The run home

[Bluebear]

No......not the SEN arvo show with Ox and Leach........OUR run home.

Our last 7 games are Swans, Doggies, Crows (AAMI), Port (TD), Roos, Lions (Gabba) and Hawks.

Potentially, on current form, we could drop all those games, and with a young list running out of legs late in the year it might pan out that way.

If we beat Freo this week that's 4 wins.

With the Cats then Port at AAMI next we may well go into 12-15 vs Pies, Dons, Tiges and Saints needing to win all 4 just to reach 8 wins. A number most of us would have thought to be the pass mark this season.

If we drop one or two of those round 12-15 games we come back to 6 wins.

Is that O.K.?

I'm not sure it is. I think we dropped the Tiges and Dons games that we should have won. Also the Lions we would hoped to have split and won down here. That would give us 5-6 wins now and have us around 10 at season's end. Are we just getting ahead of ourselves, and we are only a 6 win side..........given that we got the bonus vs WCE, a game we would not have penciled in...........

Thoughts?

[jj1978]

Have some faith....

we may run out the season full of legs!

[blues4flag]

Last time I checked, we're on the eve of round 9 and are yet to play any of those games? :confused:

A lot can happen between now and the end of the season - look back at 2003 when the Saints were on 6 wins after 15 rounds and went on to win 5 of the last 7.

[Marc Shmurf 3]

at the start of the year i was hoping for 10 wins, but realistically i knew it would be in the vacinity of 6-8. If we can reach that target and hopefully have 2-3 wins in the last 7 rounds will set us up for a big 2009. Juddy was never going to be as influential this year as in previous year, we have been decimated with injuries to some of OUR key players and Stevo was coming back from 1 year off. Guys like Bower/ Jamison/ Russell/ Betts, Gibbs/ Murphy/ Kreuzer/ Browne will have all had another year of experience to give it a real shake in 2009. In my view anything under 7 wins ATM will be a failure.

[Pamam]

i said this before in other threads

that before the season started i mentioned to friends that

by round 12 we should be 5 wins and 7 losses

anymore wins would be a bonus, anymore loses would be unacceptable

we could have been there already, though one quarter fade outs have affected us

though i still believe we can take down another couple wins in the next month

i also think we are in a better position to fight out the last 8 rounds or so compared to other years mainly coz we havent reached our peak fitness as early as other years!!

[Bluebear]

Factor in some bad luck along the way:

Round 1 - cop Richmond hitting targets and scoring heavily........pfft......unlucky

Round 2 - Saints with a full and fit and firing list........mega unlucky

Round 3 - Bombers able to score more than 10 goals and playing sublime football........before it turned to ridiculous......triple mega unlucky....

;)

[Marc Shmurf 3]

Factor in some bad luck along the way:

Round 1 - cop Richmond hitting targets and scoring heavily........pfft......unlucky

Round 2 - Saints with a full and fit and firing list........mega unlucky

Round 3 - Bombers able to score more than 10 goals and playing sublime football........before it turned to ridiculous......triple mega unlucky....

;)
in those 3 rounds i would have rathered played Geelong, Hawthorn & the Bulldogs. Games we would have been expecting to win and with a side that was clearly underdone would have got those tough game out of the way. Leaving us with Richmond, Essendon and St. Kilda meeting us at full strength

[Blue Dawn]

Factor in some bad luck along the way:

Round 1 - cop Richmond hitting targets and scoring heavily........pfft......unlucky

Round 2 - Saints with a full and fit and firing list........mega unlucky

Round 3 - Bombers able to score more than 10 goals and playing sublime football........before it turned to ridiculous......triple mega unlucky....

;)


That may well be true BB but you only play as well as your opposition lets you. ;)

Lets just get over Freo this week. If we do then we're on target for our 8 or so wins. If we can't then we are probably destined to finish 13th or 14th. :(

[Bluebear]

That may well be true BB but you only play as well as your opposition lets you. ;)

Lets just get over Freo this week. If we do then we're on target for our 8 or so wins. If we can't then we are probably destined to finish 13th or 14th. :(
Yup. That's why I posted it now.
A must win this weekend if we still think we can win 8-10 IMO.

[Tarquin]

This my be pessimistic, at the start of the year I thought the Blues would win between 6-8 games. These are the reasons.


Judd still underdone
Stevens coming back from a long break
Very young backline
Rucks needing to get some more experience (Very impressed with Cloke this year)

Every team gets the fair share of injuries, unfortunately at the moment Carlton don't have the depth to cover people like Walker, Thornton, Cloke, Fisher, Houlihan....

Wins are one key aspect, I just don't want to see Carlton losing like in previous years, when they just get blown out of the water.

[TorresIsGod]

You guys just wait until Banno is back in the side, he'll carry us to 10+ wins.

No seriously, I believe we'll win 8 games, and would suggest that anything less than 8 would be considered a mini-failure..

[HBF]

Despite our run home and inconsistent form, I still think we can win 6-10 games this year. I believe that this year was always going to be another development year, and next year should be the first year we make a run towards the final.

[thylacine60]

"Well we're, comiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiing home......................."

[RiCHii]

We have a young list. In saying that we should not be the ones running out of legs.

[`kURupT]

I don't know whats the go with all this disappointment if we don't reach around the 8 game win mark this year. We aren't a major threat for the big boys in the afl yet. Yes I'm all for the improvement and we know what some of our young guns are going to be capable of in the future but all i know is, if it came to the end of the year i wouldn't mind a draftpick in the Top 5 for 2009, especially with the new teams sucking the life out of the next few drafts.

[Mike_blues]

who knows
we could come out after the split round and go boom boom boom and finish with 10 wins
realistically with those 4 very winnable games we should win 3 of them
and beat freo theres 7

[Murph_The_Smurf]

I don't know whats the go with all this disappointment if we don't reach around the 8 game win mark this year. We aren't a major threat for the big boys in the afl yet. Yes I'm all for the improvement and we know what some of our young guns are going to be capable of in the future but all i know is, if it came to the end of the year i wouldn't mind a draftpick in the Top 5 for 2009, especially with the new teams sucking the life out of the next few drafts.

Poor form.

[Bluebear]

Tick off the Freo game.

Form still doesn't indicate we are going to finish well.
Hope for some better perfromances in the coming weeks hopefully coinciding with some returns from injury.

[gbatman]

This is a dream run home for a developing side. Great learning expierence.

You don't know where you are at as a team and as an individual until you have taken on the best, we will see where players are at as individuals and where we are as a team, starting this weekend V Geelong.
We will know who is up to it and who isn't, it will show our players where they have to be.

It's ok to beat mediocre sides like Freo and Melbourne but you have to be able to beat the top sides because that's what you have to do in finals.


I think we will know when we have made it when we start belting the suitcase out of those mediocre sides, beating some of the finals contenders, especially top 4 sides and obviously when we are playing finals.

If we are good enough to make finals, we will.

