View Full Version : James Kelly Trade
Would James Kelly prove to be of any value to Essendon. If we were to pick him up what would you trade? I would say pick 18 or 20. :thumbsu: :thumbsd:
mcphee_is_a_gun
1 Oct 2006, 22:10
Would James Kelly prove to be of any value to Essendon. If we were to pick him up what would you trade? I would say pick 18 or 20. :thumbsu: :thumbsd:
Pass.
Shane Hird
1 Oct 2006, 22:17
Would James Kelly prove to be of any value to Essendon. If we were to pick him up what would you trade? I would say pick 18 or 20. :thumbsu: :thumbsd:
no 2 that idea
Barnsey3150
1 Oct 2006, 22:18
f*** that..kelly too many injuries
Donsforever
1 Oct 2006, 22:37
I would pass on Kelly completely but if we were to pick him up there is no way we'd give up pick 18 or 20.
I would pass on Kelly completely but if we were to pick him up there is no way we'd give up pick 18 or 20.
Agreed
GET THORNTON
samthemanlonergan
1 Oct 2006, 22:54
3rd round pick/ or free in the PSD. He is a good player. He is just out of favour. He was a star in the 2005 premliminary final.
if we manage to trade someone like a laycock for another pick in the first round or early secon round then i would trade pick 20 for kelly. in effect it would be a swap of laycock for kelly and we end up just swapping picks.
for example trade laycock to carlton for there pick 19. we then give pick 20 to geelong for kelly. win/win in my book.
ps Nothing against laycock i personally would like to keep him but his name was the first that came in my head as a player who could possibly get us another top twenty pick.
brian.knight
2 Oct 2006, 21:23
Probably the 20 pick, depends on what Geelong asks
if we manage to trade someone like a laycock for another pick in the first round or early secon round then i would trade pick 20 for kelly. in effect it would be a swap of laycock for kelly and we end up just swapping picks.
for example trade laycock to carlton for there pick 19. we then give pick 20 to geelong for kelly. win/win in my book.
ps Nothing against laycock i personally would like to keep him but his name was the first that came in my head as a player who could possibly get us another top twenty pick.
Thank goodness you are not doing our trades
GET THORNTON
Darealrath
2 Oct 2006, 22:34
Don't rate him.
Longy413
2 Oct 2006, 22:38
Get him.
ripitup27
2 Oct 2006, 23:03
3rd round pick/ or free in the PSD. He is a good player. He is just out of favour. He was a star in the 2005 premliminary final.
Pretty sure he did not play in that game. His value is high. I doubt whether Geelong would take less than a couple of draft picks or a decent trade.
You can have him for your first round pick and Lovett-Murray;)
You can have him for your first round pick and Lovett-Murray;)
How about you can go back home and try and stuff up another golden chance at a premiership next year;) For what, the 44th year in a row?:p
Longy413
2 Oct 2006, 23:29
Pretty sure he did not play in that game.
Geelong didn't play in that game.
Kelly and Geelong did play in the 2005 semi-final and Kelly was very good.
How about you can go back home and try and stuff up another golden chance at a premiership next year;) For what, the 44th year in a row?:p
Where did you finish on the ladder again!:eek:
Longy413
2 Oct 2006, 23:32
Where did you finish on the ladder again!:eek:
15th.
Now run along and play on the freeway.
blumfieldisback
2 Oct 2006, 23:34
get the guy but not at the expense of jj, he will add to our midfield depth and i believe sheeds will get the best out of him because he is still young unlike campo. It would be great for kelly toplay under hird for one year invaluable experience and what is required for him to take the next step.
Slattery_20
3 Oct 2006, 00:32
I rate the guy as a player, he's still got many more years to offer, but:
No more trades
ripitup27
3 Oct 2006, 01:05
Geelong didn't play in that game.
Kelly and Geelong did play in the 2005 semi-final and Kelly was very good.
That's exactly what I meant.
Stealth bomber
3 Oct 2006, 01:17
This one seems to be getting some legs, according to what I've read just in the last half hour, or so.
