Is this the beginning of the end of the American superpower?

[Sydneyfan]

I was just reading a post by Pessimistic mentioning how every world power loses most of it power eventually and was thinking whether the US has seen as its greatest days as World Superpower?

Were the events of September 11, the catalyst for the beginning of the end of the American superpower? In 10/20/50 years time will the US still be the World's only superpower if not who will take that mantle?

Following the Second World War, the US has increased its global power and influence greatly in an ever increasing fashion, to emerge as the World's greatest power. It is an economic and military powerhouse, who have often used its economic and military assets to influence or resolve conflicts occurring elsewhere round the world. It spent over 40 years in an ongoing battle with the Soviet Union for world supremacy but with the fall of Communism in the Soviet Union it stands alone as the top power in the world.

Though, there are some signs of instability in the American superpower, many of which were showing long before the September 11 attacks.


The ever-widening gap between the rich and the poor, and the consequences of this. Developments such as 'gated' communities where affluent members of society lock themeselves away from society's ills are not a promising development in terms of unity within the population.
The rapidly changing demographics of population within the US and consequences of this. California, Texas and the southwestern States bordering the Mexican border have a large ever-increasing Hispanic population where in some States, such as California, the White population will be a minority over the next few decades(in terms of there being more non-White residents in California than White residents). Could this dramatic social and cultural shift in demographics cause the development of a new nation/s between present-day US and Mexico?
Lingering racism problems where the majority White population, as a group, are still economically and socially better off than fellow Hispanic-, Asian-, and African-Americans.
A largely disfunctional health system where only the wealthy are adequately catered for in the health system.
A downturn in the economy with a recession predicted before September 11 and now ever more likely to occur.


To couple with these factors, are the psychological effects on the nation of such an attack. Hardly anyone in the world, let alone the States, would have in their wildest dreams ever imagined the events which occured on September 11. The attacks must have had a huge impact on America's psyche, showing that despite being the world's greatest power there are still vulnerable and virtually powerless under a well-organised, clinical attack by an enemy.


Could the US be seeing the end of their height of power?
Will the US emerge from the events of September 11 and the War on Terrorism even stronger?
Or will nations such as China, India, or even countries such as Brazil or Iran emerge during this century to take the mantle of World's superpower?

What does everyone reckon?

[Briedis]

This is a really good topic SydneyFan, I hope we get heaps of heated debate on it!

It is true that all great empires (called superpowers these days!) come to a climax. Egypt, Greece, Rome, British have all come and gone.

Is it possible to pinpoint one particular event as the beginning of the downfall of an empire? Sept 11, may well be one. But, if it is to be the start of the end, I think history will probably credit the reaction by the US to Sept 11, to it's downfall.

I think China will be a huge power soon. It currently has a growth rate of 7% and is becoming more modernised every day. It has a long way to go to catch up though, but I believe it will emerge as a strong economic power. It is already fairly strong politically, but is powerless when it come to putting $$ where it's mouth is, so it is not taken as seriously.

You never know, us Aussies may be the superpower in 100 years! That would be a strange world to live in!

[Pessimistic]

From the rhetoric comoing out of the US after the tragic attack, you got the feeling they were more concerned about them not looking as 'invincible' to the rest of the world than about the terrorist threat itself.

I remember from history that in the days of sail and britain as a superpower there were british ships everywhere and the deliberately had flags at least twice as big as those of other countries. This gave the impression of britain being a huge counry which was only dispelled once education spread throughtout the world.

[Bloodstained Angel]

No, its not the beginning of the end, just another chapter in a long drawn out process that every Imperial power goes through.

Its called the Limits of Power and every single great Empire has to find out (the hard way usually) just how powerful they really are.

For the USA, they have been testing the limits of their power since the Korean War - at least.

The Sep11 is just another step along the way.

I dunno whether it signals the end of empire or not, empires slowly decline in power and influence, there is no one single definitive 'cut off date' that you can say ' oh thats where it all came undone'

that kind of wisdom only comes with hindsight.