[jonoman89]

I thing we will get 7 - 10 wins. might cause an upset or two - you never know. 2009 = finals. 2010 = top 4. we don't need anymore juicy draft picks - we have enough young talent to win a flag already.

[ChunkyDuckling]

I thing we will get 7 - 10 wins. might cause an upset or two - you never know. 2009 = finals. 2010 = top 4. we don't need anymore juicy draft picks - we have enough young talent to win a flag already.

Good post. Not too unrealistic but I'm not sure about the top 4 in 2010 call, from an outside view it appears there is a way to go still. Aside from collingwood you've beaten three of the bottom four sides... (And lost to three others below you)

Ignore who I barrack for, this isn't a troll.

[blue gunslinger]

Injuries are a concern. Without more we will get key men back in Walker, Cloke, Jammo and Thornton. This would get us up to at least 6 wins at the very least. 8 is par for me (what I predicted before the season) and anything more a bonus. But it will be up to us to play well, develop and not get into the tired play many young teams get into in the second half of the season

[Mike_blues]

Good post. Not too unrealistic but I'm not sure about the top 4 in 2010 call, from an outside view it appears there is a way to go still. Aside from collingwood you've beaten three of the bottom four sides... (And lost to three others below you)

Ignore who I barrack for, this isn't a troll.
good point but we will definantly playing finals

[smithos]

The side will be in better shape to run out the season than previous years where our fitness has been peaking at round one. We'll also soon be injecting Walker, Hadley, Thornton, Bannister and Jamison back into the backline which will help out Bower and Grigg as they start to feel the effects of playing lots of minutes. Stevens and Judd should also get fitter the longer the season wears on.

[jonoman89]

Good post. Not too unrealistic but I'm not sure about the top 4 in 2010 call, from an outside view it appears there is a way to go still. Aside from collingwood you've beaten three of the bottom four sides... (And lost to three others below you)

Ignore who I barrack for, this isn't a troll.

Well i meant we should (realistically) aim for those two things in those respective seasons.

[Bluebear]

Our last 7 games are Swans, Doggies, Crows (AAMI), Port (TD), Roos, Lions (Gabba) and Hawks.

Potentially, on current form, we could drop all those games,

Port at AAMI next we may well go into 12-15 vs Pies, Dons, Tiges and Saints needing to win all 4 just to reach 8 wins. A number most of us would have thought to be the pass mark this season.

If we drop one or two of those round 12-15 games we come back to 6 wins.


I know we always "get up" for the Pies game......but they are in red hot form ATM as well.

We match up well against Port so hoping we might hurt them next week after they come back from Freo......any luck with a loss and their season in tatters.

Looking like only 2-3 more wins at best with our backline decimated with injury.

Bottom 4?

[btdg]

Interesting point; we're still capable of getting a priority pick. Not saying its advisable, but... if we lose to Port (as probably expected), and Collingwood (on ladder position), it becomes interesting. We play Essendon and Richmond, who we'd hope to win, but if the worst happened, we'd get St Kilda (who are improving, and who we match up particularly badly against), before a horror run home...

No-one wants to see us lose 14 straight or whatever, and I still reckon we're good enough to cause a couple of upsets and get the two winnable games too, giving us 8 wins for the year.

But its worth mentioning that we a 0-27 in matches that would cost us a priority pick over the past 3 years...

[thylacine60]

Interesting point; we're still capable of getting a priority pick. Not saying its advisable, but... if we lose to Port (as probably expected), and Collingwood (on ladder position), it becomes interesting. We play Essendon and Richmond, who we'd hope to win, but if the worst happened, we'd get St Kilda (who are improving, and who we match up particularly badly against), before a horror run home...

No-one wants to see us lose 14 straight or whatever, and I still reckon we're good enough to cause a couple of upsets and get the two winnable games too, giving us 8 wins for the year.

But its worth mentioning that we a 0-27 in matches that would cost us a priority pick over the past 3 years...

You don't wear a black hooded robe and carry a long-handled sickle by any chance?

[The Cranium]

Interesting point; we're still capable of getting a priority pick. Not saying its advisable, but... if we lose to Port (as probably expected), and Collingwood (on ladder position), it becomes interesting. We play Essendon and Richmond, who we'd hope to win, but if the worst happened, we'd get St Kilda (who are improving, and who we match up particularly badly against), before a horror run home...

No-one wants to see us lose 14 straight or whatever, and I still reckon we're good enough to cause a couple of upsets and get the two winnable games too, giving us 8 wins for the year.

But its worth mentioning that we a 0-27 in matches that would cost us a priority pick over the past 3 years...

That's a grim outlook.....

[Bluebear]

Interesting point; we're still capable of getting a priority pick. Not saying its advisable, but... if we lose to Port (as probably expected), and Collingwood (on ladder position), it becomes interesting. We play Essendon and Richmond, who we'd hope to win, but if the worst happened, we'd get St Kilda (who are improving, and who we match up particularly badly against), before a horror run home...

No-one wants to see us lose 14 straight or whatever, and I still reckon we're good enough to cause a couple of upsets and get the two winnable games too, giving us 8 wins for the year.

But its worth mentioning that we a 0-27 in matches that would cost us a priority pick over the past 3 years...

Not the "T" word again.......:cool:

[whippersnipper]

We will probably sneak a win or two in in those last eight rounds.

Eight wins is a fair result. Sets us up for finals next year.

[prettyboy65]

im expecting between 8 - 11
if our game lifts we are still technically capable of making finals
we have the quality
key defender injuries are killing us

[Bluebear]

Our full list playing at their best: 10-12 wins
Inured list playing at their best: 8-10 wins
Injured list playing like Richmond: 6-8 wins

PB65 - you say up to 11 wins. That's 7 out of 12 games. Did you read the OP?:confused:

Which 7 do you think we can beat?

[gouldy_34]

these last 7 games... worry me a lot. lets hope (obviously) that we can beat port, pies, essendon and richmond b4 those games. id b pretty happy with 8 wins!

[Bluebear]

Time to revisit this.


Our last 7 games are Swans, Doggies, Crows (AAMI), Port (TD), Roos, Lions (Gabba) and Hawks.

Potentially, on current form, we could drop all those games, and with a young list running out of legs late in the year it might pan out that way.
I would still argue that on current form we would only be likely to beat Port over here.
As good a win as that was, we should have lost by 7-8 goals, and there is no way any of these teams will let us back in the way Port did.


With the Cats then Port at AAMI next we may well go into 12-15 vs Pies, Dons, Tiges and Saints needing to win all 4 just to reach 8 wins. A number most of us would have thought to be the pass mark this season.
Beating Port in Adelaide was a bonus not many of us would have pencilled in, even prior to the game.
Now, it opens up the chance of beating them twice........two bonus wins.


The rethink now is:
Currently on 5 wins.
Pies, Dons, Tiges and Saints all winable.

