Slim top 4 chances. But we can still do it.

[Footylover1]

#TeamPl W L D PF PAPt Perc1

Geelong 22 19 3 0 2517 1625 76 154.8 2

West Coast 22 15 7 0 2142 1895 60 113.0 3

Hawthorn 22 14 8 0 2110 1845 56 114.3 7

Sydney 22 13 8 1 2032 1710 54 118.8 4

Port Adel 22 13 9 0 2288 2085 52 109.7 5

Kangaroos 22 13 9 0 2065 2017 52 102.3 12

Adelaide 22 12 10 0 1943 1755 48 110.7 6

Collingwood 22 12 10 0 2001 2056 48 97.3 8

St Kilda 22 11 10 1 1886 1931 46 97.6 10

Essendon 22 11 11 0 2162 2349 44 92.0 11

W Bulldogs 22 10 11 1 2157 2375 42 90.8 9

Bris Lions 22 9 11 2 2005 1872 40 107.1 13

Fremantle 22 10 12 0 2231 2190 40 101.8 14

Melbourne 22 5 17 0 1854 2378 20 77.9 15

Carlton 22 4 18 0 2162 2828 16 76.4 16

Richmond 22 2 19 1 1923 2567 10 74.9

We still have a chance for a top 4 spot if we win every game and results go our way.

[natlovestheswans]

I can't see the results going our way. Too much has to happen.

Right now we need to focus on playing hard footy and winning our next two games. They are both massive. If we go into the finals with two solid wins againest quality sides then it'll that will be a positive. Of course if we finish 5th-8th it'll be harder but that's the best they can hope for right now.

[VanBerlo=God]

I can't see the results going our way. Too much has to happen.

Right now we need to focus on playing hard footy and winning our next two games. They are both massive. If we go into the finals with two solid wins againest quality sides then it'll that will be a positive. Of course if we finish 5th-8th it'll be harder but that's the best they can hope for right now.
you have to hope
1) port adelaide lose every game
2) kangas lose every game
3) collingwood dont win another game
4) we don't lose another game (which won't happen i see us dropping to collingwood next week after last night's trashy performance)

[Footylover1]

you have to hope
1) port adelaide lose every game
2) kangas lose every game
3) collingwood dont win another game
4) we don't lose another game (which won't happen i see us dropping to collingwood next week after last night's trashy performance)

The Kangaroos don't have to lose every game. I had them winning the Carlton game and we still got in. :rolleyes:

[natlovestheswans]

What would really be great is if Port and Hawks draw today. So cheer for a draw. ;D

We really need the Bulldogs to do us a few favours over the next few weeks. They can start today by beating Adelaide, then next week beat Hawks and in round 22 beat the Kangaroos. So yeah, go Bulldogs!

[SWANNIES RULE]

I gave up on the top 4 ages ago to be honest. Even though there has always been a glimmer of hope, we simply lost too many games early in the year.

[swanniez1983]

I'm pretty sure we need two out of Port, Roos and Hawks to lose 2/3 games, while swans need to win last two games.

Getting the Hawks to lose two games would be the 'easiest' for us (port game and game against us).

Roos will hopefully lose against the cats today and need to lose against the Blues or Dogs

Port lose against Hawks today and perhaps against Freo (but played at AAMI).

I think Port is least likely to lose 2/3 so I would prefer that they win today to give hawks a loss. Just need either the Blues or Dogs to knock off the the Roos.

Simple :D

[grimlock]

Just keep winning and hope something falls our way. I remember last year Melbourne unexpectedly lost to Carlton, if the didn't, we wouldn't have made the top 4. So you never know.

[Footylover1]

Just keep winning and hope something falls our way. I remember last year Melbourne unexpectedly lost to Carlton, if the didn't, we wouldn't have made the top 4. So you never know.

Exactly, anything can happen!

