Everyone's tipping us to finish bottom 4 again

[fightingdreamer88]

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[RoosterLad]

1) Can't see that thread. Please elaborate.

2) BigFooty bellends does not equal 'everyone'.

We won't finish bottom 4, we will be around the mark again. I can feel it in my loins.

[Dandy_GO]

On the first page, only Rory and a crazy Freo supporter have us in the bottom four, and a Melbourne supporter actually stands up for us.
I think everyone knows by now that even in really shitouse years, we rarely drop below 12th.

[RoosterLad]

Dandy GO... even Rucci mentioned that in a recent article in the Tiser.

[fantastic_crows]

'Everyone' :rolleyes:

Theres no way we'll finish bottom 4 and most people have said that.

[macca23]

Everyone??

Rubbish.

I just counted from the most recent post backward and soon stopped after only 2 out of 22 posters with opinions had us in their bottom 4.

Slightly mis-leading thread IMO.

[RoosterLad]

Slightly mis-leading thread IMO.

Using the word 'slightly' is slightly mis-leading.

[macca23]

Using the word 'slightly' is slightly mis-leading.

:D:D

You're right, but I was just trying to be polite. :)

[macca23]

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http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?t=389725



Edited to include thread referred to originally. :D

[James_37]

They can write us off at their own peril, we will be around the mark again this year, Craig's greatest quality is that he can create a top class team from an average list, he showed this in 05/06, unfortunately a few things went wrong in 07, I expect him to be burning to correct this and plan meticulously for this coming season, watch out for us in 08.

[crowman_23]

Will be an interesting year though. While we are generally around the mark regardless, some of our delistings have suggested that we may be taking a different approach to next season. Will be interesting to see how we go. Hopefully we can still be up in the mix but it's a lot harder to jusge than most years.

[King Elvis]

**** those idiots.

While some of us have been questioning a few things going on within the AFC, our Culture, Club and Coach wont let us finish in the bottom 4.

[Jakko]

I cant see you guys being bottom 4 unless theres a horror run of injures, AND some 1-4 year players dont progress.

Im actually looking forward to seeing what can become of Tippet, Sellar and Mackay. :thumbsu:

[maccas_no1]

Anywhere between 5th to 9th IMO

[kimirocks]

We are either going to have another amazing season - ala 2005, or **** it up real bad, with a 9th or 10th. I'll wait and see, but I just want the focus to be on the kids, get them ready. We saw with Port this year how far they went by backing their kids, no reason why we can't go that one step further, as difficult as it may seem.

[SA Tricolours]

I think I read the other day that the bookies had the Crows as 8th for the flag next year

[pjcrows]

We'll be competitive in most games and finish 9th-12th, blooding a lot of youngsters along the way.

[Gets!]

AFC - 2008 Premiers.

[- PC -]

We are either going to have another amazing season - ala 2005, or **** it up real bad, with a 9th or 10th. I'll wait and see, but I just want the focus to be on the kids, get them ready. We saw with Port this year how far they went by backing their kids, no reason why we can't go that one step further, as difficult as it may seem.

I pencilled in 15 wins :eek: but attitude will determine a lot of that

[Asgardian]

Too soon to predict a 2008 ladder, have to wait until all of the recruiting & drafts have finished.

Ben Cousins may have some impact?

There are a couple of uncontracted players still to be sorted out.

For example if, and it is a very unlikely 'if', Ben Rutten went to Carlton, I can see them jumping several spots up the ladder.

[PCORF]

AFC - 2008 Premiers.

Very Unlikely with this team.

[birdmanptr]

Too soon to predict a 2008 ladder, have to wait until all of the recruiting & drafts have finished.

Ben Cousins may have some impact?

There are a couple of uncontracted players still to be sorted out.

For example if, and it is a very unlikely 'if', Ben Rutten went to Carlton, I can see them jumping several spots up the ladder.

I to am confused as to why we did not push harder for this:rolleyes:Way past his best

[topjars]

I think I tipped us to finish eighth last year - Next year we'll finish higher:)

[RoosterLad]

I to am confused as to why we did not push harder for this:rolleyes:Way past his best

Agreed. Should have traded him for Whitnall.

[Gets!]

You do take a vested interest in the AFC asgardian

[earlsta]

Goodwin and Edwards will slow down...dunno about McLeod though..

The rest of our crop will hopefully get better, Knights, Thompson would be pushing into the elite midfielder category, with Van Berlo not far behind. Douglas with more beef on him will be very very good, just look at WCE in the practice match against Judd, Kerr, Cox...Dougy was tagging Judd? Managed to get around 30 touches......


Backlines will be as good as ever, Bock AA mark it, Rutten cool, Bassett good as always, Stevens will get better :thumbsu:. Stiffy will be better, we can cover Torney in there...Massie might need to make way half way through the year.

Fwd line will be the one I can't wait to see, I'd expect come Rd1. we'll have Tippett, Hentschel and I won't be suprised to see Sellar there...he's a very big boy...wait and see what happens pre-season time..not suprised if Craig throws him into the deep-end IF Sellar has a stand-out preseason.
Look at Van-Berlo.

And look for Walker to debut in the second half off the year...;). Did well against men :thumbsu:

[Stiffy_18]

Fwd line will be the one I can't wait to see, I'd expect come Rd1. we'll have Tippett, Hentschel and I won't be suprised to see Sellar there...he's a very big boy...wait and see what happens pre-season time..not suprised if Craig throws him into the deep-end IF Sellar has a stand-out preseason. Look at Van-Berlo.

I very much doubt Craig will have Tippett, Sellar and Hentschel all in the same forward line come round 1.

I don't expect to see Hentschel in our team in round 1. I think he will spend some time in SANFL to get some confidence and games under his belt before making a return to AFL football, most likely as a defender.

Tippett, I could see being there round 1 if he can have injury free pre-season. Craig is a big fan and I got NO doubt he would have played games this year if he didn't get injured.

Sellar is MILES off. He is a big unit and very talented no doubt but he will take time to make it, if he makes it. I hope he can put in a MASSIVE pre-season and put his hand up. I hope Pfeiffer's sacking is a wake up call for Sellar. Pfieffer was another one with talent to burn but not the right attitude for an AFL footballer. Hopefully, Sellar learns from that.

The only player I can see being there in our team to face the Bulldogs in round 1 is Tippett. I could see some young midfielders getting a game early on but from key forwards, the only one I see getting a game at this stage is Tippett.

[Vader]

It's hard to see us finishing in the bottom four while we still have so many of our quality veterans still available. However, a bottom four finish in 2010-2011 is not only possible but highly likely

[crowman_23]

It's hard to see us finishing in the bottom four while we still have so many of our quality veterans still available. However, a bottom four finish in 2010-2011 is not only possible but highly likely

Highly likely? That is a ridiculous comment. We have no idea what sides will be looking like in 2010/11, saying we are highly likely to be in the bottom four is just rubbish. Stupid comment.

[fightingdreamer88]

I very much doubt Craig will have Tippett, Sellar and Hentschel all in the same forward line come round 1.

I don't expect to see Hentschel in our team in round 1. I think he will spend some time in SANFL to get some confidence and games under his belt before making a return to AFL football, most likely as a defender.