That would take us to 9 wins if we played 4 quarters of footy as we did the fourth quarter of footy.

A win vs Port would take us to 10.

If the Hawks, Dogs and Cats (and Crows) keep winning then its possible that 10 wins could get you in, but with poor percentage (relative to other teams.......not previous years) we would need to win at least 11 games, if not 12.

Can we beat the Roos? What about Swans down here at TD?

They would be the two games that could hold the key for us.

One thing is for certain. If we make the finals then we will have earnt it. With a tough run home we need to beat some (current) top 8 sides to do so, as well as knock off the Pies twice in a year (not sure the last time we did this?), and beat the Saints (another bogey side).

Unlikely IMO, but with Judd starting to hit a higher gear and the younger guys stepping up, who knows.:thumbsu:

[Murphinator]

IMO Kangaroos are always winnable, its a side that we manage to get over the line against often.

[Bluebear]

IMO Kangaroos are always winnable, its a side that we manage to get over the line against often.

Not recently.
Grant, Harvey and Simpson seem to dominate us.

I am more optimistic this year though.

Roos just struggling a bit to hit that top form, and could well be a mini final to see who stays in the race for the 8.

[Jeremias]

I would still argue that on current form we would only be likely to beat Port over here.
As good a win as that was, we should have lost by 7-8 goals, and there is no way any of these teams will let us back in the way Port did.

Too hard to say that. Who would have thought that we would beat Port over there. Or the Dogs at the G last year. Point is, whilst we may not be expected to win them, we could pull a few out of nowhere.


Beating Port in Adelaide was a bonus not many of us would have pencilled in, even prior to the game.
Now, it opens up the chance of beating them twice........two bonus wins.


Correct, and it just shows that really anything can happen. Beating them over here in a few weeks would be fantastic.




The rethink now is:
Currently on 5 wins.
Pies, Dons, Tiges and Saints all winable.

That would take us to 9 wins if we played 4 quarters of footy as we did the fourth quarter of footy.

A win vs Port would take us to 10.


The Pies is a winnable game, and I would love it to happen, believe me. But I doubt that it will.

Dons and Tigers are definitely winnable games and realistically, we should win both of them.

The Saints are an interesting one. On current form, we should win. But then again, it's the Saints, and we never seem to be able to beat them. Likelihood is that they will come out and spank us as they usually do, get their hopes up as they usually do, and then end up doing nothing for the rest of the year.....as they usually do. Sad, but true. I would love nothing more than to beat those ____s.

If the Hawks, Dogs and Cats (and Crows) keep winning then its possible that 10 wins could get you in, but with poor percentage (relative to other teams.......not previous years) we would need to win at least 11 games, if not 12.

There is absolutely no chance of us, or any team for that matter, getting into the final 8 with 10 wins. Absolutely no chance, and even 11 is very unlikely.


Can we beat the Roos? What about Swans down here at TD?

They would be the two games that could hold the key for us.


The Roos always seem to beat us. Actually, Harvey and Grant ALWAYS seem to kill us, regardless of form.

The Swans are a genuine top 4 chance and I don't think we have what it takes to beat them...yet. Having said that, stranger things have happened, and that game is a very long way away...plenty can happen between now and then.

One thing is for certain. If we make the finals then we will have earnt it. With a tough run home we need to beat some (current) top 8 sides to do so, as well as knock off the Pies twice in a year (not sure the last time we did this?), and beat the Saints (another bogey side).

No doubt. We have a tough run home, but we have seen that we have what it takes to test a fair few very good sides.

Unlikely IMO, but with Judd starting to hit a higher gear and the younger guys stepping up, who knows.:thumbsu:

You can say that again. I highly doubt that we'll get in, but as you say, who knows? I maintain my stance that we'll be good for 8-10 wins, and I would be over the moon with that.

I can't help that our games earlier this season vs Essendon, Richmond and to a lesser extent, Adelaide, will come back to harm us. We should have won at least 2 of them, which would give us 7 wins to the half way mark, which would have been awesome. Oh well, no use dwelling on the should haves and could haves of the past - time to look to the future.

[audas]

we will ahve a fair number of good players coming back - walker, hadley, houlihan (?) etc towards the end of the year - these boys will be rested, keen as mustard and very capable of giving us a BIG lift.

On top of this we have plenty of other great contributors out - I think we should be at least one or two better off than where we are now barring injuries and slow start -


Confident run home, with fresh legs could see us do better than expected.

[TorresIsGod]

I would like to commend bluebear an on an excellent thread, and an excellent bump, certainly a big talking point isn't it.

If things go right, we're a chance to play finals this season, however, would it just be a big dent in confidence, and we'd be worse off for next season? Would we prefer to win 8-9 games, finish 10th on the ladder, then build again next season.

Personally, I'd love to play finals, but I cannot see us making an impact if we get there, so, I'd rather win 8-9 games, finish 10th and build for next season.

Just having a look at our list, only Judd, Saddington, Hadley, Stevens, Scotland and perhaps Ackland have played in a final.

Ryan Houlihan & Brendan Fevola are the only Carlton listed players, to have played a final for Carlton!!!!!

[Bluebear]

There is absolutely no chance of us, or any team for that matter, getting into the final 8 with 10 wins. Absolutely no chance, and even 11 is very unlikely.

Yes, it is unlikely.

However, if the top side continue thier current form and don't lose, then what you see is lees wins avaiable for other teams to get, hence less points spread further down, and fewer wins required to get in.

Look at the ladder now.

The Kangaroos are 5-5 and 1.

Lets say the second half of the year was a mirror of the first (it isn't, but just for arguements sake)..........they would be in the 8 with 11 wins.

If they had of lost to the Tiges......the Saints would be in the 8 on % with 5 wins...........10 for the year.

Yes.......it is unlikely, but with a heavy top end of the ladder wins wise.......it is possible that a team with only 10 or 11 wins could get in with percentage.

[rolandinho]

If things go right, we're a chance to play finals this season, however, would it just be a big dent in confidence, and we'd be worse off for next season? Would we prefer to win 8-9 games, finish 10th on the ladder, then build again next season.

Personally, I'd love to play finals, but I cannot see us making an impact if we get there, so, I'd rather win 8-9 games, finish 10th and build for next season.

IMO id rather see the 15 or however many youngsters we have playing get a final into them, then any #5 pick or other outcome that could happen. no point finishing 10th, it will help us build for next year, yes, but a final would do this X100.

Im not sure if this is what u meant, but a lot of carlton people are saying the same thing, that maybe 10th or 11th would be better then finals. To that is say no way.

ps. if this is not what u meant, my bad, as u are generally a good poster. Except i hate Cisse as he cost the reds so much money its not funny. :p

[whippersnipper]

Round 12-15: Must be at least 3-1, or preferably 4-0

Round 12: Collingwood (G)- always winnable
Round 13: Essendon (G)- should win
Round 14: Richmond- (G)- should win
Round 15: St Kilda- crucial game for both sides. Could determine who stays in contention and who drops off. MUST WIN.

