Head2Head Week 6: Hawthorn (The Messenger) vs Richmond (Realistic Tiger)

[philhawk]

Well, this week sees the Tigers come up against the high-flying Hawks. My thanks to both Realistic Tiger and The Messenger for both providing great insights.

The Messenger's insight will be posted first, with RT to post his afterwards.

[philhawk]

Hawthorn Perspective

Got it finished early Phil, hope it's not to long the ideas just kept flowing. Will need to send it to you in 3 chunks.

Hawks vs Tigers

The Hawks have had the wood over the Tigers in recent years winning there last 2 meetings in Round 15 2007 by 53 points and Round 12 2006 by 41 points. Both clubs have treaded similar paths since 2004 when the Hawks finished 15th and the Tiges 16th at the end of that year. Both have used the term rebuilding quite frequently since that time and both would feel they are entering a period of success in the not to distant future. Although they attacked there rebuild differently both clubs have a swag of up and coming youngsters they hope will lead them into the future.

Form Line

Hawks are ticking along very nicely, 5-0 after 5 and sitting only behind the all conquering Cats in 2008. They have had some great wins both home and on the road and would be full of confidence entering this contest.

The Tiges are 2-2-1 after 5 having sampled a little of everything this year. Good wins over the Blues in Round 1 and Freo on the road in Round 4 shows they do know how to win and they should have added to that last week against they Dogs.

Changes

I can’t see the Hawks making any changes this week to the side that roled a strong Lions outfit last week. McGlynn, Boyle, Tuck, Murphy and Stokes will be looked at by the match committee but I don’t see any of them forcing there way into the team. With Dew ready for next week Box Hill will be licking there lips because these guys will need to play somewhere.

The Tiges will look at Bowden, Jackson, Pettifer and Tivendale but like the Hawks I can’t see them making to many changes to there line up. Maybe Jackson will come in for Edwards to do a job on one of the stars in the Hawks midfield but I find this unlikely as Edwards provides a spark in the Tiges forward half.

Key Players

Hawthorn

Lance Franklin – Of course he is a key player, leading goal scorer in the comp and proving a very hard match up for all clubs, if Buddy is on the Hawks will win. If Buddy is not on the Hawks should still win but I think we would see a much closer contest.

Trent Croad – Was a little scratchy in his first hit out back from a wrist injury last week but will be much better for the run. The Hawks defence looks so much better with Croad playing in the key defensive post.

Chance Bateman – Is in career best form and could well be leading the Brownlow count at this stage of the year. Didn’t get as much of the footy last week but when he does he provides the Hawks with so much run and carry. The best gut runner at the Hawks.

Richmond

Will Thursfield – This kid will be having a few sleepless nights I would imagine, will be waking up in a cold sweat screaming after having nightmares about Buddy. The kid busts his ar$e every week for the Tiges and he will need to use all his tricks this week.

Brett Deledio – The Tigers touch of class whether forward, mid or back. He can run, he can kick and he can mark but can he get enough of the pill to really hurt the Hawks. If Lids gets over 20 touches this week he could cause some real headaches for Clarko.

Nathan Foley – The Hawks strength is there ability to win clearances through Mitch, Hodge, Lewis and Sewell but I would rate Foley as the number 2 clearance man in the comp behind only Mitch. Will be crucial to the Tigers chances.

Match ups

Forwards

Buddy vs Thursfield – The poor bugger will have his hands full but will throw everything he has at Buddy. Will need a chop out as often as possible, will the Tigers play Bowden to be the 3rd man up or can Moore do this job for them.

Roughie vs Polak – Tossed and turned on this one, Polak or Schulz, went with Polak he’s stronger in the air and was not great forward last week so may throw him back to get some confidence. Roughy looks ready to tear a game apart, just needs to hold his marks.

Willo vs King – I think this is the hardest match up for the Tiges down back, may be to strong in the air for King but will be too quick for Moore. If King does get him he will try to run off Willo and provide lots of run from the back half, Willo’s chasing is not his strong suit.

Backs

Richo vs Croady – Even if Richo is on the wing Croad will go to him, Croad has played well on him in the past so will definitely get first crack. Richo is going to mark the footy no matter who plays on him, lets hope he leaves his kicking boots at home.

Deledio vs Browny – I think Brown would be looking forward to playing on somebody only 10cm taller than him. Has the pace and ability in the air to go with Deledio and I think Brown will be frothing at the mouth this week.

Brown vs Goo – Brown is a class act and rarely wastes a possession so if Goo does go to Brown he will need to play tight. He is playing great footy at the moment Goo and I think his attack on the footy and the man will worry Brown.

Mids

Mitch vs Foley – I think the 2 extractors might go head to head this week and Mitch will love it, Foley is trying to take his Clearance Crown and I think the boys will be at each other all night.

