View Full Version : Will we bite? (Sorry, trade thread)
Warwick
18 Jun 2008, 18:45
You see a lot of people around the traps suggesting their team off-loads reasonable talent to load up on draft picks before the GC and WS teams are introduced to give them a better chance at a flag in 4 or 5 years time.
IMO this is rot.
A lot of these supporters are from teams who seem to be constantly "rebuilding" and are always a flag thread in <current year + 3>. They also seem to be of the opinion that youth = guaranteed future success.
I think there may be a couple of bargains to be had at the trade table at the end of the year for the teams willing to part with their treasured draft picks. Would you trade some of our better picks to pick up a classy, yet older player?
I'm not talking about players such as the uber Collingwood duds who are always suggested (i.e. Cox, Toovey, Cook, Egan etc), i'm talking players like Brad Green or Adam McPhee. Players who we may only get 3-4 years of service from.
I don't think we are really close to winning a flag, but I do think we are a better chance with a fully firing Black and Power. Some teams have been waiting 50+ years to win a premiership. They are not easy.
We are also one of the youngest teams in the comp and have a lot of untried youngsters already on our list. Would you be willing to risk perhaps a few years of pain for a shot at a flag in the next couple of years?
Loyal Lion
18 Jun 2008, 19:05
I've been thinking about this Warwick. Ideally we'd like to find another "Pikey" somewhere. He was a problem child who turned out to be a fabulous player in our premiership years.
Ideally I'd like to get a small forward who is capable of kicking 40-50 goals per year. We desperately need to spread the goal kicking tally around, to become less predictable.
The only person on our list who I think is capable of filling this role is Ash McGrath. However looks like he has settled into a defensive role quite well.
Dare I say it (it's only a suggestion!), would Stephen Milne be an option ? He is a hungry little buggar around goals, but he knows where they are.
What about Nick Davis or Kane Pettifer ??? You would get either of these 3 for a 3rd round pick.
Yes Brad Green would be ok as HFF, but I don't think that Melbourne would let him go.
Looks like Collingwood did ok in picking up Medhurst.
choco123
18 Jun 2008, 19:14
An interesting question, I guess that clubs will place an inflated price on picks at the end of the yr, and yeah, there should be some bargains on the table. As per the previous two posts, I wouldn't mind Brad Green playing on a forward flank, and players like Matt Rosa and Brad Fisher wouldn't be bad acquisitions as well. Would have thought that Green would come for a early 3rd round pick, and Fisher and Rosa for about a pick in the 20s...
However we don't really have a history of recruiting mature-age players, and with the arrival of Johnstone, something tells me that we won't be repeating this for a couple of years.
KungFooSing
18 Jun 2008, 19:25
I don't buy the whole 'youth = success' line either. Look at St Kilda and their high draft picks, where hads it gotten them? The only real draft 'rebuilding' success story, that is still a loooong way from fruition is Carlton, and thats ONLY because they were SO terrible for so long they picked up a ridiculous number of high picks.
Premierships are bloody hard to win, theres only been 100 of them in the last cebtury of football. 'Rebuilding with youth' guarantees nothing, quality players, smart drafting, recruiting and developing are the keys, and only the really special teams pull it off.
Warwick makes a good point about Black and Power, but the likes of Brown, Matthews and Leppitsch are also still here and they to me are the cornerstones for greatness.
Theres enough quality youth and filler in our squad that we can look at giving up draft choices for solid established league footballers of the ilk of Green, McPhee and Bolton.
I personally think with the results our staff have achieved with drafting and trading in the last decade, we are certainly going to be one of the few clubs to come out of the other end of the WS/GC introduction winners.
sorry to intrude, but just out of interest, what would you boys be willing to give up for Green?
TheBrownDog
18 Jun 2008, 19:50
sorry to intrude, but just out of interest, what would you boys be willing to give up for Green?
I don't think this is the path Warwick wants the thread to go down.