Round 16-18: Will probably be 0-3, and if we lose one of the above matches, we need to win at least one of these

Round 16: Sydney (TD)- Unlikely to win and if we win the games we need to anyway, the loss should come at the right time (if ever such a thing).
Round 17: W Bulldogs (TD)- loss
Round 18: Adelaide (AAMI)- loss

If we could steal a win against the Swans, Dogs or Crows, it would help immesurably.

Round 19-22: Need to have at least 9 wins on the board by Round 19- should be 2-2

Round 19: Port (TD)-possible win-they will be vicious for some revenge but also probably out of the finals race and hunting for draft picks. Games like this we must win to play finals.
Round 20: Roos (TD)-possible win- If we are still in contention this would be the match of the round. Match up well against the Kangas and have beaten them at the Dome before in recent memory. Very winnable.

Round 21: Brisbane (Gabba)
Round 22: Hawthorn (TD): Both of these game will probably be losses. Will need at least 11 wins be the end of Round 20.

Conclusion:
So for 11 wins we need to find six more wins. They will hopefully come from games agaisnt Collingwood, Essendon, Richmond, St Kilda, Port and the Roos. Either that or we rely on pulling off a major upset or two.

[Mayesy_23]

Round 12-15: Must be at least 3-1, or preferably 4-0

Round 12: Collingwood (G)- always winnable
Round 13: Essendon (G)- should win
Round 14: Richmond- (G)- should win
Round 15: St Kilda- crucial game for both sides. Could determine who stays in contention and who drops off. MUST WIN.

Round 16-18: Will probably be 0-3, and if we lose one of the above matches, we need to win at least one of these

Round 16: Sydney (TD)- Unlikely to win and if we win the games we need to anyway, the loss should come at the right time (if ever such a thing).
Round 17: W Bulldogs (TD)- loss
Round 18: Adelaide (AAMI)- loss

If we could steal a win against the Swans, Dogs or Crows, it would help immesurably.

Round 19-22: Need to have at least 9 wins on the board by Round 19- should be 2-2

Round 19: Port (TD)-possible win-they will be vicious for some revenge but also probably out of the finals race and hunting for draft picks. Games like this we must win to play finals.
Round 20: Roos (TD)-possible win- If we are still in contention this would be the match of the round. Match up well against the Kangas and have beaten them at the Dome before in recent memory. Very winnable.

Round 21: Brisbane (Gabba)
Round 22: Hawthorn (TD): Both of these game will probably be losses. Will need at least 11 wins be the end of Round 20.

Conclusion:
So for 11 wins we need to find six more wins. They will hopefully come from games agaisnt Collingwood, Essendon, Richmond, St Kilda, Port and the Roos. Either that or we rely on pulling off a major upset or two.
Great assessment Whipper. I don't mind if we make finals or not. However a finals game into these young guys would be invaluable.

[mightymightyblues]

The way we are going it would be a tremendous effort if we finished with around 9-10 wins. By the look of this we are some chance of doing it.
Expected to win:
Essendon
Richmond
Port Adelaide

Chances to Win:
Collingwood
St.Kilda
Kangaroos

Can't see us winning:
Sydney
Bulldogs
Adelaide
Brisbane
Hawthorn

[Mayesy_23]

I'm thinking slightly differently.
Should win: Essendon, Richmond.
Better than 50/50: Port, Collingwood, St Kilda, Kangaroos.
We will struggle: Sydney, Bulldogs, Adelaide, Brisbane, Hawthorn.
Next year my expectations will be totally different.

[Murphinator]

Expect fierce rivalry between Hawks and the Blues to (re?)emerge as early as next year..

[bomba4eva]

Tough run home. Should beat Essendon and may beat Richmond. Other than that the Blues would be lucky to pinch 1 or 2 more. Looking at finishing with 8 wins or so at the end of the season. Good win against Port so you may well knock them off again.

[jj1978]

We need to get a final into these boys, as they say;

"You don't know what you're missing until you've tasted it!"

We need to make these boys taste a final and be hungry for more next year!

[Bluebear]

Expect fierce rivalry between Hawks and the Blues to (re?)emerge as early as next year..

Yes.......but wouldn't it be nice to send them into a finals campaign full of doubt. ;)

[Charbzilla]

Massive learning curve for the boys with the run home.
as long as we are pushing for the 8, thats all i care about. Doesn't matter where we finish.

ey, Whens Hadley back?

[Murphinator]

BlueBear - It definitely would be great to get one up on them/come very close this year.

Haddles is still a couple weeks away i believe?

[Macquarie Eagle]

You guys are going better than expected this year. The last game of the year will come down to if you make the finals or not.

Expect Richard Pratt to kidnapp Buddy that week!

[Jezza U Beauty]

Tough run home. Should beat Essendon and may beat Richmond. Other than that the Blues would be lucky to pinch 1 or 2 more. Looking at finishing with 8 wins or so at the end of the season. Good win against Port so you may well knock them off again.


Surely beating Port on their deck would install us as favourites for when we play them at the Dome. And i don't mean to get carried away with our form, but i'm pretty confident we've got the saints covered. We weren't that far off them when we lost by 5 goals to them earlier this year, and we're playing a lot better now than we were then. Bombers and Tigers will be underdogs against us, and the Maggies look like they'll be without Rocca and Cloke this weekend.

I'm tipping us to win 9 or possibly 10 for the year, but i'm definitely keeping a lid on it :D

[Bluebear]

The weekly update:


If we can get some fitness back.......our form today (apart from kicking effectiveness in the first half) was fantastic.


Beating Port in Adelaide was a bonus, and now smashing the Pies was a 50/50 that again, not many of us would have pencilled in


The rethink now is:
Currently on 6 wins.
Dons, Tiges and Saints all winable.

That would take us to 9 wins if we played 4 quarters of footy as we did today.

A win vs Port would take us to 10.
Can we beat the Roos? What about Swans down here at TD?

These games loom as the key to our year IMO.

Can the young guns continue to improve, and ride a wave of confidence, or will we run out of legs and form?

[whippersnipper]

Next three weeks are pivotal. Must win at least two (preferably one of them the Aints) to play finals. Simple as that.

[prettyboy65]

Our full list playing at their best: 10-12 wins
Inured list playing at their best: 8-10 wins
Injured list playing like Richmond: 6-8 wins

PB65 - you say up to 11 wins. That's 7 out of 12 games. Did you read the OP?:confused:

Which 7 do you think we can beat?


sorry for the late reply
Well we beat port and the pies
that puts us on 6
we can beat dons, bitchmond, saints, roos and sydney imo

[Bluebear]

Next three weeks are pivotal. Must win at least two (preferably one of them the Aints) to play finals. Simple as that.

I'd actually argue we MUST win all three. That gives us 9. Then we are looking for 1-3 more wins depending on percentage and other teams form.

