Dandy_GO
17 Apr 2008, 04:16
My turn this week. Sorry about the slight delay, everybody.
Round 5
Adelaide vs Fremantle
Saturday, April 19
AAMI Stadium 2:40 PM
Forecast: Fine, Sunny, 27.
Last week:
Adelaide
Losing to the Hawks came as no shock to most Crows supporters, but few expected the margin to be quite so large, despite the relatively inexperienced team fielded. Hawthorn's pressure around the ground was first class and allowed them to dominate play, despite Adelaide, surprisingly, being on top in the ruck and clearance count. Lance Franklin was unstoppable up forward, whilst Clinton Young and Brent Guerra were allowed to pick up a ridiculous amount of the ball on the half back flank, allowing the Hawks to build up their attacks from defence effectively. While Adelaide did force their way back into the game at stages, generally Hawthorn worked a heck of a lot harder, and came out deserved 44 point victors.
Fremantle
Over the last few years, Fremantle have ruined any chance of me winning my work's footy pool. More so than any other team, they lose when they shouldn't. As such, they've earned a tag of being perennial under performers. Against Richmond, they did nothing to lose this tag. Despite not beating Freo at Subi since 2001, cellar-dwellers Richmond won by 64 points. Matthew Richardson started up the ground, but tormented the Dockers' defence running forward from the wing, whilst even the much criticised Richard Tambling stepped up to the plate with an impressive performance. Fremantle had far too many passengers, with only the reliable Matthew Pavlich and Peter Bell putting in strong performances. Much like Adelaide, Fremantle were beaten by a side that was clearly working a lot harder.
The missing:
Adelaide
Adelaide are still without first choice midfielders Chris Knights and Brent Reilly. Utility Kris Massie is still probably a week away, whilst inexperienced midfielder Bryce Campbell picked up an ankle injury against the Hawks, and is unlikely to play. Tall timber Nick Gill and Brad Moran are all still a fortnight away.
Fremantle
Fremantle could well be without match winner Des Headland, with important midfielder Heath Black ruled out at this stage. Paul Hasleby is out for the season. Michael Johnson is a strong chance to play, whilst defender Steven Dodd has been cleared to play by the match review panel.
The Ins and Outs
Adelaide
Adelaide are unlikely to make too many changes, mostly because the cupboards are bare. First year players Patrick “I'm not even living in Adelaide” Dangerfield and Jarrhan “Titch” Jacky were emergencies last week, showing just how little we have to choose from, and are a chance to debut this week. Ivan Maric has been showing strong form for the Port Adelaide Magpies, and is a big chance to replace Campbell.
Fremantle
Mark Harvey has suggested that Fremantle may well make 3 or 4 changes based on both form and injury. Experienced campaigners Matthew Carr and Shaun McManus are both chances to come in, along with a few youngsters, such as Garrick “born at the renaissance fair” Ibbotson. A few Dockers may find themselves playing WAFL next week thanks to poor form. Brett Peake and Scott Thornton loom as the most likely to sit this one out.
The key matchups/areas
Pavlich vs Rutten
One of the problems with having a quality CHB and a quality FB is choosing which one gets to stand the opposition's best forward. As we saw against Hawthorn, it is important to get these type of matchups right early on. Pavlich has ripped us apart before, most notably last season when he kicked 5, and in late 2005 when he almost won the game single-handedly with an 8 goal haul, 7 of which (from memory) were kicked in the last half. Whilst Pav is more inclined to play up the ground than many power forwards, making Bock the obvious choice, I'd prefer to see Rutten line up with him, as Bock's ability to run off his man is valuable asset made impossible against elite opposition.
Burton vs Dodd
The last time an Adelaide player copped a suspension, that I can recall at least, was when Burton punched Dodd. While Burton has the ability to kick a bag out of nowhere, he also has the ability to lose his cool when an opponent outplays him. Dodd is the type of player who has shown he can stay with Burton, and beat him. It will be interesting to see how the Birdman performs this week, and if he punches anyone.
Tarrant vs Bassett
Call me crazy, but I'm worried about Tarrant. The stage is set for him to have a BIG game after all the criticism he's copped. Bassett is a big chance to play on him, but is somewhat out of form after a limited pre season and a knock against Port. Would love to have Massie in the team for this matchup, but unfortunately he's still recovering.