[rancidpants13]

I gave up on the top 4 ages ago to be honest. Even though there has always been a glimmer of hope, we simply lost too many games early in the year.

i thought we might just be hitting the form to take us to top four, and last night was a disappointment, but it is not the end of the world.....take out browny and that massive goal and we were about to beat a form team on their turf after some serious hiccups in our line-up....if we win the next two and somehow still miss top four it's also not the end of the world, at some point a team will win the flag from outside top four, all it takes is four winning finals, and we almost did that in 05 anyway
i'll say what i said a month or so ago: the swans are the only team capable of winning four finals games on the trot and winning the flag, i still believe that.....we do need to get some key players back fit, and we certainly need hall and co to kick better, but we DID NOT LOSE LAST NIGHT, our form is not great but still lost to only weagles and geelong on the road in past 6-7 weeks....we've got two winnable games left, let's see what happens

[grimlock]

I think we have more chance of missing the Top 8 than getting into the Top 4.

[swanniez1983]

Damn you Ebert! A draw would have been great today...

Anyways, Port winning and the Roos losing still gives us hope. Just need either the Blues or Dogs to beat the Roos in the next two weeks (with us winning the next two).

[CharlieG]

Our simplest and most likely path to fourth is:
Sydney d Collingwood
Sydney d Hawthorn
Bulldogs d Kangaroos

We can also still make second, although it would take a freak series of results to occur:
St Kilda d West Coast
Sydney d Collingwood
Geelong d Port Adelaide
Essendon d West Coast
Fremantle d Port Adelaide
Sydney d Hawthorn
Bulldogs d Kangaroos OR Carlton d Kangaroos

[Tuco]

I might just take a win this week and get into the 8 for starters.

[swannykika]

I might just take a win this week and get into the 8 for starters.

Im with Tuco. Swans have struggled to beat anyone above them this year, and Collingwood at the MCG will be a bloody difficult task believe me. Buckley is likely to be back, and similar to the return of Cousins, will provide great incentive for the Magpies to play well, which they seem to do against us anyway. The Swans have failed to step up almost every time they could have put themselves in a fantastic ladder position. Had they have done so, they would be clear second, but then, if Elvis hadnt taken all them pills, he'd still be singin heartbreak hotel, especially after the Brisbane game.

[CharlieG]

If we don't have a realistic chance of winning the premiership, I don't care where we finish.

[floppinab]

We can also still make second, although it would take a freak series of results to occur:
St Kilda d West Coast
Sydney d Collingwood
Geelong d Port Adelaide
Essendon d West Coast
Fremantle d Port Adelaide
Sydney d Hawthorn
Bulldogs d Kangaroos OR Carlton d Kangaroos

All not within the realms of impossiblity except for that one. No chance

[CharlieG]

All not within the realms of impossiblity except for that one. No chance

The *only* thing that prompts me to give Essendon a one-in-a-hundred chance is that it is Sheedy's last game. I guess it raises the question of whether teams go about emotional games differently to ordinary ones.

[DeadlyAkkuret]

If we win our remaining two games, and the Roos drop one, we make the top 4, correct?

[Footylover1]

If we win our remaining two games, and the Roos drop one, we make the top 4, correct?

I think that's correct. :thumbsu:

[philhawk]

If we win our remaining two games, and the Roos drop one, we make the top 4, correct?

Dont think so? Roos aren't even in the Top 4 currently?

I think the Swans need,

Port to lose their next two (vs Geelong and Freo - very possible)

Hawthorn to lose 1 of their 2 (vs Sydney in the last round - not possible ;))

West Coast to drop a match (vs either Essendon or St Kilda - the emotion for Sheedy and Hird's last game could get the Bombers over the line).

But really, the Swans' best bet is to beat the Hawks in Round 22 (as well as this weekend, obviously) - but for Port to get thrashed this weekend and lose the next weekend.

[Footylover1]

Dont think so? Roos aren't even in the Top 4 currently?

I think the Swans need,

Port to lose their next two (vs Geelong and Freo - very possible)

Hawthorn to lose 1 of their 2 (vs Sydney in the last round - not possible ;))

West Coast to drop a match (vs either Essendon or St Kilda - the emotion for Sheedy and Hird's last game could get the Bombers over the line).

But really, the Swans' best bet is to beat the Hawks in Round 22 (as well as this weekend, obviously) - but for Port to get thrashed this weekend and lose the next weekend.