[Bluebear]

sorry for the late reply
Well we beat port and the pies
that puts us on 6
we can beat dons, bitchmond, saints, roos and sydney imo

Quite possibly.

However, 3 of those sides have the wood well and truly over us recently.

Swans will be very hard to win, even down here (they are 4th right now), and the Roos are always tought, though if McIntosh is out and Grant not in form, things are looking up.

We have Port again here so there's another.

You may well be right - we could get 11.......I wouldn't expect it though.

[dirk pitt]

First things first, beat Essendon. It's no use winning the big games like today if you drop the baby against bottom four sides.

Having said that, if we can win our next three it'll stand us in great stead. I wouldn't want to be the side who has to play us on the back of 5 wins. Don't forget top eight sides drop games as well. Don't be suprised if we win one of the return bouts against the Crows or the Lions, even if the games are interstate. We weren't that bad again either - the belief just wasn't there yet.

The belief is growing though, and growing quickly!!

[Dramoth]

I said at the start of the year, that we would finish just outside the 8 and maybe if a few games went our way and a few opposition results went our way as well, we could play at least 1 week in the finals this year...

It's starting to look as if we might get that now.

We can win the next 2 matches and then push the Aints and, if we win that one, cement our spot in the 8 with 9 wins for the year. A win against Port at TD would definitely be the icing on the cake and would see us playing finals football this year.

We are definitely a changed team this year and the rest of the league know it :)

[Bluebear]

Round 13 update

Well now that has pretty much ____ed us.

We really had to beat the Dons today, Tiges and Saints to get us to 9 wins.

Tiges - in good form and we will need to produce our Magpies form to win
Saints - after a week off, will probably be unlucky enough to be the only side to cop them at full strength twice in one year.

Swans, Doggies, Crows (AAMI) - nope
Port (TD) - maybe
Roos, Lions (Gabba) and Hawks - nope.

With two maybees and one that we should win, I can't see us getting 10 wins, let alone 11 or 12.

With the Roos back in some form its going to be hard.

[Bluebear]

Round 14 update

We are still behind the 8 ball with our loss last week.

We produced good form again to knock off the Tiges, and with Richo (hammy) and Polak (head injury) out for the next couple (year for Polak min) their next month now looks very hard and they should drop off as contenders.

Saints - a good win last night, but have been very inconsistent, and after a week off we should be able to jump them..........just depends on how well we are switched on after the break. Will get Judd and depending on form, Walker back.............we just need to keep our form up.

Roos - They are an interesting side. Beat the Hawks but lose to Freo and Saints. I am feeling more confident by the week that we might just get over them.

Swans, Doggies, Crows (AAMI), Lions (Gabba) and Hawks - nope
Saints, Port, Roos (TD) - maybe
Port - should win

With two maybees and one that we should win, I can't see us getting more than 10 wins, let alone 11 or 12.

[Team Mo']

Adelaide is a maybe IMO also

[Just Kreuzing]

Round 14 update

We are still behind the 8 ball with our loss last week.

We produced good form again to knock off the Tiges, and with Richo (hammy) and Polak (head injury) out for the next couple (year for Polak min) their next month now looks very hard and they should drop off as contenders.

Saints - a good win last night, but have been very inconsistent, and after a week off we should be able to jump them..........just depends on how well we are switched on after the break. Will get Judd and depending on form, Walker back.............we just need to keep our form up.

Roos - They are an interesting side. Beat the Hawks but lose to Freo and Saints. I am feeling more confident by the week that we might just get over them.

Swans, Doggies, Crows (AAMI), Lions (Gabba) and Hawks - nope
Saints, Port, Roos (TD) - maybe
Port - should win

With two maybees and one that we should win, I can't see us getting more than 10 wins, let alone 11 or 12.
If we do make the 8 we would of really earnt it because we would of beat either Adelaide or Brisbane away or got over either the Swans, Dogs or Hawks which might give us a bit of confidence and belief.

We cant possibly make it unless we get 1 or 2 of the games against 4 of the top 5 teams in the run home, great experience for us to even play these sides over the next few weeks.

[whippersnipper]

We just need to beat St Kilda and North and hope for a couple of upsets.

[Bluebear]

We just need to beat St Kilda and North and hope for a couple of upsets.
Port as well. We are only on 7 wins, and 10 might sneak in, though with the top teams starting to drop a couple we may well need 12 wins to get in.
Adelaide is a maybe IMO also

We do play well over there generally, but we would need to produce a game like we did vs the Pies to do it. We won't beat any of the top 7 with 0ne good quarter unless they are having a really bad day.

Brisbane getting the wobbles?

Tightens up the last spot even more, but you'd think they will bounce back.

[gbatman]

Saints - They have had it over us for a while but we have improved so much and they have got worse and worse. We should win this.

Roos - Depends if we play the good roos or the bad roos, this team is up and down, this is definatly a winable game for us.

Swans - Hmmmm I don't think we can win this but you never know.

Doggies - As good as this side is we actually match up really well against them, we beat them last year when we could beat no one and I'm pretty sure beat them in a pre-season game this year. If ever you're gonna put a few dollars a game this year put a few on the Blues in this one.

Crows -Can't stan the Crows, play booring, ugly defensive football Similar to St. Kilda. We had a good oppertunity to beat them this season and didn't. Since them have improved a lot and we seem to play good footy at AAMI Stadium. This is a real 50/50 game but is winable.

Lions -Let ourselves down with a horrible 1st quarter (same as V Essendon) last time. Surely won't make the same misteak twice. Jamison to beat Bradshaw and O'hAlpin to hold Brown. Gonna be an interisting game for sure, 50/50 game as well, maby slightly more in Brisbane's favour. Brisbane are looking shaky ATM.


Hawks - Don't see us winning this, O'hAlpin (or Waite) V Franklin & Jamison V Roughead is going to be very amusing. An upset win is possible but I see the Hawks as being too good and readying for finals by now. Once again a good game to test our players.

Port - One rare team we have had it over recently. Should win this, home game advantage, they will be out of the finals race and not looking as keen to win (maby tanking).

[HBF]

This is how I see it panning out:

St.Kilda - very winnable, and will need to bring our form from yesterday to win.

Sydney - Nope

Bulldogs - Nope

Adelaide - Given that they only accounted for Essendon over there by a couple of kicks, we would have to give ourselves a chance. A big 4 quarter performance is required

Port - Most likely win from our remaining games. Should beat Port. No excuses here.

Kangaroos - like St.Kilda, we would need to bring our form from yesterday to win. Very much need to keep Boomer Harvey in check, as he usually does significant damage.

Brisbane - Can we? Maybe. Would be looking to atone from our pi$$ poor performance last time at the Dome. Not the fortress the Gabba once was

Hawthorn - Nope

That's 5 games I believe we as supporters could have varying degrees of confidence in. Alot will also depend on what happens to North Melb, St.Kilda, Adelaide, Collingwood and Brisbane.

