We have a scary run in the next 9 games... [Archive]

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Sir Razzle

13 Jun 2007, 00:35

Just wanted to point out that we had better pick our game up after the break. We have a run of very challenging games.

Six of our next eight games are dangerous.

Round 13: vs Adelaide @ AAMI
Round 15: vs Port Adelaide @ AAMI
Round 16: vs Sydney @ Subiaco
Round 17: vs Bulldogs @ Telstra Dome
Round 18: vs Fremantle @ Subiaco
Round 19: vs Kangaroos @ Telstra Dome

On the upside, we are playing terribly at the moment a la 2006 and we have a LOT of players to come back and make a significant impact:

Ben Cousins
Andrew Embley
Ashley Sampi
Mark Nicoski
Ashley Hansen
Beau Waters

Suddenly we're lookin' a little better ay?

larrikin

13 Jun 2007, 00:38

Pffft - easy games all of them ;)

larrikin

13 Jun 2007, 00:39

Oh, and please take Sampi off that list - that boat ain't gonna float

MmkMrMackie

13 Jun 2007, 00:41

Sir Razzle

13 Jun 2007, 00:43

Oh, and please take Sampi off that list - that boat ain't gonna float

Yeah I tend to agree with you. I'm one of those optimists that just wishes he would see the light and get himself fit. A fit and hard-working Sampi can make the world of difference.

But you could also add Sam Butler and Jamie Graham to that list too. It'll be great to see the younger players workin their arses off just to keep their spot when all of those guys are fit.

larrikin

13 Jun 2007, 00:46

Now Butler is worth adding to that list. Fully fit he'd be ahead of Rosa, Hurn and possibly even Priddis.

West Coast 06

13 Jun 2007, 01:12

Just wanted to point out that we had better pick our game up after the break. We have a run of very challenging games.

Six of our next eight games are dangerous.

Round 13: vs Adelaide @ AAMI Won the last 3 at AAMI
Round 15: vs Port Adelaide @ AAMI Admit we are their bitches
Round 16: vs Sydney @ Subiaco They aren't what they were last year, we are 3 from last 4 games
Round 17: vs Bulldogs @ Telstra Dome I dont think they will make the 8 this year
Round 18: vs Fremantle @ Subiaco They are shite but will no doubt lift for their GF 50/50
Round 19: vs Kangaroos @ Telstra Dome We did beat them by 11 goals at Subi, so surely we are some sort of chance?
We should win at least four of those.

Disclaimer: Although my tipping has been quite poo this year I did tip Geelong and Essendon.:o

Boy from the West

13 Jun 2007, 02:48

We are finishing top 2 - bank it.

Emerald

13 Jun 2007, 02:52

I'm sensing a breakthrough win against Port at AAMI. They will treat this game as they are the hunters, Port being the hunted. This will get them fired up.
Maybe I'm just hoping. :p

jorel6669

13 Jun 2007, 04:10

well, the good thing is, we'll find out sooner rather than later of where the side is at.

We've been fortunate to have 10-1 starts in the past 2 seasons. 8-3 seems cosy at the mo', but drop an AAMI game and that's four losses, drop another game at the Dome and that's five. Lose to the Swans or Dockers at Subi and that's six... all of a sudden we're possibly losing a grip on top 2.

The flip side is, a lot of lesser light teams are performing well this year. Hawthorn, Essendon and Kangaroos are right in the mix. If they drop off a bit, and we're contending with Geelong, Sydney and Adelaide for the top spots, then we've got a bit of breathing room, given the losses Sydney and the Crows have already.

Is 15 wins enought for a top 2 spot? 16 wins should cover it, you'd think. You get the feeling the ladder will continue to be a logjam for most of the season.

halfbackflanker

13 Jun 2007, 05:56

The target of both the Eagles is obviously to make top 2, which usually means you need to win about 15 or 16 H&A games for the season. With the make-up of the present ladder I'd suggest 15 wins will probably do it. Which means a 7-4 record for the second half of the season - a more than realistic target. In order to catch the Eagles, sides like Hawthorn, Essendon, Collingwood and the Kangaroos would have to manage an 8-3 record and achieve a better percentage. No disrespect to those sides, but that's a tough ask given the evenness of the competition, and I don't know if any of these sides really has the depth to go all the way at that level.