Once we start discussing actual trade scenarios (especially with supporters of other clubs), we begin treading a slippery slope.
KungFooSing
18 Jun 2008, 20:34
sorry to intrude, but just out of interest, what would you boys be willing to give up for Green?
Travis Johnstone.
I think for Green you would need to give up a first round draft pick
Old Den
18 Jun 2008, 21:24
Could somebody suggest why Melbourne would want to give up Green?I can't see any reason for,or sense in doing that - a quality player important to their rebuilding
The Lions have only traded 3 players into the club since 2000 - Michael,Caracella and Johnstone - a policy that has served us well - I have no doubt the recruiters will be very discerning and restrained in future and our salary cap is going to take some managing as well
Unless we were offloading later picks for these players (essentially "drafting" them for the 3-4th round picks) I wouldn't go near them. Most of the time there's a good reason they're being unloaded, and given some clubs' history with older players switching clubs I think there's a very good reason we've historically been one of the least active in recruiting matured talent. There's obviously been a few prime exceptions to that rule, but they're just that - exceptions.
konstas_87
19 Jun 2008, 00:00
id be filthy if we gave up draft picks for Brad Green.
soft as butter mentally, queenz birthday game he had 3 shots in 10 mins game was in the balance, missed all 3.
no thanks.
awesome_assassin
19 Jun 2008, 07:10
I think we allready have bitten. The TJ trade was a little out of the blue.
This was our top-up player. We just did it a year earlier than most clubs.
As others have said, in the last 7-8 years Pike, Mal, Carracella and now TJ are the only times weve traded for established players. I just couldnt see us in that situation again, unless something remarkable came up, that was just too good to refuse.
First round and second round picks - no trade this year.
3rd round onwards, depends on whats on the table.
I think all those trades were done to make the best out of a bad situation. I don't think the Lions were specifically looking to pick up an 'experienced' player.
Let's just see which players want to leave at the end of the year and what their calibre is. That will dictate everything I think.
Ideally I'd like to get a small forward who is capable of kicking 40-50 goals per year. We desperately need to spread the goal kicking tally around, to become less predictable.
What about Nick Davis or Kane Pettifer ??? You would get either of these 3 for a 3rd round pick.
Nick Davis strikes me as the sort of bloke who is good but doesn't do the chasing and tackling required of a small forward these days, which is exactly the sort of thing Matthews is so good at getting out of players.
It seems like Sydney are sick of him so you would think you could get him cheap. Grab him with your third rounder and then have Lethal shout at him until he plays how you want.
Quigley
19 Jun 2008, 09:04
Loyal - Pettifer is one guy who could be interesting. He is an established goal kicking small forward who can get plenty of it and would be a good addition to the forward line as far as kicking goals go. The negatives though outweigh the positives at the moment ie he is a one way player who will not chase and is a party boy who is more interested in the trappings of playing AFL than actually playing AFL. If Matthews was confident he could sort out those two pretty big negatives he would help our team a fair bit. With him being only a very part time player this year you would also have to figure he is not going to cost much.
3rd round onwards, depends on whats on the table.
I may be wrong but I don't think that clubs' recruitment strategy will change too much. I don't think you'd get anything of significant value with a 3rd round pick, even this year. We've got a "tight" list as it is - with the likeliood of at least 1 or 2 delistings of players who are going to be unlucky in some sense. Let's say Robbie Copeland is the unlucky delisting - are we likely to get a better player than Bushy with a 3rd round pick? We certainly won't get a better clubman.
We've also got a reasonably balanced list at this stage. The area that we are probably lacking is midfield depth but we've got 3 x top 40 midfielders from the super draft developing in the reserves, a couple from last year who seem to be on pace and we'll probably add another 1 or 2 in this year's draft. The addition of a fringe midfielder isn't necessarily going to improve our side (although I'd love a tough nut extractor!).
