View Full Version : Halfway ponderings
Scott Van Persett
1 Jul 2006, 19:47
With the end of the split round I thought I would assess the form of the teams competing for the premiership
1. West Coast
Were coasting along until Judd was injured. Looking decidedly shakey without him as they would have expected to have beaten Geelong and Carlton by 10 goals and had a bad loss against Port, whosr form has only been ordinary. With their draw and home ground advantage, however, should be absolute favourite to make the grand final, although this could all change if Judd is injured towards the end of the season
2. Collingwood
Showing good form against lower teams but lost to Melbourne, West Coast and Adelaide. Beat Sydney but their form is not that good ( see Sydney). With a favourable draw, however, should make the top 4.
3. Bulldogs
Showing some good form although soundly beaten by Adelaide. Injuries not as bad as trumpeted by press as 2 of the knee injuries were to no-names. Luke Darcy the exception, but recently injuries to Hahn and Murphy may take their toll later in the season. Not quite top 4 material
4. Melbourne
After a slow start to the season, playing good football. Will they fade towards the end of the season as they did last year. Have a lot of 50-50 games to finish the year
5. Sydney
Although being talked up by the papers, their form does not justify this. Have lost to Port, St Kilda, Collingwood, Melbourne and yet to plat Adelaide and West Coast. Will have to get better form against top 8 teams to be a threat, especially as they will probably be in the lower part of the eight. Have a favourable draw only playing 1 top 8 team their last 7 matches. How does this happen to the premiership team ?
6. St Kilda
Only have 6 really good players and Koschnitske, Hayes and Hamill seem gone for the rest of the season. Their 2nd tier players are just not stepping up ? over-rated ? coach. How would this team be going if Blight or Craig was coaching them ?
7. Port Adelaide
Their wins have only come against teams who have not been travelling well, except for the Judd-less Coasters. Cannot see them winning more than 4 more games but my tipping is not too good so may sneak into the eight with 11 wins, although bad percentage
8. Fremantle
I've only tipped them correctly 3 times in the first 12 games. Can only see them winning 4-5 more games so probably miss out on top 8. Bad draw- have to play 7 of the top 8 in their last 10 games ( compare with Sydney's draw)
9. Richmond
Turned their season around with win against the Crows and had a share of wins in the following weeks but suddenly hit the wall in the marathon and unlikely to more than 3 or 4 of their remaining games. Once again play 7 of the top 8 teams in their last 10 games
10. Geelong
Became very comfortable with winning the NAB Cup and forgot to keep their eye on the rest of the season. Have too many father/son selections who are not producing, although only gave up 3rd round pick for them, so should be showing more after 5 years under Thompson. Surely he would be under pressure if they do not make the finals this year. Have to win at least 6 of their last 10 matches to make the finals but play some danger games at Skilled Stadium so may sneak into the 8.
Rest of the teams-no chance
I think 11 wins should make the top 8, the bottom 2 teams probably making up the numbers when the finals are played.
So you dont see Adelaide in the hunt? :p
Nice work SP. I do worry about Collingwood...like the little girl with the little curl, when they are good they are very very good and when they are bad they are horrid.
Is that the opposition or self belief?
West Coast as you pointed out struggled without Judd , and lets be honest Geelong and Carlton lost those games ..but still the self belief is now there that when WC are in that situation they can come back
The rest I dont rate
SpringChoke
1 Jul 2006, 22:53
My genuine contenders are AFC and then Collingwood, Sydney, West Coast. My smokeys are Port Power and Melbourne. The rest are just making up the numbers.
SpringChoke
1 Jul 2006, 23:01
So you dont see Adelaide in the hunt? :p
Nice work SP. I do worry about Collingwood...like the little girl with the little curl, when they are good they are very very good and when they are bad they are horrid.
Is that the opposition or self belief?
West Coast as you pointed out struggled without Judd , and lets be honest Geelong and Carlton lost those games ..but still the self belief is now there that when WC are in that situation they can come back
The rest I dont rate
You would have to say the other 3 genuine premiership contenders WC, Syd and Collingwood all have glaring weaknesses. We are currently the stand in team of the competition. The way I see it, the biggest hurdle to us playing in the GF are injuries.