Is Sep11 some kind of 'point of departure' for American hegemony ? - I dunno, time will tell.

cheers

[Thrawn]

Excellent post Sydneyfan... America is starting to whittle away a bit for the superpower tite, it seems:

The ever-widening gap between the rich and the poor, and the consequences of this. Developments such as 'gated' communities where affluent members of society lock themeselves away from society's ills are not a promising development in terms of unity within the population.

This is mostly true. American society is alreadly screwed up to some sense, but it is getting worse. Most of the upper-class hardly care about the needly, and are only interested in their assets and stature. And with crime rates rising higher than usual... there will be even more problems to face.

The rapidly changing demographics of population within the US and consequences of this. California, Texas and the southwestern States bordering the Mexican border have a large ever-increasing Hispanic population where in some States, such as California, the White population will be a minority over the next few decades(in terms of there being more non-White residents in California than White residents). Could this dramatic social and cultural shift in demographics cause the development of a new nation/s between present-day US and Mexico?

I'd seriously doubt if there would be a new "nation" or "state" in the US. But with all the immigrants coming from the south, there will be a wide majority of whites who won't like this, thus, causing violence. The US Government will probably pass new laws that are revelant to these people. But soon, yes, the numbers will be in favour of immigrats in states such as Texas and California... but this won't impact America being a superpower because this internal affair could easily be fixed by the Immigration Department or through new laws and guides sent down by the Senate. International factors are more likely to make an impact of the "superpower" case.

Lingering racism problems where the majority White population, as a group, are still economically and socially better off than fellow Hispanic-, Asian-, and African-Americans.

Very true. Racism is probably the biggest problem internally for America... a lot of crimes sprout out from racism all over the US, especially the south (they have a strong heritage against blacks). The US Government's only hope to win the war against racism is to have a black president... and hopefully by then, everyone will be finally equal, but at this current stage... things are looking bleak.

A largely disfunctional health system where only the wealthy are adequately catered for in the health system.

America is a very expensive country... unlike Australia, medical care over there is more strict, expensive, and more time consuming, and thus, it affects the poor to a certain extent.

A downturn in the economy with a recession predicted before September 11 and now ever more likely to occur.

This contributing factor is probably the icing of the cake. If America's economy falls deeper, the whole world will be affected. The downside of this is America is starting to get weak, and probably no longer has an impact as it did twenty years ago. Once regarded as the richest country... the US will soon discover that it's complacency has "costed" her dearly.

The attacks must have had a huge impact on America's psyche, showing that despite being the world's greatest power there are still vulnerable and virtually powerless under a well-organised, clinical attack by an enemy.

The "hidden enemy" can cause a lot of damage, just think what would happen if this "Antrax poster" started sending out Smallpox in the mail! Very grim indeed... but these attacks will make America very cautious and highly alerted form now on, which will make them even better prepared for future attacks. See what complacency does to you? You say that "Oh, that's impossible! They'll never attack New York!" then the actual event happens, and bites you back on the ass. But these attacks can be manageable to a certain extent... like the Mafia. They have a less of an impact now due to regular crackdowns, but are not entirely stopped... but the world will finally see how effective the FBI and CIA really are, and that the US will not be as complacent as it once was...

Could the US be seeing end of their height of power?

Not entirely, but their presence as a "superpower" will diminish as time flies by.

Will the US emerge from the events of September 11 and the War on Terrorism even stronger?

This is the most likely factor. The attacks will stop America from becoming "complacency deluxe" and will have them better prepared for the future.

Or will nations such as China, India, or even countries such as Brazil or Iran emerge during this century to take the mantle of World's superpower?

If America were to ever fall from their superpower status, then China would take over. India isn't likely because they have a poor government, and Brazil or Iran are too weak in terms of military and diplomatic power to have an impact in any world affairs. Besides, Iran or Brazil doesn't have the resources to become a world superpower like India or China has.

