Edfl Power Ratings

[bigbadmal]

ROUND 18 RATINGS

1) Catani 179
2) Nyora 164
3) Bunyip 147
4) Cora Lynn 140
5) Longwarry 140
6) Lang Lang 127
7) Poowong 126
8) Buln Buln 91
9) Nilma Darnum 87
10) Nar Nar Goon 85
11) Ellinbank 78
12) Neerim Sth 69
13) Kooweerup 50
14) Warragul Ind 3

[bigbadmal]

Round 18 Computer Tips -


Poowong v Longwarry 6pts
Lang Lang v Nyora 29pts
Cora Lynn v Kooweerup 98pts
Nilma Darnum v Nar Nar Goon 10pts
Neerim Sth v Warragul Ind 74pts
Buln Buln v Catani 80pts
Ellinbank v Bunyip 61pts

[goal sneak]

Yeah we are in the top 6. If only we could be 6th on the ladder.

[bigpapagman]

Round 18 Computer Tips -


Poowong v Longwarry 6pts
Lang Lang v Nyora 29pts
Cora Lynn v Kooweerup 98pts
Nilma Darnum v Nar Nar Goon 10pts
Neerim Sth v Warragul Ind 74pts
Buln Buln v Catani 80pts
Ellinbank v Bunyip 61pts

i dont think that they will beat us by that much.

[bigbadmal]

Final Power Rankings for 2007


1) Catani 188
2) Bunyip 156
3) Nyora 154
4) Cora Lynn 145
5) Longwarry 135
6) Lang Lang 125
7) Poowong 120
8) Nilma Darnum 95
9) Ellinbank 90
10) Nar Nar Goon 86
11) Buln Buln 84
12) Neerim Sth 70
13) Kooweerup 47
14) Warragul Industrials 11

[bigbadmal]

1st Elimination Final Bunyip v Longwarry 21 pts
2nd Elimination Final Poowong v Cora Lynn 25 pts

[bigpapagman]

how did we gain points by losing?

[bigbadmal]

how did we gain points by losing?


If every teams rating wasnt increased the dusties would have been negative!
It is the difference in rating not the value that is used to compare sides.

[bigpapagman]

its an interesting system...could you do one for the AFL?

[weLLa]

richmond would still be on the bottom bigpagagman

[bigpapagman]

yeah but i just wanna see by how much? :p

[goal sneak]

How do we beat Nyora and then go down?

[goodie]

How do we beat Nyora and then go down?
good question will be keen to hear the answer to this.

[bigbadmal]

How do we beat Nyora and then go down?


As i said early - ignore the numerical value.

It is the DIFFERENCE between values that is measured.

Last week Lang Lang were 37 points worse than Nyora now they are 29 points worse.

The reason there are larger values this week is because the Dusties would have been a negative rating if they were not increased as the top end.

[bigpapagman]

we deserve negative.

[Budda 230]

I don't rate this ratings thing. Isn't it just easier looking at the ladder?

[bigpapagman]

its to give you an idea of who should beat each other.... not how many games you have won.

[Budda 230]

I bet it didn't tell you Bunyip would lose this week. What I'm saying is that looking at the ladder would tell you just as much.

[goal sneak]

nah i like this one better. lang Lang is higgher on the ladder.

[Budda 230]

nah i like this one better. lang Lang is higgher on the ladder.

Well Dusties are still last. At least we took out the double.

[bigpapagman]

only thing we won all year.

[Budda 230]

only thing we won all year.

Yay for Dusties!!!

[bigpapagman]

yay for **** all.

[bigbadmal]

you cant look at the ladder cause it aint a fair draw. Unless evey team plays each other once at home and once away the ladder means jack!

[bigpapagman]

correct, i mean ours would be better had we played koo wee rup twice.

[Budda 230]

you cant look at the ladder cause it aint a fair draw. Unless evey team plays each other once at home and once away the ladder means jack!

I don't want to question your mathematical genius Patto, but there are going to be factors that make your rankings system inaccurate too. For example match ups, weather and injuries.

Unless you include such factors as these, I see this ranking system fairly pointless.