Glenno23
1 Jul 2006, 23:22
You would have to say the other 3 genuine premiership contenders WC, Syd and Collingwood all have glaring weaknesses. We are currently the stand in team of the competition. The way I see it, the biggest hurdle to us playing in the GF are injuries.
I would agree here Springy:thumbsu:
If we have the chance to play in another home QF and win it, then have a home prelim, you would think a GF is likely. This all depends on whether we get there. I think Craigy and the boys would have learnt a lot from last years finals series and won't let that happen again. I also think we are a better team than last year. But, it only takes a few more injuries to some guns and we might not be travelling as good.
Kane McGoodwin
2 Jul 2006, 20:17
My genuine contenders are AFC and then Collingwood, Sydney, West Coast. My smokeys are Port Power and Melbourne. The rest are just making up the numbers.
West Coast are still our main threat. After them, Sydney & Melbourne are both very even sides. Collingwood have no depth & will need to be near full strength to be a threat. I doubt Port will even make it with their run home. The Bullies & Tigers are more of a threat than Port. Cats & Saints are pretenders.
You would have to say the other 3 genuine premiership contenders WC, Syd and Collingwood all have glaring weaknesses. We are currently the stand in team of the competition. The way I see it, the biggest hurdle to us playing in the GF are injuries.
Or maybe even the stand out team Springy. :p
I agree with you though. Our last two games have been the complete performance where we have clinically dissected the opposition.
On current form we are head and shoulders above the opposition. However it's difficult to maintain that form every week and injuries can undo any team.
I wish the finals were being played next week.
Kane McGoodwin
2 Jul 2006, 20:31
Or maybe even the stand out team Springy. :p
I agree with you though. Our last two games have been the complete performance where we have clinically dissected the opposition.
On current form we are head and shoulders above the opposition. However it's difficult to maintain that form every week and injuries can undo any team.
I wish the finals were being played next week.
Yep. Our current form counts for nothing if we do another game like against the Saints come the finals. Still a long, long way to go, but things are currently well on track.
SpringChoke
2 Jul 2006, 20:53
How good are thew Bullies travelling. If they didn't have so many horrific injuries I would rate them a definite premiership contender.
SpringChoke
2 Jul 2006, 21:07
West Coast are still our main threat. After them, Sydney & Melbourne are both very even sides. Collingwood have no depth & will need to be near full strength to be a threat. I doubt Port will even make it with their run home. The Bullies & Tigers are more of a threat than Port. Cats & Saints are pretenders.
Of the teams currently sitting outside the top 6, I think Port are still the pick of the bunch. If they can keep the majority of their best players on the park then I think they are still a definite smokey. However, if they lose 2 or 3 of Tredrea, C Cornes, P and S Burg, Lade or Wakelin they could be in big trouble.
Kane McGoodwin
2 Jul 2006, 21:13
Of the teams currently sitting outside the top 6, I think Port are still the pick of the bunch. If they can keep the majority of their best players on the park then I think they are still a definite smokey. However, if they lose 2 or 3 of Tredrea, C Cornes, P and S Burg, Lade or Wakelin they could be in big trouble.
Don't get me wrong, I think Port are back on track ... but they have a hard run home. Having said that, if they make the finals, they will deserve it & will be in form. IMO, they will just miss, but will return to the finals next year.
Don't get me wrong, I think Port are back on track ... but they have a hard run home. Having said that, if they make the finals, they will deserve it & will be in form. IMO, they will just miss, but will return to the finals next year.
I'm in your camp on this one Kane.
They could still get there depending on which team wins what, but if it takes 12 wins to make it, then I'm pretty sure they won't. They have too many away games to win another 6 IMO.
You'd have to think their graph is on the rise after it bottomed out a few weeks back, and next year they'll be back there in the 8.
I've gone through the remaining rounds, tipping who I think will win each game. The ladder after round 22 as I predict it is as follows:
1. Adelaide 76 pts
2. West Coast 72
3. Collingwood 68
4. Melbourne 68
5. Footscray 60
6. Sydney 56
7. St Kilda 48
8. Fremantle 44
9. Brisbane 40
10. Richmond 40
11. Geelong 36
12. Hawthorn 32
13. The Evil Empire 28
14. North Melbourne 20
15. Carlton 12
16. Essendon 4
Teams which are level on points have been ordered based on their current percentages.
