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View Full Version : How to Beat Adelaide - Match Preview v Crows


DaVe86
9 Jul 2008, 12:38
I've been doing this weekly on Nicks, thought I'd put it here as well. Just a preview i write every week with matchups, selection dilemmas and in depth analysis on the side we are playing.




Collingwood proved last week that certain sides simply have the wood over others. Game plans, matchups, venues and even individual players just seem to suit certain sides.

I have always thought Adelaide is one of these teams. I considered our record against Adelaide to be very strong. However, when looking up previous records, I have come to realise that Adelaide have in fact won 5 of our last 6 matches. Our 1 win since 2004 came in a tight encounter at AAMI stadium last year.

Thankfully, none of these matches were at the MCG. In fact, we have not played Adelaide at the MCG since before 2003. Adelaide play the Dome very well and are able to completely shut games down. They struggle more on the bigger and wider MCG.

In fact, the Crows have not beat Collingwood at the MCG in the last decade. So each team go into this game with cause for optimism.

The last encounter was round 22 last year at the Dome…effectively a dead rubber for us as top 4 was out of range and we could not really move from our position on the ladder irrespective of the result. However, we did lead for much of the game until the Crows ran away with the match.


Analysing this game, I have confidence that we can really trouble Adelaide. The Crows have not beaten any quality sides this year. Geelong proved last week that they are far from a top 4 side and have many weaknesses.

Depth is one such weakness. I think Collingwood’s depth really proved the difference last week against the Swans who had too many fringe players along for the ride. The Crows were the same against Geelong.

Ultimately, I feel Adelaide play a pretty similar style to Sydney. They will hold the ball as long as they need, push back into defence hard and choke up a game. This style of game should suit us. They tried to play the ball on last week but failed due to their lack of a key marking presence up forward. Their reliance on a first year player to shoulder the Full Forward role is a real worry.


On the injury front, Andrew McLeod is likely to miss a few more games, whilst the Pies will go the rest of the year without Rocca. Some concern must surround Davis who looked very proppy on the weekend. Unlucky midfielder Brent Reilly will also miss a month of footy. McLeod and Reilly are 2 big omissions for the Crows as they break the lines and dispose the ball well.

Our record over the last 4 years suprises me because I think we match up very well against the Crows.

At the selection table:

Malthouse may be forced to make a big decision on a defender. Adelaide lack any real tall marking targets up forward, whilst we had 5 key defenders in the match against Sydney.

I think Malthouse will be keen to bring Wellingham back into the team if fit. He has added pace and flare to the midfield. Goldsack’s name has been thrown around as a possible omission, however it is important to note that he played as a defensive forward last week against Malceski, Barry and Kenelly and did very well. His tackling pressure was enormous and was instrumental in causing Sydney the difficulty they had moving the ball quick from defence.

I’d be very careful dropping Wakelin or Brown. I’d also be very careful bringing in Josh Fraser. I think Wood and Bryan are doing a fantastic job and their toughness is worrying teams. Bryan’s footskills around the ground have improved 100%, as has his efforts and workrate. Bryan is spotting up 50 metre targets on the chest. Wood is taking contested marks and winning hitouts. I think Josh should be rested until near finals to get that knee right whilst we get valuable gametime into these 2 ruckmen. Adelaide have a weak ruck division without Hudson or Biglands anyway. Maric is a decent prospect, but Tippet has been forced to makeshift ruck, as well as hold up the forward line. Bryan and Wood should intimidate…perhaps more so than an injured Fraser.

Remember also that Bryan kicked 3 goals in last years important win at AAMI stadium and was perhaps the matchwinner. Without Rocca, we could use Bryan in a similar role again.


Unless we decide to drop a defender (perhaps Goldsack simply based on matchups), or Leon Davis does not come up, I think we will go in unchanged. The one to come in if a change is made would be Wellingham if fit. Macaffer, Dawes and Isles are knocking on the door at reserve level as well. I think John Anthony was ok and deserves another go. He is hard at it and has clean hands. On a better surface, his kicking for goal should also improve. He is usually a lovely kick.

Matchups:

Defence:
Brown v Tippet – reckon this would be an exciting matchup. 2 young up and coming KPP’s. Brown played on the resting ruckman last week…so should be suited to Tippet. His agility may worry Wakelin a bit, so Brown’s extra closing speed may be beneficial. Would love to see this matchup eventuate.

