Can we make the top 4 ?

[Kildonan]

The Sydney win puts us one game out of the top 4.

If we can win next Friday against Adelaide, that will set our season up.

This post (http://www.saintsational.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=17052) is from Saintsational analysing our draw with respect to opposition recovery time versus ours:
I don't know if this has been mentioned before, but anyway despite having 11 games with a 6 day break there are only 6 games where we have less recovery time that our opponents (in red font). There are 9 games (in orange font) where we have more recovery time than our opponents, and 7 games with equal recovery time.

At first glimpse the draw looks bad but with further investigation it may not be too bad. I did this last night so all may not be accurate.

The 2 bad games concerning recovery time are rounds 5 and 15. All bar one interstate trip (rd.15) we have either more or equal recovery than our opponents.

There are some interesting ones also, Geelong play the Lions at the Gabba in rd.18, then play us in rd.19 and we have 2 days more rest. Rd. 2 we play the Lions off a 6 day break but they only have 5 days off.

Recovery time seems to be a big factor these days and as far as this is concerned the draw isn't too bad, as far as who we play twice thats another issue which I'm pretty sure has been done before.

Round- Date- Opponent- Venue- Timeslot- Day Brk.Opp.- Day Brk.St.K.

1- 30-Mar-06 -West Coast- Subiaco- Thursday Night- 0- 0 (LOST)
2- 7-Apr-06 -Richmond -Telstra Dome- Friday Night- 7- 8 (WON)
3- 13-Apr-06 -Brisbane Lions -Telstra Dome- Thursday Night- 5- 6 (WON)
4- 24-Apr-06 -Port Adelaide -AAMI Stadium- Monday Night- 8- 11 (LOST)
5- 30-Apr-06 -Fremantle -Aurora Stadium- Sunday Early- 8- 6 (LOST)
6- 6-May-06 -Western Bulldogs- Telstra Dome- Saturday Day- 7- 6 (WON)
7- 12-May-06 -Geelong -Telstra Dome- Friday Night- 7- 6 (LOST)
8- 21-May-06 -Carlton -M.C.G.- Sunday Day- 7- 8 (WON)
9- 28-May-06 -Kangaroos -Telstra Dome- Sunday Day- 8- 7 (WON)
10- 4-Jun-06 -Melbourne -M.C.G.- Sunday Day- 7- 7 (LOST)
11- 10-Jun-06 -Sydney -S.C.G.- Saturday Night- 6- 6 (WON)
12- 16-Jun-06 -Adelaide -Telstra Dome- Friday Night- 6- 6
- Break -
13- 1-Jul-06 -Hawthorn -Telstra Dome- Saturday Day- 13- 15
14- 9-Jul-06 -Collingwood -Telstra Dome- Sunday Day- 7- 8
15- 15-Jul-06 -Essendon -M.C.G.- Saturday Day- 8- 6
16- 23-Jul-06 -Port Adelaide -Aurora Stadium- Sunday Early- 7- 8
17- 29-Jul-06 -Richmond -M.C.G.- Saturday Day- 7- 6
18- 4-Aug-06 -West Coast -Telstra Dome- Friday Night- 6- 6
19- 13-Aug-06 -Geelong -Telstra Dome- Sunday Day- 7- 9
20- 19-Aug-06 -Fremantle -Subiaco- Saturday Night- 6- 6
21- 25-Aug-06 -Western Bulldogs -Telstra Dome- Friday Night- 6- 6
22- 2-Sep-06 -Brisbane Lions -Gabba- Saturday Night- 7- 8

So far we have won three and lost once (Port @ AAMI) against teams who have had a shorter break than us.

We have a 2 - 2 record (Freo and Geelong) against teams who have had a longer break than us.

We have one win and two losses (WCE @ Subi and Melbourne @ MCG) against teams with the same break as us.

Adelaide fits into the latter group, if we win this one we go to 2 - 2 in this group.

After the break we play 5 matches where we have had a longer break than the opposition, 2 matches where our break is shorter, and 3 matches where we have the same break.

There are 5 matches at Telstra Dome, 2 matches at MCG (both on a shorter break), 1 at Aurora, 1 at Subi, and 1 at the Gabba.

