View Full Version : Will he or wont he ?
Arsene Wenger
9 Aug 2005, 13:18
I understand that this may have been done to death but Will Tredrea be all Australian CHF or will it go to Pavlich.? Tredders has more marks and goals whic are probably the key indicators. For me he is in the side but you never know with these selectors. Of course there are 3 rounds to go but I am saying up until this point --
Thoughts -- ?
Wayne Carey seemed to think he would be in at the start of the Carlton game.
If he continues to kick 3+ goals a game, he's a chance. He's not flavour of the year, but there aren't very many other plausible contenders, so he's a possibility. If there is anyone else who ends up roughly equal to him, that other person will get it this year.
(Would he get it right now? I think it would go to Pavlich.)
Given extended injuries to Brown and Reiwoldt the field has somewhat narrowed this year.
It's really down to Hall, Tredrea and Pavlich. On stats its :
Hall - 60 goals (3rd), 146 marks (4th), 14.7 disposals per game
Tredrea - 56 goals (4th), 168 marks (1st), 16.3 disposals per game
Pavlich -54 goals (5th), 164 marks (2nd), 17.4 disposals per game
Not a lot between them in any category. The other one I couldn't find that would be valid is goal assists.
Given all three are pretty even I'd imagine Pavlich and Hall to get the AA call-up, purely based on Tredrea not having many good games away from AAMI (admittedly that's the midfields fault mostly). Still with it so close he has his chance to push past the other two in the last three rounds. Round 22 could be the clincher. If Tredders dominates and we hold Pavlich out he could sneak in again.
portentous
9 Aug 2005, 15:22
The best thing about Pavlich is that he's versatile therefore the AA selectors might pick him in a position OTHER than CHF. I'd reckon Reiwoldt is more of a threat personally.
crazy_big_al
9 Aug 2005, 15:37
The best thing about Pavlich is that he's versatile therefore the AA selectors might pick him in a position OTHER than CHF. I'd reckon Reiwoldt is more of a threat personally.
Nat revot has missed 6 weeks with his shoulder
cant be considered
portentous
9 Aug 2005, 15:41
Nat revot has missed 6 weeks with his shoulder
cant be considered
Maybe but he is the Victorian football media's "pinup boy" make no mistake. Would not surprise me AT ALL if he's picked.
Given extended injuries to Brown and Reiwoldt the field has somewhat narrowed this year.
It's really down to Hall, Tredrea and Pavlich. On stats its :
Hall - 60 goals (3rd), 146 marks (4th), 14.7 disposals per game
Tredrea - 56 goals (4th), 168 marks (1st), 16.3 disposals per game
Pavlich -54 goals (5th), 164 marks (2nd), 17.4 disposals per game
Not a lot between them in any category. The other one I couldn't find that would be valid is goal assists.
Given all three are pretty even I'd imagine Pavlich and Hall to get the AA call-up, purely based on Tredrea not having many good games away from AAMI (admittedly that's the midfields fault mostly). Still with it so close he has his chance to push past the other two in the last three rounds. Round 22 could be the clincher. If Tredders dominates and we hold Pavlich out he could sneak in again.
All things considered, you'd think 2 of these would start on the field and the third to get a spot on the bench. That'd make the AA bench,
- the second ruckman (possibly Everitt ?)
- the third of these lot (I'd say Hall), and
- 2 running players.
I think you could squeeze Pavlich and Tredrea in the same starting 18. Both have been outstanding in their own right.
crazy_big_al
9 Aug 2005, 15:58
he should but i am not sure about it
the pav has been getting alot of hype this year
missionpossible
9 Aug 2005, 16:55
It's really down to Hall, Tredrea and Pavlich. On stats its :
Hall - 60 goals (3rd), 146 marks (4th), 14.7 disposals per game
Tredrea - 56 goals (4th), 168 marks (1st), 16.3 disposals per game
Pavlich -54 goals (5th), 164 marks (2nd), 17.4 disposals per game
I think they will select three talls in the forward line. The only other competitors are J.Brown but he would have to come back soon and play some big games and the other is from slightly left field from a bottom team this guy has kicked just under 50 goals so far and I would be interested to see his stats and I am referring to the bomber forward in scott lucas
looking at those stats, it's pretty even, and hence with Tredders being the defending AA CHF and the CHF for a few years now, i think with that in mind, Tredders will get it.. assuming the above trend continues
HOwever the selectors love pavlich and have always managed to get him in the team somehow, so i wouldn't at all be surprised to see pav named.
I don't think Hall will make it, simply due to lakc of media hype for him
These are what I see as being the key factors for the All-Australian selectors, all of whom I believe work in the media
AGAINST WARREN
* Port haven't played well
* He hasn't dominated an important Victorian side in Victoria
* Gee, we really like Pavlich this year
* Are you sure we can't squeeze Brown or Riewoldt in there?
* Oh yeah, and Barry Hall.
* Warren hasn't played as well as last year, can we use that as a reason?
* Oh yeah, that whole Primus/Tredrea thing is a good excuse too
* I dunno, I thought he was good last year, but this year we're all saying he's a tool.
* He's good, but is he this good? Thats a lot of AA CHF awards.
FOR WARREN
* He's still played a good season for an AFL CHF.
* It'll be tough for us not to name anyone at Port.
* At least we don't need to play him in the International Rules any more.
* He really doesn't get injured much, does he?
* Have to say, he really is pretty good in the media.
* He's a nice enough bloke off the field
* He really only plays CHF, whereas Pav and Riewoldt roam around a bit, we could slot them elsewhere
* Stats probably favour him in a lot of ways.
* If we're screwing the Crows out of AA spots, it'd look bad if we screwed the other SA team too.
ON BALANCE: He'll miss out.
Statistically Tredrea is probably in front of all of them and isnt far off last year, but realistically hes quite a fair way behind Pavlich and Hall I reckon would be ahead of him as well. Pavlich has killed him in terms of away form this year.
Hes definately done enough to hang onto it at this point. Its just whether the selectors want to give it to someone else this year. A forward line of:
HF: Robertson, Tredrea, Pavlich
F: Hall, Gehrig, Williams
isnt out of the question. Its one too many talls tho. I'd probably have Hall at FF, Milne in the other pocket and Gehrig out of the side but if Gehrig wins the Coleman then he'll have to be picked.
... but if Gehrig wins the Coleman then he'll have to be picked.
That hasn't always been the case though.
Porthos's analysis is probably closest to how the decision is going to be made, but it seems to me there might be a bit more going for Barry Hall this year. If it can't be a Vic, well, Sydney always needs all the puffery it can get. A word in the selectors' ears from the AFL might not go astray.
Vic media people seem to love "big bad Barry" for some reason.