Ladder after Round 14

[Kildonan]

Team P W D L For Agst %age Pts
Geelong 14 13 0 1 1632 1107 147.42 52
W. Bulldogs 14 12 1 1 1717 1287 133.41 50
Hawthorn 14 12 0 2 1568 1213 129.26 48
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Sydney 14 9 1 4 1356 1036 130.88 38
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Collingwood 14 8 0 6 1546 1295 119.38 32
Adelaide 14 8 0 6 1332 1221 109.09 32
Brisbane 14 8 0 6 1434 1351 106.14 32
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St Kilda 14 7 0 7 1264 1299 97.30 28
Carlton 14 7 0 7 1381 1447 95.43 28
Kangaroos 14 6 1 7 1310 1394 93.97 26
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Richmond 14 5 1 8 1404 1538 91.28 22
Essendon 14 5 0 9 1299 1654 78.53 20
Port Adelaide 14 4 0 10 1340 1461 91.71 16
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Fremantle 14 2 0 12 1230 1366 90.04 8
West Coast 14 2 0 12 1057 1589 66.51 8
Melbourne 14 2 0 12 1107 1719 64.39 8


Groups of three:

The top three look set to complete the season together - the order may change but the top three clubs will remain the same.

Sydney look set to capture the fourth spot. They are only slightly at risk of not making the top 4.

The next three hold a points and percentage advantage to staying in the eight. They are all good chances to make it but none are certainties.

The next three, St Kilda, Carlton and the Kangaroos are fighting for what may be the last remaining spot in the eight.

St Kilda has already beaten both of the other teams fighting for this spot, this year.

The Carlton - St Kilda match looms as the second eight point match in a row that St Kilda must win in order to give themselves a real chance at finals.

We can sit back and hope that one or the other teams start to weaken and lose a few matches - or we can be pro-active and win the must-win matches and grab our chances with two hands.

Carlton's run home: 1 - 3 wins
Round 15 11 Jul St Kilda MCG - 50:50
Round 16 20 Jul Sydney Telstra Dome - L
Round 17 27 Jul Western Bulldogs Telstra Dome - L
Round 18 2 Aug Adelaide Football Park - L
Round 19 9 Aug Port Adelaide Telstra Dome - W
Round 20 17 Aug North Melbourne Telstra Dome - 50:50
Round 21 23 Aug Brisbane Gabba - L
Round 22 30 Aug Hawthorn Telstra Dome - L

It is quite reasonable to predict that Carlton will not win another match this season.
1 x likely win, 5 x likely losses, 2 x 50:50 matches

Kangaroos run home: 3 - 6 wins
Round 15 12 Jul Port Adelaide Football Park - W
Round 16 18 Jul Collingwood Telstra Dome - 50:50
Round 17 27 Jul Melbourne MCG - W
Round 18 2 Aug Brisbane Carrara - 50:50
Round 19 10 Aug Western Bulldogs Telstra Dome - L
Round 20 17 Aug Carlton Telstra Dome - 50:50
Round 21 24 Aug Geelong Skilled Stadium - L
Round 22 30 Aug Port Adelaide MCG - W

3 x likely wins, 2 x likely losses, 3 x 50:50 matches

The Saints run home: 2 - 7 wins
Round 15 11 Jul Carlton MCG - 50:50
Round 16 19 Jul Hawthorn Telstra Dome - L
Round 17 26 Jul West Coast Subiaco Oval - 50:50
Round 18 3 Aug Port Adelaide Telstra Dome - W
Round 19 9 Aug Collingwood MCG - 50:50
Round 20 17 Aug Fremantle Subiaco Oval - 50:50
Round 21 24 Aug Adelaide Telstra Dome - 50:50
Round 22 31 Aug Essendon Telstra Dome - W

2 x likely wins, 1 x likely loss, 5 x 50:50 matches

I originally pencilled in 3 likely wins (Carlton, Port and Essendon). All are some risk and while history shows that we've won the last 10 against Carlton, they're a much better chance of beating us than that history suggests, similarly Port have a wonderful record against us, but we rarely have met them with a strong team at Telstra Dome. We have Essendon as our final opponent for the H&A season - they won't be playing finals - but will be out to prove that they are close.

