Brisbane look set for long stretches at the top. Collingwood has far too much cash to discount as well, but Jason Cloke should keep them out of the finals for a few years yet. :D
Still, I firmly believe we have some finals years to look forward to in 3-5 years' time if the cards fall correctly, and I'll be more than happy with that after what I've been watching lately. Win the flag and I'll be over the moon, I'll eat humble pie until I'm ready to spew.
Bentleigh
20 Dec 2004, 10:58
than everybody else's promising kids. .
Saints did last year, Hayes forgot to smile :p
Piping Shrike
20 Dec 2004, 11:02
Those past premierships count in the history books. For my part the two most "recent" ones were even good to watch in person.
However, they don't effect my opinion on the odds of teams like Richmond winning future premierships under the current competition structure.
goal_umpire
20 Dec 2004, 11:29
I voted no.
Unless the tigers can get more youth into their line ups and change their old game plan they will fail to win a premiership altogether.
Bentleigh
20 Dec 2004, 11:32
Tigerland,
Two words for you - Wooden Spoon. That's where you guys will be headed. Unless you get a change of game plan and a change of players, you won't win many games.
change of game plan
*tick*
and a change of players
*tick*
What if I think they're not going to win either ?!Imagine Brett Delidio and Richard Tambling thought we could not win a flag :confused:
I think that anyone who votes no misses the whole essence of what competetive sport is all about .
I understand that a few of you are anilyzing the B-jesus out of this with stats and the current situation and what not but a positive mind set is the first step
LarryLong
20 Dec 2004, 13:26
I understand that a few of you are anilyzing the B-jesus out of this with stats and the current situation and what not but a positive mind set is the first step
I'm pretty sure that my mind set will have very little influence on the performance of the Richmond side in the next ten years.
Positive energy from fans counts for very little. Look how much good the roar meter did. ;)
Punt_Road_Roar
20 Dec 2004, 13:46
I voted no.
Unless the tigers can get more youth into their line ups and change their old game plan they will fail to win a premiership altogether.
Unless you grow a brain, I doubt very much you could make another worthwhile post again.
more youth? LOL had a turn over of 19 players in 2 seasons the majority of them are kids
Archibald
Raines
Roach
Hartigan
Coughlan (been on our list a few years but is still a kid)
Schulz
Jackson
Gilmore
Newman (same as Cogs)
They are all youth !!!!!
TAMBLING
Deledio
Meyer
Pattison
Polo
just to name a few more
your arguement lacks substance
old game plan? New coach idiot! you know the guy the hawks wanted but deny so they dont feel so bad? u know Tezza !?!?!?! ring a bell? LOL
your post is a year 2 late, perhaps next season you could talk about Richmond making a 2.2 million dollar loss. :D
Funny how many Hawthorn supporters all of a sudden have their 2 cents worth to add regarding Richmond, it wouldnt be because We got Wallace and Tambling before them by any chance? Jealousy is really a curse
Have fun next season with your new coach what's his name? :D
Hammerfire
20 Dec 2004, 14:07
I voted no.
Unless the tigers can get more youth into their line ups and change their old game plan they will fail to win a premiership altogether.
That is one of the most ill informed post i have read on this board in a long while!!
23 - Tuck
23 - Pettifer
23 - Coughlan
22 - Newman
22 - Hyde
22 - Krakouer
21 - Rodan
21 - Moore
20 - Hartigan
20 - Schulz
19 - Roach
19 - Foley (R)
19 - Archibald
19 - Pattison
19 - Raines
18 - Thursfield (R)
18 - Jackson
18 - Gilmour
18 - Meyer
18 - Polo
18 - Limbach
18 - Tambling
17 - McGuane
17 - Deledio
That's 24 players on our list aged 23 and under.
Not to mention we have a whole new coaching staff.
Your stupidity rivals that of a HHQ member.
I'm pretty sure that my mind set will have very little influence on the performance of the Richmond side in the next ten years.
Positive energy from fans counts for very little. Look how much good the roar meter did. ;)Positive energy from supporters dosen`t count for much ? That post is up there with the goal umpires for mine
I suppose home ground advantages are just a w..k as well ?
Whatever , if you want to just rock up to the g thinking who cares , we`re not going to win anyway then that`s your perogative
LarryLong
20 Dec 2004, 15:59
Positive energy from supporters dosen`t count for much ? That post is up there with the goal umpires for mine
I suppose home ground advantages are just a w..k as well ?
Whatever , if you want to just rock up to the g thinking who cares , we`re not going to win anyway then that`s your perogative
You missed my point.
My point was that I can state (especially on an internet discussion board) that I don't think Richmond will win a flag in the next ten years with absolutely no negative effect on the side's performance. You made it sound like anybody who didn't vote Yes in this poll was lacking support and letting the side down in some kind of fundamental way. Its not as if the poll asked "Do you barrack for Richmond".
How I act when I'm supporting the team at the game is a different matter entirely. :)
You missed my point.
My point was that I can state (especially on an internet discussion board) that I don't think Richmond will win a flag in the next ten years with absolutely no negative effect on the side's performance. You made it sound like anybody who didn't vote Yes in this poll was lacking support and letting the side down in some kind of fundamental way. Its not as if the poll asked "Do you barrack for Richmond".