The Kangaroos v Bulldogs game will be crucial to our chances if we win both games. The Kangaroos to could seal the top 4 spot if they too win both their games. That's why all Swans supporters will be barracking for the Bulldogs on the Sunday to gain the top 4 spot. ;)

[Bryceson]

If we don't have a realistic chance of winning the premiership, I don't care where we finish.
You have a very realistic chance of winning the premiership. I hope we don't come up against you in the finals cos i reckon we'd come off second best especially if it was in Sydney(allthough that is unlikly)......

[natlovestheswans]

Dont think so? Roos aren't even in the Top 4 currently?



If we win both of our games then we'll go ahead of the Hawks and Pies on %, leaving us 5th and the Kangaroos in the top 4 (if they win both of their games). But if the Kangaroos drop one of their games we will go ahead of them on %.

[Footylover1]

If we win both of our games then we'll go ahead of the Hawks and Pies on %, leaving us 5th and the Kangaroos in the top 4 (if they win both of their games). But if the Kangaroos drop one of their games we will go ahead of them on %.

Percentage don't come into it because of the draw Nat. We'll overtake the Hawks and Magpies by 2 points if we beat them both. ;)

[natlovestheswans]

Percentage don't come into it because of the draw Nat. We'll overtake the Hawks and Magpies by 2 points if we beat them both. ;)

Ah yes, i keep forgetting that we had a draw!

[Bloods boy from the Bush]

Ah yes, i keep forgetting that we had a draw!
It is best just to forget about it isn't it.

Personally I just marked it down as a loss because that is what it was we had the game won and lost it.

[SouthSwans]

(Apart from obviously us v Collingwood and us v Hawthorn) Kangaroos v Bulldogs and Port v Freo suddenly become the two most important games of the year for us in terms of a premiership thrust.

[CharlieG]

If we win our remaining two games, and the Roos drop one, we make the top 4, correct?

Correct. We can put ourselves into fifth by beating Collingwood and Hawthorn. We need either the Kangaroos to drop a game or for Port or West Coast to drop both in order to get into fourth.

If all of these events happen, we finish second.

[Skystyler]

suddenly I'm a big bulldogs fan.

They play the hawks, then the roos.

Its just great the last 2 games of the season are against the 2 sides immediately above us on the ladder. It means we are masters of our destiny from here on in to finish at least 5th. Given the games we've lost this year that we should've won, I'd say that is extremely fortunate.

[Tuco]

suddenly I'm a big bulldogs fan.

Its just great the last 2 games of the season are against the 2 sides immediately above us on the ladder. It means we are masters of our destiny from here on in to finish at least 5th. Given the games we've lost this year that we should've won, I'd say that is extremely fortunate.

My thoughts exactly!

We've had one of the harder runs home of any finals contender this year, and I'm hoping this will harden us up for the campaign quite nicely. :thumbsu:

[Bloods boy from the Bush]

My thoughts exactly!

We've had one of the harder runs home of any finals contender this year, and I'm hoping this will harden us up for the campaign quite nicely. :thumbsu:
Umm I would have thought until this week we have had the one of the softest runs home of any finals contender.

in the last 7 Weeks we have only played 2 top 8 teams for a loss and a win. The rest have been against the bottom 4 and the other one we drew.

We have been lucky its been such an easy ride until now.

[swannykika]

Umm I would have thought until this week we have had the one of the softest runs home of any finals contender.

in the last 7 Weeks we have only played 2 top 8 teams for a loss and a win. The rest have been against the bottom 4 and the other one we drew.

We have been lucky its been such an easy ride until now.

i agree. we've had a piss easy run up till now over the past 6 weeks, the next two games are gonna test the metal for 2007. win them and we can go all the way, lose either and it shows we are still unable to string more than 2 wins together in a row against top 8 teams.

[Tuco]

Hmm. I'm looking more at our last month of the year which will have been:

Hawks: Home, Top 3-4ish side

Pies: Away, top 4ish side (6th on percentage)

Bris: Away, top 8 side, had won 5 from 6 and were in best form of the year - inc wins over WC, Coll, and Kangas kicking well over 100pts per game)

StKilda: top 8ish (had won 5 from 7 plus a draw also finding very good form).

We haven't got the hardest run of any side. But it is a very willing buch of opponents. Not one of those teams wasn't/isn't directly contesting the top 8 positions with us. And two of them are away games. Can't see anything piss easy about those fixtures. :confused: