LLOYD VS FRANKLIN - The Damming Truth

[HFF_07]

was just looking through the hawks board and found a very interesting and damming statistic. here is the article that brought up the debate, By Geoff Poulter:


Geoff McClure
June 26, 2008
SOMETIMES we get blinded with statistics, a lot of which are relevant, some of which don't matter a toss. And occasionally there are numbers that … well, are damn complicated but, if you have a purpose in mind, can tell quite a story. And an example of the latter bobbed up on the BomberBlitz fan site this week (and were yesterday ratified by the experts, the people at Champion Data) which explain, in mathematical terms at least, how much more effective Essendon captain, Matthew Lloyd (32 goals) has been this season when you compare him with the two blokes who sit atop the AFL goalkicking list — Hawthorn's Lance Franklin (61 goals) and Carlton's Brendan Fevola (57 goals). It is, you see, all to do with the opportunities the three players have been getting combined with their accuracy when shooting for goal. It goes something like this:

TARGETTED inside 50 — Fevola: 203 (35% of team's total), Franklin: 179 (31%), Lloyd: 83 (16%). Which means Lloyd has been getting less than half the amount of delivery than that of the other two.

GOALS from those opportunities — Fevola: 57 from 203 (one goal for every 3.56); Franklin: 61 from 179 (2.93); Lloyd: 32 from 83 (2.59).

COUPLE that with accuracy — Fevola: 57 goals 28 behinds (67.1%); Franklin: 61.47 (56.5.%); Lloyd: 32.9 (78.0%).

ANALYSIS — All of which means that if deadeye-dick Lloyd had had that same delivery as Franklin at Hawthorn (179 inside 50s at 2.59 goal efficiency) he would have now scored 69 goals, and with the same delivery as Fevola at Carlton (203 inside 50s at 2.59) he would now have 78 goals.

Oh well, don't know what the Blues and Hawks would think of swapping their respective spearheads for Lloyd but it's certainly some food for thought.

now think abou, has lloyd been that bad, no, we are finding other ways to goal now.

[Wahooti Fandango]

This was posted by BlackBomber on BomberBlitz a few days back. A cracking read.

[HFF_07]

my apologies, was unaware of this.

[Lance Uppercut]

what's damning is your spelling of damming.

It's a fun curiosity, but it means ____ all in the greater scheme of things. Lloyd hasn't been brilliant this year; barring the first and last couple of games of the year; whereas the other two are leading the Coleman.

This stat, whilst amusing, smacks to me of tryhardosity - it's a pissing contest, a big dick-off.

Lloyd is Lloyd, the others have a long way to go before they have a better career than him; let's just be happy with that hey

[Fortress Hawk]

was just looking through the hawks board and found a very interesting and damming statistic. here is the article that brought up the debate, By Geoff Poulter:


Geoff McClure
June 26, 2008
SOMETIMES we get blinded with statistics, a lot of which are relevant, some of which don't matter a toss. And occasionally there are numbers that … well, are damn complicated but, if you have a purpose in mind, can tell quite a story. And an example of the latter bobbed up on the BomberBlitz fan site this week (and were yesterday ratified by the experts, the people at Champion Data) which explain, in mathematical terms at least, how much more effective Essendon captain, Matthew Lloyd (32 goals) has been this season when you compare him with the two blokes who sit atop the AFL goalkicking list — Hawthorn's Lance Franklin (61 goals) and Carlton's Brendan Fevola (57 goals). It is, you see, all to do with the opportunities the three players have been getting combined with their accuracy when shooting for goal. It goes something like this:

TARGETTED inside 50 — Fevola: 203 (35% of team's total), Franklin: 179 (31%), Lloyd: 83 (16%). Which means Lloyd has been getting less than half the amount of delivery than that of the other two.

GOALS from those opportunities — Fevola: 57 from 203 (one goal for every 3.56); Franklin: 61 from 179 (2.93); Lloyd: 32 from 83 (2.59).

COUPLE that with accuracy — Fevola: 57 goals 28 behinds (67.1%); Franklin: 61.47 (56.5.%); Lloyd: 32.9 (78.0%).

ANALYSIS — All of which means that if deadeye-dick Lloyd had had that same delivery as Franklin at Hawthorn (179 inside 50s at 2.59 goal efficiency) he would have now scored 69 goals, and with the same delivery as Fevola at Carlton (203 inside 50s at 2.59) he would now have 78 goals.

Oh well, don't know what the Blues and Hawks would think of swapping their respective spearheads for Lloyd but it's certainly some food for thought.

now think abou, has lloyd been that bad, no, we are finding other ways to goal now.

HAHAHAHAHA your right loyd is better!
So does that mean if we take a first season player that has had 3 shots on goal and kicked 3 at %100 efficency it will mean he is better then lloyd? Stats are so overratted!

[Ludwig van Bertstare]

HAHAHAHAHA your right loyd is better!
So does that mean if we take a first season player that has had 3 shots on goal and kicked 3 at %100 efficency it will mean he is better then lloyd? Stats are so overratted!