This has been a great discussion... hope we continue it ;)

[iceman]

The attack of Sept 11 put a dent in Americas shining armour... the US now is going to do everything in its power to show that no one should mess with them and that they are the most powerful nation in the world

The only other nation that i see coming close to toppling America as the superpower is China, and it may happen sooner than people think

[powerboi]

Originally posted by Briedis
You never know, us Aussies may be the superpower in 100 years! That would be a strange world to live in! [/B]


It could happen. Here's how: We actually get an innovative government that convinces the entire nation to tighten its belt for a decade, and sinks billions into alternative energy research. The vast, useless, hot deserts of Australia are slowly covered with gigantic arrays of thousands of square kilometres of super-advanced solar panels AND wind turbines. Energy "mining" towns spring up across the outback providing thousands of construction & maintenance jobs, knocking the unemployment rate down a couple of % points. Australia's coal & nuclear plants are wound down, electricity becomes virtually free, Australia becomes the leading adopter of electric cars. We export clean energy overseas, allowing other countries to tap into our electricity grid, and the worldwide stranglehold of the oil producing OPEC countries is broken.

[Thrawn]

If Australia weren't mostly desert... and if Australia was all planfields and grassland, we would be a superpower. The population would be around US level, and since we have a large population, we'll have a stronger military... better technology and maybe even better government, but crime rates will skyrocket! The Australian economy will probably be stronger if this were the case... and we'll probably have nuclear weapons.

[The Hitman]

So we all agree on the Sep11 attacks on the U.S. then?

As Sheedy would say, "It was the loss they had to have".

The Hitman

[Chilli Afterglow]

Good point SF!

The USA owe much of their current power to their ability to have mastered the process of mass production. This was in train even before the commencement of WW2. It is this economic might that has ultimately footed the bill required for the USA military.

It follows logically that the USA will continue to be a military power so long as they have the sustainable economy to support it.

Therefore, the question is: How long can the American economy support it's military?

Or perhaps more pertinently; for how much longer will economy be the driving factor for power?

What will drive America's ecomony throught the next century and will they be the most powerful at that field?

America's principal driving factor in the near future will be Technology. How long will this last? How long will it be before the IT industry reaches the point of diminishing returns and which technology reaches a point where increases are incremental rather than quantum?

A decade? Perhaps 2?

I would tend to be most wary of China. It has the critical mass of people, and also has managed - better than any other country - to implement a workable version of socialism.

With that kind of population mass though, nothing less than this system would work. Just look at India!

The problem is that China and the USA are diametrically opposed, unlike Russia who at least shared a common European ancestry.

This opposition ultimately means that they will end up blowing the ***** out of each othrer!

[ah_19]

in my opinion it signals the beggining of the end
how my opoinion is biased for religious reasons but from my perspective
The Torah, Bible and Koran all predict the 3rd World War to occur in the next few years. The 7 years of tribulation as called by the bible. The war will be faught amongst three "beasts" (armies/peoples/whatever that means). The first the beast of "babylon" (i think) will be the current power, the arrogant and foolish people who will be destroyed first, and destroyed fast. This will signal the false "armaggedon". At this point a leader will emerge who will bring peace to the world for three years. But in this "peace" will be a cover for evil. He will rebuild the "roman" empire which will be the 2nd beast, the beast of the antichrist/Dajjal. The roman empire as in the past will be built on a foundation of peace, justice and rightousness. But ultimately like in the past it will be the army of evil. The third beast the "scarlett" beast is still debatable. But most of the christian scolars say that this will be the islamic world/people. After the greatest war in history they will come out of it the winners. In terms of timing the bible says this will occur when the children of israel are 1 generation old. children + 1 more generation = 40 years + 1967(creation of israel soverigntiy) = 2007.

