View Full Version : Round 5 Face-Off: Hawks vs Bulldogs
Welcome to the BigFooty Face-off where a Dogs fan and a quality poster from the opposition will give their analysis of how and where their team can win.
This week it's astro_ (myself) from the Dogs up against RustyHawk, one of the best posters from the Hawthorn Board to discuss the match at the MCG this Sunday.
Please welcome RustyHawk, and I hope that many Dogs and Hawks fans will join in. This a thread for quality discussion in a good spirit - any troll posts from either side will be deleted.
Time and Venue: Sunday 29th April 2007, 1:10pm, MCG
Last Time: Dogs defeated Hawks 109-88 Round 10 2006 at the TD, meaning they have won 3 out of the past 4 against the Hawks
Head to Head: 71-71 and 2 draws.
Speed Kills: The dogs are expected to welcome back Aker to the line up which may be a big inclusion given his ability to break the lines. I believe this is an area that the bulldogs will need to exploit, as the Hawks tend to play a defensive game. If we can move the ball quickly through the midfield to our forwards we should be able to provide enough scoreboard pressure to get over the Hawks. Ryan Griffin last week shows us glimpses of what he is capable of and if he can emulate his last performance against the Hawks the dogs will be well on their way to their 3rd win.
Bad Kicking is Bad Football: On average so far this year the Dogs have averaged 357 disposals. This is just one more than the Hawks, who sit on 356 per game. For average disposals per goals, the dogs currently sit on 25, whereas the Hawks are averaging 31 disposals per goal. We often hear that the Hawks mess around with the ball, however if you look closely at these stats the Hawks are averaging 15.8 disposals per scoring shot with the dogs averaging 16.2 disposals to scoring shot. The only problem is the Hawks are averaging more behinds than the dogs (11.0 to 7.8) and less goals (11.5 - 14.2)
Game Plan: If there's one clear message flowing from the dogs victory over Richmond on Friday night, it's that the Western Bulldogs' is not a one-man forward line. Jonno who has been down on form the last 3 weeks was helped by the likes of Darcy, Murphy, and Cooney who looks set to have his best year for the clubs. These three players kicked 12 of the dogs 20 goals last week. Expect the dogs to use their running strengths to get the ball quickly into these guys.
Dangers: The best way to beat a team is not to attack their weaknesses, but their strengths. I expect the Hawks to try and shut down the doggies run and space, which has proven an effective tool over recent weeks when the saints and crows employed the same tactic. Of course the Hawks will try and use the likes of Franklin to full effective with his height and build proving a potential handful. Expect maybe Hargarve or Wright to get first crack if he starts around half forward, or Harris if he moves deep forward.
Mitchell is another danger for the dogs who continues to prove himself along the elite midfielders of the competition. He is the driving force for the Hawks at the moment and his ability to win plenty of ball and use it well has been one of the main reasons the Hawks are 3-1. A match up with Daniel Cross (if fit) or Boyd looks the likely outcome their.
My 2 cents: The Hawks have turned it around in the past three weeks with wins over Melbourne, the Kangaroos, and the Cats. It's hardly vintage football from the Hawks, but you can't question their ability to get the job done.
Expects an arm-wrestle, not a shootout, and that may suit Hawthorn. However, I think the dogs two losses against the Crows and Saints may prove a godsend as it showed the kind of pressure that needs to be applied in order to win a game. I don’t expect the dogs to fall into the trap like they did after their round 1 win against the cats. Confidence was gained in last week's win against the Tigers and the players are slowly returning to form. Should they be able to maintain their run and delivery to their forwards I expect this will be too much for the Hawks to handle.
I am posting RustyHawk's analysis which he prepared eariler today
"The FACE-OFF- PREPARED BY RUSTYHAWK"
To start I must thank Astro and the Western Bulldogs mods for the invite and opportunity to participate in what I believe is your first FACE-OFF for 2007.
In a quick review of the history between our two great clubs we both joined the VFL in 1925. From 1925-1956 our win loss ratio to the then (and well to me at least, FOOTSCRAY) was a measly 27.3%. Our win loss record at Western Oval from 1925-89 was 53 played for 21 wins. I can sadly say I was there one very windy day when Shane Loveless decided to tear us a new one…
Gone is your home ground advantage and from 1957-89 our win loss record has turned around to 67.7%. In 1961 Hawthorn won its first VFL Grand Final against a gallant Footscray 94 points to 51
Omen for Hawthorn in Round 5?
In round 5 1925 Hawthorn won its first VFL match against….. Footscray.
To this weeks match and why Hawthorn will win.
First, some assumptions. From our team that defeated Geelong. Out – Young – I suspect he will not recovery from his injury. A bad loss due to his penetrating kicks from backs to forwards.