How I act when I'm supporting the team at the game is a different matter entirely. :)Fair enough , but it would not be very pleasent getting around for next ten years genuinely thinking that we did not have a hope , but i guess for the older brigade of Richmond supporters we have had to lower our sights so that when we do bottom out it is not such a let down .
I was not saying that your opinion voiced on this forum is going to effect the teams performance , what i am saying is that if we are ever going to reach the Holy Grail , the whole club , from the president , to the boot-studders , including the supporters , have to believe that you can do it . And other than the short term ( excepting the next 2 -3 years ) I do not see why we can`t do it .Both Brisbane and Port came from rabble to premiers in the space of 5 - 6 years . Be Positive
Darth_Tiger
20 Dec 2004, 19:40
i would go one step further idgaf, im sure some players sometimes check out this and other fan sites, how would you feel if you were a player at the club and you read how many fans did not believe in you? i reckon it would make a difference. some of you will probably say that is a stupid thing to think, but positive attitudes are infectious. in any case i would rather think we will win a flag within 10 years and be wrong than have no hope for the future.
GhostofJimJess
20 Dec 2004, 21:45
Fair enough , but it would not be very pleasent getting around for next ten years genuinely thinking that we did not have a hope , but i guess for the older brigade of Richmond supporters we have had to lower our sights so that when we do bottom out it is not such a let down .
I'm with Larry on this one, ID.
An analogy ... my friend recently calculated that the odds of winning 1st division of Tattslotto over the next 10 years, given that he gets exactly one quick-pick per week, was something in the range of 10,000 to 1.
Do you think this will prevent him from outlaying something like $5000 in that same period of time in such a seemingly fruitless quest? Hell no.
And the funny thing is that despite his number crunching, every draw he's quietly confident that this week will be the big one ...
People bet on 50-1 horses every day!! Not because they have a wealth of loose change to dispose of, but because they genuinely fancy their chances ... as if they are somehow more special than the hordes of other schneds out there.
Just because a few of us are prepared to present the cold, hard numbers attached to it all, it doesn't mean that we don't harbour at least the saem desire for success as the eternal optimists of the world.
And another thing ... if players do read this board, and they drop their bottom lip over a few posts here and there which don't mindlessly worship their every step, then they - and we - are in deeper shyte than we thought.
Darth_Tiger
20 Dec 2004, 22:08
not saying it would upset them ghost. just think that the more people who believe in you the taller you walk, i dont think the players would be immune to that. not saying im right or wrong on this, just a thought is all.
Wacky Tiger
21 Dec 2004, 20:25
God i hope so!!!!
TrewTIGER
21 Dec 2004, 20:34
I suggest that if you dont think this, lock yourself up with an elderly magpie supporter and at 5:15 am every morning you can stand facing the East and worshipping a faded picture of Fast Eddie . . . as the Mornning Sun rises so does the . . .
I'm with Larry on this one, ID.
An analogy ... my friend recently calculated that the odds of winning 1st division of Tattslotto over the next 10 years, given that he gets exactly one quick-pick per week, was something in the range of 10,000 to 1.
Do you think this will prevent him from outlaying something like $5000 in that same period of time in such a seemingly fruitless quest? Hell no.
And the funny thing is that despite his number crunching, every draw he's quietly confident that this week will be the big one ...
People bet on 50-1 horses every day!! Not because they have a wealth of loose change to dispose of, but because they genuinely fancy their chances ... as if they are somehow more special than the hordes of other schneds out there.
Just because a few of us are prepared to present the cold, hard numbers attached to it all, it doesn't mean that we don't harbour at least the saem desire for success as the eternal optimists of the world.
And another thing ... if players do read this board, and they drop their bottom lip over a few posts here and there which don't mindlessly worship their every step, then they - and we - are in deeper shyte than we thought.I guess we are just looking at it from two different mind sets , both with thier own logic and sensibility ........... but ........... i would not want any of the 38 or so on our list having your view .......... would you ?
And i am not saying that you would not give your left nut , just as the bulk of us would (who could ) to see us win the flag . I think any of us who spend thier summer evenings wiling away the hours ,talking footy on the net are pretty fair dinkum about our club .I am just on my own little personal crusade at the minute , whereby instead of being monotonously cynical towards our great institution ,i am attempting to adopt a policy of belief in our club that we can actually do it . It`s hard i know and when it all goes pear shaped i know i will be the first one to jump ship and start sinking the boots in but for now,........ i am giving it a go
We will do it in ten ............ actualy , i reckon 5-6
( PS love your Avitar Ghost )
doggies
22 Dec 2004, 22:23
Probably a poll better suited for a neutral forum, but for aruments sake thought i'd put it here.
Btw if anyone votes no, please give a reason why.
ummm, because your club sucks balls.
Bentleigh
23 Dec 2004, 09:49
doggies
Club: bulldogs
ummm, because your club sucks balls.
Pffft.
Joke of a club. St Kilda like :rolleyes:
An analogy ... my friend recently calculated that the odds of winning 1st division of Tattslotto over the next 10 years, given that he gets exactly one quick-pick per week, was something in the range of 10,000 to 1.
Odds (per game) are 1 in 8,145,060
45x44x43x42x41x40
--------------------
6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1
(for what it's worth).