Predictions:
If we continue to perform at a similar level to the first half of the season, this is how I see us going:
Win at least 3 of 5 matches where we have the longer break.
Win 2 of 4 of the matches where we have same break.
Win 1 of 2 of the matches where we have lesser break.

Going by this we would win at least 6 more matches - giving us only 12 - 13 wins for the season.
We would barely scrape into the eight on 12 wins, and be somewhere in the bottom half of the eight with 13 wins.

An optimistic scenario would see us win 4 of 5, 3 of 4, and 2 of 2 in the above categories.
This unlikely result would see us win 9 more matches, giving us 15 for the season and a possible crack at a top 4 spot.

[luke ball14]

Who cares about the breaks we have a very nice run home I see us losing only 3 more games from here on in giving us a record of 14-8
which should give us either 4th 0r 5th place and a resonable chance at the flag.

[mad-saint-guy]

Adelaide - Should win
Hawthorn - Will win
Collingwood - Will win
Essendon - Will win
Port Adelaide - Should win
Richmond - Will win
West Coast - Should win
Geelong - Will win
Fremantle - Should win
Bulldogs - Will win
Brisbane - Should win

From now on we have a pretty easy draw. The danger games are Adelaide, Port, WC and Freo, but as long as we have 22 contributers, I don't see any reason why we shouldn't win.

[bluejay]

Collingwood - Will win

Im not so sure about that. I would say it is a Should win.

[nudgep]

Adelaide - Should win
Hawthorn - Will win
Collingwood - Will win
Essendon - Will win
Port Adelaide - Should win
Richmond - Will win
West Coast - Should win
Geelong - Will win
Fremantle - Should win
Bulldogs - Will win
Brisbane - Should win

From now on we have a pretty easy draw. The danger games are Adelaide, Port, WC and Freo, but as long as we have 22 contributers, I don't see any reason why we shouldn't win.
will win against collingwood? good to see an optimist but i think by that time with big swanny back that'll be a 50/50 just like the adelaide game. looking forward to taking on the eagles in melbourne for the first time in a couple of yrs, by then should have hamill, xav, raph, thommo back...should be able to give em a run for their money. saints in full flight are the best team in the league i reckon, but crippled with injuries and not always performing at 100% hav cost our club dearly in the past two yrs. im confident regardless of our final position with mayb the return of kosi, either the double chance or the home elimination final should help us make a real impact come september

[Kildonan]

I think the last 5 games will make or break us.

We play West Coast at home after a 6 day break then have a 9 day break for another tough match, Geelong again at TD. Then we have a 6 day break including flying to Subiaco to play Freo (who will get their comeuppance) then another 6 day break before playing Western Bulldogs then we have to fly up to Brisbane to meet the lions (never been a happy hunting ground for us).

Plenty of challenges for us before our first final.

[St DAC]

I think the last 5 games will make or break us.

I agree. We are capable of winning all our remaining games, but there are several which could go either way, starting this week. And you're right, the last 5 are all difficult.

Still, here's hoping ... :)

[DDC City West]

If we beat Adelaide this week then the answer is YES

[mad-saint-guy]

will win against collingwood? good to see an optimist but i think by that time with big swanny back that'll be a 50/50 just like the adelaide game. looking forward to taking on the eagles in melbourne for the first time in a couple of yrs, by then should have hamill, xav, raph, thommo back...should be able to give em a run for their money. saints in full flight are the best team in the league i reckon, but crippled with injuries and not always performing at 100% hav cost our club dearly in the past two yrs. im confident regardless of our final position with mayb the return of kosi, either the double chance or the home elimination final should help us make a real impact come september

We will beat Collingwood. They have shown that they have absolutely no depth, and Rocca (supposedly their most influential player) can't do a thing against someone more than half his size.

Guys like Swan, Shaw, Thomas etc just have to be payed respect, and actually make sure their opponent doesn't let them run amok.
Fraser struggles against bigger, stronger ruckman, so Rix should do well against him, our midfield is far better, and their defence won't be able to hold Riewoldt, Gehrig, Milne, Schwarze and possibly Hamill.

[nudgep]

We will beat Collingwood. They have shown that they have absolutely no depth, and Rocca (supposedly their most influential player) can't do a thing against someone more than half his size.

