Wooden Spoon Contenders

[reg_lower91]

Some people may react negatively to this thread but oh well:
i reckon that carlton are true wooden spoon contenders this year. This is the fixture for the bottom three teams at the moment, and with it i have put whether they will win or not:
Richmond:
Kang (h) - won't win
Hawks (MCG) - won't win
PA (MCG) - 50/50
Syndey (SCG) - won't win
Geelong (SS) - won't win
Collingwood (MCG) - won't win
W.C. (S) - won't win
Essendon (MCG) - 50/50
St.Kilda (MCG) - 50/50
Points possibly remaining: 12


Melbourne:
Carl (MCG) - 50/50
BL (G) - 50/50
Kang (TD) - won't win
PA (AS) - won't win
Sydney (MO) - won't win
WB (TD) - won't win
Coll (MCG) - 50/50
Freo (S) - won't win
Carl (MCG) - 50/50
Points possibly remaining: 16

Carlton:[/B]
Melb (MCG) - 50/50
Sydney (SCG) - won't win
BL (G) - won't win
St.kilda (TD) - 50/50
Coll (MCG) - won't win
PA (AS) - won't win
Ess (MCG) - 50/50
Kang (TD) - won't win
Melb (MCG) - 50/50
Points possibly remaining: 16

Ok, say we beat Melbourne twice (and win the 50/50 games) we should be positioned safely around 13/14 on 32 points. Although, if we don't win twice against Melbourne but still win all the 50/50 games, we might fall bellow Melbourne on 24 points, based on percentage. So that puts us about 15th. That's scary, and if we loose just 2 of those tough 50/50 games we could even fall below Richmond who, if they win all their 50/50 games, might finish on about 18 points - 15th.

13th - Brisbane Lions
14th - Melbourne - 24 points
15th - Richmond - 18 points
16th - Carlton - 16 points
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ this could happen come season's end!!! unlikely, i know, but weirder things have happened!!!

So guys, based on this, (i know its really unlikely and mainly a guess but it could happen) i think we are actually wooden spoon contenders. I think that Richmond are very unpredictable and Melbourne will not go down with out a true, hard fight. I know all the stuff i hav said is confusing, but just think about it, lol.

Thoughts???

[bluegal1983]

Won't happen.

[The Old Dark Navy's]

I go here each week and rework according to form:
http://afl.allthestats.com/misc/ladderpredict.php

I have us finishing 15th only two points above Richmond. This is based on our poor form and not being able to win another game however, so is changeable. Note that this scenario would bring us picks 1 and 3 and the spoon would be avoided, but it would shatter the confidence of players like Murphy and Gibbs.

[bluegal1983]

I go here each week and rework according to form:
http://afl.allthestats.com/misc/ladderpredict.php

I have us finishing 15th only two points above Richmond. This is based on our poor form and not being able to win another game however, so is changeable. Note that this scenario would bring us picks 1 and 3 and the spoon would be avoided, but it would shatter the confidence of players like Murphy and Gibbs.

And Simmo, Carrazzo, Waite, Fisher and Walker. Guys that have tried their guts out all year.

[walkers a legend]

I go here each week and rework according to form:
http://afl.allthestats.com/misc/ladderpredict.php

I have us finishing 15th only two points above Richmond. This is based on our poor form and not being able to win another game however, so is changeable. Note that this scenario would bring us picks 1 and 3 and the spoon would be avoided, but it would shatter the confidence of players like Murphy and Gibbs.just did that predictor i expect us to win at least three more also for me Melbourne will finish up last and i think Brisbane might even finish below us cant see them winning much more

[The Old Dark Navy's]

We have to note that the Dees and Tiges are keeping us off the bottom and each have had far more injuries than us this year and each have gone down in some heartbreakers.

Last year, we were relying on the Roos and the Bombers to keep us in hope of avoiding that spoon. This year, they are in finals contention.

It is hard to get a gauge on who we compare to (we are hoping it is Hawthorn) but we are a lot closer to a spoon side this year than people think, despite having a decent list to move forward with.