A small forward? Possibly, although we've got one who is only in his 3rd year of footy and another who looks quite dangerous as a goal kicker. What I'd love to add is a Steve Johnson, Alan Didak type who is exceptionally clever with a good goal sense - but those types are freaks and you tend to stumble on them rather than targetting them. As youngsters, they also tend to be flighty and give the impression of not really being professional - Stupido, for example. I'm not sure such a player is going to be available, especially with a low level pick. On pure footballing ability alone, Ben Cousins would be an ideal pick as a clever half forward but we wouldn't be the only club thinking that.
In my mind, it is business as usual as far as our future planning goes. We've got a good mix in the side now. Unless a bargain comes along, we'll probably just use 3 or 4 draft picks and be fairly quiet in the trade period.
Quigley
19 Jun 2008, 09:23
Steve Johnson you say - Cornelius looks like he is slipping in the draft a bit atm.
Loyal - Pettifer is one guy who could be interesting. He is an established goal kicking small forward who can get plenty of it and would be a good addition to the forward line as far as kicking goals go. The negatives though outweigh the positives at the moment ie he is a one way player who will not chase and is a party boy who is more interested in the trappings of playing AFL than actually playing AFL. If Matthews was confident he could sort out those two pretty big negatives he would help our team a fair bit. With him being only a very part time player this year you would also have to figure he is not going to cost much.
Pettifer is lazy. Would strengthen only the Suncoast Lions if recruited.
awesome_assassin
19 Jun 2008, 11:11
although I'd love a tough nut extractor
this is exactly what i want as well, to help poor old Blacky out:thumbsu:
Grimreepah
19 Jun 2008, 12:08
People say there is an increased value on draft picks this year, but you also have to consider that next year is a time when you don't want to be bottoming out.
I think the focus should continue to be on player development and to just make the most of whatever picks come your way. To me a draft pick still has the same value and an experienced player still has the same value, so the trading strategy should just be the same as normal.
One possible change is that with the draft going a bit deeper you might be more likely to take fewer picks, so that may affect your list management to a certain extent.
Old Den
19 Jun 2008, 13:04
I think we allready have bitten. The TJ trade was a little out of the blue.
This was our top-up player. We just did it a year earlier than most clubs.
As others have said, in the last 7-8 years Pike, Mal, Carracella and now TJ are the only times weve traded for established players. I just couldnt see us in that situation again, unless something remarkable came up, that was just too good to refuse.
Pikey came courtesy of pick 33 in the 2000 National Draft,4 picks after Jamie Charman was the last special concession pick - we also got Ash McGrath at pick 13 and we had traded Mal Michael from Collingwood for Jarod Molloy - Pikey had been delisted by the Kangaroos - all very nicely done
We have also picked up a few older recruits from interstate in recent years including Joel Patfull,Jason Roe and Bradd Dalziell - this seems to be a good way to go until the occasional opportunity to land an experienced,classy player presents itself in a trade(or the draft)
We have also picked up a few older recruits from interstate in recent years including Joel Patfull,Jason Roe and Bradd Dalziell - this seems to be a good way to go until the occasional opportunity to land an experienced,classy player presents itself in a trade(or the draft)
I do like this way of doing it. It comes without the big salary, the pressure and the analysis getting an "almost made it" player.
i would take cousins with a first round pick, we would get 3 elite years out of him
TheBrownDog
19 Jun 2008, 20:26
I do like this way of doing it. It comes without the big salary, the pressure and the analysis getting an "almost made it" player.
Yeah, I like this approach too.
Generally this players are very grateful for the chance they get given, when they probably thought they had missed the AFL boat.
As a result, they don't muck about, and are generally very committed and professional.
TheBrownDog
19 Jun 2008, 20:30
i would take cousins with a first round pick, we would get 3 elite years out of him
I'd change that would to 'might'.
Could very, very easily go off the rails again. Sure the payoff if it works is massive, but this is a bloke who has repeatedly thrown away every 'last chance' he was given.
Personally I'd rather take my chances with a kid in the draft.