Johncock vs Hayden
Last time the sides met, star back pocket Roger Hayden was thrown forward to stop Johncock's rebound. It turned out to be an excellent move, and worked perfectly. Will we see the same thing again this time around?
The midfields
Both sides are fielding weakened midfields. Fremantle are without stars Heath Black and Paul Hasleby, with Headland a chance not to play, whilst Adelaide are missing Knights and Reilly, and require Goodwin and Edwards elsewhere on the field. Thompson/Van Berlo/Porplyzia/Vince vs Bell/Palmer/Josh Carr/Crowley look to be reasonably evenly matched. Should be an exciting battle.
Sandilands/Warnock vs Griffin/Maric(I hope)/Tippett
Despite winning the majority of ruck contests against the Hawks, we all know that the ruck division is Adelaide's weakness. Sandilands cops a lot of flak for not doing enough around the ground and basically being a massive unco, but you can count on him to get first hands on the ball. Warnock is a handy youngster, who looks a likely type, but I'd back in the slightly more mature Griffin and Maric at this stage against him. Freo will be hoping that Sandilands can play a blinder against our relatively inexperienced combo, and help their weakened midfield get first use of the ball, whilst Adelaide will be hoping that Griffin in particular can negate Sandilands' ability to be the size of a giraffe.
Where's Tippett?
Many Adelaide fans have been crying out for the inclusion of ruckman Ivan Maric to allow exciting youngster Kurt Tippett to play a full game up forward. With big Ivan dominating in the SANFL last week, could this be the right time to try it? Kurt looms as a handy target for Adelaide's midfielders, and, with his height and ability to take a pack mark, could well be a nightmare matchup for the Fremantle defence.
Form Guide
Freo have a surprisingly good record against Adelaide in recent times mostly thanks to them taking home the points both times the sides met last year. Unfortunately for Adelaide, the circumstances for the latter of the two games seems similar to those going into Saturday's clash. The week before, Fremantle had lost to the Kangaroos at Subiaco in a performance that brought them much criticism. As they have developed a habit of doing, The Dockers bounced back. They ended up comprehensively outplaying Adelaide at AAMI, with Pavlich and Bell amongst the best. In the our other clash last year, Fremantle won by a point, which really sucked balls from my point of view.
Last 5
2007 R16 Adelaide 3.7 6.8 12.8 15.11 (101) lost to Fremantle 5.0 10.2 16.2 20.6 (126) AAMI Stadium
2007 R5 Fremantle 2.3 3.7 5.13 7.16 (58) dftd Adelaide 3.0 4.2 6.5 8.9 (57) Subiaco
2006 QF Adelaide 1.3 3.8 5.12 10.16 (76) dftd Fremantle 4.2 5.2 7.4 7.4 (46) AAMI Stadium
2006 R19 Adelaide 2.3 5.10 10.14 10.20 (80) lost to Fremantle 3.6 8.10 10.11 13.17 (95) AAMI Stadium
2006 R4 Fremantle 1.1 3.3 6.3 9.5 (59) lost to Adelaide 3.3 7.7 8.11 9.16 (70) Subiaco
Outcome
It basically all depends on which Fremantle turns up. Both sides suffered losses last round, following physical encounters in rivalry round, but should hopefully be fresh and ready to go by Saturday, and eager to get back into winning form. Whilst Fremantle have good form over Adelaide over the last couple of seasons, Adelaide have probably been in superior form so far this season. Fremantle, however, have something to prove, after a weeks worth of criticism, drawn from the Richmond loss. I fully expect to see a VERY different Fremantle on Saturday. Adelaide will be hoping that their forwardline can provide more pressure than last week, preventing Fremantle from building attacks from defence, whilst Fremantle will be hoping to see more pressure on the half back line, in order to stop Goodwin and Burton from having too much of an influence on the game. I'm going to tip Adelaide, however, thanks to the home ground advantage, by 24 points.
http://img384.imageshack.us/img384/6031/tippettht0.gif
Kurt Tippett marks despite the best attempts of 3 Fremantle defenders (artists impression)
Round 5
Adelaide vs Fremantle
Saturday, April 19
AAMI Stadium 2:40 PM
Forecast: Fine, Sunny, 27.