[BLue_Bloys]

This is how I see it panning out:

St.Kilda - very winnable, and will need to bring our form from yesterday to win.

Sydney - Nope

Bulldogs - Nope

Adelaide - Given that they only accounted for Essendon over there by a couple of kicks, we would have to give ourselves a chance. A big 4 quarter performance is required

Port - Most likely win from our remaining games. Should beat Port. No excuses here.

Kangaroos - like St.Kilda, we would need to bring our form from yesterday to win. Very much need to keep Boomer Harvey in check, as he usually does significant damage.

Brisbane - Can we? Maybe. Would be looking to atone from our pi$$ poor performance last time at the Dome. Not the fortress the Gabba once was

Hawthorn - Nope

That's 5 games I believe we as supporters could have varying degrees of confidence in. Alot will also depend on what happens to North Melb, St.Kilda, Adelaide, Collingwood and Brisbane.

Yeah agreed Saints, North, Port, Adelaide are all around 50/50 games.

Brisbane slightly harder

The Sydney, Bulldogs, and Hawthorn looking like definite losses.

We need 5 definite wins for finals, at the moment we probably fall a game or two short. You never know, from memory a few years back we almost beat Sydney when Fev was suspended?? We usually match up well vs the dogs, but this year I can't see them crumbling like they have in the past.


Either way, I'm quite happy whatever happens from now. I can see the improvement and am quite confident in our list. For the first time in a long time people are arguing over who should be in the side.

[BlueYoss]

I have a slightly different approach to the last 8 rounds of the season. I list the games in order of my confidence in our ability to get the 4 points:

1. Port
2. St Kilda
3. Adelaide
4. Kangaroos
5. Brisbane
6. Bulldogs
7. Hawthorn
8. Sydney

We will take enormous confidence from pulling off a win over the Tiges in the absence of Judd and let's just hope that the way Gibbs, Stevo and Murph stepped up to cover him becomes a new standard that they set themselves to achieve as a minimum each week for the reamainder of the season.

Judd having a 3 week rest and the return of Tex and Banno should translate into further improvement.

Our vastly improved fitness and ability to run out games (big Christmas bonus for Justin Cordy!) should come into play more and more as the season wears on. Could our ability to run over teams in final quarters also mean we're a good chance of running over teams in the final rounds of a long season? :)

Finally, what I see as providing the most determination to our playing group is that there's only 1 and a half games separating the teams occupying positions 5 through 10 on the ladder. This means that each week the players will know that they are playing for a spot in the 8 and every game presents the opportunity to prove to themselves and the supporters that they have what it takes to match it with the better teams. This should provide the ideal environment to bring out the best in our young playing group as they strive to rise to the occasion each week.

Confidence and momentum will also come into play if we manage to pull off an inspirational win or 2 against the odds.

As a Hawthorn supporter pointed out in another thread, our round 22 clash could well see us needing the 4 points to make the 8 and them needing the win for a top 4 finish. On top of that Fev and Buddy could both well be on 90something goals, striving to crack the elusive hundred as they fight it out for the Coleman!

Fasten your seatbelts Baggers, whatever happens were in for a very exciting 8 rounds after the break! :D

[Just Kreuzing]

This is how I see it panning out:

St.Kilda - very winnable, and will need to bring our form from yesterday to win.

Sydney - Nope

Bulldogs - Nope

Adelaide - Given that they only accounted for Essendon over there by a couple of kicks, we would have to give ourselves a chance. A big 4 quarter performance is required

Port - Most likely win from our remaining games. Should beat Port. No excuses here.

Kangaroos - like St.Kilda, we would need to bring our form from yesterday to win. Very much need to keep Boomer Harvey in check, as he usually does significant damage.

Brisbane - Can we? Maybe. Would be looking to atone from our pi$$ poor performance last time at the Dome. Not the fortress the Gabba once was

Hawthorn - Nope

That's 5 games I believe we as supporters could have varying degrees of confidence in. Alot will also depend on what happens to North Melb, St.Kilda, Adelaide, Collingwood and Brisbane.
I think we will be a chance against the hawks, not entirely convinced they are that good, rely alot on Buddy and Roughead and Buddy has shown that when he is bad he can be very bad, also their defense is suspect to quick ball movement, so win the clearances and get it going our way and we would be a chance, or simply study and adopt the game plan the Dogs and Crows used to great effect against them, wont be an easy task but think we are capable.:thumbsu:

[red+black]

If Carlton defeat both St Kilda and North Melbourne, I feel other results will fall in place and Carlton will snag 8th.

[WeninRome]

A win against St Kilda would be a massive barometer for our season... they are OUR bogey side big time.

We need to stop Milne....Army needs to play on him or even bannister.

[Bluebear]

A win against St Kilda would be a massive barometer for our season... they are OUR bogey side big time.

We need to stop Milne....Army needs to play on him or even bannister.
Banno may be fit. Not sure about Army though...........Walker?



7. Hawthorn
8. Sydney

You have more faith in us beating the Hawks than the Swans?:confused:

For the first time in a long time people are arguing over who should be in the side.

Nah......it's just now they have a point.:D

[BlueYoss]

You have more faith in us beating the Hawks than the Swans?:confused:

Yes -Sydney are every bit as much our bogey side as St Kilda, if not more so!

Do you have any idea how long it's been since we've beaten Sydney?

It was Round 8 2000! That's right, well over 8 years!!

The lasy time we beat Sydney Kouta was dominating the game and Ratts
was providing great support from underneath the packs! :eek:

Hawthorn definitely inflicted some serious trauma last year, we went into that game full of bravado and they jumped out of the blocks and smashed us without even letting us touch the leather. But until that game they were always one of our more beatable teams.

I also think Hawthorn are somewhat flattered by their ladder position and seem to have some cracks showing while Sydney are a much more cohesive discliplined unit who seem to get better at running out games as the season wears on. The way they can suffocate the life out of a game no matter who the opposition will IMO present a much greater challenge to our young inexperienced group to overcome.

[Macquarie Eagle]

Buddy has shown that when he is bad he can be very bad

What power forward hasn't shown that?

You can lump Fev, Riewoldt, Hall and almost all of the other elite forwards into this category. I know Buddy is good but he ain't going to kick a bag every week.

[thylacine60]

What power forward hasn't shown that?

You can lump Fev, Riewoldt, Hall and almost all of the other elite forwards into this category. I know Buddy is good but he ain't going to kick bag every week.

Course not. Toss a drink over her but.

[Macquarie Eagle]

Pay that! :D:thumbsu:

[Bluebear]

Round 15 update

That's curtains folks.

We needed to beat the Saints and Dons to get this done.

Had we done that we would be 6th right now on 36 points, 1 1/2 games clear of the Roos, behing the 5th placed Pies on % and 1/2 a game out of the top 4.

