Round 21 Face Off - Western Bulldogs v St Kilda

[Kildonan]

I am participating in a discussion in a thread on the Western Bulldogs board of the same name. Link (http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?t=263604)

I will copy some or all of the posts here, but I would ask you to post replies in the Bulldogs forum so that we can get some good hearted banter going.

Please be polite and try not to take offence if someone posts something that offends you. Just report it and ignore.

[Kildonan]

Friday Night Football, Bulldogs vs Saints, a chance for either club to absolutely nail down a finals spot going heading into the last round. Both clubs, who between them have seen more heartache than glory in years gone by but with mindsets and playing lists to change all that in the coming seasons, are set to play out what I think should be an absolute cracker of a game.
Both clubs have endured significant injury concerns throughout the year, but have still held their nerve to position themselves in the penultimate round for a tilt in September.
St.Kilda are obviously farther down the track than us in their re-emergence as a successful side, and have advantages over us in key areas going into the game. They are therefore deserved favourites. However as we all have seen this does not automatically ensure a win, and there are no doubt ways to victory for us if we can capitalise.

The last time we played we remained in the contest but I got the impression that the Saints were in control for most of the encounter and seemed to have an answer for all we could throw at them, plus some.
The big things I remember from that game were how ineffective we were from centre clearances. We were totally bereft of drive out of the middle all game, and all down to the relentless pressure of Dal Santo, Hayes, Thompson, Ball and Harvey. And with first and quick use out of the midfield Gehrig had a much easier time of it. Goddard was also very important with his run out of the back and through the centre and Riewoldt took marks at will around the ground.

The Saints will be missing this time round for our encounter Hayes, McGuire, Thompson & Gram whilst the Dogs will be without Murphy, Hahn, Eagleton, Morgan, and Higgins with possibly either Montgomery or Giansiracusa to return.

If the Dogs are to get over the line then first and foremost we must win the midfield duel. With Minson back for this return clash in the ruck could prove decisive in changing the balance of midfield ball in our favour. Minson was important in the middle during the Dogs fightback against the Crows during the 3rd Qtr.

Street and Skipper were collectively beaten against Blake, despite Street clearly dominating the hit outs. Blake however influenced the situation when the ball hit the ground and greatly assisted his midfielders to win and effectively clear the ensuing ground ball.
Minson has a chance to alter this and get the advantage going to West, Cooney and Cross. Equally these guys need to assert themselves in the centre square and not allow Dal Santo, Harvey, Ball and Co. to get to the ground ball first. Easier said than done…. But they need to at least curb them from getting more than 50% of the contested ground ball from the centre. Look for Boyd to continue his good form at breaking the oppositions midfield run and creating counterattack situations.

The height difference in key positions still favours the Saint’s and ultimately gives them more options. Harris would be the obvious choice for Gehrig despite the G –Train towelling him up a couple of times. However if Minson and the midfield Corp can stem the Saint’s in the midfield this will assist Harris in curbing Gehrig as there will be less space and more time and assistance for Harris if it’s not coming in quickly.

Maguire’s unfortunate injury provides the Saints with their own height dilemmas down back, and whilst this doesn’t necessarily disadvantage them against our smaller forwards, he is still a talented tall that will require some replacing. If we are winning the midfield contest as above, then Robbins, Johnson and Grant become important. And if Cooney is being tagged by Baker, look for Adam to try and push forward as much as possible. Last week showcases just what he can do both as an on-baller and as a viable forward threat. A tag now may not necessarily negate his influence, if he can push forward with success.

With Kosi making a successful & well-deserved comeback 2 weeks ago, he would ordinarily loom as the game turner especially given his performance last year against us. If he is not yet up to an all over ground role, then I think Riewoldt will be called upon. I think that if Riewoldt is used in this role then perhaps either Hargrave or Morris should look to go with him. Hargrave not only has the aerial dexterity to go with Riewoldt, but also has the pace and stamina to run with him. Furthermore he can also hurt on the rebound.
Morris is another consideration, as he has shown he can beat taller and strong overhead opponents on a number of occasions. However his value would be better served for us down back to help Harris, not being pushed up the ground by a roving Riewoldt only for Saints to then kick deeper to Gehrig & Kosi!!

It goes without saying that we will need to run the lines as much as possible and for 4 Quarters. The success of Gilbee, Griffen and McMahon to create run out of the back and through the middle will be crucial. Last time we met they were not as influential and from memory made many skill errors. They will need to hit their targets and move the ball with speed and confidence through the lines this time round. Their combined form of last week would make a profound difference to the result this time.

