View Full Version : South Africa @ $7.35 to win first test!
PowerKop
13 Dec 2005, 12:42
Really how can South Africa be at over $7 to win the first test, and Australia to be at $1.35. The teams are much closer than the betting suggests, and Perth should suit the South AFricans better than any ground in Australia, because of the South Africans fast bowling attack and lack of quality spinner, as well as the fact SOuth African wickets are often similar.
Anyone interested in betting on the first test should visit http://www.tab.com.au/sportsbet/index.asp.
Also you can see how match fixing can occur, with the betting available on how many runs Hayden or Gibbs will score. Hope haydos doesn't get onto a mate or family member and tell them to chuck a million bucks on him getting between 1 and 5, or if he does it'd be good if he could let me know.
ManWithNoName
13 Dec 2005, 13:25
Without Kallis, $7.35 is fair odds.
LIONS then DAYLIGHT
13 Dec 2005, 13:35
Why do you think Bookies are rich and your not.
Because they now what their doing.
Why do you think Bookies are rich and your not.
Because they now what their doing.
McGrath v Lee most 1st Inns wickets 1.90 each.
mcphee_is_a_gun
13 Dec 2005, 14:42
Really how can South Africa be at over $7 to win the first test, and Australia to be at $1.35. The teams are much closer than the betting suggests, and Perth should suit the South AFricans better than any ground in Australia, because of the South Africans fast bowling attack and lack of quality spinner, as well as the fact SOuth African wickets are often similar.
Anyone interested in betting on the first test should visit http://www.tab.com.au/sportsbet/index.asp.
Also you can see how match fixing can occur, with the betting available on how many runs Hayden or Gibbs will score. Hope haydos doesn't get onto a mate or family member and tell them to chuck a million bucks on him getting between 1 and 5, or if he does it'd be good if he could let me know.
WA flogged them!!!
pluga_4
13 Dec 2005, 14:49
south africa have never won a test in perth, why should they be any shorter!
they've never won a test series in australia and have won 5 tests on australian soil, and only 1 of them has been since they've come back to test cricket in 1991!!!!!
PowerKop
13 Dec 2005, 14:49
Why do you think Bookies are rich and your not.
Because they now what their doing.
ok we'll see who's laughing next week.
apollo_creed
13 Dec 2005, 15:01
South Africa are the most boring, least to be excited about team in world cricket.
Even there stars are boring.
Kallis, sleeptime anyone?
Pollock, line and length and 125kph anyone.
Good cricket team. But nothing to be excited about.
LIONS then DAYLIGHT
13 Dec 2005, 15:21
ok we'll see who's laughing next week.
We will indeed.
ANyone who thinks they can make more than they lose by betting on sport is kidding themselves.
Bookies aren't stupid but they make their money from people who are.
docker_azza
13 Dec 2005, 15:44
South Africa are not that good against Australia. They used to be very competitive and play with a lot of spirit against the Aussie, but that went missing in the last test series and ever since then. Would not be suprised if Australia take them to the cleaners.
LIONS then DAYLIGHT
13 Dec 2005, 15:54
South Africa are not that good against Australia. They used to be very competitive and play with a lot of spirit against the Aussie, but that went missing in the last test series and ever since then. Would not be suprised if Australia take them to the cleaners.
I do not expect us to take them to the cleaners, in 2001 in Australia South Africa were taken to the cleaners but McGrath, Gillespie and even Lee were bowling very well then.
Mcgrath and Warne will be the main dangers for South Africa.
If Lee can average under 30 for the series then that will be a step forward for him and Australian cricket.
I still expect to win 3-0 however.
Tazza_20
13 Dec 2005, 16:47
is that all?
If South Africa are at $7+ for the first test, ill be laying a quiet $10 down. You never know what could happen in test cricket :thumbsu:
When was the last time a touring side won the 1st test here?
apollo_creed
13 Dec 2005, 18:57
When was the last time a touring side won the 1st test here?
