View Full Version : will the 'return home' factor work in our favour long term?
Just a thought. With more and more queenslanders being drafted, will we eventually see it balance out? This year and last 5 or 6 have been drafted. If afl continues to make strides in junior football, this figure only could increase.
If we say that currently there are on average 70 or so draftees every year and in the future maybe 1 in ten will be drafted from qld, wouldnt the 'go home' factor end up in our favour? There'd be more from qld 'coming home' than in qld 'going home' or is there a flaw in my logic here?
Of course this ignores the Riewolt factor, where he has come from an area where no one cared about him, to melbourne where he is idolised so why would he come home. But I feel that down the track as the Lions progress increases you'd see more and more people want to come home, more and more people who grew up watching the Lions and wanting to come home and play for them.
Just a thought.
Rawhead
26 Nov 2005, 16:03
5 out of 70 isnt very many though.
I think the 'go home' factor will operate against us for a while yet.
5 out of 70 isnt very many though.
I think the 'go home' factor will operate against us for a while yet.
True, I guess i was working on the 1 in 16 principle.
True, I guess i was working on the 1 in 16 principle.
No I reckon you've got a point, Vidman. Some kids enjoy the star treatment but many blokes like Lockett and Hall have been wrapt to get out of the football fishbowl. It's a personality type thing -- Fevola vs. Lappin.
Family will always have some sort of pull, and when there are more of those kids who call Brisbane home, the chances of them getting disgruntled for any number of reasons (weather, opportunity, family) and asking for a ticket home will increase.
Bobby Beecroft
26 Nov 2005, 21:21
I think you bring up a valid point.
If the improvement in Qld continues & numbers increase at a steady rate come draft time, then yes it will become a factor.
It was great to here the names of Queenslanders being read regularly throughout the draft, I did cringe a little at the same time.
From a selfish point of view I was hoping a few would get through the net, so we could produce a gun rookie list ;)
The only way the Lions will be "really" good long term is if the locals come thru.
Thanks to the shortsightedness of the AFL (thanks to some self-indulgence), there is no other option.
If, at least, a 1:16 drafting ratio can be maintained, there is no reason why we can't be on the receiving end of the go home factor in the future.
'Bout bloody time!
Tim the Toolman
27 Nov 2005, 08:45
Yeah, it's worked really well with Riewoldt! :(
Rawhead
27 Nov 2005, 11:21
I've missed your cheeriness tim.
There are always high profile players that do go home, but in the end, most stay where they started. If they didn't, Leppa, Black, Fly, Browny, Luke, Lappin, etc, etc wouldn't have a flag between them. Chances are Riewodlt will stay, but if he ever decides he needs a change, he's only got one home.
The Flying Belgian
27 Nov 2005, 14:53
Qld kids have a mathematically lower chance (logistically-speaking) of returning home then Vic kids trying to return home. There's only one club they can strike a deal with so we'd be made to pay through the nose.
Qld kids have a mathematically lower chance (logistically-speaking) of returning home then Vic kids trying to return home. There's only one club they can strike a deal with so we'd be made to pay through the nose.
Wouldnt we pay less, because there could be no bidding war? no other option than to take our deal?
The Flying Belgian
28 Nov 2005, 08:17
Wouldnt we pay less, because there could be no bidding war? no other option than to take our deal?
I suppose it depends on the quality of the player and other factors like whether said player is out of contract.
If one of our players originally from victoria wants to go home we're pretty much obliged to do a deal because the player can chance his arm in the draft and still have 62.5% chance of being picked up by a Victorian club. If a Qld kid at a any other club wanted to do the same he'd have a 6.25% chance of being picked up by us.
But I do see your point that it perhaps evens out if there's only one club to deal with.