In: Most likely the exciting Beau Muston (2005 draft). Hawthorn BF decided to sponsor Beau for season 2007. B2 didn’t play for Box Hill Anzac Day and is a similar type of player to Young. Long kicking, hard running, 189cm tall midfield match winner. Watch for the long goals on the run.
Unavailable due to injury: Trent Croad, Rick Ladson, Vandenburg, Smith and Tim Clarke
Form: Hawks 7 wins from last 8 starts in AFL premiership season. Bulldogs 2 wins from last 5 starts…. Not that I’m trying to get into your heads or anything J
Getting Hawthorn to 3 and 1 by round 4 2007 hasn’t been by accident, it comes down to:
Training
The Hawks train at Waverley Park with the finest facilities available to any AFL club. We train on an oval that has been redeveloped into exact dimensions of the MCG. I believe gives us a great advantage and confidence to all players whether the forwards shooting for goal or the backs bring the ball out. Hopefully your Western Oval redesigners will take into consideration with your new training venue.
Specialist part time coaches.
This year we hired 2 specialist coaches to work in key areas of Rucks and Backs.
Rucks coach Alex Ischenko developed both Robert Campbell and Simon Taylor (ST) into a ruthless combination. Both are reasonable with their tap work to advantage, both are very good with the 2nd and 3rd efforts at centre bounces. Don’t expect to see them just stand there, they will tackle and hard. Both run hard and change on their own timetable. Both took telling big man marks in the defensive end in last 9 minutes of the game against Geelong with Simon Taylor taking the last mark at the Geelong goal square 13 seconds out.
Defensive expert Danny Frawley has taken our young inexperienced back line and turned it into a very tight disciplined unit.
Currently our back line is 5th in the AFL for lowest points scored against and the best Victorian based defence. Bulldogs D are 11th with a difference of 114 points or 28.5 points per game is scored against your backs than ours!
Further our back line has improved with Danny Jacobs returning from long-term injury. His work as 3rd tall has released Luke Hodge to play a more attacking role even in defence. Steve Gilham has firmly taken over at full back. 2005 draftee Grant Birchall is continuing his good form from 2006.
Finally the attack of Campbell Brown, Chance Bateman & Brent Guerra, the work of super tagger Brad Sewell all following team rules means we confidently shut down your forwards and make it a very hard day at the office for the Bullies.
Hawk Forward Line
Both Mark Williams & veteran Ben Dixon are excellent on the lead and deadly in front of goal. Willo lead our team with 60 goals last year followed by Dixon with 39.
Tall forwards Tim Boyle and Jarryd Roughead. Both are under pressure to perform but the MCG is the best place for them. Boyle reminds some at Hawthorn of a young Jade Rawlings. Has the leap that can get right up there. Roughead remains an enigma. Is he too slow for his height or too small for his speed? A good overhead mark who cannot be left alone in the forward 50m. Offers the advantage switching to tall back if we need him.
The excitement machine: Lance (Buddy) Franklin. A 6’6” player who showed last week he can mark overhead. Is getting better and better each game and as such more and more dangerous. Near impossible to match up on.
Midfielders: Shane Crawford & Sam Mitchell. Both super fit and will run all day. Having a great 2007 is Jordan Lewis allowing both Mitch and Crawf to play outside the square. Xavier Ellis (3rd overall 2005 draft) continues to improve while nuggety Ben McGlynn should not be taken lightly especially anywhere from 55m out of goal. Beau Muston I suspect will start on the bench but due to Hawthorns hard running, it wont be long till he’s on.
Summary
Definitely our hardest game of the season. Hawthorn have shown their not afraid of bring the ball through the guts; of hard running when required; and of getting it to the leading forwards of Williams & Dixon. Last week wasn’t a game for the tall forwards, this week we need the Rougheads and Boyles to step up and take the big ones, just like they did in the Melbourne game.
Thank you - excellent effort from RustyHawk in this Round 5 Face-off.
I invite all Dogs and Hawks posters to join in and debate their thorough analyses.
Hawkamania!
26 Apr 2007, 22:21
This is one of the best threads I have read on BF. Thank you Astro and Rusty for combining on this - well done to both.
I see the key to this game being Hawk defenders V Bulldogs forwards. The strongest unit here will win the game in my opinion. Brad Johnson is a classy forward and Luke Darcy is always a danger as a tall forward option. Campbell Brown should have first crack at Johnson and Gilham (7 wins out of 8 games for the Hawks) will be the defender to watch out for. Expect Robbie Campbell to spend time on Darcy and Tom Murphy may be the replacement for an injured Danny Jacobs. Akermanis will also provide headaches for the Hawks and Brent Guerra should be the one minding Aker. Luke Hodge will start at defence and have regular stints in the midfield.