Based on this, 11 wins should be enough to qualify for the finals.
For the record, I have tipped Adelaide to lose only one more game for the season - against West Coast at Subiaco, though with West Coast's current poor form Adelaide may start that one as favourites!
SpringChoke
3 Jul 2006, 11:42
I've gone through the remaining rounds, tipping who I think will win each game. The ladder after round 22 as I predict it is as follows:
1. Adelaide 76 pts
2. West Coast 72
3. Collingwood 68
4. Melbourne 68
5. Footscray 60
6. Sydney 56
7. St Kilda 48
8. Fremantle 44
9. Brisbane 40
10. Richmond 40
11. Geelong 36
12. Hawthorn 32
13. The Evil Empire 28
14. North Melbourne 20
15. Carlton 12
16. Essendon 4
Teams which are level on points have been ordered based on their current percentages.
Based on this, 11 wins should be enough to qualify for the finals.
For the record, I have tipped Adelaide to lose only one more game for the season - against West Coast at Subiaco, though with West Coast's current poor form Adelaide may start that one as favourites!
I reckon the top 7 are just about set and can't see any team currently sitting from 8-12 dislodging the first 7. I reckon there are 4 teams Ricmond, Port, Freo and Geelong fighting it out for the 8th position.
For the record, I have tipped Adelaide to lose only one more game for the season - against West Coast at Subiaco, though with West Coast's current poor form Adelaide may start that one as favourites!
I think the Bullies will be better prepared against us come the game in Melbourne and I also think Melbourne will be fired up as well
My own feeling is that we will lose one of those three- but only one.
19-3 into the finals and we'll see what happens from there.
Stiffy_18
3 Jul 2006, 13:02
I want Port to finish 9th. That way they don't make the finals but still don't get a pick good enough to pick up the cream of the crop :D
SpringChoke
3 Jul 2006, 13:21
I want Port to finish 9th. That way they don't make the finals but still don't get a pick good enough to pick up the cream of the crop :D
It looks like you will get your wish. They will finish between 8-11th.
snakebite01
3 Jul 2006, 13:33
I want Port to finish 9th. That way they don't make the finals but still don't get a pick good enough to pick up the cream of the crop :D
Absolutely no chance of them finishing in the 8 IMO.
Still got away games against Geelong, St Kilda, Bulldogs, Kangaroos and Fremantle. Can't see them winning more than 2 of those.
And home games against Sydney, Richmond, Adelaide and Collingwood. Will drop atleast 1 of those, more likely 2.
That'll leave them with 10 wins and about 10th spot.
I want Port to finish 9th. That way they don't make the finals but still don't get a pick good enough to pick up the cream of the crop :D
Ahhhhhh, you're a right bastard Stiffy!! :D
I'm with you all the way though!! :thumbsu: :p
RoosterLad
3 Jul 2006, 13:53
We might get the chance to kill off their finals hopes...
Stiffy_18
3 Jul 2006, 15:39
It looks like you will get your wish. They will finish between 8-11th.
8 is no good and 11 and 10 is no good either. 9 is the number :D
8 is no good and 11 and 10 is no good either. 9 is the number :D
Don't rule out Richmond. They are hovering, and they own 9th. :D
The Crows Truth
3 Jul 2006, 18:26
West Coast are still our main threat. After them, Sydney & Melbourne are both very even sides. Collingwood have no depth & will need to be near full strength to be a threat. I doubt Port will even make it with their run home. The Bullies & Tigers are more of a threat than Port. Cats & Saints are pretenders.
Saints at full strength and form could trouble us. Remember last year? :eek:
Kane McGoodwin
3 Jul 2006, 20:30
Saints at full strength and form could trouble us. Remember last year? :eek:
Saints won't be at full strength as they have lost key players for the year. We were caught out with 2 key outs (Bock & Roo) for that game - this year we have increased depth. I reckon we have the Saints covered.
Don't rule out Richmond. They are hovering, and they own 9th. :D
Richmond will hold onto 7th... though this post may be quoted after this weekend with the 8 point game between Port and Richmond :o