Note that we will again have the worst percentage in the competition so the Dees and Tiges need only finish even with us to avoid the gong.

[Monkeyboy]

No chance. last nights result was not as bad as it appeared. If Pagan had played a man or two down back Carlton woould have lost by 3-4 goals. Carlton had more entries into the fifty, and Freo scored almost every time they entered. Denis is teaching your youngsters important lessons. I can see you winning 3-4 on the way home.

[The Old Dark Navy's]

No chance. last nights result was not as bad as it appeared. If Pagan had played a man or two down back Carlton woould have lost by 3-4 goals. Carlton had more entries into the fifty, and Freo scored almost every time they entered. Denis is teaching your youngsters important lessons. I can see you winning 3-4 on the way home.I know me had more forward entries but the way it was coming in and the effort of most of the forwards was awful. I appreciate that Pagan wants to teach them one on one footy and have them rebound strongly, but we still have to have option B because successive blowouts don't help anyone. The players visibly gave up a few times last night rather than fight it out and that has far more ramifications for their psychology.

I like the attacking game plan but we have to have another gear as all out attack is not sustainable.

[bluegal1983]

We have to note that the Dees and Tiges are keeping us off the bottom and each have had far more injuries than us this year and each have gone down in some heartbreakers.


We have been decimated by injuries ourselves ODN.

Carlton

Ryan Jackson (knee) - 1 week
Aisake O'hAilpin (groin) - 1 week
Andrew Walker (shoulder) - 1-2 weeks
Lance Whitnall (knee) - indefinite
Cameron Cloke (shoulder) - season
Nick Stevens (neck) - season

Melbourne

Ben Holland (nose) - test
David Neitz (finger) - test
Jared Rivers (groin/back) - 1 week
Daniel Hughes (groin) - 3-4 weeks
Adem Yze (groin) - 6 weeks
Clint Bartram (knee) - indefinite

Richmond

Trent Knobel (leg) - 2 weeks
Ray Hall (hip) - indefinite
Mark Coughlan (knee) - season
Dean Polo (shoulder) - season


I'd say we are more hard done by with injuries than Melbourne and Richmond, especially considering our best player/midfielder and best ruckman have been out since Round 3 and Round 6.

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Somebody did an injury ladder on the main board BG. First figure is weeks lost, second figure is current ladder position.

1. St Kilda 103 13
2. Richmond 89 16
3. Adelaide 66 5
4. Melbourne 64 15
5. Brisbane 49 12
6. West Coast 47 2
7. Carlton 46 14
8. Fremantle 44 11

9. Hawthorn 44 3
10. Essendon 44 6
11. Collingwood 43 4
12. Bulldogs 38 7
13. Kangaroos 35 9
14. Geelong 34 1
15. Port Power 26 8
16. Sydney 22 10

[marcmurphy3]

Won't happen because Richmond and Melbourne are tanking. Richmond actually played Raines on Reiwolt. If that isn't tanking I don't know what is.

[walkers a legend]

Some people may react negatively to this thread but oh well:
i reckon that carlton are true wooden spoon contenders this year. This is the fixture for the bottom three teams at the moment, and with it i have put whether they will win or not:
Richmond:
Kang (h) - won't win
Hawks (MCG) - won't win
PA (MCG) - 50/50
Syndey (SCG) - won't win
Geelong (SS) - won't win
Collingwood (MCG) - won't win
W.C. (S) - won't win
Essendon (MCG) - 50/50
St.Kilda (MCG) - 50/50
Points possibly remaining: 12


Melbourne:
Carl (MCG) - 50/50
BL (G) - 50/50
Kang (TD) - won't win
PA (AS) - won't win
Sydney (MO) - won't win
WB (TD) - won't win
Coll (MCG) - 50/50
Freo (S) - won't win
Carl (MCG) - 50/50
Points possibly remaining: 16

Carlton:[/b]
Melb (MCG) - 50/50
Sydney (SCG) - won't win
BL (G) - won't win
St.kilda (TD) - 50/50
Coll (MCG) - won't win
PA (AS) - won't win
Ess (MCG) - 50/50
Kang (TD) - won't win
Melb (MCG) - 50/50
Points possibly remaining: 16

Ok, say we beat Melbourne twice (and win the 50/50 games) we should be positioned safely around 13/14 on 32 points. Although, if we don't win twice against Melbourne but still win all the 50/50 games, we might fall bellow Melbourne on 24 points, based on percentage. So that puts us about 15th. That's scary, and if we loose just 2 of those tough 50/50 games we could even fall below Richmond who, if they win all their 50/50 games, might finish on about 18 points - 15th.