The midfield battle will be a close one and our forward line has too many lapses to be considered a genuine threat at the moment. Scott West is the best midfielder in my opinion for creating opportunity with his possessions. Brad Sewell has been on a hot streak since late last year and has developed as a great tagger. West will be his biggest challenge to date. Cooney has picked up and Matthew Boyd will be looking to get a lot of the ball. Jordan Lewis has reached a new level of performance and has allowed Sam Mitchell and Shane Crawford to play more of an outside midfielder role.
Expect Will Minston and Simon Taylor to play the majority of the game against each other. Not much separates these two from each other skill wise.
The Hawks forward line took a hit with Mark Williams injured. Ben Dixon will play the Williams role and Jarryd Roughead will need to step up. Tim Boyle has been servicable for Hawthorn this year and would need to rack up more possestions to be effective. Lance Franklin has stepped it up this year and needs a quick tall on him at all times. Brian Harris and Cameron Wight are the cornerstones of the Bulldogs defence with Lidsay Gilbee and Ryan Hargrave adding support (and picking up defensive possessions).
Look for this to be a real tight game. Too close to call if you were putting money on the game, but as a Hawk I will say Hawthorn by 1 point ;).
Good work fella's, enjoyed the read.
Personally i feel this weeks game will be a big make or break for both clubs. The Hawks are starting build up a little more respect, as most people had them marked as 'improving' but not there yet. If they can get over us this week then i think they have a legitimate claim at making the top 8. Where as the doggies, this season have to have these games penciled in as wins if we are to make any sort of impact in the top 8.
Be very interesting to see how the teams go in the wet. Will the bulldogs suffer from the high skill, precision passing sort of game or will the dogs lack of height be a strength? Not even dog supporters know, it feels like its been years since its rained let alone seen the doggies play footy in it.
cradle of filth
26 Apr 2007, 22:29
The loss of Mark Williams will not slow us down and will only prompt Franklin, Dixon, Boyle and Roughead to further step up. I can't see how the dogs will manage to stop all 4 if they are on their game. I think our new-look defense can more than handle a solid but beatable Bulldogs forward line. In the end i think the midfield is where the Doggies have a slight(and only slight) advantage over us. While we probably have the same number of mid fielders who can run and carry the Bulldogs have more experienced ones. Having said all that i think the bulldogs will have a bit more inside 50's that the hawks but we will make better use of ours.
Hawks by 16
it will be very interesting how the bulldogs skills and small bodied players handle the "big wet" as they are predicting. The likes of West and Cross (if selected) will need and will probably be the reasons for the dogs winning.
However I feel we def. need to stop Mitchell. Will also be interesting to see who Morris picks up given Williams is out.
Really a hard game to pick a winner.
The Coon Dog
26 Apr 2007, 23:11
It wasn't all that long ago we played in the rain. Against West Coast in last seasons finals series.
It wasn't all that long ago we played in the rain. Against West Coast in last seasons finals series.
didnt have the best of games there either. Too bad we aint at the dome on sunday.
Wonder if there will be late changes to the final line ups. Hawthorn look tall on paper down forward given the forecast of rain.
Aquamarinejewel
26 Apr 2007, 23:28
Well done on resurrecting the Face Off thread Astro and also to Rusty Hawk.
It will be quite a match and I am looking forward to it - imperative that we get off to a good start like last week. Hawks will probably try and impose the one on one game to try to unsettle the Dogs but first use out of the centre for us is the key.
firstdogonthemoon
26 Apr 2007, 23:58
I love the face off thread. Thanks v much.
Go_Dogs
27 Apr 2007, 11:48
Should be a very interesting game, and if it rains it could be a close slog most of the afternoon. I think the area the Dogs hold an advantage is their depth of rotations in the midfield. West, Cross, Cooney, Akermanis, Boyd, Griffen, Giansiracusa, McMahon, Higgins ... there is a lot of depth and class in that group. The Hawks are an underrated clearance side, with guys like Mitchell very good at sharking the ball out the centre. I think for depth we have them covered, and having Cross back to add another harder body into our midfield will help a lot if it rains. Expect players like Boyd and West to be very important winning the hard ball too, and perhaps Aker and Higgins up forward showing a bit of class with the slippery ball. The loss of Williams is a big blow for the Hawks, but hopefully they play a few kids this week - the Ins look good - and it can be an exciting game. Of course, with the Dogs running away with it at the end. :)
thatswhatimtalkinabout
27 Apr 2007, 13:24
Really looking forward to this game as I rate the Doggies very highly and expect them to have a big show come finals time. The loss of Williams is a big blow for us but I believe the loss of Jacobs to probably hurt us more. Without him commanding and structuring our backline we won't have the luxury of changing things around too much and it will probably also tie up Hodgey down back. Midfield will be exciting to watch, and obviously the winner here will get the chocolates. Expect some suprises in the forward line, maybe the exciting Beau Muston. All in all (and I can't believe I'm saying this) it is a shame that it will be wet weather footy because these two sides have the potential to provide a high quality shootout that probably only the Cats could challenge. However, being played at the 'G, an edge in fitness at this point of the season and the way the Hawks have really gritted out hard fought wins over the last three weeks should see us prevail in a close contest.