Old Den
19 Jun 2008, 21:39
i would take cousins with a first round pick, we would get 3 elite years out of him
Don't we want to use the first rounder this year for a young mid prospect?
Might get a gun 10 year player out of this year's supposed strong draft
Steve Johnson you say - Cornelius looks like he is slipping in the draft a bit atm.
I am on the Cornelius bandwagon, even though the draft is five months away.
choco123
20 Jun 2008, 00:24
ahh corey jones maybe, not as consistent as last year, nice lead up 3rd forward, maybe selwood (who they were interested in last yr IIRC) and third round.
thoughts?
Don't we want to use the first rounder this year for a young mid prospect?
Might get a gun 10 year player out of this year's supposed strong draft
I would back Cousins in for 3 years under the Matthews regime, then in the following 2 drafts i would get as many gun mids as possible, obviously the Gold Coast teams concessions would change my thinking if we didn't have access etc.
FWIW our premiership window is the next 3 years, Black, Power, Brown and Bradshaw are our most important players, Brown may be the only one still playing/at the peak of his powers by this time. Obviously this all depends on what Lethal thinks we have coming through
I would be extremely surprised if Leigh picked up Cousins.
IMO its better to persist with Albie, Razzle and Hanley. Cousins is a teasing prospect but bringing him in would reflect our loss of faith in the emerging talent.
campbell
20 Jun 2008, 10:15
I think we need to trade for Bock. lol.
Seriously, if we gt cousins, i will not be too pleased.Too much time out of the game, tagged along with his age. Forget the drug stuff, he would be clean within an inch of his life, its the on field I worry about.
Nick del Santo just got dropped. Possible clear out at the Saints at the end of the year? They wouldn't would they? Hmmmm, <dares to dream>
And I'd take Cousins if his attitude was right, but not for a first round pick. Brisbane could work well for him, away from the spotlight, strong leadership group etc. Surely West Coast don't own the rights for him anymore? anyone know what the exact situation is?
notting18
20 Jun 2008, 11:34
Surely West Coast don't own the rights for him anymore? anyone know what the exact situation is?
He is a complete free agent. However, the AFL has not said that if he nominates for the draft he will allowed to be drafted/play again. That has been currently left in the "deal with it if needed basket."
IMO Cousins' cons outweigh the possible pros and even if he does come back I would be VERY surprised if he gave more than a "Carey at the Crows cameo" for a variety of reasons.
campbell
20 Jun 2008, 11:38
I thought he was allowed to go in the draft this year. Thats what was said when he was outed for the 1yr period.
notting18
20 Jun 2008, 11:46
I thought he was allowed to go in the draft this year. Thats what was said when he was outed for the 1yr period.
"The AFL Commission set down a process at the end of last year when he was suspended for 12 months that it would review his progress at the end of the 12 months and see if he is ready to play AFL football again, both medically and from his own perspective."
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=87712
The prosecution rests your honour;)
campbell
20 Jun 2008, 11:48
"The AFL Commission set down a process at the end of last year when he was suspended for 12 months that it would review his progress at the end of the 12 months and see if he is ready to play AFL football again, both medically and from his own perspective."
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=87712
The prosecution rests your honour;)
I thought he was already playing at a lower level somewhere, so I would assume medically and personally he has already passed that test?
notting18
20 Jun 2008, 11:58
I thought he was already playing at a lower level somewhere, so I would assume medically and personally he has already passed that test?
Can you try reading the article next time please. Firstly, you are mistaken in thinking Ben Cousins is currently playing AFL at any level (such a story would most likely have sent this site into meltdown:p).
Also, if you read Demetriou's quotes in the aforementioned article - Cousins is allowed to play at any level this year with approval of the respective non-AFL bodies. However, Andy D makes it very clear that even if Cousins plays VFL or similar, it will still be reviewed by the Commission as to whether he is suitable to play at the highest level.
Finally I am pretty sure the final date for VFL registrations is rapidly approaching, if it hasn't passed, so the odds of Cousins playing at any level this year are very low IMO