Race for 4th Spot by Cara_Cougar #16

[Cara_Cougar #16]

It has come to me that we are a top 4 side. We have the draw in our favour, and most importantly the skill to do it. Here is the ladder separated into "leagues." (The leauges are like the best teams, alright teams, etc..) The first leauge being the best

Best Leauge
Geelong
Hawthorn
Western Bulldogs

Challenging Leauge
Sydney
Adelaide
Brisbane
Collingwood

Shit/Can Cause Trouble Leauge
North Melbourne
St. Kilda
Carlton
Richmond
Port Adeliade
Essendon
Fremantle
West Coast
Melbourne

The Challenging leauge are all about 5-6 goals behind the Best Leauge. They are all looking for that final 4th spot, and I believe atm it's between Brisbane, Sydney and Collingwood. Adeliade I believe are a very good outfit but, the only team they have managed to beat in the 8 is North Melbourne - which may not even make the 8. Adelaide face Geelong, Collingwood, Port Adeliade and Sydney In their next 4 games. I think if they win 2 of these they are probably back in contention for top 4 but, I would tip them to only win 1, and even thats a danger game against Port.


Brisbane's remaining games that follow are:

Melbourne @ MCG WIN
Essendon @ Telstra Dome WIN
West Coast @ Gabba WIN
Richmond @ Telstra Dome WIN
North Melborne @ Carrara WIN
Hawthorn @ Aurora LOSS 65/35
Western Bulldogs @ Gabba LOSS 30/70
Carlton @ Gabba WIN
Sydney @ SCG LOSS 45/55

This would leave us 14 - 8 for the year with some losses that could easily be wins.


Sydney's run home is as follows:

Collingwood @ ANZ Stadium LOSS 45/55
Hawthorn @ MCG LOSS 35/75
Carlton @ Telstra Dome WIN
Adeliade @ SCG WIN
Western Bulldogs Manuka @ LOSS 40/60
Fremantle @ SCG WIN
Geelong @ ANZ Stadium LOSS 35/75
Collingwood @ Telstra Dome LOSS 45/55
Brisbane @ SCG WIN 45/55

This would leave Sydney 13 1/2 wins. I tipped them to Lose against Collingwood twice because recently, even with Collingwood not in fantastic form, they still manage to win over in Sydney.
Some of their previous clashes have been:

Collingwood 101 d Sydney 76 @ MCG
Collingwood 76 d Sydney 57 @ Telstra Stadium
Collingwood 95 d Sydney 82 @ Telstra Stadium
Sydney 77 d Collingwood 76 @ Telstra Stadium

This is one of my reasons for tipping them, yet most of Sydneys losses can again easily be wins. Round 22 could be the match of the round if Sydney either get an extra win or Brisbane get and unexpected loss. Could decide who gets into the top 4.


As For Adeliade here is there run home:

Geelong @ AAMI Stadium LOSS
Collingwood @ MCG LOSS
Port Adeliade @ AAMI Stadium WIN
Sydney @ SCG LOSS
Carlton @ AAMI Satdium WIN
Richmond @ AAMI Stadium WIN 55/45
Essendon @ Telstra Dome WIN 60/40
St.Kilda @ Telstra Dome WIN 60/40
Western Bulldogs @ AAMI Stadium LOSS 40/50

This would leave them at 13 - 9 probably a home final. Could win any game there, but could also lose any of those games as well. I don't really think they'll win any of those expected losses and I also don't think Brisbane will drop any expected wins so thats why I don't see them as a huge threat, still a threat, no doubt.

Here's Collingwood's Draw.

Westen Bulldogs (live) @ Telstra Dome LOSS 40/60
Sydney @ ANZ Stadium WIN 55/45
Adelaide @ MCG WIN 60/40
North Melbourne @ Telstra Dome WIN 55/45
Essendon @ MCG WIN 70/30
Hawthorn @ MCG LOSS
St. Kilda @ MCG WIN
Port Adeliade @ AAMI WIN 60/40
Sydney @ Telsta Dome WIN 55/45
Fremantle @ Subiaco WIN 60/40

This would leave the Pies at 15 - 8 and surprisingly higher than Sydney and Brisbane. If they can live up to recent clashes they could beat the Swans. Collingwood have been kind of inconsistent and I wouldn't be surprised if they lost any expected wins or won any expected losses.


Shit/Can Cause Trouble Leauge can be underestimated and can win against any team on their day. Even last placed Melbourne have troubled Hawthorn and Geelong so expect the unexpected. Some of these "flukey" wins they can produce can ruin some teams in the Challenging Leauge from at top 4 or home finals birth. The teams highlighted I believe are all contending for the final spot in the 8. I personally believe North Melbourne will make it. The Challenging Leauge are about a 5 - 6 goal better team than the highlighted teams. There is noo need to show their draw because one, I can't be stuffed and two, I don't think anyone really gives a shit to some teams that really aren't a threat.