Not sure how I feel about it.
I wonder if they're going after Laycock.
baywatch5
3 Oct 2006, 01:17
3rd round pick/ or free in the PSD. He is a good player. He is just out of favour. He was a star in the 2005 premliminary final.
Kelly is contracted so will either be traded or playing at geelong next year
baywatch5
3 Oct 2006, 01:22
This one seems to be getting some legs, according to what I've read just in the last half hour, or so.
Not sure how I feel about it.
I wonder if they're going after Laycock.
Wouldn't think so :confused:
Geelong have decent ruck stocks:
King, Ottens, Blake and drafted West last year. Would be chasing picks imo
get the guy but not at the expense of jj, he will add to our midfield depth and i believe sheeds will get the best out of him because he is still young unlike campo. It would be great for kelly toplay under hird for one year invaluable experience and what is required for him to take the next step.
excellent point
It was said on the broadcast of Geelong's last game against Hawthorn that one of these clubs (Geelong) was very interested in Solly, not to say that it would be a straight swap may have a thrid club involed. People James Kelly was on the verge of being of being a superstar until he broke his leg a couple of years back and being a Keilor boy would be a good pick up by Essendon
ripitup27
3 Oct 2006, 11:47
If Geelong was interested in Solly they would be dumber than I give them credit. He is a decent player but Geelong just simply does not need him.
get the guy but not at the expense of jj, he will add to our midfield depth and i believe sheeds will get the best out of him because he is still young unlike campo. It would be great for kelly toplay under hird for one year invaluable experience and what is required for him to take the next step.
Good point.
Plus, he's one of those guys that is good in tight areas, creates space, can slide through packs and is a talented kid. Under Hird for one more year whilst developing with our other younger guys could be the thing that changes him, as well as Sheedy. I've got a good feeling about Kelly at the Bombers.
go_the_bombers
3 Oct 2006, 12:13
I'd Welcome James Kelly to the Bombers :thumbsu:
Kelly is from Sunbury not Keilor but was an Essendon supporter. he was an excellent endurance athlete as a junior at the cannons and ran 3km in 10 minutes. at Geelong he has been used primarily as a hf changing on the ball which I think he has found frustrating. He would be very handy at essendon if he could get his aerobic capacity back to what it was. He is a quality bloke who would be popular with the other players. Solomon and pick 50ish might be fair.
Daytripper
3 Oct 2006, 13:10
I think a lot of you over-estimate draft picks.
Pick 18 or 20 is perfectly reasonable for Kelly - in fact its more than reasonable.
Lets have a look at the last 5 pick's at 18 and 20.
2005 - Max Bailey & Paul Bower
2004 - Cameron Wood & Dean Polo
2003 - Llane Spaderman & Sam Butler
2002 - Kris Shore & Will Minson
2001 - Shane Harvey & Daniel Elstone (Kelly went at pick 17)
Kelly is better than all of these players with the possible exception of Polo.
Why take a chance with pick 18 and end up with a Spaderman, Shore, Harvey, Elstone type when you can get a guaranteed AFL player who is about to enter his prime.
I think a lot of you over-estimate draft picks.
Pick 18 or 20 is perfectly reasonable for Kelly - in fact its more than reasonable.
Lets have a look at the last 5 pick's at 18 and 20.
2005 - Max Bailey & Paul Bower
2004 - Cameron Wood & Dean Polo
2003 - Llane Spaderman & Sam Butler
2002 - Kris Shore & Will Minson
2001 - Shane Harvey & Daniel Elstone (Kelly went at pick 17)
Kelly is better than all of these players with the possible exception of Polo.
Why take a chance with pick 18 and end up with a Spaderman, Shore, Harvey, Elstone type when you can get a guaranteed AFL player who is about to enter his prime.
Its an alleged superdraft- EFC have 3 picks in the top 20, and maybe more. Not worth sacrificing that for Kelly.
blumfieldisback
3 Oct 2006, 13:59
I think a lot of you over-estimate draft picks.