Dogs by 7 points in another close one!!

Great post.

[Kildonan]

The Match: Western Bulldogs v St Kilda

The Venue: Telstra Dome

The Time: Friday Night

Telstra Dome co-tenants, 7th v 8th battle it out in an 8 point match* for what should be a final 8 spot, even for the loser, but the endeavour is there for both teams to position themselves for a possible top 4 spot should Freo or Melbourne drop a game.

These two clubs have played many a great match. The Saints fans will fondly remember the winning streak, but the Doggies will remember taking on St Kilda just after that and beating them in round 12 2004. :mad:

Our last 5 encounters:

Round 6, 06-May-2006 at Telstra Dome : St Kilda vs Western Bulldogs 92 - 78
Round 14, 03-Jul-2005 at MCG : Western Bulldogs vs St Kilda 98 - 116
Round 12, 12-Jun-2004 at MCG : Western Bulldogs vs St Kilda 103 - 80
Round 21, 24-Aug-2003 at York Park : St Kilda vs Western Bulldogs 95 - 30
Round 6, 04-May-2003 at Telstra Dome : Western Bulldogs vs St Kilda 85 - 100

[Kildonan]

Where our heads are at: The Doggies have lost three of their last five matches in what seemed to be a disappointing end to a brave and exciting season. Then they met Adelaide having just a six-day break after playing in the heat and humidity of Darwin the week before, to run all over the Crows. The win was even more remarkable in that they trailed by five goals early in the third quarter.

The Saints have turned their season around after being 6 and 6 at the break.
We won the next 5 before a final quarter fade out to lose the WCE. A week later we bounced back to comfortably defeat Geelong (whose season was on the line) then we met Fremantle in Perth. The Saints shot to an early lead then were completely and utterly outclassed, unable to even put another goal on the board in the first half (after the 4 minute mark of the first quarter). The game a foregone conclusion, we battled away but were unable to even win a quarter. The majority of our goals came from free kicks.

[Kildonan]

Historical Perspective: These two clubs have met 139 times resulting in 69 St Kilda victories, 68 Bulldog victories and 2 draws.

The Challenge: The Doggies have often fancied themselves over the Saints, but recent history shows that the Saints are a formidable opponent even when they seem down. The secret to beating St Kilda is to play a tough hard tackling game and maintain the pressure or the possession for the entire match.

The Saints know they've played a match after they've played the Doggies. It's always a tough encounter. We have been burned by the Freo result and will be out to show that this was an anomaly rather than a soft end to our season.

[Kildonan]

The Saints Squad:
A raft of minor injuries make the selection of a likely team very difficult this week.

Official Injury List:

Blake, ribs, test.
Clarke X, hip, test.
Hamill, knee, test.
Pfitzner, calf, test.
Powell, knee soreness, test.
Schwarze, hamstring tightness, test.
Sweeney, corked leg, test.
Watts, ankle, test.
Ferguson, quad tightness, 1 week.
Thompson, aductor, 1-2 weeks.
Hayes, ACL reconstruction, season.
Maguire, fractured leg, season.

There is no mention of Ackland or Gram but both must have question marks.
There is also speculation as to whether Luke Ball will be able to again front up after looking seriously impeded against Fremantle.
Hudghton is also carrying an ankle injury which is hoped to improve by Friday.

Other players in the mix:

Barry Brooks - the big ruckman apparently had a good game in the VFL
Sam Gilbert - defender dropped for the Geelong and Freo matches, played well in the VFL
Andrew McQualter - not sure if he was reported in the VFL
Mark McGough - ball magnet midfielder with poor disposal
James Gwilt - utility dropped for the Freo match, played fairly in the VFL

ST KILDA
B: Baker, Hudghton, Voss
HB: Gram, Rix, S.Fisher
C: Montagna, Ball, Fiora
HF: X.Clarke, Riewoldt, Harvey
F: Milne, Gehrig, Koschitzke
FOLL: ?Ackland, Dal Santo, Goddard
I/C: R.Clarke, L.Fisher, Peckett,
IN: Gwilt, Gilbert, ?Ackland, ?Hamill, ?Powell
OUT: Thompson, ?Gram, ?Ball, ?Blake, ?X Clarke,

The squad above is based on how they lined up in the Freo match.
There are likely to be a number of changes due to the disappointing performance of that arrangement.