Have you got any records on the success rate of your system on the results of future matches? I'd like to be proven wrong.

[bigpapagman]

whoa buddha. settle down son. launch a vendetta next time. bbm's ranking system hasnt been all that far off the mark for the majority of the season.

[Budda 230]

whoa buddha. settle down son. launch a vendetta next time. bbm's ranking system hasnt been all that far off the mark for the majority of the season.

I think it's a fair point though yeah?

[bigpapagman]

yes, but maybe not as violent as you put it.

[Budda 230]

yes, but maybe not as violent as you put it.

I didn't mean to have a violent tone. I think because its a serious post it makes it sound worse than it really is....

[bigpapagman]

ah, i get the cut of your jib.

[bigbadmal]

Hey Guys this rating method is a mathematical formula that has proven successful in other forms of sport. In fact i have made quite a bit of money on sports such as American Football, Soccer and NRL where this system has been very accurate. I just thought i would give it a try on a local footy comp and no doubt it has come up trumps. Im pretty sure i would have tipped more winners than most including a couple of upsets. So much so they have given my computer a go in the Pakenham Gazette during the EDFL finals.
Obviously not all factors are taken into account like injuries, fitness etc. but what it does take into account is strength of opposition which a ladder does not. The final margin and home advantage is also considered and in a least-squares regression formula the margin errors are minimised to set the so called Power Ratings of each club. The model updates itself during the season and is most accurate towards the end which is finals time.
Of course there is going to be times when it is wrong (like Longwarry against bunyip - but in fairness it tipped Bunyip by 21 when all the experts were picking them by 60) but it is the overall success rate that counts and it is currently picking winners at a rate of around 75%. If anyone doubts the predictions I am happy to put money on them next season as the EDFL model will just get more accurate as more data is input.

Cheers
BBM

[bigpapagman]

i am a big advocate for the system. keep up the good work :thumbsu:

[Budda 230]

Hey Guys this rating method is a mathematical formula that has proven successful in other forms of sport. In fact i have made quite a bit of money on sports such as American Football, Soccer and NRL where this system has been very accurate. I just thought i would give it a try on a local footy comp and no doubt it has come up trumps. Im pretty sure i would have tipped more winners than most including a couple of upsets. So much so they have given my computer a go in the Pakenham Gazette during the EDFL finals.
Obviously not all factors are taken into account like injuries, fitness etc. but what it does take into account is strength of opposition which a ladder does not. The final margin and home advantage is also considered and in a least-squares regression formula the margin errors are minimised to set the so called Power Ratings of each club. The model updates itself during the season and is most accurate towards the end which is finals time.
Of course there is going to be times when it is wrong (like Longwarry against bunyip - but in fairness it tipped Bunyip by 21 when all the experts were picking them by 60) but it is the overall success rate that counts and it is currently picking winners at a rate of around 75%. If anyone doubts the predictions I am happy to put money on them next season as the EDFL model will just get more accurate as more data is input.

Cheers
BBM

Do you use it for AFL matches? You would have made a lazy $1 million by now yeah? :D

Are the margins very accurate? I've been looking for a margin system for years on AFL matches. It is very tough to predict margins when Melbourne based clubs play each other.

[bigpapagman]

you would have to start it from rd 1? am i right big bad mal?

[Budda 230]

you would have to start it from rd 1? am i right big bad mal?

Wouldn't you have to go back potentially a year or 2?

[bigpapagman]

nope. not even a little bit.

hypothetically you could start one now. but you would have to go all the way back to rd 1 & enter all of the results.

[Budda 230]

nope. not even a little bit.

hypothetically you could start one now. but you would have to go all the way back to rd 1 & enter all of the results.

Depends how accurate you want it I spose.

[bigpapagman]

well there is no point in having it if it isnt accurate.

[Budda 230]

True.

[bigpapagman]

but the system still gives you no lee-way for how teams match up. which is probably its biggest flaw.

[goal sneak]

Next year will the computer take this years results into consideration or just start afresh?

[bigpapagman]

i would assume that it would start afresh.

as is the nature of the system.