That's stupid reasoning and you know it.

[dave_27]

a little off topic but is anyone else not surprised Franklin has kicked ---- all since the essendon game.

[Big Blow Hard]

PFFT. YOu can use stats to prove anything!

8 out of 10 people know that! :cool:

[Big Blow Hard]

a little off topic but is anyone else not surprised Franklin has kicked ---- all since the essendon game.

Why, are you suggesting we have played him out of form, as opposed to our usual way of playing opposing stars into form?

[james_omahoney]

PFFT. YOu can use stats to prove anything!

8 out of 10 people know that! :cool:


HAHAHAHAHA your right loyd is better!
So does that mean if we take a first season player that has had 3 shots on goal and kicked 3 at %100 efficency it will mean he is better then lloyd? Stats are so overratted!

Rather than just saying 'stats are shit' (is this claim based on any stats?), why not attempt to back yourself up and tell us what area these stats fail in. I'm genuinely interested because they seem fairly solid to me, but I'm open to suggestion and criticisms. Is it that goal-kicking effectiveness diminishes as opportunities increase (don't have to work as hard for them)?

Or you could just remain complete muppets...:thumbsd:

[Big Blow Hard]

Rather than just saying 'stats are shit' (is this claim based on any stats?), why not attempt to back yourself up and tell us what area these stats fail in. I'm genuinely interested because they seem fairly solid to me, but I'm open to suggestion and criticisms. Is it that goal-kicking effectiveness diminishes as opportunities increase (don't have to work as hard for them)?

Or you could just remain complete muppets...:thumbsd:

Ok, seeing your open for criticism..

1> Don't start labelling people muppets, or noone will give two hoots what you have to say, they will just dismiss anything you say as the ramblings of a complete tosser, not worthy of their time.

2> Statistics can be used and manipulated to find favourable arguments for and against. For the positive stats on Lloyd, counter it with the stats of times he has let himself down. I think Lloyd has been ok, for the amount and quality of delivery he gets. But maybe look at the reasons he has not been getting it delivered as much. ie, other options, not leading as well as he used to so kicker goes for another target etc.

3> My statement of stats can be used to prove anything, 8 out 0f ten people know that, is along the lines of a quote by the great man Homer J Simpson, so it must be right.:p


But, it could be as simple as Lloyd is and always has been one of the most reliable kicks at goal in the competition. He is making the most of his limited oppurtunities.

[BacharHouli_43]

Unfortunately, truth is that fevola and buddy usually have more than one opponent in many marking contests, teams are less concerned with lloyd on the lead or 1 on 1. Having said that, Lloyd has been better than what some ppl have given him credit for.

[james_omahoney]

But maybe look at the reasons he has not been getting it delivered as much. ie, other options, not leading as well as he used to so kicker goes for another target etc.



good thats what you should have said the first time round ;) instead of adding nothing.

[WN123]

Unfortunately, truth is that fevola and buddy usually have more than one opponent in many marking contests, teams are less concerned with lloyd on the lead or 1 on 1. Having said that, Lloyd has been better than what some ppl have given him credit for.

Sorry but I disagree. From what I have seen Buddy and Fev are more likely to be one out ,either because they are quicker on the lead, or because of the better quality delivery they are getting.
Lets be honest Lloyd is a lot slower than he used to be and is alway under pressure in the marking contests; and lets be satisfied that he is finding new ways to contribute to the team beyond being a mark and kick full forward; and hope he can keep it up.

[Phat Toni]

HAHAHAHAHA your right loyd is better!
So does that mean if we take a first season player that has had 3 shots on goal and kicked 3 at %100 efficency it will mean he is better then lloyd? Stats are so overratted!

Only stats that matter:
Lloyd 1 Premiership, 3 Coleman’s, 5 times all australian
Fev 0 Premierships, 1 Coleman, 1 All Australian
Buddy 0 Premierships, 0 Coleman’s, 0 All Australians

You are right on one thing, stats can be overrated but show some respect where respect is due because ATM Buddy has a long way to go!

[Simon_Nesbit]

Fevola is the target 35% of the time (203/580) and has kicked 57.28 (370) out of 1263 (29%). He gets a scoring shot 42% of the time he is targetted.

Franklin is the target 31% of the time (179/577) and has kicked 61.47 (413) out of 1442 (28.6%). He gets a scoring shot 60% of the time he is targetted.

Lloyd is the target 16% of the time (83/518) and has kicked 32.9 (201) out of 1204 (17%). He gets a scoring shot 49% of the time he is targetted.

What can you take from this?

Well Franklin is the most effective at converting entries to shots. His accuracy lets him down, but he takes shots others can't.
Lloyd is the most accurate. He is efficient in what he does, but doesn't do enough.
Fevola gets the most contests in his direction. He lacks support of others.

Whether those assumptions are based on team directions or individual player characteristics is entirely up to perception (unless we have any senior coaches wishing to leak their internal discussions on a public forum).