Pick 18 or 20 is perfectly reasonable for Kelly - in fact its more than reasonable.
Lets have a look at the last 5 pick's at 18 and 20.
2005 - Max Bailey & Paul Bower
2004 - Cameron Wood & Dean Polo
2003 - Llane Spaderman & Sam Butler
2002 - Kris Shore & Will Minson
2001 - Shane Harvey & Daniel Elstone (Kelly went at pick 17)
Kelly is better than all of these players with the possible exception of Polo.
Why take a chance with pick 18 and end up with a Spaderman, Shore, Harvey, Elstone type when you can get a guaranteed AFL player who is about to enter his prime.
good point, do u think geelong will take pick 20 for him though???
Daytripper
3 Oct 2006, 14:25
Its an alleged superdraft- EFC have 3 picks in the top 20, and maybe more. Not worth sacrificing that for Kelly.
I am glad that you acknowledge that its an 'alleged' superdraft.
So was 2001 in which Graham Polak was chosen pick 4 after having kicked 5 goals in his WAFL debut. By all reports he was better than Gumbleton at the same age.
Hasn't turned out that well, has he ?
Secondly it never ceases to amaze me how over-inflated in price draft picks are. Most picks in the 10-20 range will be nothing more than adequate footballers.
Don't fall in love with players you have never seen before. They are more likely to fail than succeed and history supports this.
I am glad that you acknowledge that its an 'alleged' superdraft.
So was 2001 in which Graham Polak was chosen pick 4 after having kicked 5 goals in his WAFL debut. By all reports he was better than Gumbleton at the same age.
Hasn't turned out that well, has he ?
Secondly it never ceases to amaze me how over-inflated in price draft picks are. Most picks in the 10-20 range will be nothing more than adequate footballers.
Don't fall in love with players you have never seen before. They are more likely to fail than succeed and history supports this.
Spot draft picks after about pick 12 are more hit and miss. I would strongly support giving away pick 20 for Kelly. Hes a player that has always looked the goods in my eyes and will slot straight into the side and play for 8-10 years
Daytripper
3 Oct 2006, 14:57
Spot draft picks after about pick 12 are more hit and miss. I would strongly support giving away pick 20 for Kelly. Hes a player that has always looked the goods in my eyes and will slot straight into the side and play for 8-10 years
Agree totally.
I think a lot of you over-estimate draft picks.
Pick 18 or 20 is perfectly reasonable for Kelly - in fact its more than reasonable.
Lets have a look at the last 5 pick's at 18 and 20.
2005 - Max Bailey & Paul Bower
2004 - Cameron Wood & Dean Polo
2003 - Llane Spaderman & Sam Butler
2002 - Kris Shore & Will Minson
2001 - Shane Harvey & Daniel Elstone (Kelly went at pick 17)
Kelly is better than all of these players with the possible exception of Polo.
Why take a chance with pick 18 and end up with a Spaderman, Shore, Harvey, Elstone type when you can get a guaranteed AFL player who is about to enter his prime.
While i agree a lot do over rate draft picks but to pick out 2 exact draft picks and make a comparison over the years is folly.
Good players come at the beginning of the draft and at the mid range, sometimes even late.
The key is to have anough highish picks and to get it right.
I admit i don't want Kelly, as i don't believe he is the answer to our problems, but if the club thinks he is, then i'm on board.
BUT, imo he is not worth a top 20 pick in this draft, and would prefer to trade to get him.
GET THORNTON
Daytripper
3 Oct 2006, 15:18
While i agree a lot do over rate draft picks but to pick out 2 exact draft picks and make a comparison over the years is folly.
Good players come at the beginning of the draft and at the mid range, sometimes even late.
The key is to have anough highish picks and to get it right.
I admit i don't want Kelly, as i don't believe he is the answer to our problems, but if the club thinks he is, then i'm on board.
BUT, imo he is not worth a top 20 pick in this draft, and would prefer to trade to get him.
GET THORNTON
Well, I'll broaden the comparison then.