[dmac_55]

I

As For Adeliade here is there run home:

Geelong @ AAMI Stadium LOSS
Collingwood @ MCG LOSS
Port Adeliade @ AAMI Stadium WIN
Sydney @ SCG LOSS
Carlton @ AAMI Satdium WIN
Richmond @ AAMI Stadium WIN 55/45
Essendon @ Telstra Dome WIN 60/40
St.Kilda @ Telstra Dome WIN 60/40
Western Bulldogs @ AAMI Stadium LOSS 40/50

This would leave them at 13 - 9 probably a home final. Could win any game there, but could also lose any of those games as well. I don't really think they'll win any of those expected losses and I also don't think Brisbane will drop any expected wins so thats why I don't see them as a huge threat, still a threat, no doubt.

Here's Collingwood's Draw.

Westen Bulldogs (live) @ Telstra Dome LOSS 40/60
Sydney @ ANZ Stadium WIN 55/45
Adelaide @ MCG LOSS 60/40
North Melbourne @ Telstra Dome WIN 55/45
Essendon @ MCG WIN 70/30
Hawthorn @ MCG LOSS
St. Kilda @ MCG WIN
Port Adeliade @ AAMI WIN 60/40
Sydney @ Telsta Dome WIN 55/45
Fremantle @ Subiaco WIN 60/40


t.

Great work just noticed though that you have both Adelaide and Collngwood pencilled in for a loss at the MCG. Personally i think Sydney will be in the top 4, have better form then all other teams competing.

Lions to finish 5th, due to poor percentage.. We cannot afford to drop games in the next 4 weeks

[Cara_Cougar #16]

Great work just noticed though that you have both Adelaide and Collngwood pencilled in for a loss at the MCG. Personally i think Sydney will be in the top 4, have better form then all other teams competing.

Lions to finish 5th, due to poor percentage.. We cannot afford to drop games in the next 4 weeks

Oops that was a typo. I'll fix it right up. Thanks for the pointer

[TheBrownDog]

At the very least, our position in the 8 got a little more secure. The Carlton and Collingwood losses were very helpful.

We are now in 6th position, a game clear of Collingwood in 6th and 6 points clear of the Kangaroos in 8th. Both the Roos and Pies have some tough games ahead. Its important we keep winning, and the Demons, Bombers and Eagles are all very winnable games ahead for us. We can't get complacent though.

We've got the Hawks, Bulldogs and Swans in the last 4 rounds, so we really need to have our finals spot sewn up by the end of round 18.

[ep2006]

Pencil in the West Coast game as a loss.

They beat their bunnies Adelaide by 50 and they'll do the same to their bunnies Brisbane as well. :cool:

[Cara_Cougar #16]

Pencil in the West Coast game as a loss.

They beat their bunnies Adelaide by 50 and they'll do the same to their bunnies Brisbane as well. :cool:

Were you trying to be funny?

I don't get the joke.

[TheBrownDog]

Pencil in the West Coast game as a loss.

They beat their bunnies Adelaide by 50 and they'll do the same to their bunnies Brisbane as well. :cool:

Couldn't beat us at Subi last year with King Judd, lets see how you go at the Gabba.

We were unlucky to get drawn to play you in round 1 this year when you hadn't realised how shit you were.

Forgive me if I have round 16 pencilled in as a winnable game.

[dtm06]

We'll get 5th or 6th i think. Sydney are in that top class. They just keep doing what they have to do. We are capable of finishing above adelaide and collingwood though.

[mpal6]

Pencil in the West Coast game as a loss.

They beat their bunnies Adelaide by 50 and they'll do the same to their bunnies Brisbane as well. :cool:

With Bradshaw back and Clark going great, we'll clip those feathers for sure @ Gabbatoir. Woosha has been successfully playing his cards and getting you guys close to Naitanui/Rich so dont worry about winning this time.

[luthor]

Sydney are now 2.5 wins ahead of us in 4th spot and even though they have a tough draw, I just can't see us winning 3 more games than them to shift them out of the top 4.

In fact, they way they are traveling at present, they may well have their sights set on a top 2 spot.

Geelong and the Dogs are absolutely flying so unless the Hawks fall over badly, I believe we really are pushing it uphill to finish any higher than 5th.

Right now, 5th looks the best case scenario to me but even 6th would get us a home final and a realistic chance to go into the second week.

Finishing 5th and our bunnies, the Pies 8th sounds good to me.:)

[lions_den]

Sydney are now 2.5 wins ahead of us in 4th spot and even though they have a tough draw, I just can't see us winning 3 more games than them to shift them out of the top 4.

In fact, they way they are traveling at present, they may well have their sights set on a top 2 spot.

