View Full Version : It's simple: we must win our last 2 games or we miss out on the finals!!
SeinDude
27 Jan 2002, 19:58
The way I see it, after the result tonight, and South Africa getting the bonus point, the Aussies need to win the last 2 matches or we cant make the finals. It would require a tremendous amount of luck if we made the finals with less than 4 wins, so lets hope Steve Waugh & the boys rise to the challenge and prove why they have been the best team in the world!!!
New Zealand: 17 points from 6 games
South Africa: 13 points from 6 games
Australia: 9 points from 6 games
SeinDude
kretchy
27 Jan 2002, 20:16
If we win both we will make it probably but I think we may still be able to get in if we lose against the kiwis but we would have to rely on them beating the south africans in Perth. Then if we beat south africa in the final match then we go equal on points with them and go through because in our matches between us and south africa we would have won more. Or we could beat south africa and obtain a bonus point and go through.
All teams could end up on 17pts.
Who has the better N.R.R out of Aus & S.A ?
wagstaff
27 Jan 2002, 21:54
Actually, that's not correct. Australia can afford to lose against the Kiwis and still make the finals as long as South Africa lose to New Zealand in Perth and Australia defeats South Africa next Sunday.
On the other hand, even if they beat New Zealand on Tuesday, losing to South Africa on Sunday would see them get knocked out.
SeinDude
27 Jan 2002, 22:17
Originally posted by wagstaff
Actually, that's not correct. Australia can afford to lose against the Kiwis and still make the finals as long as South Africa lose to New Zealand in Perth and Australia defeats South Africa next Sunday.
On the other hand, even if they beat New Zealand on Tuesday, losing to South Africa on Sunday would see them get knocked out.
Wagstaff,
That's why I said we'd have to have some unbelievable luck to make the finals with 3 wins. I think we need to win the last 2 to be assured. A bonus point may be something we need another of as well, especially if all teams end up with 4 wins.
SeinDude
evade28
27 Jan 2002, 22:22
you know what i found amusing, b4 aust had won a game i read in the paper that RSAs vice captain reckoned that RSA are the best one dayer team in the world or some sh1t like that. gee id hate to crow after 2 or 3 games.... :rolleyes:
blurton
28 Jan 2002, 05:42
Does anyone know the respective run-rates of the 3 teams?
SeinDude
28 Jan 2002, 07:38
POINTS TABLE:
New Zealand: 17 points from 6 games, net run rate of +0.036
South Africa: 13 points from 6 games, net run rate of -0.155
Australia: 9 points from 6 games, net run rate of +0.087
SeinDude
blurton
28 Jan 2002, 08:52
Cheers SeinDude. :cool:
Originally posted by SeinDude
POINTS TABLE:
New Zealand: 17 points from 6 games, net run rate of +0.036
South Africa: 13 points from 6 games, net run rate of -0.155
Australia: 9 points from 6 games, net run rate of +0.087
SeinDude
Run rate could save australia. I reackon we are going to see all teams on 17 points, as Australia should win today against NZ without cairns. SA have the wood over NZ, and Australia have the wood over SA.
Since SA will win one, loose one, you'd expect their run rate to stay the same.
Australia will win two, boosting their already good run rate (so they finish on top).
And NZ would not want to loose by too much as their rate could fall below SA.
blurton
30 Jan 2002, 05:45
What determines who goes through? If all the sides end up with 17 points then what? Is it run rate? What if one side had say 18 points and the other 2 had 17. Say Australia had 18 points, would the other finalist be determined by better run rate or would the fact that SA had beaten NZ more often than vica versa mean that SA would go through?
red+black
30 Jan 2002, 08:12
it's quite clearly stated on cricinfo what the scenarios are, but it really sucks
if teams finish on equal points, then they are separated as such
1. the team with the most wins
2. the respective wins/losses v the other team(s)
3. the team with the most bonus points
4. the team with the best net run rate
surely, in a sane world, this decree should merely state
1. the team with the most points
2. the team with the best net run rate
and not impossible, but two teams are not going to end up with the same net run rate. why the hell should it matter who you have beaten or lost too. so we may end up 3-1 v SA and 1-3 v NZ, so what?
Fat Red
30 Jan 2002, 08:15
100% agree red and black.
I HATE it in any competition when things are decided on head-to-head record for the last spot--it makes no sense at all.
God knows what Dan thinks of it!
What's wrong with NRR as a decided--until now we haven't even had bonus points and it's always worked OK.
Fat Red
30 Jan 2002, 08:17
And whoever thought that formula up doesn't even understand the points system.
If the teams can't be split on points, and can't be split on who has the most wins, they're always going to have the same number of bonus points. So why have that in your formula?
GoEagles
30 Jan 2002, 16:58
I think South Africa will defeat New Zealand in Perth on Friday, leaving Sunday's game to be a mini semi-final to see who plays New Zealand. All 3 teams can still make the final, although South Africa would have to win by a fair bit.
one down one to go ;)
i reckon south africa on friday to win and australia on sunday to win....
Originally posted by GoEagles
All 3 teams can still make the final, although South Africa would have to win by a fair bit.
I would love to see a final between all 3 teams! "And here's Warne to Cairns and Pollock. Oh and Cairns has pushed it onto the off side BUT WHAT'S THIS?? Pollock has played a further shot straight to the fielder and Cairns is going to be run out! Oh dear and he's not happy. New Zealand 4/35, South Africa 5/98 and Australia very happy"
red+black
1 Feb 2002, 20:42
proves not necessarily that the bonus points system is a joke, but that the rules of separating teams on equal points is a joke.
Let's assume that NZ lose to SA tonight yet do NOT concede a bonus point. Scenarios for Sunday (from a South African perspective):
a) beat Australia - SA 21, NZ 17, AUS 13- qualify for the finals.
b) lose to Australia, no bonus point - AUS 17, NZ 17, SA 17 -probably do not qualify for the finals (worst NRR).
c) lose to Australia, with a bonus point - AUS 18, NZ 17, SA 17 - qualify for the finals (3-1 record v NZ).
So we could have a situation where if SA look like losing, it is in their best interests to lose so badly as to concede a bonus point. Doing so will grant them progress to the finals, go for the win and miss out but not concede a bonus point, and they will probably miss the finals as they have the lowest net run rate.
Whoever decided on the rules (probably called McIntyre) is an absolute idiot.
As I speak, NZ is 4/111, 106 shy of this scenario being a distinct possibility on Sunday.
red+black
1 Feb 2002, 21:43
things not looking good. 8/156 needing another 61 to avoid the bonus point.
i think SA have wrapped up that bonus point... not looking good at all :(
GoEagles
3 Feb 2002, 23:58
Originally posted by Yianni
I would love to see a final between all 3 teams! "And here's Warne to Cairns and Pollock. Oh and Cairns has pushed it onto the off side BUT WHAT'S THIS?? Pollock has played a further shot straight to the fielder and Cairns is going to be run out! Oh dear and he's not happy. New Zealand 4/35, South Africa 5/98 and Australia very happy"
Not too sure if you were having a dig at me mate, but I said
All 3 teams can still make the final which before Friday was still possible. I never said All 3 teams will play in the final.
Anyways I loved your commentary :D