Tippett, I could see being there round 1 if he can have injury free pre-season. Craig is a big fan and I got NO doubt he would have played games this year if he didn't get injured.

Sellar is MILES off. He is a big unit and very talented no doubt but he will take time to make it, if he makes it. I hope he can put in a MASSIVE pre-season and put his hand up. I hope Pfeiffer's sacking is a wake up call for Sellar. Pfieffer was another one with talent to burn but not the right attitude for an AFL footballer. Hopefully, Sellar learns from that.

The only player I can see being there in our team to face the Bulldogs in round 1 is Tippett. I could see some young midfielders getting a game early on but from key forwards, the only one I see getting a game at this stage is Tippett.

I just hope we start to see some good stuff from him at SANFL level even. Showed near enough to zip in 2007 and there are potential reasons for that; needs to get that extra pre season under his belt and hit the ground running next year.

[SpringChoke]

If we have a good run with injury etc - 6th-9th

If we have another terrible run like this year - 8th-12th.

[*PAF]

Bit early to do predictions just yet, but at this early stage but here goes.
Port: Top 4 to just outside bottom 4.
Crows: Just outside top 4 to just inside bottom 4

Once the pre season is under way we can narrow it down a bit more.

[Seanason]

more reason to shove it up thier arse when we win it next year.

[*PAF]

more reason to shove it up thier arse when we win it next year.
Who's arse? :confused:
The 98% who didn't tip you to finish bottom 4 or the remaining 2% that did? Talk about being touchy. :p

[Kane McGoodwin]

Apart from the Cats, there is no other standout team. West Coast are no longer in this category without Judd & Cousins, having lost quality midfield/depth.

The Crows could easily finish anywhere between 2nd & 13th, with injuries likely to be a major factor. All things being equal I would say 5th-8th most likely.

Asumming Rutten & to a lesser degree Bock stay sound, then our defence will keep us in most games. It's the midfield & our misfiring attack that will have the biggest say. I'm happy to put up with some inconsistent performances if it means we have given some of the younger guys a decent go.

[Vader]

Highly likely? That is a ridiculous comment. We have no idea what sides will be looking like in 2010/11, saying we are highly likely to be in the bottom four is just rubbish. Stupid comment.

Put it this way...

By 2010, I expect all of our current superstar veterans to have retired or have been given their marching orders. McLeod may still be around, but I wouldn't be betting on it.

As has been previously discussed, our 26-29yo group are all "backboners" and SHOULD all be gone during the same period. It is highly likely that the oldest player on our list, at the start of the 2010 season will be a 28yo Scott Stevens.

The two most experienced players on our list will by Graham Johncock and Scott Thompson, both with significantly less than 200 games to their credit (Stiffy around 170 games, Thompson 150, both barring injury). They are the only players currently on our list, who will be around in 2010, who have played 100+ games to date.

Assuming that we recruit predominantly teenagers in the next 3 drafts, we will potentially have around 20 kids under the age of 21 on our list. That's an awful lot of inexperience. We currently have 3 teenagers listed, will (hopefully) be drafting 6 more next month, with 11 more to be drafted in as replacements for the players currently aged 26+ - not counting any delistings from the more youthful elements of our list (eg Pfeiffer).

This is a significant drop in experience - not just across our list, but across our starting 22. You can't lose that much experience without it having a dramatic effect on your on-field performances.

The reason why most people think "it couldn't happen to us" is because of our massive home ground advantage - 12 games at Football Park. They assume that Adelaide will always win at least 50% of our home games, enough to keep us out of the bottom four. Sadly, there are no such guarrantees.

Consider 2001:

West Coast and Fremantle finished 14th and 16th respectively, split by St Kilda.
West Coast won 5 games for the year, two of which were derbies, with two of the remaining victories coming at the expense of the hapless Saints. They won only 2 of 10 games against non-WA sides at Subiaco.
Fremantle won only two games for the year - a home win over Adelaide (in R22) and an away win over Hawthorn.


Most people would consider the trip to Perth more arduous than Adelaide - flight times are considerably longer and the extra time zone difference makes a small but significant factor as well. If the WA based sides managed 2 & 1 wins respectively against non-WA sides in their annus-horribilus, what makes us think that the AFC are guarranteed to win a minimum of 50% of our home games?

I do not expect to see a massive drop-off in Adelaide's performances in 2008 - though I don't expect them to be playing finals in 2008. As has been discussed elsewhere, the players who have been delisted or traded have ready-made replacements available (with the exception of Ben Hudson). However, we have now lost most of our backbone/fringe players who would have been called upon in case of injury. Injuries will now by necessity result in games to our crusher brigade. However, the delistings in 2008 & 2009 will come from players currently in our best-22, which has not previously been the case. This is what will cause a dramatic downturn in Adelaide's on-field performances in the longer term.

[FlyingCrow]

Put it this way...

By 2010, I expect all of our current superstar veterans to have retired or have been given their marching orders. McLeod may still be around, but I wouldn't be betting on it.

As has been previously discussed, our 26-29yo group are all "backboners" and SHOULD all be gone during the same period. It is highly likely that the oldest player on our list, at the start of the 2010 season will be a 28yo Scott Stevens.

The two most experienced players on our list will by Graham Johncock and Scott Thompson, both with significantly less than 200 games to their credit (Stiffy around 170 games, Thompson 150, both barring injury). They are the only players currently on our list, who will be around in 2010, who have played 100+ games to date.

Assuming that we recruit predominantly teenagers in the next 3 drafts, we will potentially have around 20 kids under the age of 21 on our list. That's an awful lot of inexperience. We currently have 3 teenagers listed, will (hopefully) be drafting 6 more next month, with 11 more to be drafted in as replacements for the players currently aged 26+ - not counting any delistings from the more youthful elements of our list (eg Pfeiffer).

This is a significant drop in experience - not just across our list, but across our starting 22. You can't lose that much experience without it having a dramatic effect on your on-field performances.

The reason why most people think "it couldn't happen to us" is because of our massive home ground advantage - 12 games at Football Park. They assume that Adelaide will always win at least 50% of our home games, enough to keep us out of the bottom four. Sadly, there are no such guarrantees.

Consider 2001:

West Coast and Fremantle finished 14th and 16th respectively, split by St Kilda.
West Coast won 5 games for the year, two of which were derbies, with two of the remaining victories coming at the expense of the hapless Saints. They won only 2 of 10 games against non-WA sides at Subiaco.
Fremantle won only two games for the year - a home win over Adelaide (in R22) and an away win over Hawthorn.


Most people would consider the trip to Perth more arduous than Adelaide - flight times are considerably longer and the extra time zone difference makes a small but significant factor as well. If the WA based sides managed 2 & 1 wins respectively against non-WA sides in their annus-horribilus, what makes us think that the AFC are guarranteed to win a minimum of 50% of our home games?