Guys like Swan, Shaw, Thomas etc just have to be payed respect, and actually make sure their opponent doesn't let them run amok.
Fraser struggles against bigger, stronger ruckman, so Rix should do well against him, our midfield is far better, and their defence won't be able to hold Riewoldt, Gehrig, Milne, Schwarze and possibly Hamill.

swan has been devestating this season, hopefully the injury slows him down a bit. fraser is much more experienced than rix, despite rix's mature body, i would take break even in the ruck. fraser has been in ripper form. but hopefully with the next couple of games against biglands/everitt rix can learn alot and take the fight to fraser. collingwoods defence...clement and presti, gehrig can take himself out of the game, milne has been inconsistent and largely disappointing this season, schwarze is still a bit part player trying to make a name in the forward line if only we had hamill...my bet is he wont be rushed back and he wont play agst the pies, rmemeber last yr when it took fooooorever to come back from that injury. i know im sounding like a pessimist, but this is a top four team and should be paid respect! altho if we play like we did agst sydney they should pose no problems

[Kildonan]

We will beat Collingwood. They have shown that they have absolutely no depth, and Rocca (supposedly their most influential player) can't do a thing against someone more than half his size.

Guys like Swan, Shaw, Thomas etc just have to be payed respect, and actually make sure their opponent doesn't let them run amok.
Fraser struggles against bigger, stronger ruckman, so Rix should do well against him, our midfield is far better, and their defence won't be able to hold Riewoldt, Gehrig, Milne, Schwarze and possibly Hamill.

Good call MSG.

[Kildonan]

This post (http://www.saintsational.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=17052) is from Saintsational analysing our draw with respect to opposition recovery time versus ours:
I don't know if this has been mentioned before, but anyway despite having 11 games with a 6 day break there are only 6 games where we have less recovery time that our opponents (in red font). There are 9 games (in orange font) where we have more recovery time than our opponents, and 7 games with equal recovery time.

At first glimpse the draw looks bad but with further investigation it may not be too bad. I did this last night so all may not be accurate.

The 2 bad games concerning recovery time are rounds 5 and 15. All bar one interstate trip (rd.15) we have either more or equal recovery than our opponents.

There are some interesting ones also, Geelong play the Lions at the Gabba in rd.18, then play us in rd.19 and we have 2 days more rest. Rd. 2 we play the Lions off a 6 day break but they only have 5 days off.

Recovery time seems to be a big factor these days and as far as this is concerned the draw isn't too bad, as far as who we play twice thats another issue which I'm pretty sure has been done before.

Round- Date- Opponent- Venue- Timeslot- Day Brk.Opp.- Day Brk.St.K.

1- 30-Mar-06 -West Coast- Subiaco- Thursday Night- 0- 0 (LOST)
2- 7-Apr-06 -Richmond -Telstra Dome- Friday Night- 7- 8 (WON)
3- 13-Apr-06 -Brisbane Lions -Telstra Dome- Thursday Night- 5- 6 (WON)
4- 24-Apr-06 -Port Adelaide -AAMI Stadium- Monday Night- 8- 11 (LOST)
5- 30-Apr-06 -Fremantle -Aurora Stadium- Sunday Early- 8- 6 (LOST)
6- 6-May-06 -Western Bulldogs- Telstra Dome- Saturday Day- 7- 6 (WON)
7- 12-May-06 -Geelong -Telstra Dome- Friday Night- 7- 6 (LOST)
8- 21-May-06 -Carlton -M.C.G.- Sunday Day- 7- 8 (WON)
9- 28-May-06 -Kangaroos -Telstra Dome- Sunday Day- 8- 7 (WON)
10- 4-Jun-06 -Melbourne -M.C.G.- Sunday Day- 7- 7 (LOST)
11- 10-Jun-06 -Sydney -S.C.G.- Saturday Night- 6- 6 (WON)
12- 16-Jun-06 -Adelaide -Telstra Dome- Friday Night- 6- 6 (LOST)
- Break -
13- 1-Jul-06 -Hawthorn -Telstra Dome- Saturday Day- 13- 15 (WON)
14- 9-Jul-06 -Collingwood -Telstra Dome- Sunday Day- 7- 8 (WON)
15- 15-Jul-06 -Essendon -M.C.G.- Saturday Day- 8- 6
16- 23-Jul-06 -Port Adelaide -Aurora Stadium- Sunday Early- 7- 8
17- 29-Jul-06 -Richmond -M.C.G.- Saturday Day- 7- 6
18- 4-Aug-06 -West Coast -Telstra Dome- Friday Night- 6- 6
19- 13-Aug-06 -Geelong -Telstra Dome- Sunday Day- 7- 9
20- 19-Aug-06 -Fremantle -Subiaco- Saturday Night- 6- 6
21- 25-Aug-06 -Western Bulldogs -Telstra Dome- Friday Night- 6- 6
22- 2-Sep-06 -Brisbane Lions -Gabba- Saturday Night- 7- 8

UPDATE:

Against teams who have had a shorter break than us:
So far we have won five and lost once (Port @ AAMI).