Everytime one doesn't it means that we're presumably one game closer to the next time.
south africa have never won a test in perth, why should they be any shorter!
A good reason for that is theyve never played there. ODI record there is exceptional. I think.
I was just asking because i honestly can't remember the last time.
Anyway good luck to South Africa but i wouldn't want to be facing a fired up Lee at the WACA.... Deadly.
Australia easily.
How bout this for a market:
How many times will Brett Lee hit the helmet of the South African batsmen during the first test?
None $3.40
Once $3.60
Twice $3.90
Three times or more $7.50
Any takers?
Antonius
13 Dec 2005, 21:52
McGrath v Lee most 1st Inns wickets 1.90 each.
Spot on mate. The bookies aren't always right, and there are sometimes glaring errors such as that one. What bookie is that with? Might chuck $1000 on the great man.
Sidey_87
13 Dec 2005, 22:05
The one above is not an error, you are silly to get on either as Mcgrath will get the openers and Lee will get the tail.
My best best is the draw at 4.25 or something like that.
Warne won't do much on the road over there.
If RSA can make 400 in the 1st dig, it will be a draw.
The one above is not an error, you are silly to get on either as Mcgrath will get the openers and Lee will get the tail.
My best best is the draw at 4.25 or something like that.
Warne won't do much on the road over there.
If RSA can make 400 in the 1st dig, it will be a draw.
LOL
Since when does Lee get the tail you silly fool, Lee always cleans up the top order and Warne cleans up the tail.
Do you even watch Cricket?
Sidey_87
13 Dec 2005, 22:42
LOL
Since when does Lee get the tail you silly fool, Lee always cleans up the top order and Warne cleans up the tail.
Do you even watch Cricket?
You're dead right.
Since when does Lee get anyone?
Do you even know where this test is played?
Warne won't be bowling that many overs, and if he does bowl to the tail, i would back Lee to get the majority of wickets.
You fool.
Go and find me some figures which suggest Lee gets a higher % of his wickets from the top 4 than the bottom 4.
You're dead right.
Since when does Lee get anyone?
Do you even know where this test is played?
Warne won't be bowling that many overs, and if he does bowl to the tail, i would back Lee to get the majority of wickets.
You fool.
Go and find me some figures which suggest Lee gets a higher % of his wickets from the top 4 than the bottom 4.
It's already been done a couple of weeks ago, i was proved right.
Plus consider he's only just opening the bowling again AND MacGill is in the side (a tail end merchant) it would be even lower again.
As an opening bowler, I'm guessing:
Top 4 47%
Middle 4 33%
Tail 3 20%
Warne does bowl a lot of overs at the WACA, there is no MacGill remember.
Think it through before taking me on in an argument next time.
Cheers.
Greg Miller= Messiah
13 Dec 2005, 23:51
As an opening bowler, I'm guessing:
Top 4 47%
Middle 4 33%
Tail 3 20%
Yep, you certainly would be.:rolleyes:
Bourky23
14 Dec 2005, 08:00
all of brett lees wickets are tailenders, he is the most overatted hack iv seen if he didnt bowl 150kph he wuldnt be in the side he is only in the coz he bowls quick if he bowled the same line and length at mcgrath pace he'd get slapped around even more than he already does, ill be fair he has his dayz but not often enough
Antonius
14 Dec 2005, 09:48
All you people mentioning the fact that Lee gets tail-enders are incorrect. First of all, you have to understand the fundamentals of cricket to see why Lee doesn't get tail wickets.
1. Lee is an opening bowler (and previously first change). You would expect an opening bowler to get the majority of their wickets as top-order batsman.
2. Lee runs out of gas due to the pace of his deliveries, and therefore is rested late in an innings.
3. Warne makes use of the old ball as a spinner, therefore he will bowl to tail enders. He doesn't get top order wickets that often because you can't have a spinner opening the bowling, and if he gets top order batsman than the opening bowlers haven't done their job.
