View Full Version : Expansion Crowds in the low 20,000's early doors for WS
AFL NSW/ACT boss Dale Holmes was quoted in the Sunday papers in Sydney saying that they expect crowds "in the low 20,000's" in the early years of the Western Sydney club.
As things stand I'd say he's kidding himself, but with 2-3 years lead in and the inevitable resources the AFL will put into getting it looking creditable from the get go, you never know.
I would have thought an average of about 15,000 early on would be more realistic.
AFL NSW/ACT boss Dale Holmes was quoted in the Sunday papers in Sydney saying that they expect crowds "in the low 20,000's" in the early years of the Western Sydney club.
As things stand I'd say he's kidding himself, but with 2-3 years lead in and the inevitable resources the AFL will put into getting it looking creditable from the get go, you never know.
I would have thought an average of about 15,000 early on would be more realistic.
I agree. For the first few years as long as the WS team get bigger crowds than the average for the NRL teams in Western Sydney then i will be happy. It will take atleast 10 years before we start seeing average crowd numbers approaching 30,000. The first few years for the WS club will be tough but i think what the AFL has to gain far outweighs what they have to lose.
Mickdog
19 May 2008, 16:16
It all depends on where they play. If they play at ANZ they will get small crowds, terrible place to watch any kind of footy. If they build a stadium that has the fans on top of the action and with easy public transport and parking they will pack the place weekly
AFL NSW/ACT boss Dale Holmes was quoted in the Sunday papers in Sydney saying that they expect crowds "in the low 20,000's" in the early years of the Western Sydney club.
As things stand I'd say he's kidding himself, but with 2-3 years lead in and the inevitable resources the AFL will put into getting it looking creditable from the get go, you never know.
I would have thought an average of about 15,000 early on would be more realistic.
When South Melbourne came to Sydney they averaged around 16k
from memory .Lets' look at the differences .
1.This will probably be a local not relocated side .
2.There is already one AFL side in town.
3. There are numerous models .
1. Local sides suffer from not having an existing base .
They tend to start up smaller but grow quicker .
They depend more on onfield success because there is no history
to fall back to give an optimistic long term outlook .
2.There will be some support from Swans members who want to watch
another game of AFL .Some support from those people who don't want
to support the Swans (I can't imagine why at this stage )
Major support will come from supporters who identify with homebush
and the idea of playing on a traditional sized oval .
Obviously derbies will be big and both teams will feed off of that .
3.With the numerous models available it is easy to see that the local
team is the long term preferred option .That the team needs to be
competitive from the onset , that the promotion and development
is completed prior to any introduction .
Good promotion could see crowds in the 20ks .
After that onfield success determines a lot .
And if the Swans are doing well that will actually help rev things up .
Imagine a WS Vs Swans GF !
.:).
No chance. If they could get a couple of crowds in the 20k's in their first year they'd be doing well.
A 15k average should be their aim in year 1, with a 10k membership.
Glory and Fame
19 May 2008, 19:42
For games against Collingwood and Essendon, crowds in the low 20,000s is realistic. They'll get more than that for the derbies.
For other games, if they get that many they're doing well.
Sydneyfan
19 May 2008, 22:58
Maybe I'm too optimistic but I think they could get high 20s, low 30s for popular Victorian clubs such as Essendon, Collingwood and Geelong if those teams are travelling well at the time. Half the crowd would be supporting the interstate club though. I think an average crowd of 18,000 - 25,000 would be a good result for the first year, keep in mind they will have one local derby and should get at least 50,000 for that and their inaugural home game should draw over 30,000 - you'd hope, which would boost the average a bit. Anything less would be a tad disappointing, provided they have a decent season and play exciting footy.
Say, for argument's sake, there's 11 home matches and they end up mid-table with attendance figures of: 45,000 (inaugural match); 32,000; 25,000; 18,000; 16,000, 17,500; 22,500; 55,000 (Sydney derby); 17,000; 23,000; 21,000 for a total of 292,000 and average of 26,545.
Though, maybe I'm just too optimistic.