Last week:
Adelaide
Losing to the Hawks came as no shock to most Crows supporters, but few expected the margin to be quite so large, despite the relatively inexperienced team fielded. Hawthorn's pressure around the ground was first class and allowed them to dominate play, despite Adelaide, surprisingly, being on top in the ruck and clearance count. Lance Franklin was unstoppable up forward, whilst Clinton Young and Brent Guerra were allowed to pick up a ridiculous amount of the ball on the half back flank, allowing the Hawks to build up their attacks from defence effectively. While Adelaide did force their way back into the game at stages, generally Hawthorn worked a heck of a lot harder, and came out deserved 44 point victors.
Fremantle
Over the last few years, Fremantle have ruined any chance of me winning my work's footy pool. More so than any other team, they lose when they shouldn't. As such, they've earned a tag of being perennial under performers. Against Richmond, they did nothing to lose this tag. Despite not beating Freo at Subi since 2001, cellar-dwellers Richmond won by 64 points. Matthew Richardson started up the ground, but tormented the Dockers' defence running forward from the wing, whilst even the much criticised Richard Tambling stepped up to the plate with an impressive performance. Fremantle had far too many passengers, with only the reliable Matthew Pavlich and Peter Bell putting in strong performances. Much like Adelaide, Fremantle were beaten by a side that was clearly working a lot harder.
The missing:
Adelaide
Adelaide are still without first choice midfielders Chris Knights and Brent Reilly. Utility Kris Massie is still probably a week away, whilst inexperienced midfielder Bryce Campbell picked up an ankle injury against the Hawks, and is unlikely to play. Tall timber Nick Gill and Brad Moran are all still a fortnight away.
Fremantle
Fremantle could well be without match winner Des Headland, with important midfielder Heath Black ruled out at this stage. Paul Hasleby is out for the season. Michael Johnson is a strong chance to play, whilst defender Steven Dodd has been cleared to play by the match review panel.
The Ins and Outs
Adelaide
Adelaide are unlikely to make too many changes, mostly because the cupboards are bare. First year players Patrick “I'm not even living in Adelaide” Dangerfield and Jarrhan “Titch” Jacky were emergencies last week, showing just how little we have to choose from, and are a chance to debut this week. Ivan Maric has been showing strong form for the Port Adelaide Magpies, and is a big chance to replace Campbell.
Fremantle
Mark Harvey has suggested that Fremantle may well make 3 or 4 changes based on both form and injury. Experienced campaigners Matthew Carr and Shaun McManus are both chances to come in, along with a few youngsters, such as Garrick “born at the renaissance fair” Ibbotson. A few Dockers may find themselves playing WAFL next week thanks to poor form. Brett Peake and Scott Thornton loom as the most likely to sit this one out.
The key matchups/areas
Pavlich vs Rutten
One of the problems with having a quality CHB and a quality FB is choosing which one gets to stand the opposition's best forward. As we saw against Hawthorn, it is important to get these type of matchups right early on. Pavlich has ripped us apart before, most notably last season when he kicked 5, and in late 2005 when he almost won the game single-handedly with an 8 goal haul, 7 of which (from memory) were kicked in the last half. Whilst Pav is more inclined to play up the ground than many power forwards, making Bock the obvious choice, I'd prefer to see Rutten line up with him, as Bock's ability to run off his man is valuable asset made impossible against elite opposition.
Burton vs Dodd
The last time an Adelaide player copped a suspension, that I can recall at least, was when Burton punched Dodd. While Burton has the ability to kick a bag out of nowhere, he also has the ability to lose his cool when an opponent outplays him. Dodd is the type of player who has shown he can stay with Burton, and beat him. It will be interesting to see how the Birdman performs this week, and if he punches anyone.
Tarrant vs Bassett
Call me crazy, but I'm worried about Tarrant. The stage is set for him to have a BIG game after all the criticism he's copped. Bassett is a big chance to play on him, but is somewhat out of form after a limited pre season and a knock against Port. Would love to have Massie in the team for this matchup, but unfortunately he's still recovering.