Picks 16 -> 20 over the past 5 years
2005 : Max Bailey, Paul Bower, Richard Douglas, Darren Phieffer, Courtney Dempsey
2004 : Cameron Wood, Dean Polo, Ryan Willitts, Adam Pattison, Andrew McQualter
2003 : Llane Spaderman, Sam Butler, Stephen Gillham, Cam Faulkner, Troy Sellwood
2002 : Kris Shore, Will Minson, Josh Willougby, Billy Morrison, David Mundy
2001 : Shane Harvey, Daniel Elstone, Rick Ladsen, James Kelly, Jason Gram
Rankings (ignoring 2005 as too early to make a definitive ranking although I will say none of them are going to be superstars):
A : David Mundy, Dean Polo
B : James Kelly, Will Minson, Jason Gram
C : Sam Butler, Cameron Wood, Ryan Willitts, Troy Sellwood, Rick Ladsen
D : Adam Pattison, Andrew McQualter
BUST : Llane Spaderman, Stephen Gillham, Cam Faulkner, Kris Shore, Josh Willoughby, Billy Morrison, Shane Harvey, Daniel Elstone
Percentage chances :
A Grade : 10.00%
B Grade : 15.00%
C Grade : 25.00%
D Grade : 10.00%
BUST : 40.00%
I'd take my chances now with a proven B Grader who has a chance to move into the top shelf rather than taking the more than 50% chance on the likelihood of that player being a D Grade player or a BUST.
Its basic common sense really.
Nuts4Bolts
3 Oct 2006, 15:19
Speaking to his cousin, it seems that Kelly would be a much happier footballer at Essendon rather than Geelong. It's likely that he will be with us next season, but at what cost? Hopefully none of our first 3 picks.
Longy413
3 Oct 2006, 15:21
I tend to agree somewhat, but shouldn't you perhaps broaden the other way?
We have pick 18, so wouldn't pick 18-25ish make more sense?
And Faulkner and Willoughby aren't bust yet. Faulkner came back pretty well this year before getting injured. Probably cost him a final in the end.
I tend to agree, what are the odds we draft someone better than Kelly with 18-20. Kelly is a pretty good footballer with potential to become very good again especially in a happy environment, not only that but tarding for him elimates the need to bring him through the VFL which makes us a better side straight away and eliminates some possibilities of drafting an average/ok player
Daytripper
3 Oct 2006, 15:42
I tend to agree, what are the odds we draft someone better than Kelly with 18-20. Kelly is a pretty good footballer with potential to become very good again especially in a happy environment, not only that but tarding for him elimates the need to bring him through the VFL which makes us a better side straight away and eliminates some possibilities of drafting an average/ok player
I'll put my bookmakers hat on and the odds based on my previous percentages are (I'll move Faulkner and Willoughby into the D Graders to appease Longy.) :D
A : 9/1
B : 6/1
C : 3/1
D : 4/1
BUST : 9/4
I tend to agree somewhat, but shouldn't you perhaps broaden the other way?
We have pick 18, so wouldn't pick 18-25ish make more sense?
And Faulkner and Willoughby aren't bust yet. Faulkner came back pretty well this year before getting injured. Probably cost him a final in the end.
Id actually be stretching it as far as pick 40.....most clubs seem to be harbouring a little secret theyve been scouting over the previous 12 months and generally save them for their second round of picks and with great success also.
In regards to Faulkner, Id be tipping he'll be moved on for the right trade, He's not highly regarded out that way, which surprises me in that Boyd wasnt regarded also till he shone last year. Faulkner has much more talent, but his application just isnt there at senior level. Last chance for him if he's retained anyways.
Outside the top 20 to pick 40
2001 - McGuire, Seaby, Armstrong, Roberts-Thomson, C.Brown, Mitchell, Montagna, Hansen
2002 - T. Selwood, Minson, Rivers, Merrett, Perry
2004 - Polo, Rusling, Van Berlo, Rosa
Aside from the high profile Top 20, as you can see, this period is crucial for added depth and list management.
Straight swap for Woosha.