I've put a Loss next to the Hawks game - but I personally think we can win that one - we match up quite well against the Hawks.

This leaves 4 games with question marks. 2 of these are at Subiaco but against weaker opposition than we've met there in a long time. We should win them ... but our interstate record is poor.

The other 2 games are Collingwood at the MCG and Adelaide at the Telstra Dome. These are the matches that will probably prove season defining. If we win both we should play finals and come into them with some form. If we capitulate in these matches then it suggests to me that we do need another personnel review.

[Persevering Saint]

I was doing the exact same type of analysis with my dad straight after the Pies win (bummer, that...).

I think you're spot on with your win-loss breakdowns. That's going to mean Blues finish with about 9 games, Kangas with 9.5. We should also consider Richmond, who are 5.5 wins now, but have 4 definitely winnable games (WC r15, Dons r16, the Heave-ho r21, and the Dees r22) which would take them to 9.5.

What that means is we may only need to actually win 11 or 12 to seal the 8th spot, not 13 as has been more commonly the case in the recent past. That's gotta be good, especially considering we've only got 3 real "likelys".

Personally, what that tells me is that we actually should stop focussing just on finishing in the 8, and try to go instead for 6th so we can force the Crows to come to the Dome away from Footy Park. If we do that, we'll get into a great position, and being in the 8 will take care of itself.

[Kildonan]

The group of three above us are difficult to predict

Adelaide: 3 - 6 wins
Round 15 12 Jul Collingwood MCG - 50:50
Round 16 20 Jul Port Adelaide Football Park - 50:50
Round 17 26 Jul Sydney SCG - L
Round 18 2 Aug Carlton Football Park - W
Round 19 10 Aug Richmond Football Park - W
Round 20 16 Aug Essendon Telstra Dome - W
Round 21 24 Aug St Kilda Telstra Dome - 50:50
Round 22 30 Aug Western Bulldogs Football Park - L

3 x likely wins, 2 x likely losses and 3 x 50:50 matches.
Adelaide come into the business end of the season with soft form after looking the goods early.

Brisbane: 4 - 7 wins
Round 15 12 Jul Essendon Telstra Dome - W
Round 16 19 Jul West Coast Gabba - W
Round 17 26 Jul Richmond Telstra Dome - W
Round 18 2 Aug North Melbourne Carrara - 50:50
Round 19 9 Aug Hawthorn York Park - L
Round 20 16 Aug Western Bulldogs Gabba - 50:50
Round 21 23 Aug Carlton Gabba - W
Round 22 30 Aug Sydney SCG - 50:50

4 x likely wins, 1 x likely losses, 3 x 50:50 matches
Brisbane will have been stung by the Melbourne loss and should play by the numbers from now on.

Collingwood: 1 - 6 wins
Round 15 12 Jul Adelaide MCG - 50:50
Round 16 18 Jul North Melbourne Telstra Dome - 50:50
Round 17 26 Jul Essendon MCG - W
Round 18 1 Aug Hawthorn MCG - L
Round 19 9 Aug St Kilda MCG - 50:50
Round 20 15 Aug Port Adelaide Football Park - 50:50
Round 21 23 Aug Sydney Telstra Dome - L
Round 22 29 Aug Fremantle Subiaco Oval - 50:50

1 x likely win, 2 x likely losses, 5 x 50:50 matches

[Kildonan]

...We should also consider Richmond, who are 5.5 wins now, but have 4 definitely winnable games (WC r15, Dons r16, the Heave-ho r21, and the Dees r22) which would take them to 9.5.


Richmond: 3 - 5 wins
Round 15 13 Jul West Coast Subiaco Oval - 50:50
Round 16 19 Jul Essendon MCG - W
Round 17 26 Jul Brisbane Telstra Dome - 50:50
Round 18 2 Aug Geelong Telstra Dome - L
Round 19 10 Aug Adelaide Football Park - L
Round 20 17 Aug Hawthorn MCG - L
Round 21 23 Aug Fremantle MCG - W
Round 22 31 Aug Melbourne MCG - W

3 x likely wins, 3 x likely losses, 2 x 50:50 matches

[Kildonan]

The relevent part of the ladder to us: 5 - 11

Using the above predicted results (in red after club name), I have created a ladder which ignores percentage and just displays where my predictions might see each club finish in the 2008 H&A season.