The defence: St Kilda's defence has been one of the best performed in the AFL. Led by Max Hudghton at full back, with Leigh and Sam Fisher, Jason Gram, Steven Baker and Matthew Maguire, it has been frugal and solid. This group has been so successful that Brett Voss was freed up to go forward and take Hamill's role of hard nut defensive forward.
The loss of Maguire has left a hole which has been hard to fill.
Against Geelong we were missing Leigh Fisher, and Steven Baker as well. Michael Rix did well filling in at CHB in that match. Gilbert and Voss filled the other spots. Next week Freo had done their homework and were able to exploit Rix's weaknesses in that spot, so Blake was moved there until he was injured. It becomes a real dilemma - Sam Fisher is capable of filling the role, but we don't want to sacrifice the drive he provides out of the backline off the flanks. So who to CHB? Koschitzke - too much to ask if he is expected to ruck, Riewoldt - only if you want to sacrifice our most damaging forward target. If Hudghton takes Grant and Leigh Fisher takes Johnson - a big ask and a dangerous one, that would settle the structure of the defence.

[Kildonan]

It goes without saying that we will need to run the lines as much as possible and for 4 Quarters. The success of Gilbee, Griffen and McMahon to create run out of the back and through the middle will be crucial.

Exactly YHF, these three players will be very important to influence the game from the beginning. If they can all gel together from the start...the others will all follow suit. Such an important game for both teams. Can't wait to go!

Thanks for the great report YHF and also St Kildonan. :)

Great thread for what is shaping as an exciting and important game.

I think it really comes down to if we can curb their talls while still providing the run.

After watching the doggie-crow game and the saints -freo game i really believe we(saints) will be hard pressed to run the game out as strongly as the bullies did againtst the crows. We appear slow compared to the dogs and if as reported elsewhere J Gram is injured then we are in hot water. I am really hoping that we( the saints) can regroup this week and have a red hot go on Friday night cos i know the Dogs will. Our record on a Friday night is very poor, 1 win from past 7 fri nite games i think. If we do get rolled i just pray we come out with no more injuries(both teams i mean here) Good luck to both sides and GO THE MIGHTY SAINTS

saying all this though i have faith in my club and tip saints by 23 points
Hidden Text

[Kildonan]

The Midfield:
The Saints’ midfield has been a real strength of the team.
The first liners of Hayes, Ball, Dal Santo, and Harvey are amongst the best in the league. Add to that renowned tagger, Baker, and tough nuts in Thompson and Powell and you have a nice mix. The wingers have included Montagna and Fiora mainly. Both have significant qualities to add to the squad – significantly a squad not renowned for its speedsters.

The loss of Hayes has been the single most devastating injury to have hit the Saints this year. He was in Brownlow medal form (which will be shown not to be an exaggeration when they do the count) before the round 9 ACL injury.
Luke Ball has been hampered by injury all season, he has not been able to produce the pace he is capable of and has yet to be able to kick it over a jam tin.
Andrew Thompson has been a significant player for the Saints after turning his waning career around 2 years ago. Grant Thomas engineered a role for Thompson playing him off the bench along with Powell, both played tagging roles and were required to do a lot of the in and under work. Thompson injured a quad in the Freo match and will be up against it making it back into the team for the finals. Powell has been disappointing this year and was dropped, seemingly his career over. Powell must have done some soul searching and resolved to apply himself to the fullest of his abilities. He trained the house down forcing the selectors to include him back into the team. Unluckily he injured a knee and is now just returning from rehab.

Our depth midfield players include Andrew McQualter and Mark McGough both would be welcome inclusions if Powell is not cleared to play.

Our strength has become our weakness. Our midfield is not the team destroying unit that it used to be. Dal Santo is tagged every match, Harvey still goes great guns, but from there we have a compromised Ball, and fill in players. Goddard has been given a run in the midfield. Were we to have our full list, this would work well, but he is better placed as a loose man in defence role, running forward and using his immaculate disposal skills to thrust the ball forward in attack.

[Kildonan]

The Forwards:

The Saints have one of the most devastating forwards in the league.

When on song.

The combination of Fraser Gehrig (dual Coleman medallist), Nick Riewoldt, Aaron Hamill, Stephen Milne, a resting midfielder and a flanker/midfielder has been effective and exciting. Throw in Justin Koschitzke as mobile mismatch to draw a defender or grab a nice mark and you have a foward line capable of doing justice to the quality ball coming from the midfield.