That might have given us enough confidence to beat the Swans this week, and whichever way the Pies/North game went, we'd either be in the top 4, or be 2 1/2 games clear of 9th with 6 games to go.


The Swans game this week should be a maybe, but its not. They will clog Fev's space and pressure our delivery. With Kennelly and Malceski both likely to play they will run the ball out of the backline at will and we won't have a good day.

Dogs game, the only hope is the "let down" after playing the Cats. We mightbe able to jump them early and hang on, but I doubt it.


Crows game now becomes a maybe. Burton hurt us badly last time, and with the Porpus a likely miss as well, they may need to throw Bock up forward leaving Fev and Rutten with more room to move.

Lions, despite some poor form should maintain their run against us at the Gabba.

Hawks will smash us.

Port are improving and will be a hrad game but we should win, and the Roos are very unpredictable, but again seem to have our measure. Another maybe.

Swans, Doggies, , Lions (Gabba) and Hawks - nope
Crows (AAMI), Port, Roos (TD) - maybe

With 3 maybees I can't see us getting more than 10 wins, let alone 11 or 12.

Lose this week and we need to start planning for next year. Rest Kreuzeer and give Hampson (in the best this week) a run.

If Hartlett is fit bring him in and let him play for a contract or a trade.

Austin should get a reward for effort. In the Ants best for well over a month now.

[BlueYoss]

Round 15 update

That's curtains folks.

I'm not as quick to concede here.

While I am as disappointed as anyone that we didn't manage to get over St Kilda (or Essendon for that matter) two factors that can't be ignored:

1. Both St Kilda and Essendon have come into some form recently and looking like making a late run for the finals.

and more significantly,

2. Adelaide, Brisbane and Sydney are starting to show some cracks and are no certainties to make the 8 which means a) there are potentially more places up for grabs in the 8 and b) we play all 3 of these teams and they all become more winnable games now.

I'm not as confident of making the 8 after some disappointing results in must-win games, but I wouldn't go so far as to call it curtains just yet -I still think we are still in a position to take things one game at a time, if we manage an upset over Sydney next week (as unlikely as that may be) we're right back in the hunt...

[Bluebear]

I'm not as quick to concede here.

While I am as disappointed as anyone that we didn't manage to get over St Kilda (or Essendon for that matter) two factors that can't be ignored:

1. Both St Kilda and Essendon have come into some form recently and looking like making a late run for the finals.

and more significantly,

2. Adelaide, Brisbane and Sydney are starting to show some cracks and are no certainties to make the 8 which means a) there are potentially more places up for grabs in the 8 and b) we play all 3 of these teams and they all become more winnable games now.

I'm not as confident of making the 8 after some disappointing results in must-win games, but I wouldn't go so far as to call it curtains just yet -I still think we are still in a position to take things one game at a time, if we manage an upset over Sydney next week (as unlikely as that may be) we're right back in the hunt...

Half full right?:p
http://saveourspecies.files.wordpress.com/2008/04/glass_half_full.jpg
.......still a mathematical possibility? :D

[blues4flag]

I'm not as quick to concede here.

While I am as disappointed as anyone that we didn't manage to get over St Kilda (or Essendon for that matter) two factors that can't be ignored:

1. Both St Kilda and Essendon have come into some form recently and looking like making a late run for the finals.

and more significantly,

2. Adelaide, Brisbane and Sydney are starting to show some cracks and are no certainties to make the 8 which means a) there are potentially more places up for grabs in the 8 and b) we play all 3 of these teams and they all become more winnable games now.

I'm not as confident of making the 8 after some disappointing results in must-win games, but I wouldn't go so far as to call it curtains just yet -I still think we are still in a position to take things one game at a time, if we manage an upset over Sydney next week (as unlikely as that may be) we're right back in the hunt...
Agree 100%.

While the St Kilda loss hurts, the masses have been very quick to drop their heads. One week ago we were all quietly confident of being a chance to feature in September, and while we did lose, so did Adelaide (sustaining key injuries) and Brisbane (straight losses to Melbourne and Essendon).

An upset this week against the Swans could see us equal with the eight. Tough, no doubt, but they've had an easy run - the only top 8 sides they've beaten are Saints (1 win, 1 loss) and Brisbane. With the Saints up against Hawthorn, the Roos playing an in-form Collingwood and Adelaide against Port (which, like our matches against the Bombers and Pies, are always unpredictable), who knows how the ladder will stand going into round 17.

[BlueYoss]

Half full right?:p
http://saveourspecies.files.wordpress.com/2008/04/glass_half_full.jpg
.......still a mathematical possibility? :D

Half full or half empty is purely a matter of personal taste/opinion.

Personally, I'm holding onto that extra bit of excitement that comes in the final stretch of the home and away season and your team is still some kind of chance of playing finals.

Granted, with each loss that chance gets slimmer, but why kiss it goodbye when it hasn't actually gone yet?

[Dramoth]

well... considering that this was supposed to be a development year, I would say that we have exceeded all expectations so far in the development.

That being said, I would like to see us win 1 or 2 more games just to round out a good starting season for our rebirth as a great club.

A full preseason into Judd and Kreuzer and you will see us performing better next year.

We were never really expectung to play in the finals so finishing just outside the 8 is a good year for us :)

But if we can make it into the finals... lets give the world a shake and kick some ass :)

[BlueYoss]

well... considering that this was supposed to be a development year, I would say that we have exceeded all expectations so far in the development.

That being said, I would like to see us win 1 or 2 more games just to round out a good starting season for our rebirth as a great club.

A full preseason into Judd and Kreuzer and you will see us performing better next year.

We were never really expectung to play in the finals so finishing just outside the 8 is a good year for us :)

But if we can make it into the finals... lets give the world a shake and kick some ass :)

(Collingwood at this stage probably looking more likely to finish 4 than 5 and us looking more likely to finish 9 than 8 BUT) if Collingwood finish 5 and we finish 8 then we play them in the first week of finals :D

[Pamam]

A full preseason into Judd and Kreuzer and you will see us performing better next year.


would be nice to get Kreuzer into a full pre-season though isnt he expected to go under the knife end of the season for his hip???

they might as well fix him up earlier rather than later i say before it flairs up!!

[Bluebear]

Round 16 update

Now that's REALLY curtains folks.

We needed to beat the Saints and Dons to get this done. A win against the odds vs Swans would have pulled one of those back,

Dogs game, the only hope is the "let down" after playing the Cats, but I suspect it will be more likely they hit us on the rebound and take out the loss on us.

Crows game still a maybe.

Lions, despite some poor form should maintain their run against us at the Gabba.

Hawks will smash us.

Port are improving and will be a hard game but we should win, and the Roos are very unpredictable, but again seem to have our measure. Another maybe.

Doggies, Lions (Gabba) and Hawks - nope
Crows (AAMI), Port, Roos (TD) - maybe

With 3 maybees I can't see us getting more than 10 wins, let alone 11 or 12.