I do not expect to see a massive drop-off in Adelaide's performances in 2008 - though I don't expect them to be playing finals in 2008. As has been discussed elsewhere, the players who have been delisted or traded have ready-made replacements available (with the exception of Ben Hudson). However, we have now lost most of our backbone/fringe players who would have been called upon in case of injury. Injuries will now by necessity result in games to our crusher brigade. However, the delistings in 2008 & 2009 will come from players currently in our best-22, which has not previously been the case. This is what will cause a dramatic downturn in Adelaide's on-field performances in the longer term.
This is all true...One thing Adelaie does have, and the kids are showing is heart. We rarely get flogged. Why is that? It could be craigys negating tactics, but it also coem down to our players having some pride. We dont just sing about it we show it on the field. I doubt any gropu of Crows players will allow us to wi less then half of our games at Footy park. We alos play well at Telstra dome.

This year was one of our worse years since the flags. Honestly we played terroble Football. We saw Craigy plan b for msot of this year. Our team was a patchwork of players, rarely having the same team on the park for two weeks in a row. We played ugly ootball. But guess what we made the 8. We made the 8, because our group of players have guts and pride in Playing for our club. This is why I believe our club will not finish bottom four. I beleive we have more of a chance at top four than bottom four. Our mostly possie will be 7-10th.

[Vader]

This is all true...One thing Adelaie does have, and the kids are showing is heart. We rarely get flogged. Why is that? It could be craigys negating tactics, but it also coem down to our players having some pride. We dont just sing about it we show it on the field. I doubt any gropu of Crows players will allow us to wi less then half of our games at Footy park. We alos play well at Telstra dome.

This year was one of our worse years since the flags. Honestly we played terroble Football. We saw Craigy plan b for msot of this year. Our team was a patchwork of players, rarely having the same team on the park for two weeks in a row. We played ugly ootball. But guess what we made the 8. We made the 8, because our group of players have guts and pride in Playing for our club. This is why I believe our club will not finish bottom four. I beleive we have more of a chance at top four than bottom four. Our mostly possie will be 7-10th.

It is certainly true that the Crows have a great deal of pride in their performance, something which Neil Craig has been keen to engender within the playing group.

I wouldn't argue that Freo have ever had this, but is this not also something true of the West Coast Eagles though?

Pride is well and good. But when you don't have the experience or the hardened physical AFL bodies, then pride simply isn't enough.

2008 will be a reasonable year for the Crows. They won't make the eight, but should finish around 9-12th. That's my bet. My big call about falling to the bottom quartile of the ladder is in future years (2010-2011) when our hardened senior players are all gone.

[Crowked]

Have we ever finished in the bottom 4?

Cant see it happening any time soon. Onward and upward we'll go!!

[macca23]

Have we ever finished in the bottom 4?

Cant see it happening any time soon. Onward and upward we'll go!!



13th in 1999 weren't we??

The same year that Malcolm Blight suffered from mad cow disease. :)

[Vader]

Have we ever finished in the bottom 4?

Cant see it happening any time soon. Onward and upward we'll go!!

We finished 13th in 1999.

However, for the past decade we've been blessed with an outstanding midfield built around the fab four - McLeod, Roo, Goodwin & Edwards. Roo is already gone and by 2010 I expect the others to have joined him. This will make a massive difference.

[NikkiNoo]

We finished 13th in 1999.

However, for the past decade we've been blessed with an outstanding midfield built around the fab four - McLeod, Roo, Goodwin & Edwards. Roo is already gone and by 2010 I expect the others to have joined him. This will make a massive difference.

Although our best two years have been 2005 and 2006.

In 2006 Roo started playing cameos in the midfield while mainly playing up forward. McLeod was very rarely sighted in the midfield during those years. So really we have only seen Goodwin and Edwards on a regular basis in the middle.

We have been bringing other players into the midfield to replace these guys. I see Thompson and Reilly as adequate replacements for both Edwards and Goodwin. So, in my mind, there will not be this great drop off in talent in the team that many are predicting.

[Stiffy_18]

We finished 13th in 1999.

However, for the past decade we've been blessed with an outstanding midfield built around the fab four - McLeod, Roo, Goodwin & Edwards. Roo is already gone and by 2010 I expect the others to have joined him. This will make a massive difference.
Whether or not that makes a massive difference will depend entirely on how we go about replacing those players. We do have some good young kids in the midfield that can step up and be good midfielders for us. If we snatch a couple of genuine on ball guns in the next couple of drafts we will be OK. We already have Thompson and Reilly as the established midfielders who are in a way already taking over from Goodwin and Edwards in the guts. And then there are youngsters like Nathan van Berlo and Chris Knights who are alreayd regular midfielders for us and will keep developing.

No doubt the loss of the fab 4 will have its effect but we also need to take into accoubt the improvement that you get from other players on our list and the loss shouldn't be as HUGE as many are predicting. There is still some improvement left in Thompson, Reilly, van Berlo and Kngiths and then there are other kids that are coming through and being pushed into the midfield, the likes of Douglas, Vince, MacKay etc....

You won't get the out and out champions like Roo, Goodwin, McLeod type players but you will get some VERY good AFL footballers who are more than capable. Players like the 3 I have mentioned don't come around too often and we have been blessed to have those guys at the same time forming a very strong nucleus. Throughout our time in the AFL we have always had good midfield and I don't think it will be a huge problem going forward. We won't find another Roo or McLeod but who will?! ;)

As long as we can get quality players into the midfield we will be fine and I am confident that we have some good young talent coming through there and I hope we can add to that in the next couple of years.

We have a good mix of young KPP, ruckman and running players. With Walker, Tippett, Sellar and Hentschel surely we could come up with 2 long term AFL players. The key defensive spots are set with Rutten, Bock and Stevens and the running types we have a few of that will be good AFL players. Add a few more to that list and we will be OK. I don't think we will suck as much as Carlton, Richmond et al have done in recent times.

[Freddy Bassett]

I think we are a good chance of top 4 next year. Last year we were 2 players short before the season started. We had terrible injuries, an ordinary draw and no luck in close games. We kept playing teams after their coach had been sacked and felling the full brunt. With a bit of luck we will be a serious threat. We will certainly finish higher than Port.:thumbsu:

[Stiffy_18]

I think we are a good chance of top 4 next year. Last year we were 2 players short before the season started. We had terrible injuries, an ordinary draw and no luck in close games. We kept playing teams after their coach had been sacked and felling the full brunt. With a bit of luck we will be a serious threat. We will certainly finish higher than Port.:thumbsu:
Not sure about top 4 but depending on how the kids come on, and a half decent run with injuries and we should make the top 8.

A LOT will depend on how the young rucks come along as well as our key forwards and how they come along. Can Hentschel get back to his best quickly, will Tippett provide us with that tall, strong, stay under the flight of the ball forward that Craig is after? Will Welsh and Burton have injury free years and play well together in the forward line.

Many factors to consider and many possible outcomes. I wouldn't be surprised if we made the top 4 but by the same token I wouldn't be surprised if we missed out on the finals all together but all things being equal, I just can't see us finishing bottom 4.

[Vader]

Whether or not that makes a massive difference will depend entirely on how we go about replacing those players. We do have some good young kids in the midfield that can step up and be good midfielders for us. If we snatch a couple of genuine on ball guns in the next couple of drafts we will be OK. We already have Thompson and Reilly as the established midfielders who are in a way already taking over from Goodwin and Edwards in the guts. And then there are youngsters like Nathan van Berlo and Chris Knights who are alreayd regular midfielders for us and will keep developing.