Is it possible Lloyd is spending more time up the ground? Certainly the last two games I've seen he's been up around the middle (and in defence!) rather than stationary at FF. That would explain the low target %.

You could quite strongly argue that Essendon are under-utilising Lloyd, only looking for him when he is clear, rather than being a genuine focal point. Certainly it's more common for Franklin to have 2 (3, even 4) players surrounding him at contests - Fevola and Lloyd not so much so.

It would be interesting to compare Lloyd's stats to other "second fiddle" forwards (Roughead, J.Brown, not too many more). I know we (Hawthorn) tend to split the rest of our targets pretty evenly with about 15% to Roughy, 15% to Williams and the rest amongst everyone else.

[Big Blow Hard]

good thats what you should have said the first time round ;) instead of adding nothing.

I did add something, whimsical satire!

[Goldhawk]

Well you have your Lloyd and we'll keep Buddy because Lloyd's career is coming to an end, and Buddy's only beginning his.

[DarthAnnihl8or]

Well you have your Lloyd and we'll keep Buddy because Lloyd's career is coming to an end, and Buddy's only beginning his.

Deal. I hope Buddy stays loyal like Lloyd has and doesn't take the big payday to the Gold Coast or stuff up out of footy too much.......more.

[BomberGal]

Well you have your Lloyd and we'll keep Buddy because Lloyd's career is coming to an end, and Buddy's only beginning his.

Well, a Hawthorn supporter with half a brain. :thumbsu:

[Impromptu]

I heard on Nova FM (Melbourne), that Franklin had his boots auctioned for a charity and because it was too low, Franklin bought it himself and put it on Ebay. Apparently he was insulted by the price.

Hawthorn is a better outfit than Essendong (this year), hence of course Franklin gets more goals and gets better delivery. Lloyd can only make the best of what is given to him.

Give you an example. The reason why Fevolenko is doing this year is because of Judd and Nick Stevans. It is no coincidence. Hence, Lloyd has a disadvantage this year with a young team and without Lucas for most of the year.

[The Donners]

HAHAHAHAHA your right loyd is better!
So does that mean if we take a first season player that has had 3 shots on goal and kicked 3 at %100 efficency it will mean he is better then lloyd? Stats are so overratted!

Yeah I see your point, take 16 premierships for instance and put it up against 9 premierships... it means FA! :rolleyes:

Stats are overrated, no qualms from me!

[tazhawk]

a little off topic but is anyone else not surprised Franklin has kicked ---- all since the essendon game.

I dont know about that after all he kicked 5 goald on Friday night.

You are right about the other thing though........... Buddy loves bending Essendon over.

[centurion]

I dont know about that after all he kicked 5 goald on Friday night.

You are right about the other thing though........... Buddy loves bending Essendon over.

That explains it, Franklin is gay. :p

[mxett]

Lloyd


averages 3.5 goals a game, with only 0.9 frees for a game.
Theoretically, if he kicks a goal from each of those "gift" frees he would get roughly 25% of his goals directly from frees.
Wow, a quarter of his goals directly from the umpires. No wonder you all hate him. No wonder he has kicked SO MANY GOALS. So many umpiring assists. There's your proof, he really is crap, just unfairly favoured, right?


Buddy (the goldern child, best player ever, right?)


averages a lowly 2.7 goals a game ( :D ), and gets 0.8 frees for a game. That works out to be about 2 less frees for an entire season than Lloyd.
Theoretically, if Buddy kicks a goal from each of those frees he would get roughly 30% of his goals directly from frees.

Wait a second, is that right? Buddy gets a greater proportion of his goals from frees than Lloyd? :eek:

How is that possible? Is it actually possible that Buddy is a protected species and is far more favoured by the umpires than Lloyd. :eek:

Hmmmm I can see why they all hate Lloyd so much.

[Sqwaking Hawk]

Lloyd just doesn't have it anymore. He was once a 100 goal a year player, no longer, just have to face up to it, Buddy is.

Oh, here are some other stats I found about Lloyd's struggles since 2005 due to injury and well ineptness.
http://stats.rleague.com/afl/stats/players/M/Matthew_Lloyd0.html (http://www.internetisseriousbusiness.com)

[Smyth94]

Lloyd just doesn't have it anymore. He was once a 100 goal a year player, no longer, just have to face up to it, Buddy is.

Oh, here are some other stats I found about Lloyd's struggles since 2005 due to injury and well ineptness.
http://stats.rleague.com/afl/stats/players/M/Matthew_Lloyd0.html (http://www.internetisseriousbusiness.com)


Its no secret that since 2005 Lloyd has been struck down by injury and hasn't been able to compete like he used to - he will still kick his 50-60 goals a year.

[Sqwaking Hawk]

Its no secret that since 2005 Lloyd has been struck down by injury and hasn't been able to compete like he used to - he will still kick his 50-60 goals a year.Good to see some sense :D

[loopy_cam]

As opposed to who?