To come: Port @ Aurora, Geelong @ TD, Brisbane @ Gabba.
3 hard matches where we benefit from a shorter break - good :)

Against teams with the same break as us:
We have one win and three losses (WCE @ Subi, Melbourne @ MCG, and Adelaide @ TD)

To come: WCE @ TD, Fremantle @ Subi and Western Bulldogs @ TD
This is where we need to step up - these matches will determine whether we make top 4 or not.

Against teams who have had a longer break than us:
We have a 2 - 2 record (Freo and Geelong).

To come: Essendon @ MCG and Richmond @ MCG.
Whilst we welcome the MCG experience, these matches are more difficult than they first appear. If we lose to Richmond, I will not be heartbroken, if we beat them :cool:


There are 3 matches at Telstra Dome, 2 matches at MCG (both on a shorter break), 1 at Aurora, 1 at Subi, and 1 at the Gabba left this season.

[PHX]

Isn't so good playing at the GABBA in Round 22. Could create bad jet lag, especially if having to travel to Subi.

[Kildonan]

Saints focus on top four (http://www.sportal.com.au/football.asp?i=news&id=85270)
Sportal
Monday, 10 July 2006 2:33:20 PM AEDT

With the race for the top four now blown wide open, St Kilda coach Grant Thomas believes mental toughness will decide which teams earn the all-important "double chance" come finals time.

Just one game now separates fourth-placed Collingwood from eighth-placed Richmond in the race for fourth spot with the other teams in contention being St Kilda, Sydney and the Western Bulldogs - with Adelaide, West Coast and Melbourne looking a safe bet to finish in the top three positions.

The Saints' 10-goal win over Collingwood at Telstra Dome on Sunday - which was the Pies' third heavy loss in the past four matches - coupled with Sydney's ongoing form problems and the Bulldogs' shock loss to the Kangaroos - has suddenly made the Saints favourites to grab the other spot in the top four come season's end.

This is despite the fact the Saints are still yet to win more than two successive games this season.

However, while Thomas is confident the win over the Pies could finally see the Saints get on a "good stretch" of form, he warned there are plenty of pitfalls ahead for all of the top four contenders over the last eight games.

"This game more than ever before just throws up so many mental challenges week in, week out," Thomas said.

"It's an unbelievable dynamic where sides set themselves for a particular sides and when they do that, more often than not they come out on top or nearly get there.

"Because of the mental strain on players; week in, week out, it makes it very difficult (to string together a series of wins).

"Every team knows what it has to do (to win) but knowing what to do is one thing - implementing it is the really difficult thing."

Thomas said the teams that were able to go into games mentally strong on a regular basis over the last two months of the home-and-away season would be the ones to reap the rewards come finals time - when a top four finish or the chance to host home finals becomes critical.

"In the past skill has always defined the result much more than it does now," he said.

"Now, much more than ever before, mental attitude is the key to defining which side wins on a given day."

Thomas admits St Kilda's win over Collingwood had put them firmly back into top four contention but warned "there is still a lot of water to go under the bridge yet" before the Saints could contemplate finishing in the top four for the third straight season.

"You can't take your foot off the pedal in this business and you've got to make sure you come to play each week," he said.

[MC_Gusto]

I think we can make top 2.

No shyte - i reckobn we will

[pluga_4]

I think we can make top 2.

No shyte - i reckobn we will

I WISH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

even winning every game (16-6) from here won't assure of a top 2 finish.
we haven't been consistant enough to string the remaining 8 in a row plus the 2 in a row we've already won, although i hope you are right.

we don't have control over adelaide or west coast and have some ground to make up. we can't afford any slip ups and itll be a good effort just to make the top 4.