No doubt the loss of the fab 4 will have its effect but we also need to take into accoubt the improvement that you get from other players on our list and the loss shouldn't be as HUGE as many are predicting. There is still some improvement left in Thompson, Reilly, van Berlo and Kngiths and then there are other kids that are coming through and being pushed into the midfield, the likes of Douglas, Vince, MacKay etc....

You won't get the out and out champions like Roo, Goodwin, McLeod type players but you will get some VERY good AFL footballers who are more than capable. Players like the 3 I have mentioned don't come around too often and we have been blessed to have those guys at the same time forming a very strong nucleus. Throughout our time in the AFL we have always had good midfield and I don't think it will be a huge problem going forward. We won't find another Roo or McLeod but who will?! ;)

As long as we can get quality players into the midfield we will be fine and I am confident that we have some good young talent coming through there and I hope we can add to that in the next couple of years.

We have a good mix of young KPP, ruckman and running players. With Walker, Tippett, Sellar and Hentschel surely we could come up with 2 long term AFL players. The key defensive spots are set with Rutten, Bock and Stevens and the running types we have a few of that will be good AFL players. Add a few more to that list and we will be OK. I don't think we will suck as much as Carlton, Richmond et al have done in recent times.

It's true that the likes of Edwards, Goodwin and Macca are spending less time in the middle. It's also true that Roo had virtually no impact on season 2007 whatsoever.

However, it is also true that these players finished 1st, 2nd and 4th in the AFC Club Champion award. It is thus very difficult to argue that they are not still playing an extremely important role within the team, even if they weren't spending as much time in the midfield.

We'll never have another Goodwin, McLeod, Ricciuto, Edwards combination. Instead we'll have a Thompson, Knights, Van Berlo, Reilly combination in the centre. That's not a bad thing. The question then becomes who steps up to take the shoes of Thommo, Knighter, VB and Radar when they have stepped up to take the place of the veterans?

Between now an 2010, we will be losing the following players:
Andrew McLeod, Simon Goodwin, Tyson Edwards, Nathan Bassett, Rhett Biglands, Brett Burton, Scott Welsh, Michael Doughty, Kris Massie, Robert Shirley and Ken McGregor.

Of those, only Doughty and Massie would be considered not to be members of our best 22. Collectively, it's 1903 games of experience (1665 if you discount Massie & Doughty). Their replacements as named (Vince, Douglas & MacKay) have a grand total of 26 games between them. That's a LOT of experience we'll be losing.

On the positive side, our forward line prospects have NEVER looked this good since Modra, Robran and Jarman departed. However, not one of those kids have proven anything to date - Sellar, Walker & Tippett have played a grand total of 0 AFL games. Hentschel has 61 to his credit, but who knows if he will be the same after his horrendous knee injury?

The biggest question mark of all hangs over our ruck division. Griffin & Maric have looked OK so far, but then again little has been expected of them and they've had Hudson to guide them and carry the bulk of the burden. We will learn a LOT about the future now that these guys have to do all the work themselves in 2008.

[Stiffy_18]

It's true that the likes of Edwards, Goodwin and Macca are spending less time in the middle. It's also true that Roo had virtually no impact on season 2007 whatsoever.

However, it is also true that these players finished 1st, 2nd and 4th in the AFC Club Champion award. It is thus very difficult to argue that they are not still playing an extremely important role within the team, even if they weren't spending as much time in the midfield.

We'll never have another Goodwin, McLeod, Ricciuto, Edwards combination. Instead we'll have a Thompson, Knights, Van Berlo, Reilly combination in the centre. That's not a bad thing. The question then becomes who steps up to take the shoes of Thommo, Knighter, VB and Radar when they have stepped up to take the place of the veterans?

Between now an 2010, we will be losing the following players:
Andrew McLeod, Simon Goodwin, Tyson Edwards, Nathan Bassett, Rhett Biglands, Brett Burton, Scott Welsh, Michael Doughty, Kris Massie, Robert Shirley and Ken McGregor.

Of those, only Doughty and Massie would be considered not to be members of our best 22. Collectively, it's 1903 games of experience (1665 if you discount Massie & Doughty). Their replacements as named (Vince, Douglas & MacKay) have a grand total of 26 games between them. That's a LOT of experience we'll be losing.

On the positive side, our forward line prospects have NEVER looked this good since Modra, Robran and Jarman departed. However, not one of those kids have proven anything to date - Sellar, Walker & Tippett have played a grand total of 0 AFL games. Hentschel has 61 to his credit, but who knows if he will be the same after his horrendous knee injury?

The biggest question mark of all hangs over our ruck division. Griffin & Maric have looked OK so far, but then again little has been expected of them and they've had Hudson to guide them and carry the bulk of the burden. We will learn a LOT about the future now that these guys have to do all the work themselves in 2008.
No doubt the guns are still performing whether in the midfield or not. However, while they finished high in the B&F, there were some young guys who also finished top 10 so the reliance on these older guys is slowly decreasing while the reponsibility of younger guys is increasing. Its a steady progress. Guys like Knights, van Berlo and Thompson were top 10 in the B&F.

You ask the question who will step in to fill in for Thompson, Reilly, van Berlo and Knights as they step up to cover the fab 4?! Three years ago we were asking who will step up to cover for the top 4 in 203 years time and we found players to do it. Not the same class players mind you, and we will not replace Roo, McLeod, Goodwin et al with the like talent. Thats just a pipe dream from us supporters. We would all love it to happen but we will have to rely on depth rather than genuine talent. Prior to this year no one would think that James Bartel and Gary Ablett Jr were genuine Brownlow medal chances. They took another step to the elite status.

While the likes of Thompson, Reilly, van Berlo and Knights step up to take the reins from Roo, Goodwin, McLeod and Edwards, the likes of Douglas, Vince, Porplyzia and MacKay will step up and take the slack left by Thompson, Reilly, van Berlo and Knights so we still have 8 very good players to rotate through the midfield rather than 4 genuine guns with some solid players under-neath them.

If 3 years ago someone came on here and said that in 2 years time we will play off in PF with out having Roo play in the midfield we all woudl have said they need their head read ;)

The natural progress will happen. What we need to make sure is that we keep bringing in some genuine midfield talent into the club, develop that talent and give it a chance to play. The same way van Berlo and Knights emerged onto the scene, someone else will emerge to take thier spots.

We just need to make sure that our drafting is spot on, our development of those players is spot on and we will be OK. I suspect we would drop out of the 8 at some stage in the next 3 years but I don't see us being a bottom 4 club, all things being equal.

You are right that we would be losing a lot of experience over the coming years but the young kids will get some experience in the mean time. Its a trade off. Sure we will still have less games on the park each week but the kids will be gaining experience required, they will develop and hopefully one day with a premiership.

When Jarman and Robran retired and Vardy was moved on, everyone was saying how we are losing too much experience and will be a bottom 4 club. The following year we played off in a PF against Collingwood.

Someone will step up and we will be better for it. Who knows we might uncover another brownlow medallist or two in the progress. Two years ago no one would have thought James Bartel will be a Brownlow winner in 2007. I always rated the lad extremly highly but I thought while he will have numerous accolades to his name, Charlie wouldn't be one of them.

If we can uncover a couple of very good young midfielders in this draft (hopefully with some pace) we will be well on the way to bigger and better things.