Hodge vs Tuck – Tuck has the strength to match Hodge in the contested situations but Tuck likes to win his own ball so he will have to be mindful of where Hodge is at all times because if he turns his back Hodgey will push forward and hurt the Tiges on the scoreboard

Campbell vs Simmonds – Simmonds is a very attacking ruckman and Robbie is a very defensive ruckman so this should be a good match up. Robbie won’t be required down back this week so should spend more time in the middle.

What to keep an eye on

Richo on a wing. If this happens Croad will go to him and I think this could work well for the Hawks. Croad is very comfortable forward so if Richo drags him down there Richo will need to be very careful because Croady has shown he can kick goals. Also look for Gilham to be our loose man in defence as opposed to Laddo or Goo if Richo is on a wing. Gilham can provide the chop out for Croad if he looses Richo in traffic up on the wing.

Tuck vs Tuck. Will Clarko bring young Travis in to go head to head with older brother Shane. Would be fantastic to see but I don’t think they will squeeze Trav Tuck into the side, if it doesn’t happen this week I would not be to worried because both Tuck’s still have long career’s ahead of them.

Franklin vs Tambling. Will Terry Tan finally put to rest all the Franklin or Tambling talk and give Bling the hardest job in footy. If Tambling kept Buddy goalless and got a lazy 25 possies I think Richmond fans would finally be happy with the way the 2004 draft paned out

The Tip

Hawks by plenty, 48 points. The forwards will be to hard for the Tigers backline to contain and the mids should provide enough ball to give us a comfortable win

[bungholes_premiers]

yeh but they'll run us off our legs ! :rolleyes:

[Stard Picket]

Thanks for the post Messenger great read :thumbsu:

[Realistic Tiger]

First off let me say thanks for the opportunity.

Hawks vs Tigers
Recent History:
At the end of 2004 both sides replaced their coaches, the Hawks went with the inexperienced Al Clarkson, while the Tigers opted for Terry Wallace. Since these 2 men have been in charge games between the 2 clubs are split 2-2. Richmond winning the first 2 and the Hawks the last 2. Last time the 2 sides met it was the Hawks who emerged victors by 53 points.

Current Form:
Hawks presently sit in second place on the ladder with an unbeaten 5-0 record and are currently seen as the main threats the the Cats. Richmond after a couple of poor games in Rounds 2 & 3 have bounced back and sit in 8th spot with a 2-1-2 record.

TAB Odds:
Head to Head: Hawks $1.16 Richmond $4.65

Teams:
See no reason either side will make any drastic changes to their respective lineups. Hawks may consider bringing in Boyle, Tuck or McGlynn while Richmond will look at Bowden, Pettifer & possibly Jackson who all played at VFL level last week but speculation is Wallace will go in unchanged as well. (Can't remember the last time Richmond kept the same side 3 weeks running)

Key Players:
Hawks:
Franklin - no need to say anything else.

Birchall - IMO, about the only Hawk who can go with Richo if he plays up the ground. Not so much in a 1-1 contest but can hurt the opposition if given time and space.

Roughead - if the Tigers do somehow manage to curb Buddy, then Roughead becomes very important to the Hawks.

Tigers:
Simmonds - needs to give first use of the ball to Richmonds onballers if Richmond are to have a real shot at causing an upset. The Hawks have 2 fine ruckmen themselves but Simmonds looks to be getting back to his 06 form.

Brown - like Simmonds, Brown also looks like he is getting some touch back. If he does fire then he can cause a few headaches for the Hawks. Was fairly quiet in rounds 2 & 3 but has 5 goals in the last 2 games and will be a dangerous either up forward or roaming up around the middle.

Deledio - missed last years game through injury and looms as a very important player for the Tigers this weekend. After a quiet round 1 match has averaged 25 touches per game in the last 4. Seems to have taken a step up. But to really step up needs to perform in a big game and against a quality opponent, this just might be the game it happens.

6 Key Matchups:
Franklin vs Thursfield - Buddy is on fire and Will has reportedly put his hand up and asked for the job. Will is an underrated FB and rarely gets towelled up by an opponent. Might conceed a few goals but has never been truly taken to the cleaners. If he can hold Buddy to 4-5 goals by the final siren on Sunday night many a Richmond fan will take that as a win.

Sewell vs Foley - I think Clarkson will have realised that Foley is the bloke that sets the tone for Richmond and will give Sewell the job of shutting him out of the game. Foley is fast becoming one of the elite midfielders of the competition and will need to be minded closely.

Mitchell vs Johnson - Wallace will give Johnson the job of trying to shut down Mitchell who like Foley seems to set the tone for the Hawks. If he gets first hand to the ball and can feed those players on the outside like Hodge, Crawford and Lewis then Richmond are in trouble. If Johnson can restrict Mitchell early Richmond might feel they are in with a chance.

Roughead vs Schulz - Sarge has been fairly solid down back for the Tigers this year and looms as a very good matchup for Roughead who set up last years game for the Hawks early. If Thursfield is doing a reasonable job on Buddy and Schulz can close down Roughy then Richmond fans could be smiling come 7.15 Sunday night.