13th - Brisbane Lions
14th - Melbourne - 24 points
15th - Richmond - 18 points
16th - Carlton - 16 points
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ this could happen come season's end!!! unlikely, i know, but weirder things have happened!!!

So guys, based on this, (i know its really unlikely and mainly a guess but it could happen) i think we are actually wooden spoon contenders. I think that Richmond are very unpredictable and Melbourne will not go down with out a true, hard fight. I know all the stuff i hav said is confusing, but just think about it, lol.

Thoughts???i think the brisbane game for us is 50 50

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Melb (MCG) - 50/50
Sydney (SCG) - 10/90
BL (G) - 40/60
St.kilda (TD) - 20/80
Coll (MCG) - 30/70
PA (AS) - 30/70
Ess (MCG) - 40/60
Kang (TD) - 35/65
Melb (MCG) - 50/50

[Thrawn]

Melb (MCG) - 60/40
Sydney (SCG) - 30/70
BL (G) - 50/50
St.kilda (TD) - 20/80
Coll (MCG) - 40/60
PA (AS) - 30/70
Ess (MCG) - 70/30
Kang (TD) - 40/60
Melb (MCG) - 60/40

We should be more confident going against Melbourne considering we beat them twice last year, and he fact that they're below us. Sydney aren't playing that well but at the SCG we're no chance, Brisbane is a 50/50 simply because they've been losing at lot at the Gabba and it's not a fortress anymore. We're usually competitive against Collingwood so we're not without a chance, Port at AAMI is a different prospect and they're gradually improving. We have the wood on Essendon and they seem to choke when we play them, I reckon we can beat them, Kangaroos is another team we can possibly beat as long as we remain competitive.

[banzai]

Richmond:
Kang (h) - won't win
Hawks (MCG) - won't win
PA (MCG) - 50/50
Syndey (SCG) - won't win
Geelong (SS) - won't win
Collingwood (MCG) - won't win
W.C. (S) - won't win
Essendon (MCG) - 50/50
St.Kilda (MCG) - 50/50
[B]Points possibly remaining: 12


Shocking run home for us, we still play the top 7 teams, Sydney away and St Kilda :eek:

There is simply no chance that we would win our last 2 to avoid getting a priority pick at the end of the first round (especially as we will be coming off 4 straight losses). The Essendon game will be Hirds last in Melbourne (depending on finals) so a big night will be planned and that wont help our chances. I think we can definetly beat North and Port, that will probably be it though.

[Andyt30]

Tigers Next 4 games
RICHMOND V
Kangaroos <5 goal win
Hawthorn < Hawks by 100pts
Port Adelaide < Easy win for Port 3-4 goal win
Sydney <30pt win

Melb Next 4 Games V
Carlton <- lets Repeat 2006 and beat em twice
Brisbane < close game
Port Adelaide< over their they should win
Sydney swans should win in a close game

So we got 50/50 of keeping of the bottom
were still 2 games clear of Melbourne
2 & 1/2 ahead of Richmond.

Lets hope Both Tigers & Melbourne lose.
win this week willl put us 3 games clear of Melbourne
handy buffer.

[The Old Dark Navy's]

St.kilda (TD) - 20/60
Melb (MCG) - 60/50

Mate, I hope you can count your pot percentages better than that! ;):p

[Thrawn]

Mate, I hope you can count your pot percentages better than that! ;):p

Oops, didn't realise. :o

There, look better?

7/9 would still give me a soild B+ ! ;)