[Vader]

No doubt the guns are still performing whether in the midfield or not. However, while they finished high in the B&F, there were some young guys who also finished top 10 so the reliance on these older guys is slowly decreasing while the reponsibility of younger guys is increasing. Its a steady progress. Guys like Knights, van Berlo and Thompson were top 10 in the B&F.

You ask the question who will step in to fill in for Thompson, Reilly, van Berlo and Knights as they step up to cover the fab 4?! Three years ago we were asking who will step up to cover for the top 4 in 203 years time and we found players to do it. Not the same class players mind you, and we will not replace Roo, McLeod, Goodwin et al with the like talent. Thats just a pipe dream from us supporters. We would all love it to happen but we will have to rely on depth rather than genuine talent. Prior to this year no one would think that James Bartel and Gary Ablett Jr were genuine Brownlow medal chances. They took another step to the elite status.

While the likes of Thompson, Reilly, van Berlo and Knights step up to take the reins from Roo, Goodwin, McLeod and Edwards, the likes of Douglas, Vince, Porplyzia and MacKay will step up and take the slack left by Thompson, Reilly, van Berlo and Knights so we still have 8 very good players to rotate through the midfield rather than 4 genuine guns with some solid players under-neath them.

If 3 years ago someone came on here and said that in 2 years time we will play off in PF with out having Roo play in the midfield we all woudl have said they need their head read ;)

The natural progress will happen. What we need to make sure is that we keep bringing in some genuine midfield talent into the club, develop that talent and give it a chance to play. The same way van Berlo and Knights emerged onto the scene, someone else will emerge to take thier spots.

We just need to make sure that our drafting is spot on, our development of those players is spot on and we will be OK. I suspect we would drop out of the 8 at some stage in the next 3 years but I don't see us being a bottom 4 club, all things being equal.

You are right that we would be losing a lot of experience over the coming years but the young kids will get some experience in the mean time. Its a trade off. Sure we will still have less games on the park each week but the kids will be gaining experience required, they will develop and hopefully one day with a premiership.

When Jarman and Robran retired and Vardy was moved on, everyone was saying how we are losing too much experience and will be a bottom 4 club. The following year we played off in a PF against Collingwood.

Someone will step up and we will be better for it. Who knows we might uncover another brownlow medallist or two in the progress. Two years ago no one would have thought James Bartel will be a Brownlow winner in 2007. I always rated the lad extremly highly but I thought while he will have numerous accolades to his name, Charlie wouldn't be one of them.

If we can uncover a couple of very good young midfielders in this draft (hopefully with some pace) we will be well on the way to bigger and better things.

I guess the hardest thing to predict is how well the kids will stand up when they don't have the elders to take the heat for them. Anything is possible - but I look at the teams with few experienced leaders, and they're all largely clustered down near the bottom of the ladder.

I just think that it is REALLY hard to lose that much experience in such a short space of time and not expect to see a dramatic drop off in performance on the field.

I think that we'll be fine in the longer term, once more of our kids get up over the 100 game mark. But in the 2010-2011 timeframe we'll be fielding the least experienced sides to take to the park in red, blue and gold since 1990 - and most of the players back then had a decade of SANFL experience to fall back upon.

I just see us going through a rough patch for a couple of years, 2010 & 2011 at which point our kids are still gaining experience but are for the most part not yet ready to take the competition by the scruff of the neck. Some of them might stand up earlier than expected - I certainly hope that I am proven wrong - but this is a crash I've seen coming for quite a while and nothing in this thread has dissuaded me from my view.

[relapse]

Some guy on SEN last night recons Adelaide will be bottom by a mile next year.

Wont happen I cant see WCE, Port or Adelaide ever winning the spoon. The home ground advantage is worth too much.

[Vader]

Wont happen I cant see WCE, Port or Adelaide ever winning the spoon. The home ground advantage is worth too much.

Have a look at what happened to WCE (and Freo) in 2001. Home ground advantage won't save you when your team hits rock bottom.

[maccas_no1]

Have a look at what happened to WCE (and Freo) in 2001. Home ground advantage won't save you when your team hits rock bottom.


I dont think the AFC have hit rock bottom though:thumbsu:

[Stiffy_18]

Have a look at what happened to WCE (and Freo) in 2001. Home ground advantage won't save you when your team hits rock bottom.
WC finished 3rd bottom and were tanking in one of the strongest draft of all time. They wanted and got 2 picks in the top 6. They used pick 3 on Judd and pick 6 on Sampi and it looks like both won't be on the list next year.

Freo are just a rabble. They are a laughing stock of the competition that are greatest bunch of under achievers in the last 15 odd years. Look at their list this season gone by and don't tell me that list wasn't good enough to make the 8?! They made the 8 only twice in their lifetime. Thats a losing culture especially since you consider the picks they had along the way. The only thing bringing some respect to Freo is Matthew Pavlich.

WC, Port and Adelaide are clubs that are just too well run to be regular cellar-dwellers like Freo.

[Vader]

WC finished 3rd bottom and were tanking in one of the strongest draft of all time. They wanted and got 2 picks in the top 6. They used pick 3 on Judd and pick 6 on Sampi and it looks like both won't be on the list next year.

Freo are just a rabble. They are a laughing stock of the competition that are greatest bunch of under achievers in the last 15 odd years. Look at their list this season gone by and don't tell me that list wasn't good enough to make the 8?! They made the 8 only twice in their lifetime. Thats a losing culture especially since you consider the picks they had along the way. The only thing bringing some respect to Freo is Matthew Pavlich.

WC, Port and Adelaide are clubs that are just too well run to be regular cellar-dwellers like Freo.

I'm not ever going to, nor have I ever, compared us with Fremantle. I agree with your sad and sorry assessment of this joke of a Football Club.

However, West Coast are a proud and mighty football club with a tradition as strong as our own. The fact of the matter is that they DID finish 3rd last that year, with only 5 wins - 4 of which came against the teams which finished 15th & 16th.

You can suggest that they were tanking, and maybe they were, but the fact of the matter is that they were in a position to tank because they had hit rock bottom. The last of their premiership heroes were on the way out (as are ours), and the replacements that they had recruited in the period since their flags had proven to be inadequate (as have ours). The fact is that they won only 2 of a possible 10 games against non-WA sides that year. The Subiaco home ground advantage is even greater than Football Park's, yet this clearly was not enough to save them from some extremely embarassing results.

I don't think we will finish last. I DO, however, think that a bottom 4 finish is likely during the 2010-11 period. I hope I am proven wrong.

[James_37]

I don't think we will finish last. I DO, however, think that a bottom 4 finish is likely during the 2010-11 period. I hope I am proven wrong.

Sorry mate, but 2010-2011 will not be our problem years, whilst we will be losing a lot of experience, I think the club will try and make it as gradual as possible, 4 or 5 in the mold of Massie, Doughty, Shirley, Biglands, Welsh etc will be released as Perrie, Torney and Bode were this year.

During the next 2 years all these younger players who have begun to step up, will enjoy developing under the leadership of guns such as Mcleod, Goodwin, Edwards and Basset and by 2010, these young guns should have taken over, Rutten, Thompson, Reilly, Bock, van Berlo and Porplyzia will be as much a part of the leadership group as the above 4, just as in 97 after the departures of your Mcdermotts, Mcguiness's, Jarmans as the likes of Bickley, Smart, Hart, Ricciuto, Mcleod and Rehn were there to take over.