I would be very disappointed if we lose to a Hawthorn side without Williams, Croad and Jacobs. These three players are very important to Hawthorn's structure (wet or dry) and if we are serious about the game we simply should win.
I note with interest the earlier comment about Hawthorn making more of inside 50 entries - I am a little surprised at this to be honest. Despite our slow'ish start to the season (but I think had we played two of Melbourne, North, and Brisbane as Hawthorn have rather than the Crows and Saints our record might be different - on common opponents we comfortably beat the Cats whilst Hawthorn scraped home) over the last two years we have been amongst the highest scoring teams in the competition. Hawthorn have struggled to kick goals in the past, and whilst Franklin, Boyle, Roughead and Dixon might continue to 'step up', they will actually have opponents....Boyle wont slip under our guard as he has the past couple of weeks. Harris and Wight have been in terrific form and the Hawk forwards will not have things all their own way...
I agree that Franklin poses a danger, but less so in the wet where his 'lead-up' style will be impacted by the wet ball.
Dogs in a canter - 36 points. With Williams/Croad/Jacobs? I would be looking at things very differently.
Davo-27
27 Apr 2007, 18:02
this is the first year for a long time we've had depth and it will be tested against the doggies, i feel murphy would be the obvious replacement for jacobs as they're very similar players, with murphy a better player in contests and jacobs a more rebounding option...........
without willo we'll struggle a bit, but i expect roughead/franklin/dixon and boyle with cameos including brown or osborne up forward to get the required goals to win or go close to winning, our backline has been weakened of late with jacobs and croad missing, but hodge has shown he can play tall when needed and gilham has been sensational at fb
as far as the dogs are concerned they'll try and run hard and rely on crumbing goals or leading small players for their goals as well as relying on darcy to take a few marks, i feel we'll have to tackle hard like we have in previous weeks to get a mental advantage..........
Hawk Dork
27 Apr 2007, 18:59
Agree it is a shame that there will be rain and injuries that impact on this game.
imagine the 2 teams fully fit and running on the G.
It will be on the ground most of the time so the stronger shorter bodies will be happier.
Brown, Hodge, Lewis,Mitchell,Dixon,Guerra, Sewell and Osbourne for us
Yankee Hotel Foxtrot
27 Apr 2007, 20:14
Top work folks. I love reading these.
A testament to all involved that we can have such a thread with insightful comments from all and devoid of trolling.
The teams have been finalised and I guess a little surprise for the dogs with 3 inclusions. Aker, Cross and Power all coming back from injury with the dogs sending 3 of the newer boys in Williams, Harbow and Addison back to Werribee for a run.
The Hawks have also made 3 changes out of necessity with Williams (knee), Jacobs (hammy) and Young (shoulder) unable to play. Ladson, Thurgood and Murphy come in.
These are big "ins" for the dogs and big "outs" for the Hawks.
This thread is an absolute credit to the Doggies board. Well done all involved.
Dogs_r_barking
28 Apr 2007, 23:52
Thanks guys, very insightful comments.
However, agree with MJP that we have played some tough teams early and the win loss ratio doesn't give an accurate picture of our capabilities. I expect it to be three quarters of tough footy with the fourth the doggies pulling away, helped greatly by some big losses from the Hawthorn side. However, in saying that I wouldn't be at all suprised if the Hawks were knocking on the doors come finals.:)
bulldogrob
29 Apr 2007, 00:08
Its great to be able to read a thread where both teams supporters give their honest opinions and there are no TROLLS :thumbsu:
SA HAWK
29 Apr 2007, 01:41
Can't see us winning today but you never know. Hopefully it is a good game.
Very wet on the ground. Could be a bit of scrap but hoping for a good game! hard to see us getting up
trueblue_91
29 Apr 2007, 13:38
Good luck to both teams, should be a great game.
Hawks fans who do you think sewell will go too West, Cross, Cooney or maybe even Brad Johnson
Good luck to both teams, should be a great game.
Hawks fans who do you think sewell will go too West, Cross, Cooney or maybe even Brad Johnson
browny will go to johnson and reckon sewell will go to cooney
Thanks for all those who participated in the Face-Off thread this week. A good win to the dogs over a gallent Hawthorn who refused to lie down. In the end the dogs were a little cleaner with the ball and took their opportunities when they arise (expect the final qrt). Special mention goes out to Brian Harris who I think was the difference.
Thanks RustyHawk, and all others who contributed to this thread.
For bulldog supporters im hoping to get the face off thread up by tomorrow night which will give us a little more time to analysis the game and keep threads for next weeks game to a minimum.
Regards.