This combination has not been available all season and will make its 2006 debut against the Doggies.

The Saints supporters have almost forgotten how good Hamill is. Aaron Hamill is a MAJOR plus for us when he returns. His presence on the field is enormous. I am confident he will go about his game with the same intensity as he always has. He is almost obsessive about getting the ball and keeping it in the forward line, without him, it is often cleared. He protects our other forwards with his physicality and menace. He adds a huge measure of confidence to the others, knowing that Sammy's got their back. He is a great contested mark of the ball. A great contested possession getter. He demands a solid defender (hence giving another of our players a better match up) and he is a natural leader. Although not a lot can be expected of Hamill in his first game back, his presence will do wonders for the team.

Kosi ranging forward will also be a big plus. He's had 2 games back now and although still not quite match fit, will begin to increase his output heading towards the finals.

Gehrig is huge. One of the strongest men in football. He demands a strong defender with a bit of pace. Even without kicking a goal he has drawn a man away for Riewoldt, but catch him on a good day and he can win the game off his own boot.

Riewoldt is an out and out champion. He keeps presenting when all around him are dead on their feet. A heart the size of Phar Lap's, he is recognised as one of the bravest footballers in the game.

This is the area the Saints expect the most improvement from. Our forward line has been neutralised somewhat due to the structure being lost in the absence of Hamill and intense flooding (a known neutraliser of Riewoldt's influence).

Grant Thomas will have the structure of his forward line back.

[Kildonan]

Top thread as always :thumbsu:

Really looking forward to this game. Friday night football between two sides keen to cement their spot in the 8 - should be a good crowd too. I would think both sides will be happy to be back playing at the familiar Telstra Dome. I reckon St Kilda will come to the game breathing fire after their less than grand effort against Freo on the weekend. Can the Doggies maintain that excellent mind set from last Saturday? Hamill back for the Saints is a huge in as the whole team seems to stand taller when he's out there. For us, I'm looking forward to having Gia back - great onfield leader.

Should be a cracker as they say.

It’s almost a given that following a big win, Footscray plays poorly for a number of games afterwards. Let's hope that syndrone is gone. The qualities that got the club over the line last week were ferocious pressure and adventure added to a bewildering coaching gaff. If the blokes are switched on and if Thomas does something stupid, we’ll win. I suspect that Giansiracusa will play, if for no other reason than the psychological impact of his hit on Koschitzke last time. Who knows, he might earn a 50 metre penalty at a crucial time. I enjoy watching Banger’s work and with Dal Santo, Ball and Riewoldt against Cooney, Griffen, West and Johnson, there’s plenty for those who just love to watch a champion at work. St Kilda looked off the boil last week. I’m hoping for a game of skill, speed, derring do and adventure spiced by a home team win.

Hidden Text

[Kildonan]

Great read St Kildonan, Do you think Baker will lineup this week in the back pocket again to start, and move into a midfield lockdown role if a Cooney or West were influencing the game to a significant degree in the midfield?
I'd be disappointed if Bakes wasn't in the middle of the ground and standing next to Scott West at the start of the game.

He does have a good record of shutting down opposition small forwards. For example in the last couple of years he has done well against Gary Ablett Jnr. Farmer was a similar match-up last week but got the better of him. Obviously it didn't help that we were getting smashed in the centre of the ground.

However he is at his most effective in the centre and tagging the oppositions best midfielder. He doesn't have great speed which you would think would be a problem against a guy like Adam Cooney but it hasn't stopped him tagging Chris Judd out of games in the past. Still, West is the guy we need to stop otherwise we'll be smashed in the clearances once again. As StKildonan indicated we haven't recovered from the loss of Hayes.

I agree word for word with what Sainter said: He should have a role on one of the midfielders, probably West right from the start.

Our midfield is our weakness. If he can contribute by reducing West's impact and offering a link through the middle when we have the ball, then he has done his job.
He often does line up in the defence though so it wouldn't surprise me if that's where he starts.

[Borgsta]

Been a great read so far Stkildonan, so thanks again!

To all other Saints fans please feel free to come over and share your thoughts. Should be a cracking game.

[Kildonan]

Like Pugsta indicated, it should be a good crowd. Something in excess of 40,000, I would think.

Running the lines will indeed be critical. We need to run the Saints off their feet. And after we've been running, we have to continue to run. The likes of Griffen, McMahon, Gilbee, Cooney and even Power have to run as if ther are being chased by an African stampede of Hyenas.