Hopefully by then the likes of Tippet, Sellar, Walker and maybe still Gill will have provided us with our best forward line since the Modra, Robran, Jarman, Vardy and Bond era (funnily enough that was 97-98).

The worst the Crows can expect under NC is to drop out of the 8, no team of his will ever not be competitive and have a shot, perhaps it may be minor, but have a shot with 2-3 weeks to go before the finals.

[Vader]

Sorry mate, but 2010-2011 will not be our problem years, whilst we will be losing a lot of experience, I think the club will try and make it as gradual as possible, 4 or 5 in the mold of Massie, Doughty, Shirley, Biglands, Welsh etc will be released as Perrie, Torney and Bode were this year.

There will be a big difference between what we have seen in the past, and what we will experience in the future.

The reason for this is that from now on we will be losing players who genuine members of our best-22, not fringe/depth players. And we will need to be replacing about 5-6 of them per year, not 2-3 per year as we have done in the recent past.

At present our team has the following:
250+ games: 2 (Edwards & McLeod)
200-249: 1 (Goodwin)
150-199: 3 (Burton, Bassett, Welsh)
100-149: 7 (Biglands, Doughty, Johncock, Massie, McGregor, Shirley, Thompson)

In 2010, it will look like this (assuming no injuries, 22 games per season):
250+: 0
200+: 0
150-199: 1 (Johncock)
100-149: 5 (Bock, Hentschel, Reilly, Rutten, Thompson) * Stevens on 98, VB 97

Even the most experienced of Craig's crusher recruits (VB & Knights) will still be short of the century mark.

The teams we field during this period will be incredibly young - and subject to the same physicality which we now dish out to other sides (notably Port Adelaide, Footscray, Hawthorn and Richmond). The oldest player in the team will be Scott Stevens, with half the team aged under 22.

They will also be incredibly inexperienced - 10 players with less than 50 games experience will be the norm, not the exception. We are used to fielding sides where the majority of players have 100+ games, and where only 3-5 would be classified as rookies. This situation will be turned almost on its ear in two years time.

In summary, I think you are seriously underestimating the turnover which is about to occur on Adelaide's list. Equally, you are seriously underestimating just how badly this will impact on their on-field performances.

During the next 2 years all these younger players who have begun to step up, will enjoy developing under the leadership of guns such as Mcleod, Goodwin, Edwards and Basset and by 2010, these young guns should have taken over, Rutten, Thompson, Reilly, Bock, van Berlo and Porplyzia will be as much a part of the leadership group as the above 4, just as in 97 after the departures of your Mcdermotts, Mcguiness's, Jarmans as the likes of Bickley, Smart, Hart, Ricciuto, Mcleod and Rehn were there to take over.

The problem with this comparison is that there will be no senior stars who are around to carry them from 2010 onwards. In 1997 we had Roo who was 24, Smart in his mid-late 20s, and so forth. Which of our current 25yo+ generation will still be around to provide the leadership?

Hopefully by then the likes of Tippet, Sellar, Walker and maybe still Gill will have provided us with our best forward line since the Modra, Robran, Jarman, Vardy and Bond era (funnily enough that was 97-98).

Ironically, this is likely to be our youngest division - and yet the one with the greatest scope for improvement during this time. It is a LOT to ask the likes of Tippett, Sellar and Walker to be providing a first grade forward line in 2 years, bearing in mind that none of them have yet to play a senior game. Yet for all that, they are our great white hope - and knowing how poor our forward line has been for the last decade, things can only get better!

The worst the Crows can expect under NC is to drop out of the 8, no team of his will ever not be competitive and have a shot, perhaps it may be minor, but have a shot with 2-3 weeks to go before the finals.

I hope you are right, I really do. I'm almost worried that I'm beginning to sound like maccas_no_1, with his Chicken Little posts at the beginning of this year ("the sky is falling").

Maybe I'm being pessimistic, maybe I'm less optimistic than others on this board, I prefer to call myself a realist.

In my opinion, Adelaide have had this coming for a long time. We've held onto players who weren't good enough (the backboner group) for far too long. Now we're faced with the situation where the backboners and the elite leadership group are all being phased out together - leaving little other than our current brigade of crushers.

Adelaide won't stay down for 5-6 years like Carlton have. They have too much pride for that. I do think we'll be down in the bottom 4 (13th-14th) for 2 years, then we will bounce back again. I'm hoping we'll win enough games to keep our record intact, of being one of the few clubs to have never qualified for a priority draft selection.

[- PC -]

Vader, the cup is always half full :thumbsu:


Or if your an engineer it wasnt designed properly :D

[fightingdreamer88]

People also forget we have Nick Gill.

Top 4 konfirm'd.

[Vader]

Vader, the cup is always half full :thumbsu:


Or if your an engineer it wasnt designed properly :D

Yep, twice as big as it needs to be.

[Wayne's-World]

It's true that the likes of Edwards, Goodwin and Macca are spending less time in the middle. It's also true that Roo had virtually no impact on season 2007 whatsoever.

However, it is also true that these players finished 1st, 2nd and 4th in the AFC Club Champion award. It is thus very difficult to argue that they are not still playing an extremely important role within the team, even if they weren't spending as much time in the midfield.

We'll never have another Goodwin, McLeod, Ricciuto, Edwards combination. Instead we'll have a Thompson, Knights, Van Berlo, Reilly combination in the centre. That's not a bad thing. The question then becomes who steps up to take the shoes of Thommo, Knighter, VB and Radar when they have stepped up to take the place of the veterans?
Between now an 2010, we will be losing the following players:
Andrew McLeod, Simon Goodwin, Tyson Edwards, Nathan Bassett, Rhett Biglands, Brett Burton, Scott Welsh, Michael Doughty, Kris Massie, Robert Shirley and Ken McGregor.

Of those, only Doughty and Massie would be considered not to be members of our best 22. Collectively, it's 1903 games of experience (1665 if you discount Massie & Doughty). Their replacements as named (Vince, Douglas & MacKay) have a grand total of 26 games between them. That's a LOT of experience we'll be losing.

On the positive side, our forward line prospects have NEVER looked this good since Modra, Robran and Jarman departed. However, not one of those kids have proven anything to date - Sellar, Walker & Tippett have played a grand total of 0 AFL games. Hentschel has 61 to his credit, but who knows if he will be the same after his horrendous knee injury?

The biggest question mark of all hangs over our ruck division. Griffin & Maric have looked OK so far, but then again little has been expected of them and they've had Hudson to guide them and carry the bulk of the burden. We will learn a LOT about the future now that these guys have to do all the work themselves in 2008.
Interesting assessment ......not sure I agree completely

IMO Adelaide have always been good list managers ......some of our unexpected first round failures have certainly set us back .....Angwin would have been in the experienced category now, Watts set us back a bit as well as well as the BIG one in Gibbs which in hindsight now has made a huge difference to our recruiting strategy.

I disagree completely that we'll never have another Goodwin, McLeod, Ricciuto, Edwards combination .......NEVER is a huge statement and good players are always replaced ....generally by players you least expected.