Geelong and the Dogs are absolutely flying so unless the Hawks fall over badly, I believe we really are pushing it uphill to finish any higher than 5th.

Right now, 5th looks the best case scenario to me but even 6th would get us a home final and a realistic chance to go into the second week.

Finishing 5th and our bunnies, the Pies 8th sounds good to me.:)
Sounds good, but if we did lose it we wouldn't hear the end of it:p

[royboy2]

I have been putting in differing scores into the Ladder Predictor (http://afl.allthestats.com/misc/ladderpredict.php) I just can't realistically see us getting into the top 4, it'd be nice though

[mpal6]

I have been putting in differing scores into the Ladder Predictor (http://afl.allthestats.com/misc/ladderpredict.php) I just can't realistically see us getting into the top 4, it'd be nice though

All depends if Pies still have the wood on Sydney and us winning what we should. May come down to Rd 22 deciding 4th spot.

[mpal6]

All we can do is keep winning and definitely look @ boosting the % over the next 5 rounds.

[Duritz]

I actually hope we get 5th because the 8th spot looks to be the weak link. We get 5th and someone like STK or NORTH (or even Richmond!) sneak into 8th and we get a home final against them, that's the ideal. Have Collingwood in 7th or 6th duking it out with Adelaide in a slogfest.

Hey ep2006 - I've got the game against Geelong here on DVD, I can mail it to you if you like, free of charge, cos you're going so well.

The game I CANNOT wait for is Round 18, when Fremantle get to dismantle their BUNNIES yet again.

[leaper]

Sydney are now 2.5 wins ahead of us in 4th spot and even though they have a tough draw, I just can't see us winning 3 more games than them to shift them out of the top 4.

In fact, they way they are traveling at present, they may well have their sights set on a top 2 spot.

Geelong and the Dogs are absolutely flying so unless the Hawks fall over badly, I believe we really are pushing it uphill to finish any higher than 5th.

Right now, 5th looks the best case scenario to me but even 6th would get us a home final and a realistic chance to go into the second week.

Finishing 5th and our bunnies, the Pies 8th sounds good to me.:)

Sydney are only 1.5 games ahead of us, I can see us passing them in the next few weeks, although I don't see us maintaining it. I think we will finish 5th, and Sydney fourth.

[Duritz]

Sydney are only 1.5 games ahead of us, I can see us passing them in the next few weeks, although I don't see us maintaining it. I think we will finish 5th, and Sydney fourth.


Would be a magnificent thing if come Round 22 we were playing them for 4th spot... would be even more magnificent if we then won that game.

For some reason, we all assume the Swans will knock us off in Round 22. I know they are a bit of a bogey side for us, but by God that has to change sooner or later, surely!! Come on Roosy, you're an ex Roy, tank it!! :D

[luthor]

Sydney are only 1.5 games ahead of us


Oops....my bad:o

Still think it will be a tough task to dislodge them from the top 4 but you never know your luck in a big city.

[brisbanelioness]

For some reason, we all assume the Swans will knock us off in Round 22. I know they are a bit of a bogey side for us, but by God that has to change sooner or later, surely!!
Yeah, this time we should have Bradshaw and Charman fit to play. Last year we still drew with the Swans in Rd 20 (IIRC) so a win this time is very possible. Have faith.

[mpal6]

Yeah, this time we should have Bradshaw and Charman fit to play. Last year we still drew with the Swans in Rd 20 (IIRC) so a win this time is very possible. Have faith.

Yup. With a full strength squad we can stretch anyone. After last round, I've started believing in our newbies too, to stand up and deliver and when required.

Good signs all around. Keep them coming. :thumbsu::thumbsu:

[Vidman]

Warning. We are not as good as our last quarter against the Crows, we are also not as bad as our previous game against the Bulldogs. A week's a long time in football.

[mpal6]

Warning. We are not as good as our last quarter against the Crows, we are also not as bad as our previous game against the Bulldogs. A week's a long time in football.

True. As long as we have a bloody good crack and not roll over like we did against doggies, I will take it anyday.

Hawks and Geelong games were close and we were left ruing the missing personnel in our lineup. But the effort was there. Definitely. Against doggies the effort was missing. As Leigh mentioned thats the first game we were overwhelmed. We got to learn from our mistakes and come back stronger.

[ep2006]

I actually hope we get 5th because the 8th spot looks to be the weak link. We get 5th and someone like STK or NORTH (or even Richmond!) sneak into 8th and we get a home final against them, that's the ideal. Have Collingwood in 7th or 6th duking it out with Adelaide in a slogfest.

Hey ep2006 - I've got the game against Geelong here on DVD, I can mail it to you if you like, free of charge, cos you're going so well.

The game I CANNOT wait for is Round 18, when Fremantle get to dismantle their BUNNIES yet again.

In the round 18 game you're referring to, I'm sure both teams will be desperately trying to lose.