Birchall vs Richo - you might think WTF? but I get the feeling that Clarkson might back his man to be a more damaging player by working Richo over the other way. If Richo starts on a wing then looks to push back to help the defence then I would simply instruct the Hawks players to look for Birchall around the 50m arc. Birchall has a very good kick and could really hurt Richmond if left alone this would then force Wallace to send Richo to the F50 and if that happens then I think it is a win for the Hawks, because we seem to be too Richo-centric when the big fella is inside 50.

Simmonds/Pattison vs Taylor/Campbell - this battle is very important IMO, simply for the fact that Richmond needs Pattison to stand up in the middle when Simmo rests to keep the Tigers in the game. If he can stand up and at least nullify the contests in the ruck then it gives us a fighting chance of breaking even while Simmo rests. If not then it will be like a procession with Hawk midfielders just charging out of the centre.

By The Numbers (average per game):
Disposals - Hawks 375 Tigers 373
Opponents Disposals - Hawks 329 Tigers 324

Marks - Hawks 112 Tigers 113
Opponents Marks - Hawks 91 Tigers 104

Tackles - Hawks 65 Tigers 53
Opponent Tackles - Hawks 68 Tigers 66

Goals - Hawks 18 Tigers 16
Opposition Goals - Hawks 12 Tigers 15

Contested Possessions - Hawks 39 Tigers 39
Opponents C/P - Hawks 39 Tigers 34

Errors - Hawks 82 Tigers 80
Opposition Errors - Hawks 85 Tigers 77

The Tip:
As the stats above show there is really not a heap between the sides on paper but the game is not won and lost on paper. As much as I would love to tip the Tigers to cause the upset I just can't do it. At the point in time I just think the Hawks have a little bit too much firepower for the Tigers to contain and should get over the line, however I don't think it will end up as big a margin as some do and tip the Hawks to get up by 18 points.

[wolvesjr34]

Very interesting and well considered thoughts from both contributors. It all just seems too easy and perhaps I'm used to the old days and the easy ones geting away, but I'm more nervous than I was when Hawks were playing Freo and Brisbane. It's one we shouldn't lose, but it's definitely one Richmond could pinch.

[philhawk]

Thanks to both RL and TM again for their great previews. :thumbsu:

[franny23]

the stats posted are very interesting.. looking at the goals for, contested possies, disposals for and agaisnt and marks for we are almost identical. i would have thought we would be leading alot of these conisdering how our season has panned out so far. i guess it shows how effective our disposal has been and how disciplined we've been in keeping to our game plan and breaking teams down..

matchups seem about right, although Im tipping croad to get the job on richo and run with him all day.

thursfield on Buddy, massive respect for Thursfield.. he has been one of the shining lights at richmond and should make for a great contest. as stated if buddy is kept under 6 then thats a win for richmond.

sewell to get newman in the middle and possibly delideo when hes in there.

mitchell on foley could be dangerous for both teams as they are both fantastic in the clearance. i wouldnt be surprised to see clarke get the job on foley if hes having a big influence

if Polak goes forward Gilham gets him.

ladson to brown

one id like to see....
elllis to tambling, would love to see him given the job from the first bounce.. think he has the leg speed and has the smarts to outplay Tambling who has been good the past couple of weeks. it wont happen as ellis is a much better coming off the bench playing an attacking role off half back but one to think about...

hawks by 30

[Arrian Stubbs]

Still believe hawks by a lot we have more strong markers!

[rdhopkins2]

Think the Tiges are hungry this week and want a win. Will be close, Hawks by 12pts.

Hawks are 5/0 (22.73% season complete) and had a couple of excellent wins. Richmond hanging in there. Some interesting Hawk stats:-

w Opponent Home/Away Venue FOR A Win/Loss Margin Ladder %age
1 Melbourne Home MCG 154 50 Win 104 1 308.00%
2 Fremantle Away Subiaco 112 97 Win 15 1 180.95%
3 Kangaroos Away TD 102 86 Win 16 2 157.94%
4 Adelaide Home Aurora 114 70 Win 44 1 159.08%
5 Brisbane Away Gabba 130 118 Win 12 2 145.37%



Mean win 38.2
Mode win #N/A (no two wins by same margin)
Median win 16
Max win 104
Min win 12

When you look at it we have done well to dig in and win coming from behind and 3/5 games have been decided by under 20pts. Winning form is good form and hoping it continues!

Check out http://www.pro-stats.com.au/psw/web/team_home?tid=108 for some more Hawk stats!

[Roughie]

Great write up by both, the game should be high scoring. I think our pressure, and our zoning forcing teams wide will make Richmond overposses and we will begin to see their old poor disposal start creeping back in. It will be a game where we force turn overs and imediatly capitalise, think Kangas game in our best quarters, and Melbourne with out so much dominance. I am more worried about Simmonds havign a big one I really rate this bloke but I think our duo will keep him quiet.