Johncock vs Hayden
Last time the sides met, star back pocket Roger Hayden was thrown forward to stop Johncock's rebound. It turned out to be an excellent move, and worked perfectly. Will we see the same thing again this time around?
The midfields
Both sides are fielding weakened midfields. Fremantle are without stars Heath Black and Paul Hasleby, with Headland a chance not to play, whilst Adelaide are missing Knights and Reilly, and require Goodwin and Edwards elsewhere on the field. Thompson/Van Berlo/Porplyzia/Vince vs Bell/Palmer/Josh Carr/Crowley look to be reasonably evenly matched. Should be an exciting battle.
Sandilands/Warnock vs Griffin/Maric(I hope)/Tippett
Despite winning the majority of ruck contests against the Hawks, we all know that the ruck division is Adelaide's weakness. Sandilands cops a lot of flak for not doing enough around the ground and basically being a massive unco, but you can count on him to get first hands on the ball. Warnock is a handy youngster, who looks a likely type, but I'd back in the slightly more mature Griffin and Maric at this stage against him. Freo will be hoping that Sandilands can play a blinder against our relatively inexperienced combo, and help their weakened midfield get first use of the ball, whilst Adelaide will be hoping that Griffin in particular can negate Sandilands' ability to be the size of a giraffe.
Where's Tippett?
Many Adelaide fans have been crying out for the inclusion of ruckman Ivan Maric to allow exciting youngster Kurt Tippett to play a full game up forward. With big Ivan dominating in the SANFL last week, could this be the right time to try it? Kurt looms as a handy target for Adelaide's midfielders, and, with his height and ability to take a pack mark, could well be a nightmare matchup for the Fremantle defence.
Form Guide
Freo have a surprisingly good record against Adelaide in recent times mostly thanks to them taking home the points both times the sides met last year. Unfortunately for Adelaide, the circumstances for the latter of the two games seems similar to those going into Saturday's clash. The week before, Fremantle had lost to the Kangaroos at Subiaco in a performance that brought them much criticism. As they have developed a habit of doing, The Dockers bounced back. They ended up comprehensively outplaying Adelaide at AAMI, with Pavlich and Bell amongst the best. In the our other clash last year, Fremantle won by a point, which really sucked balls from my point of view.
Last 5
2007 R16 Adelaide 3.7 6.8 12.8 15.11 (101) lost to Fremantle 5.0 10.2 16.2 20.6 (126) AAMI Stadium
2007 R5 Fremantle 2.3 3.7 5.13 7.16 (58) dftd Adelaide 3.0 4.2 6.5 8.9 (57) Subiaco
2006 QF Adelaide 1.3 3.8 5.12 10.16 (76) dftd Fremantle 4.2 5.2 7.4 7.4 (46) AAMI Stadium
2006 R19 Adelaide 2.3 5.10 10.14 10.20 (80) lost to Fremantle 3.6 8.10 10.11 13.17 (95) AAMI Stadium
2006 R4 Fremantle 1.1 3.3 6.3 9.5 (59) lost to Adelaide 3.3 7.7 8.11 9.16 (70) Subiaco
Outcome
It basically all depends on which Fremantle turns up. Both sides suffered losses last round, following physical encounters in rivalry round, but should hopefully be fresh and ready to go by Saturday, and eager to get back into winning form. Whilst Fremantle have good form over Adelaide over the last couple of seasons, Adelaide have probably been in superior form so far this season. Fremantle, however, have something to prove, after a weeks worth of criticism, drawn from the Richmond loss. I fully expect to see a VERY different Fremantle on Saturday. Adelaide will be hoping that their forwardline can provide more pressure than last week, preventing Fremantle from building attacks from defence, whilst Fremantle will be hoping to see more pressure on the half back line, in order to stop Goodwin and Burton from having too much of an influence on the game. I'm going to tip Adelaide, however, thanks to the home ground advantage, by 24 points.
http://img384.imageshack.us/img384/6031/tippettht0.gif
Kurt Tippett marks despite the best attempts of 3 Fremantle defenders (artists impression)