On top of that, we need to be twice as solid if defence than what we're used to. Our backline must stand tall like Ayers Rock. Brian Harris must play in front of Gehrig and lead him to the ball. He then has to break away like a prisoner trying to break out of a jail cell. I'd like to see more run from the likes of Morris and Hargrave as well, when the opporunity presents itself. They need to be like hungry Siberian Tigers on the prowl. Stand on their men, wait for it... wait.... OK, go... charge for it!

We will run, and we will continue to run as if our finals campaign depends on it. Oh, wait a minute - IT DOES!

Carn Doggies!

When I think of playing St Kilda, despite all the talents of Riewoldt, Ball, Dal Santo, Goddard etc, my first impression is of Thompson and Baker molesting West. I've nothing against honest tagging but, gee, the umpires should give blokes who are after the ball abit of protection. I hope Thompson doesn't play and Baker follows Cooney to full forward.

Earlier this year Riewoldt killed us playing a loose role as extra man in front of the backs, mopping up the ball before it got into our forward 50. I wonder if Thomas will consider trying that trick again and if Rocket has a plan to counter it.

You all might be interested in this article about how the saints have their third 6 day break in a row - http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,20206192-36035,00.html. I didn't want to paste it in because - being a newbie - I'm not sure what protocol is. Most important part is that this is our second 6 day break in a row. We've had three other streaks of 6 day breaks with these results:
L-W-L between rounds 5 and 7
W-L rounds 11 and 12
W-L rounds 17 and 18
L-? rounds 20 and 21

Whilst 6 day breaks does impact on the preparation and performance of a club, I don't think that it applies this time. Both teams are coming off multiple 6 day breaks. Both teams have professional fitness staff to overcome these sort of difficulties.

The Doggies have to maintain their form, the Saints have to regain theirs.

The strength of the Doggies is their relentless pace and pressure.
The challenge for the Saints is to outpressure the Doggies.

The strength of the Saints is their talented tall forwards.
The challenge for the doggies is to deny them supply and run them ragged.

The coaching will be under scrutiny. Spies will probably be reporting back to the respective camps. This is the pointy end of the season and it's getting serious.

[bubblegoose]

Great work as always StKildonan :thumbsu:

[nicko016]

Let's hope we can exploit their lack of height. In our forward line Harris will go to Gehrig and Hargrave to Riewodlt. This still leaves Hamill and Kosi. Given there lack of height forward Rix won't be needed at CHB which will free up Kosi as Ackland and Rix will share the ruck. Kosi will be able to play forward and expose their backline. Minson might have to go to him or even Grant. Both situations are wins for us. And then there's Hamill. Morris might have to go to him and that is a good matchup for us.

[Doggy]

Let's hope we can exploit their lack of height. In our forward line Harris will go to Gehrig and Hargrave to Riewodlt. This still leaves Hamill and Kosi. Given there lack of height forward Rix won't be needed at CHB which will free up Kosi as Ackland and Rix will share the ruck. Kosi will be able to play forward and expose their backline. Minson might have to go to him or even Grant. Both situations are wins for us. And then there's Hamill. Morris might have to go to him and that is a good matchup for us.

Morris is taller than you may think, and plays tall also. He is a good matchup for all of the saints forwards, no matter who it is

[Kildonan]

From a Saints perspective this is a game we can not afford to lose. When we play the Doggies it is always a tough, tight, physical battle and you can bet your house we will get more of the same this time.
In comes Hamill, Powell and Ackland all big inclusions with the major surprise being Ackland. It seems quite obvious that the Saints game plan will be to stack the forward 50 with big, strong marking targets and try and beat the Doggies into submission.
With both of Ackland and Rix in the line-up Kosi will have to be used as a permanent Key forward maybe freeing Riewoldt up to boost a struggling midfield. This could work but first use in the middle is going to win this game and we will struggle in that area.
The Saints have a very under done line up with X.Clarke, R.Clarke, Powell and of course Kosi and Hamill playing so little football this season. This will be a major concern with the hard, fast running Bulldogs getting first hands on the ball at stoppages.
In the Doggies forward line I believe Hudghton will go to Johnson and that will be a great match-up. Johnson is a super, super player and an absolute delight to watch while Maxy has a very good record against smaller forwards of Johnsons calibre. I think other important match-ups from the Saints perspective will be.
Powell - West
Baker - Cooney
L.Fisher - Robbins.
Grant will be an interesting one... Will he be forced to go back into defence to help combat such a big Saints forward line??
I'm predicting the Saints to come out breathing fire and jumping to an early lead. The Doggies to come fighting back in the 2nd half but the Saints to just hold on.
Looking forward to a ripper game... Saints by 9 points.