Punt Road Feral
19 May 2008, 23:18
Maybe I'm too optimistic but I think they could get high 20s, low 30s for popular Victorian clubs such as Essendon, Collingwood and Geelong if those teams are travelling well at the time. Half the crowd would be supporting the interstate club though. I think an average crowd of 18,000 - 25,000 would be a good result for the first year, keep in mind they will have one local derby and should get at least 50,000 for that and their inaugural home game should draw over 30,000 - you'd hope, which would boost the average a bit. Anything less would be a tad disappointing, provided they have a decent season and play exciting footy.
Say, for argument's sake, there's 11 home matches and they end up mid-table with attendance figures of: 45,000 (inaugural match); 32,000; 25,000; 18,000; 16,000, 17,500; 22,500; 55,000 (Sydney derby); 17,000; 23,000; 21,000 for a total of 292,000 and average of 26,545.
Though, maybe I'm just too optimistic.
Where do they want to play at?
When South Melbourne came to Sydney they averaged around 16k
from memory .Lets' look at the differences .
1.This will probably be a local not relocated side .
2.There is already one AFL side in town.
3. There are numerous models .
1. Local sides suffer from not having an existing base .
They tend to start up smaller but grow quicker .
They depend more on onfield success because there is no history
to fall back to give an optimistic long term outlook .
2.There will be some support from Swans members who want to watch
another game of AFL .Some support from those people who don't want
to support the Swans (I can't imagine why at this stage )
Major support will come from supporters who identify with homebush
and the idea of playing on a traditional sized oval .
Obviously derbies will be big and both teams will feed off of that .
3.With the numerous models available it is easy to see that the local
team is the long term preferred option .That the team needs to be
competitive from the onset , that the promotion and development
is completed prior to any introduction .
Good promotion could see crowds in the 20ks .
After that onfield success determines a lot .
And if the Swans are doing well that will actually help rev things up .
Imagine a WS Vs Swans GF !
.:).
The thing with the Swans in their initial years, and it's still the case to some degree, is that their supporters generally have migrated from "footy states".
These people tend to come for work or study purposes, and they choose to live close to the city, the traditional catchment area of the Swans.
Whether they exist in any great numbers in the greater west is a moot point, certainly in my experience with local senior football they don't.
Howard Littlejohn
20 May 2008, 14:15
AFL NSW/ACT boss Dale Holmes was quoted in the Sunday papers in Sydney saying that they expect crowds "in the low 20,000's" in the early years of the Western Sydney club.
As things stand I'd say he's kidding himself, but with 2-3 years lead in and the inevitable resources the AFL will put into getting it looking creditable from the get go, you never know.
I would have thought an average of about 15,000 early on would be more realistic.
If that's the thought processes going on at AFL HQ, its disturbing. I'd be surprised if the average is over 10k; quite possibly 5k or so; in the first few years. Unless they are guaranteed Collingwood, Essendon, Adelaide, Sydney at home every year. That might push it up to 15k.
WS is about where they can be in 30-40 years time, but if the AFL is under-estimating and under-budgeting for the early years it could all go very, very wrong.
If that's the thought processes going on at AFL HQ, its disturbing. I'd be surprised if the average is over 10k; quite possibly 5k or so; in the first few years. Unless they are guaranteed Collingwood, Essendon, Adelaide, Sydney at home every year. That might push it up to 15k.
WS is about where they can be in 30-40 years time, but if the AFL is under-estimating and under-budgeting for the early years it could all go very, very wrong.
I'm trying to look at it from five years down the track when the new team is about to play it's first game.
I reckon the AFL will try and do something similar to the Swans circa '93 with Barassi and put that "wierd and wacky super salesman" Kevin Sheedy into the hot seat.
With a couple of years worth of Sheeds and his stunts trying to push the thing, along with countless development and promotional dollars, who knows?
DrewMorphett
20 May 2008, 14:50
Pfffft, 20,000 good luck.
More like 10,000 - 12,000 in their first few seasons...
Thugby fans are even more narrow-minded fundamentalist bogans that ALF supporters.
AngelEyes
20 May 2008, 15:11
How many of those Western Sydney 3-4 game memberships did the AFL sell in Sydney this year? I thought that number was quiet high i.e. near 20,000? Please correct me...
I think 20,000 paying is acheivable. I can also see the AFL giving out 10-20,000 tickets per game in the Western Sydney area to plug the game. The amount of paying patrons will be the interesting question.