Club Worst Best
5 Brisbane 12 0 10 48 - 15 0 8 60
6 Adelaide 11 0 11 44 - 14 0 8 56
7 Collingwood 9 0 13 36 - 14 0 8 56
8 St Kilda 9 0 13 36 - 14 0 8 56
9 Kangaroos 9 1 12 38 - 12 1 9 50
10 Richmond 8 1 13 34 - 10 1 11 42
11 Carlton 8 0 14 32 - 10 0 12 40


St Kilda can finish 5th, but the odds are slim, they have a much better chance of finishing 6th but all is just guesswork until the results are in.

[Persevering Saint]

That 9th of August game against the Pies is going to be an absolutely CRACKER!!!!!!

[Armitage2Riewoldt]

At the G as well. Some massive games coming up. Carlton at the G, Pies at the G, Dons at the Dome in the last round. Should get some huge crowds.

[CHBench]

Got this out of the Herald Sun.

The Contenders:

One point is awarded when a team plays top team Geelong, two against second-placed Western Bulldogs and so on down to 16 points for bottom placed Melbourne. The higher the score, the technically easier a team's run home.

Easiest to Hardest

St Kilda - 77pts
Geelong - 75
Collingwood - 70
Brisbane Lions - 66
Kangaroos - 66
Western Bulldogs - 65
Adelaide - 64
Hawthorn - 60
Carlton - 53
Sydney - 47

We play five of the bottom eight sides.
Carlton face a tough 4 weeks with St Kilda, Sydney, Bulldogs and Adelaide.
Who knows with the Roos they play Port, Collingwood, Melbourne and Brisbane. They could win all 4 but could just as easily lose all of them.

It's all up to us.

[Persevering Saint]

That's a VERY helpful stat! Richmond, who is not included there, has 74 - but of course has a few more games to win to get in the mix.

[Kildonan]

SYDNEY: 2 - 7 wins
Round 15 13 Jul Hawthorn MCG - 50:50
Round 16 20 Jul Carlton Telstra Dome - W
Round 17 26 Jul Adelaide SCG - 50:50
Round 18 3 Aug Western Bulldogs Manuka Oval - 50:50
Round 19 9 Aug Fremantle SCG - W
Round 20 16 Aug Geelong Stadium Australia - L
Round 21 23 Aug Collingwood Telstra Dome - 50:50
Round 22 30 Aug Brisbane SCG - 50:50

That's 2 x likely wins, 1 x likely loss, and 5 x 50:50 matches

[Kildonan]

The relevent part of the ladder to us: 4 - 11

Using the above predicted results (in red after club name), I have created a ladder which ignores percentage and just displays where my predictions might see each club finish in the 2008 H&A season.

Club Worst Best
4 Sydney 11 1 10 46 - 16 1 5 66
5 Brisbane 12 0 10 48 - 15 0 7 60
6 Adelaide 11 0 11 44 - 14 0 8 56
7 Collingwood 9 0 13 36 - 14 0 8 56
8 St Kilda 9 0 13 36 - 14 0 8 56
9 Kangaroos 9 1 12 38 - 12 1 9 50
10 Richmond 8 1 13 34 - 10 1 11 42
11 Carlton 8 0 14 32 - 10 0 12 40


St Kilda can finish 5th, but the odds are slim, they have a much better chance of finishing 6th but all is just guesswork until the results are in.

[Rough_Edges]

Only 10 points of 4th spot (--)

[Mitchell Madness]

You guys have a chance against us, the way i see it

If hawthorn of first 8-9 rounds turn up, and saints of the period turn up, hawks win

if Hawks of last few rounds turn up, and saints of the same period, Saints win

if Hawks of first 8-9 rounds turn up, and saints of last few rounds turn up, hawks win....


gonna be a beauty either way. Hope Hawks win, not for bragging rights, but because i will be attending with 3 st kilda supporters:)