Having a look at the Adelaide match, the teams were quite even.
I watched the replay and it really looked like Adelaide would come away with it, but a strong last quarter by the Bulldogs was the decider.

The stats reflect the closeness of the match (Pro-Stats (http://www.pro-stats.com.au/psw/web/game_stats?mid=2006155)).

However there are one or two points I take out of these stats:

First possessions - won by Bulldogs despite losing hitouts - Saints have worst record in league

Contested possessions - decisive win by Bulldogs - Saints must win this stat

1% - decisive win by Bulldogs - shows how much the team wants to win

Bounces - decisive win by Bulldogs - Saints 2nd best in league (to WB)

[nicko016]

Morris is taller than you may think, and plays tall also. He is a good matchup for all of the saints forwards, no matter who it is

He is, he's probably two inches taller than Hamill but I think it's probably more strength that Hamill would have over Morris. However, Morris might go with Riewodlt instead. But, if Morris did play on Hamill, you could exploit Hamill with Morris's run out of defence.

[Doggy]

He is, he's probably two inches taller than Hamill but I think it's probably more strength that Hamill would have over Morris. However, Morris might go with Riewodlt instead. But, if Morris did play on Hamill, you could exploit Hamill with Morris's run out of defence.

I can nearly guarantee it will be Harris on Gherig, Hargrave on Riewoldt, and Morris on either Hamill or Kosi. The other will be taken by Montgomery (of which i was hoping he wouldn't come in)

[Kildonan]

WESTERN BULLDOGS v ST KILDA
Friday, 7:40pm AEST, Telstra Dome

WESTERN BULLDOGS
B: McMahon, Harris, Morris
HB: Smith, Hargrave, Gilbee
C: Cooney, S.West, Ray
HF: Boyd, Johnson, Power
F: Robbins, Grant, Giansiracusa
FOLL: Street, Cross, Griffen
I/C: Birss, Faulkner, Minson, Montgomery
EMG: Addison, McGuinness, Wight
IN: Giansiracusa, Montgomery
OUT: Addison, Wight

ST KILDA
B: Voss, Hudghton, Baker
HB: Gram, S.Fisher, L.Fisher
C: Goddard, Ball, Montagna
HF: X.Clarke, Riewoldt, Hamill
F: Milne, Gehrig, Ackland
FOLL: Koschitzke, Dal Santo, Harvey
I/C: R.Clarke, Peckett, Powell, Rix
EMG: Fiora, Gilbert, McQualter
IN: Ackland, Hamill, Powell
OUT: Blake (ribs), Thompson (adductor), Fiora

Field umpires: Allen, Kennedy, Jeffrey

[Doggy]

WESTERN BULLDOGS v ST KILDA
Friday, 7:40pm AEST, Telstra Dome

WESTERN BULLDOGS
B: McMahon, Harris, Morris
HB: Smith, Hargrave, Gilbee
C: Cooney, S.West, Ray
HF: Boyd, Johnson, Power
F: Robbins, Grant, Giansiracusa
FOLL: Street, Cross, Griffen
I/C: Birss, Faulkner, Minson, Montgomery
EMG: Addison, McGuinness, Wight
IN: Giansiracusa, Montgomery
OUT: Addison, Wight

ST KILDA
B: Voss, Hudghton, Baker
HB: Gram, S.Fisher, L.Fisher
C: Goddard, Ball, Montagna
HF: X.Clarke, Riewoldt, Hamill
F: Milne, Gehrig, Ackland
FOLL: Koschitzke, Dal Santo, Harvey
I/C: R.Clarke, Peckett, Powell, Rix
EMG: Fiora, Gilbert, McQualter
IN: Ackland, Hamill, Powell
OUT: Blake (ribs), Thompson (adductor), Fiora

Field umpires: Allen, Kennedy, Jeffrey

If that is how they line-up in the first quarter, Morris may go to Ackland, and Gilbee to Clarke

[Kildonan]

Match ups?