Macleod, Goodwin and Edwards were all unheralded players coming into the game.

But I'd suggest that Knight & Van Berlo have started their careers off better than most, other than Johncock.

IMO opinion our list has a spread of genuine talent ....talent that hasn't yet produced results on the ground but I'd suggest its eveness is the best in the clubs history.

We do lack however those few genuine stars coming through .....that's probably what starts the doomsdayers off.

As I said Gibbs would have made a huge difference.

Griffin and Maric are as good as any ruckmen we have had ....."potentally" .....you can't yet compare them to Rehn as they have no runs on the board.

Sellar & Tippett are genuine players of the future.

We get a top 10 midfielder this draft, Vince will be a player ....so really a couple of good drafts, and a bit of luck and your only ever a couple of seasons away.

[FlyingCrow]

Thats the main perceived problem... None of our young kids are stars, yet most, if not all, can hold their own in AFL. This is why they are underestimated by those that dont see the Crows week in week out. It is also the reason players like Knights, Johncock, Rutten, Van Berlo, Thompson never got a Rising Star nomination. They all fit in the team, hold their possie well rarely get beaten, BUT dont stand out.

[Asgardian]

Macleod, Goodwin and Edwards were all unheralded players coming into the game.

Get off the grass

McLeod came into the AFL as a white hot prospect.

It wasn't his fault that Neesham was a dope

[Markthirtytwo]

Get off the grass

McLeod came into the AFL as a white hot prospect.

It wasn't his fault that Neesham was a dope

I think the word possible is missing in this statement.

Just have to find where to put it. :p

[Vader]

OK, when I said that they would never be Edwards, Roo, Macca, Goodwin, I didn't mean that they wouldn't be as good as them. I simply meant that they wouldn't BE them. They will be their own men, playing to their own strengths and weaknesses, just as their predecessors have before them.

People look at the generational change at the end of 96 (when Blight took over) and say it's the same thing again. But it's not. At the end of 96, Blight delisted three players - McDermott, A Jarman, T McGuinness. We're looking at losing 11 players. That's the difference.

At present, the players on our list have played an average of 78 games each, 91 if you exclude those who have yet to debut.

In 2010, discounting the effect of trades, that figure will be 55 games per player (84 post debut) - probably less, as this calculation assumes that none of the 11 departees play a single game in the next 2 years (patently wrong - but it maximises the games played by the players who will be remaining on the list).

To be honest, I'm not that concerned about the midfield. We have replacements for the big-4 in place and the transition plans appear to be in place.

My concerns are more with the forward line - which will be almost completely unrecognisable in 2 years time. Bode & Perrie are already gone. Welsh, Burton, Edwards and McGregor will all be gone as well, as will Biglands (an occasional forward). Gill may well have been replaced in the line-up as well (almost certain if his kicking fails to improve). In their place will be Hentschel, Tippett, Tex and Sellar. Of these, 3 have never played a senior game and the other is returning from a horrendous knee injury and is thus almost an unknown quantity once again.

These guys will all still be very inexperienced and with inexperience comes inconsistency. In the long run they will probably prove to be far better players than the mob they're replacing (it would be hard not to be), however, their careers will still be in their infancy in 2010.

I'm not saying that this will be a disaster. I don't think we'll become a basket case (like Carlton have been for the past 6 years and Freo have been ever since inception). I just think we'll have 2 bad years in 2010 & 2011.

[Wayne's-World]

Get off the grass

McLeod came into the AFL as a white hot prospect.

It wasn't his fault that Neesham was a dope
Hindsights a wonderful thing ....but think you find you would have been the only one saying he was a white hot prospect.

If I recall he was overweight, not particularly fast but wonderfully skilled

[Wayne's-World]

OK, when I said that they would never be Edwards, Roo, Macca, Goodwin, I didn't mean that they wouldn't be as good as them. I simply meant that they wouldn't BE them. They will be their own men, playing to their own strengths and weaknesses, just as their predecessors have before them.

My concerns are more with the forward line - which will be almost completely unrecognisable in 2 years time. Bode & Perrie are already gone. Welsh, Burton, Edwards and McGregor will all be gone as well, as will Biglands (an occasional forward). Gill may well have been replaced in the line-up as well (almost certain if his kicking fails to improve). In their place will be Hentschel, Tippett, Tex and Sellar. Of these, 3 have never played a senior game and the other is returning from a horrendous knee injury and is thus almost an unknown quantity once again.

These guys will all still be very inexperienced and with inexperience comes inconsistency. In the long run they will probably prove to be far better players than the mob they're replacing (it would be hard not to be), however, their careers will still be in their infancy in 2010.

I'm not saying that this will be a disaster. I don't think we'll become a basket case (like Carlton have been for the past 6 years and Freo have been ever since inception). I just think we'll have 2 bad years in 2010 & 2011.

some interesting points:

1. Firstly I can now understand that being in Canberra you have classic political speak ;)

2. I think with Hentschel, Tippett, Tex and Sellar ....plus Griffin we have a broader range of talent than ever .....we do however always remember Modra and Jarman as individual matchwinning stars.

I do agree that young players bring inconsistency. That's why I have never supported youth policies in clubs .....bring young players into winning cultures to be mentored.

3. But I just acnnot agree that 2010 & 2011 will be bad years. Far from it IMO we'll be challenging ....the club has been preparing for the changeover for 3 years.

It is selectively replacing older players early (Hart and Torney) and IMO the club is managing the transition perfectly.

We'll be contenders for the 8 this season .....however with a younger list a long run of injuries will see us fall down to the lower reaches of the ladder.

2008 & 2009 IMO are potentially ordinary years but thereafter we'll be back in the game :thumbsu:

[Asgardian]

Hindsights a wonderful thing ....but think you find you would have been the only one saying he was a white hot prospect.

If I recall he was overweight, not particularly fast but wonderfully skilled

After the above comments I can only conclude that you didn't watch much of the Port Magpies 1994 season

[- PC -]

After the above comments I can only conclude that you didn't watch much of the Port Magpies 1994 season

Obviously

[Stiffy_18]

Hindsights a wonderful thing ....but think you find you would have been the only one saying he was a white hot prospect.

If I recall he was overweight, not particularly fast but wonderfully skilled
WOW dude! Hold your horses!

McLeod was a GUN young prospect who was rated best young player in the country at that stage. If he wasn't on Freo's initial list with all the concessions many thought he was a first pick in the draft.

I think you migh thave him confused with someone else.

[Macca19]

Hindsights a wonderful thing ....but think you find you would have been the only one saying he was a white hot prospect.

If I recall he was overweight, not particularly fast but wonderfully skilled

Nah, youve got this one wrong WW.

He went from U17s to league in half a season. In his debut game against Glenelg at Glenelg Oval he had something like 30 touches and 4 goals. From memory he kicked 28 goals in half a year in his debut year. I remember doing somersaults when I heard he was going to Adelaide. The kid was an absolute monty to go at the very least top 3 in the draft.

http://i11.tinypic.com/4qx6oag.jpg

[Wayne's-World]

WOW dude! Hold your horses!

McLeod was a GUN young prospect who was rated best young player in the country at that stage. If he wasn't on Freo's initial list with all the concessions many thought he was a first pick in the draft.