So starz, you are correct in that Lee does not get many tail wickets. Not sure about you "making up" statistics though. In my book, that is not on.
usalion
14 Dec 2005, 12:24
.
As an opening bowler, I'm guessing:
Top 4 47%
Middle 4 33%
Tail 3 20%
.
starz and his standard way of posting to Big Footy.
The more things change, the more they stay the same.
If he should ever decide to do any research into his harebrained ideas, he'd actually learn some things...
Oh, well....
BTW, Lee's totals (source is howstat.com)
66 wickets for batsmen 1-3, or 36.9% of Lee's wickets
66 wickets for batsmen 4-7, or 36.9%
47 wickets for batsmen 8-11, or 26.3%
Some quicks are around 28-9%- for under 200 wickets lifetime, that might be 5 or 6 wickets. McGrath, curiosly, has a lower percentage than Lee for 8-11, 24.9%
starz and his standard way of posting to Big Footy.
The more things change, the more they stay the same.
If he should ever decide to do any research into his harebrained ideas, he'd actually learn some things...
Oh, well....
BTW, Lee's totals (source is howstat.com)
66 wickets for batsmen 1-3, or 36.9% of Lee's wickets
66 wickets for batsmen 4-7, or 36.9%
47 wickets for batsmen 8-11, or 26.3%
Some quicks are around 28-9%- for under 200 wickets lifetime, that might be 5 or 6 wickets. McGrath, curiosly, has a lower percentage than Lee for 8-11, 24.9%
1. I said as an opening bowler, not overall.
2. I said top 4, middle 4, tail 3, not what you put up.
If anything... as an opening bowler 50%+ of Lee's wickets would be top 4.
Next....
Lets not forget that classic opening bowling average "guess".. where in the end he actually averaged 32 with the new ball..
Lets not forget that classic opening bowling average "guess".. where in the end he actually averaged 32 with the new ball..
There was no link for that, those numbers could have come from anywhere.
Highly doubtful and circumstantial i may add.
Theseventhhamster
15 Dec 2005, 05:57
When will you learn starz? By the way do you know anybody old enough to put a bet on for you?
There was no link for that, those numbers could have come from anywhere.
Highly doubtful and circumstantial i may add.
http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?t=213337
Same can be said for most of your "Guesses". That one actually came from his stats and calculated up manually by particular posters.
usalion
15 Dec 2005, 08:41
http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?t=213337
Same can be said for most of your "Guesses". That one actually came from his stats and calculated up manually by particular posters.
And the source was howstat.com
For starz' benefit and laziness, here is the link for Lee's individual tests, which were collated together- he can find the specific test number from the post provided- and when Lee opened, see his percentages for opening and for change.
Seeing as he has not done many tests, and the majority of those WERE as an opening bowler, one would think percentages reasonably close to what they are given as overall... I mean, his average is the same wherever he bowls.
37-37-26
http://www.howstat.com/cricket/Statistics/Players/PlayerProgressBowl.asp?PlayerID=2205
Fire away, old buddy- and provide the detailked analysis that others have provided on when he opened the bowling....
Guessing simply shows you are clueless- the FACTS are there for you to dig out...
I reckon Perth could be the best test match of the Summer. Very similar conditions to Wanderers, a ground where SAF have an excellent record. Doen't take spin either, and for a side who can't play spin to save themselves, is another bonus for SAF. Ausies have also spent the last 4 weeks playing on low, slow decks (Hobart, Adelaide, NZ). SAF will get murdered in Sydney and Melbourne, but Perth could be a ripping test.
What are Nel's odds for most wickets in the 1st test?
And the source was howstat.com
For starz' benefit and laziness, here is the link for Lee's individual tests, which were collated together- he can find the specific test number from the post provided- and when Lee opened, see his percentages for opening and for change.
Seeing as he has not done many tests, and the majority of those WERE as an opening bowler, one would think percentages reasonably close to what they are given as overall... I mean, his average is the same wherever he bowls.