We need to start planning for next year. Rest Kreuzer and give Hampson a run.

If we can I'd even bring in Sammy Jacobs (Ackland on the LTI - pulled heart muscle) and see if the big fella can tap a few down to Juddy. Might be just the spur he needs to take the next step, and will help our decision on what to do with him

Hartlett and Austin should play out the year in the senior side regardless of form.[/quote]

[as0l0]

We are good enough to win the rest of our games for this year.

[walshy93]

Agree with Bluebear, give Hartlett and Austin more than 1 week at a time in the seniors.

[rolandinho]

Agree with Bluebear, give Hartlett and Austin more than 1 week at a time in the seniors.

They will both play this week, stated ratts this morning on SEN :thumbsu:

[whippersnipper]

Thats it folks. Sydney was our last ditch effort and we came up short.

Lets hope for another three wins to get us to double figures and look toward 2009 with confidence.

[BlueYoss]

Doggies, Lions (Gabba) and Hawks - nope
Crows (AAMI), Port, Roos (TD) - maybe

With 3 maybees I can't see us getting more than 10 wins, let alone 11 or 12.

But a win over one of your 'nope' teams and we're right back in the race.

What a co-incidence that we come up against one of your 'nope' teams this week :)

And we do match up well against the Doggies, have for a number of years, and as much as they may have improved this year, we are also a vastly improved team this year.

& at $3.55 I think we're worth a punt ;)

We need to start planning for next year. Rest Kreuzer and give Hampson a run.

If we can I'd even bring in Sammy Jacobs (Ackland on the LTI - pulled heart muscle) and see if the big fella can tap a few down to Juddy. Might be just the spur he needs to take the next step, and will help our decision on what to do with him

Ratts has already confirmed that Kreuze will play this week, but I wouldn't mind seeing Sammy get a run before the year is out.

Hartlett and Austin should play out the year in the senior side regardless of form.

Agree 100%.

But I don't necessarily think that playing Ozzie and Harts constitutes putting the cue in the rack, Ozzie in particular looked very good last week and while Harts could have had a better game, he got through without injury and could well straighten us up a bit this week, provide another forward option and stretch the Doggies' defence. :thumbsu:

[Bluebear]

But a win over one of your 'nope' teams and we're right back in the race.

What a co-incidence that we come up against one of your 'nope' teams this week :)


We came up against one last week.........not so good.

You are right in that we match up O.K. vs the Dogs. Beat them last year, level at 3/4 time the year before (With Setanta doing a great job on Grant).

I just think the Dogs have taken a big step, and we have taken a little one, and they have something we have trouble with.......a good small forward in Aker.

Fingers crossed, but I think within 3 goals of them would be a good result.

[Bluebear]

Told ya so guys.........Doggies = nope (as in nope, no hope against us) :p

Well shit a brick if that doesn't turn our season on its head.

My poor little pessimistic Blues brain has been pre-programmed for "competitive losses" and looking towards the draft at this time of year, and with the back in form "out of form" Crows at AAMI next week, where we play well.......and the hapless (or is it hopeless) Port the week after over here, we could storm into the 8.

Forget the Roos game.......all of a sudden the Lions game shapes as an 8 pointer.

Oh, for that win vs the Dons......either of them.

Great stuff Blues, glad to be wrong today.:thumbsu:

[bluesx10withjudd]

crows, port, kangas...are winnable games. hawks.....meh you never know.

Either way wouldn't it be nice to finish 8th, pies finish 5th, and we smack em by 10 goals:p.......sigh.....what a way to top off a productive year:)

[BlueYoss]

crows, port, kangas...are winnable games. hawks.....meh you never know.

Either way wouldn't it be nice to finish 8th, pies finish 5th, and we smack em by 10 goals:p.......sigh.....what a way to top off a productive year:)

Crows could be dangerous in AAMI after knocking over Sydney, our best lockdown player (Tex? Bryce?) needs to wear Porps like a glove and not let him touch the ball. Vince will do the same to Judd so we'll need to make sure he gets plenty of blocks and bumps and our other mids may have to step up in contested ball and clearances, but still a very winnable game!

Port shouldn't pose much of a threat, with most of their key players already booked in for season ending surgery, but like the Essendon game, complacency could prove to be our biggest enemy, must come out hungry!

Kangaroos are the new Freo, you just don't know which team is going to come to play. They were very impressive Geelong, Hawthorn and the Doggies but were very unimpressive against Melbourne on the weekend (won the first quarter but lost the other 3) and Fremantle. Let's hope we jump out of the blocks and dominate play so we dictate to them which North Melbourne side turns up :thumbsu:

Brisbane have been showing some cracks but only away from the Gabba. They got the early jump on us at the dome this year but on our day, even at the Gabba we should be able to take the game right up to them and match their run and hardness at the ball.

Hawthorn, although a very long shot, will be coming back from playing WC @ Subi on the Sunday, has the West Australian hangover been in effect so far this year? I haven't looked into it yet (but I will as we get closer to that game!).

We're no certainties, but we are definitely still in the race, and this year, the race home to September is one of the most exciting in recent times -with so many teams in with a realistic chance so late in the season. I'm just wrapped that we're still part of the action and not counting priority picks :):thumbsu:

[bluesx10withjudd]

I'm just wrapped that we're still part of the action and not counting priority picks :):thumbsu:[/quote]

couldn't agree more:)

[Bluebear]

Bring on the pre-season.

The next 4 weeks we should be planning for next year.

Play the young guys in positions we think they will stay in (i.e. Harts in to CHF, Jacobs - ruck), and help us make some decisions at the end of the year.

Should have won today, but it wasn't to be.

Should win next week, but our percentage means we need to make up 2 wins in the next .

Port - should win
North - will be tough, they match up well on us.
Lions - looking shaky, but again, a bogey side and we don't travel East well.
Hawks - form team, looking at turning around a 100 point loss. Tough ask.

If the Saints win we will be looking at getting ahead of the Lions and the Pies.

Rnd 19
Us - Port
Saints - Pies
Hawks - Lions.
Tiges - Crows

We should draw level after the Port game, but be behind on %. Ahead of Tiges.

Rnd 20
Us - Roos
Pies - Port (AAMI)
Lions - Dogs (GABBA)
Tiges - Hawks

If we win vs Roos, might go a game clear of Lions, level with Pies, 6 pts ahead of Tiges.

Rnd 21
Us - Lions (GABBA)
Pies - Swans (MCG)
Tiges - Freo

Pies usually beat the Swans, we would have to win and still be out on %. A win for us would end the Lions and Tiges year being 2 games behind us with 1 to go.

Rnd 22
Us - Hawks
Pies - Freo
Tiges - Dees


We basically need the Pies to drop a game they should win (always possible) and we would need to win pretty much all our games to sneak in.

Can't see it.:(

[Bluebear]

Hmmm............no Heath or Rhys Shaw, and No Didak.

Pies may just drop that game or two..............interesting.;)