I think you migh thave him confused with someone else.

My :o:o

Sorry also Macca19 .......wasn't watching a lot of footy ATS and my thoughts were on his first couple of Crows games

[Asgardian]

Apology accepted :rolleyes:

[FlyingCrow]

Macca was a gun at the Magpies. When we got him I was stoked. I atually thought the AFL team from Port would try something to keep him. Hide him for two seasons. That was my thoughts in 94.

[Kane McGoodwin]

Apology accepted :rolleyes:
Then why the :rolleyes: You can be a tosser sometimes.

Remember this is our board, so you are on our terms, which means respecting AFC & it's supporters.

[Vader]

some interesting points:

1. Firstly I can now understand that being in Canberra you have classic political speak ;)

:D:p

2. I think with Hentschel, Tippett, Tex and Sellar ....plus Griffin we have a broader range of talent than ever .....we do however always remember Modra and Jarman as individual matchwinning stars.

I do agree that young players bring inconsistency. That's why I have never supported youth policies in clubs .....bring young players into winning cultures to be mentored.

Modra and Jarman were well established as superstars before 1997 & 1998. Modra had his breakout year in 1993. Jarman was a SANFL superstar for North Adelaide before going on to become an AFL superstar with Hawthorn and then Adelaide.

I am excited by all the young tall forwards on our list at present. The problem is that none of them have really shown anything yet:
Sellar - Was disappointing when played in the Glenelg seniors and spent the latter half of the year in the magoos. Granted, he appeared to be carrying an injury - a decent pre-season will do him the world of good.
Tippett - Showed little when played as a key forward for Westies, but was good when played in the ruck. To be fair, the ball was so rarely found in West's forward line that a judgement on his ability to play there is difficult to make;). Missed the latter half of the year with a shoulder injury. Highly rated by the Crows management, but still yet to put any runs on the board.
Tex - Ripped the Broken Hill League to shreds and did well when playing for NSW in the U/18s. Hasn't even played an SANFL game yet, let alone AFL.
3. But I just acnnot agree that 2010 & 2011 will be bad years. Far from it IMO we'll be challenging ....the club has been preparing for the changeover for 3 years.
Hentschel - Was having a breakout year in 2006, until it all came crashing down on Black Sunday. Will he ever be able to return to that level again? Who knows? Only time will tell.
Griffin - Kicked a couple of quick goals in a NAB Cup game when moved forward, causing a mismatch (his opponent was a midget) until Choco shuffled the deck chairs around a bit. Hasn't really done a lot as a Key Forward since then, but the reputation has been made. Too skinny to be a key forward (just as he's too skinny to be a ruckman), won't be a great success at anything until he puts on some more weight - though he does have significant potential which could be fulfilled IF he does stack on some muscle.

The point is that, Hentschel (and Griffin - who is primarily a ruckman anyway) aside, none of these kids will have 50 games behind them by 2010 and yet they will BE the forward line. Actually, the first three will be lucky to have 30 games each.

[QUOTE=Wayne's-World;9385025]It is selectively replacing older players early (Hart and Torney) and IMO the club is managing the transition perfectly.

They've done well so far, no argument there.

However, most of the players replaced so far (Torney being the notable exception) were fringe/depth players, not regular members of our best 22. For this reason, their departures have not left a big hole in the side. The players departing in 2008 & 2009 make up HALF of the best 22. There's a world of difference.

We've really only been replacing 1-2 senior players per year, with 1-2 of our delistings coming from the younger brigade (Obst last year, Pfeiffer & Hinge this year). That's going to change in the next couple of years, as we lose 5-6 senior players each year.

I just can't see how our team can manage such a major transition without having a drop-off in results. None of the other teams have done it, why do we think we are so much better than the rest of the pack?

I do give them credit for managing the transition as smoothly as possible. It's been coming for a long time, and is largely a product of the lousy drafting & list development under Adolph Ayers. Believe me when I say that I'm not trying to be critical of the current management as they seek to negotiate their way through a difficult time.

We'll be contenders for the 8 this season .....however with a younger list a long run of injuries will see us fall down to the lower reaches of the ladder.

:thumbsu:

2008 & 2009 IMO are potentially ordinary years but thereafter we'll be back in the game :thumbsu:

I guess time will tell.

[Gets!]

We will win the flag next year.

[Asgardian]

Then why the :rolleyes: You can be a tosser sometimes.

Remember this is our board, so you are on our terms, which means respecting AFC & it's supporters.

He referred to Stiffy & Macca, but not me, it amused me.

[Asgardian]

To be, or not to be: that is the question:
Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune,
Or to take arms against a sea of troubles,
And by opposing end them? To die: to sleep;

Thank you Mr Shakespeare

[fightingdreamer88]

We will win the flag next year.

Hell yes.

[Crow-mo]

There will be a big difference between what we have seen in the past, and what we will experience in the future.

The reason for this is that from now on we will be losing players who genuine members of our best-22, not fringe/depth players. And we will need to be replacing about 5-6 of them per year, not 2-3 per year as we have done in the recent past.



an excellent point. top notch :thumbsu:


I hope you are right, I really do. I'm almost worried that I'm beginning to sound like maccas_no_1, with his Chicken Little posts at the beginning of this year ("the sky is falling").

but at least you have put some thought into it. ;)

[Crow-mo]

Get off the grass

McLeod came into the AFL as a white hot prospect.

It wasn't his fault that Neesham was a dope

true. McLeod was the no.1 prospect in the country. He was a pre-draft selection, and aside from a technicality was the true no.1 pick in teh first superdraft. i.e. 1994

[Crow-mo]

Hindsights a wonderful thing ....but think you find you would have been the only one saying he was a white hot prospect.

If I recall he was overweight, not particularly fast but wonderfully skilled

no. you're just wrong here. flat out wrong.

move on.

[Porps_is_HOT_loz]

People are just jelous!
2008 is the year 4 the Crows and everyone noes it ;)

[bLuEbOy1984]

everyone counting out the crows for 08 are foolish i think they will finish in the 5-8 position and potentially a dangerous team in the finals, that nobody would like to play

[Wayne's-World]

no. you're just wrong here. flat out wrong.

move on.

You have to remember to read peoples follow up posts on these subjects ;)

[fightingdreamer88]

My theory is Sonic the Hedgehog is going to be instrumental in Adelaide winning the flag next year. It's because Sonic loves us all, he doesn't judge, and the players know this and will feel loved. They won't care that Tails is gay, and they will be inspired by the old-skool brilliance that is Sonic the Hedgehog 3 & Knuckles for the Genesis. They'll do it for the floating island, they'll do it for the chaos emeralds, they'll-*shot*

Okay backing away from the cocaine for a moment, it's all about how much our youngsters step up. I'm talking about Douglas, Knights, VB, Vince, Tippett, MacKay, Maric, Griffin etc...imo there is enough talent in that group plus the others I've forgotten, to push hard for finals next season. Long term there is enough talent to build a top 4 nucleus imo, although the group isn't complete just yet (need that developing big forward and an injection of pace in the middle).

A top 6 finish is on the cards in my humble opinion, provided we get the expected improvement from the youth and continued strong contributions from the old guard.