WESTERN BULLDOGS v ST KILDA

B: McMahon, Harris, Morris
F: Milne, Gehrig, Ackland

HB: Gilbee, Hargrave, Smith
HF: X.Clarke, Riewoldt, Hamill

C: Cooney, S.West, Ray
C: Montagna, Ball, Goddard

HF: Boyd, Johnson, Power
HB: L.Fisher, S.Fisher, Gram

F: Robbins, Grant, Giansiracusa
B: Voss, Hudghton, Baker

FOLL: Street, Cross, Griffen
FOLL: Koschitzke, Dal Santo, Harvey

I/C: Birss, Faulkner, Minson, Montgomery
I/C: Peckett, Powell, Rix, R.Clarke

EMG: Addison, McGuinness, Wight
EMG: Fiora, Gilbert, McQualter

[Kildonan]

If that is how they line-up in the first quarter, Morris may go to Ackland, and Gilbee to Clarke
Snap

[Doggy]

Don't think they will line up that way though.. Just a suspicion

[Kildonan]

Stange prediction zone ahead, but I believe the only way we will beat St Kilda is if Thomas tries to stretch us for height in the St Kilda forward line.

It is no secret our run off HB is our major trump card. We need one match up that seemingly puts us at a height disadvantage (Gilbee often gets this task), then turn this disadvantage into a speed advantage on the rebound.
This time, I'd give Griffen first crack at being the linebreaker. Hamill is important to the Saints, but will not be fully match fit and offers one weakness to expose. Griffen vs Hamill (flounder now has the size to spoil the bigger guys), Harris to play a selfish game and just worry about Gehrig, Morris to get first crack at Riewoldt & Hargrave on Kosi. If Ackland plays forward, offer Gilbee and tell him to play his "MCG" game (running off bigger opponents).

Last game there were two loose Saints defenders for most of the game, and we simply couldn't score. We need to generate goals from the midfield and defense, because I can't see a clear victory in the forward line, unless a Cooney or Gia are tried deep forward. Goose is a massive loss for the Saints, but given we don't have a permanent CHF this is one game the Saints can cover him.

As much as I want a close one, I sense whichever team turns up switched on will win easily. We tend to lose after a big Victory, Saints will also struggle after a couple of 6 day breaks & travel. Toss a coin.
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[Kildonan]

The match was essentially won in the coaching box. Grant Thomas capitalised mercilessly on the Bulldog injury depleted squad's lack of talls. His game plan drew Harris out of his comfort zone into the wide open spaces of CHB. The other Saints talls kept the Bulldog defence widely spaced apart so that double teaming against Riewoldt was negated. The move wouldn't have been effective if Gehrig didn't demand the best defender. So a great game by him was essential. The Saints midfield, although somewhat depleted themselves, got on top in the second quarter and that resulted in the 10 goal blitz. The game was not over, but the Bulldogs could not build momentum to rally a genuine fight back and the Saints cruised away to a comfortable win.

Best:

5 F Gehrig
4 N Dal Santo
3 D Cross
2 B Johnson
1 L Montagna

The Bulldogs didn't have enough contributors, the Saints had a fairly even effort that a number of players could be considered unlucky not to be in the votes: Harvey, Riewoldt, S Fisher, and Goddard in particular, but also Ball, Gram and Milne were all good too. The next best Doggie might have been Wight, the late inclusion, who showed genuine eagerness.

[Fossie 32]

Well done Saints, good luck for the finals.

[Kildonan]

Thanks Fossie - good luck to you as well.

[Kildonan]

Having a look at the Adelaide match, the teams were quite even.
I watched the replay and it really looked like Adelaide would come away with it, but a strong last quarter by the Bulldogs was the decider.

The stats reflect the closeness of the match (Pro-Stats (http://www.pro-stats.com.au/psw/web/game_stats?mid=2006155)).

However there are one or two points I take out of these stats:

First possessions - won by Bulldogs despite losing hitouts - Saints have worst record in league

Contested possessions - decisive win by Bulldogs - Saints must win this stat

1% - decisive win by Bulldogs - shows how much the team wants to win

Bounces - decisive win by Bulldogs - Saints 2nd best in league (to WB)

From Pro-Stats (http://www.pro-stats.com.au/psw/web/game_stats?mid=2006161):

First possessions - decisive win by the Saints (I consider winning first possessions one of the most important goals for any club)

Contested possessions - decisive win by Saints - great to see.

1% - tied - both teams had a high number of 1 %ers - which shows that despite the scoreline, the Doggies didn't give up.