The leader of the 2nd Beast, of the reborn roman empire (european union) will do a few main things to signal the coming of (lets just say a very evil powerfull man). By christianty the antichrist, by Islam the Dajjal ( a man who will have the power to controll even the devil). By Judaism it says the same thing, unfortunately however by the Torah, Bible and Koran it will be the Israelis who will be the army of this (evil man). He will come when the temple of solomon is rebuilt, this means the Dome of the rock (gold plated mosq in Jeruselam) will be demolsished because the temple must be biult on its grounds. This temple will be close to the exact replica of the original one with some "modifications to it". Once this is done, the (evil bloke) will be crowned the "king of the world" by his own recogning. And will proclaim himself God. Before this happens the "scarlett" best will first destroy the roman empire and gain controll of the world. The bible is a bit blurry on what happens exactly here. But the Islamic texts say that after 7 years of war that islam will be the winner, at which point the Dajjal will come to the temple of solomon and the real "battle" will come. 7 periods of no rain, first period is 1 year, 2nd perdiod is 1 month, then 1 week, the rest are days, 1 year 1 month 1 week and 4 days of no rain anywhere on the world. The only people to survive will be those who beleive in God. The rest will be lured by illusions of Dajjal's into hell. Both the bible and the koran say that at this point Jesus (this name is fake, in roman it means Je Zeus, The Zeus) (proper biblilcal name i cant remember to spell) (islamic name Essa (was) ) will return to the world to reign for a period of (1000 years by bible)(40 years by koran).

now most of you dont beleive in religious "rubbish". But unfortunately for you, 100% of the events predicted ( ie torah + death of diana in aug 1997, creation of israel, fall of islamic empire etc) have become true. By Islam 2003 OR 2006 signals the coming of the leader that will restore the islamic empire and lead the islamic world back to true islam and to victory against the roman empire. so within the next few years, yes i beleive america will be annhiliated by a nuclear force. (presumably russia).

For some extra reading note that the Freemason (33rd degree in scotland) is based in a replica of Solomons temple. Has the sign of the devil as its symbol (pyramid , commonly found with one eye at top, found on american one dollar note). 80% of americas presidents are confirmed members, Washington was one too.

Also interesting to note, that New York has more people living below the poverty line than there is in Calcutta (which is in india). In washington the infant mortality rate is higher than it is in cuba. i can see why fidel is so evil now.

[Fat Red]

I think people are getting a bit carried away.

60 years is a pretty short time for an empire to last before declining, and that is the longest you could say the US has been a true superpower.

Only 10 years as the leading superpower.

The US economy is still extremely strong (the dollar remains high despite extremely low interest rates and Sep 11). Sure it has its social problems, but compared with Imperial Rome or Britain the US is a more egalitarian and meritocratic society. That is the cause of its weakness sometimes: a commitment to liberty, political freedom and freedom of movement creates vulnerabilities.

In 2 months they've got the Taliban out of Kabul. I personally am blown away by this, no one else seems very impressed but to me it's amazing. Imagine how history would be different if they had dealt with the Viet Cong so easily.

[RacerX]

I'm with Fat Red. The US has plenty more mileage in it. I also don't believe that someone putting their own spin on Revelations makes a telling argument against the US's future.

The US does not appear to be an empire in the Roman sense anyway. Economic empire maybe, and considering this how can we use the Roman, Ottoman and Mongols as analogies.

[Briedis]

Originally posted by powerboi



It could happen. Here's how: We actually get an innovative government that convinces the entire nation to tighten its belt for a decade, and sinks billions into alternative energy research. The vast, useless, hot deserts of Australia are slowly covered with gigantic arrays of thousands of square kilometres of super-advanced solar panels AND wind turbines. Energy "mining" towns spring up across the outback providing thousands of construction & maintenance jobs, knocking the unemployment rate down a couple of % points. Australia's coal & nuclear plants are wound down, electricity becomes virtually free, Australia becomes the leading adopter of electric cars. We export clean energy overseas, allowing other countries to tap into our electricity grid, and the worldwide stranglehold of the oil producing OPEC countries is broken.

Nice vision powerboi! I would love to see something like this happen. How far away do you think somethng like this actually is? I'm not sure how far advanced solar technology has come, but it must be getting to a stage where it can produce a fairly large amount of power.