What's aided the hopes of the Eagles is that a lot of the sides with real quality depth and firepower have had rugged seasons thus far. I still regard the major finals threats as Sydney, Adelaide and the Bulldogs, rather than some of the sides presently above them on the ladder. With the losses those sides have had, they'll have to have a phemonenal second half to the season - at least a 9-2 win/loss or even better - to usurp the Eagles or the Cats from top 2 spot. I think only the Swans would have that capability.

As Razzle noted, there's some tough matches in there, and these games will determine a lot. On the plus side, the last 3 matches will probably be easier and a good lead into the finals. Assuming that we manage to win all the other games not mentioned, and that 15 wins will go pretty close this year to covering a top 2 spot under the cirumstances, then it is possible to speculate that the Eagles could only win 2 out of the 6 games Razzle mentioned and STILL manage to make a top 2.

All of them are tough, but out of the two AAMI games and the two games at the Dome, I think it's a reasonable expectation that they'll only drop two of those, with three losses being very poor (and four a disaster!). I'd expect their games at Subi are the safest, despite the opposition of the Swans and the Dockers, followed by the Kangas at the dome. Bulldogs at Telstra and the two AAMI games would be the most likely losses.

It may well be a logjam at the end of the season, but I think that aim of going at least 7-4 for the second half of the season should see things right for us. Although we haven't had the jump on the rest that we did in 05 & 06, we've been well aided by the fact that nobody is really dominating, and that lesser teams have been winning games. That being said, that loss against the Bombers was a critical one - the breathing space of being 9-2 would have been a great insurance policy against a major form disaster over the last half of the season.

Black JuJu

13 Jun 2007, 07:11

Oh, and please take Sampi off that list - that boat ain't gonna float

oh I don't know, I reckon a lad of his carriage be reasonably buoyant.

Cuzz09

13 Jun 2007, 14:07

Round 13: vs Adelaide @ AAMI - 50/50 - Crows undermanned but always hard to beat.

Round 15: vs Port Adelaide @ AAMI - I say this every year but if we are ever gonna beat port at AAMI this has to be the year!! - Look for them to have a big win the week before they play us just to get the confidence levels up a bit.

Round 16: vs Sydney @ Subiaco - Should win, tough game, but should win.

Round 17: vs Bulldogs @ Telstra Dome - Well I just hate the Dome! - Loss.

Round 18: vs Fremantle @ Subiaco - Should win - but by then dockers could be on a roll. 50/50

Round 19: vs Kangaroos @ Telstra Dome - Same as Dogs game.

Have to win 4 like halfbackflanker said. any less and we're in trouble of missing top 2.

flyinghi64

14 Jun 2007, 14:58

With the way this season is going every game is a danger game. The main thing this year, it seems, is who can field their best 22 on the day.
By the looks of things, each week we will be fielding a better and better 22.
The first half of the year saw the West Coast coasting and the second half will see the West Coast flying high.:D

Cockney Nutter

14 Jun 2007, 23:20

I for one am f****** pumped. All those games are for the taking with the side we will have, ceteris paribus. Hopefully the boys will pull the finger out and rout a few of these quasi football sides off the park, particularly freo. :p

Mr Eagle

15 Jun 2007, 00:40

Interesting to look at the list of teams we play twice (Swans, Dogs, Dockers, Roos, Tigers, Saints, Bombers) in light of their seasons so far...

- Roos and Bombers are now more dangerous than we thought at round 1 (thumping of the Roos in Rd 10 notwithstanding).
- Saints much less dangerous than we thought. Suddenly this fixture looks a lot more favourable than it did at the start of the season.
- Swans and Dockers have maybe not been so impressive on-field as we expected, but the games will still be tough.
- Dogs are a little off the boil, but not much.
- The Tiges, well... poor Tiges.