37-37-26
http://www.howstat.com/cricket/Statistics/Players/PlayerProgressBowl.asp?PlayerID=2205
Fire away, old buddy- and provide the detailked analysis that others have provided on when he opened the bowling....
Guessing simply shows you are clueless- the FACTS are there for you to dig out...
Again you are not reading my posts. I said TOP 4, MIDDLE 4, TAIL 3!!!
Nobody could be bothered spending hours looking up stats that have been tampered with by you unless you're an obsessed Qld Kaspa fan/Lee hater.
How did Kasper go against a weakened NSW last Pura Cup match? 1/104 opening bowler too...lol
Again you are not reading my posts. I said TOP 4, MIDDLE 4, TAIL 3!!!
Nobody could be bothered spending hours looking up stats that have been tampered with by you unless you're an obsessed Qld Kaspa fan/Lee hater.
How did Kasper go against a weakened NSW last Pura Cup match? 1/104 opening bowler too...lol
Tampered with??? so Howstat.com/Statsguru stat is a lie? unless if its stats that you make up for your pro-Lee/anti everyone else argument (according to you)
Whatever, just get over it.
Back to the topic of the thread... Australia were $1.50 on Sunday, i lumped on, now they are into 1.40 not because of me... (on this occasion)
Let's hope Lee and McGarth rip through the Saffers tomorrow.
Whatever, just get over it.
If you took off your Lee glasses and didnt go around making up stats to justify for Lee's mediocre average in the last 4 years then people wouldnt be jumping over you in the first place.
I suggest you get over making excuses for Lee and just admit that he played poorly over that 3 year period + 05 Ashes series.
--
Getting onto topic, South Africa is now down to $6.75. A draw is also pretty tempting after the aussies (notably Hayden) spoke highly of the Saffies pace attack. Although I have my doubts about a draw (unless weather plays a part).
usalion
15 Dec 2005, 20:41
Again you are not reading my posts. I said TOP 4, MIDDLE 4, TAIL 3!!!
Nobody could be bothered spending hours looking up stats that have been tampered with by you unless you're an obsessed Qld Kaspa fan/Lee hater.
How did Kasper go against a weakened NSW last Pura Cup match? 1/104 opening bowler too...lol
So now you are changing how statisticians actually look at the game...nice one, lad. Howstat breaks it down like I gave it.
I've given you the link so you can go through all of Lee's tests- but I have at least sent you the Test matches where he opened the bowling, so that will save you time.
BTW, starz- what happens when the batting order is changed for some reason- nightwatchman, for instance- do you recognise them in the spot they actually bat that match or not? Just curious.
As for kasper- he was the most effective at Edgbaston- far better than your boy who opened the bowling. But I didn't whinge and open 5436 threads about him being dropped for McGrath the next test, or complaining that it was too hot, too cols- that it wasn't the right time of the month (maybe THAT is Lee's problem, or your problem with him)...
You know, if you keep going with this, you'll find out that Lee took 100% of his wickets with batsmen batting from #1 to #11 when he is bowling between 1 and 150 kph with winds blowing at variable sppeds for and against him.
skywalk750
15 Dec 2005, 22:02
Without Kallis, $7.35 is fair odds.
:cool: yup
Originally Posted starz
McGrath v Lee most 1st Inns wickets 1.90 each.
Spot on mate. The bookies aren't always right, and there are sometimes glaring errors such as that one. What bookie is that with? Might chuck $1000 on the great man.
Hope you got on ;)
Probably can't reply because he can't afford the internet anymore.
Sidey_87
20 Dec 2005, 18:59
The one above is not an error, you are silly to get on either as Mcgrath will get the openers and Lee will get the tail.
My best best is the draw at 4.25 or something like that.
Warne won't do much on the road over there.
If RSA can make 400 in the 1st dig, it will be a draw.
Laughing all the way to the TAB.
Told ya's the draw was a better bet.
Laughing all the way to the TAB.
Told ya's the draw was a better bet.
Fair play, well done.
I underestimated the Safr batting lineup.