Wakelin v (whoever Crows elect to play as a tall forward) – Last week the Crows tried Stevens unsuccessfully. They may try this again. Wakelin would be well suited. They also played Gill, but gave him very little gametime. If Gill plays forward, Wakelin should account for this spud easily. They may even elect to promote James Sellar from the reserves who was promising over off-season but has only played 1 match this year. They seem desperate for a tall. They may also swing a surprise and start Bock up forward as he did last year at times.

O’Brien v Burton – Tough matchup but I think Harry would be suited. Given Goldsack’s shut down roles last week, he may also be an option. Harry has enjoyed playing on smalls this year. Burton is not necessarily a small, but he is no Fevola. Harry’s strength and speed are a good match. Goldsack may be a touch skinny in a marking contest, but is also a great match.

Maxwell/Goldsack v Porplyzia – This guy is in All Australian form. He is one of my favourite players going around at the moment and is having his breakout year. Unfortunately, it seems his shoulder is restricting him. Last week, he was unable to push into the midfield. Tom Harley played on him all night and played him very well. The slow ball movement didn’t help, but in the past Craig has put Porplyzia into the midfield to get into the game. Last week surprisingly he did not. This surprised me because he is a great in and under clearance type player and considering the Crows were getting smashed in the midfield, it seemed an obvious move. He hurt his shoulder earlier in the year, and perhaps this is preventing him moving into the midfeld.

If so, we should treat him as a permanent forward, and Goldsack or Maxwell should have enough speed and beat him in the air. Porplyzia is a fantastic overhead mark, so playing a tall on him last week was a great move from the Geelong coach. We should be planning for Porplyzia as he is a very dangerous player and a match winner. he is kicking goals and winning 20+ disposals every week.

Heath Shaw v Goodwin – (When forward) – Similarly to his game against Brad Johnson, Heater would be well suited to Goodwin as well. Goodwin is unaccountable like Johnson and will bring Heath into the game. I think the best way to use Heath in the backline is to put him on a quality forward and let him get into the play. This is better than a tagger taking him to the goalsquare away from the action.

Goodwin will also play a lot in the midfield…probably rotating with Scott Thompson. Heath would also be the right matchup for Thompson if he goes forward.


Midfield:
Goodwin v Burns/O’Bree – I doubt we’ll tag Goodwin when he plays midfield. Goodwin started the year as a forward and was dominating, but has moved into the midfield. This is perhaps due to Reilly’s injury and the fact Porplyzia is playing as a stay at home forward. Last week he won 30+ disposals but was ineffective. A head to head matchup will probably eventuate similarly to the Kirk v Burns matchup last week.


R. Shaw v Thompson – Rhyce has been taking the best midfielders every week and beating them. Scott Thompson is now the Adelaide number 1 midfielder, and Rhyce will most likely go to him. Thompson has been totally tagged out of games in the last fortnight, so Rhyce’s speed should trouble him. The worry is when Thompson pushes forward. As I said earlier, I think Heath should take this matchup as Thompson is too good in the air for Rhyce. Adelaide has a number of rotations, so I think we’ll be using rotating matchups to counter.

Edwardes v Johnson – Tyson Edwardes I still believe is one of their most dangerous players. He is ageing, but was clearly the Crows best last week. Edwardes is another who will rotate between midfield and forward. Against the Cats, he played mostly midfield. Point is that we have to be cautious. Edwardes can take a game apart as he is very accurate on goal. Ben Johnson should have the pace.

The other possible matchups for Edwardes would be Marty Clarke. Mick has not been afraid to give Marty big jobs. Marty would be a great little matchup for Edwardes with his pace and guts. But I feel Edwardes smartness and experience would exploit Marty a bit. I feel the better option may be to use Marty on Douglas who is becoming a dangerous, but often wayward forward. Some close attention should be payed to Douglas.

The other option for Edwardes could be to attack him with either the out of form Pendlebury or Dale Thomas. Mick put Thomas onto guys like Bartel earlier in the year when he was out of form. Playing on a quality player allowed him to focus on someone else as opposed to having to get the ball for himself. Obviously, playing on the good players brings you around the ball and usually frees you up because they do not tag going the other way.

Playing Pendlebury on a quality Adelaide midfielder could be a clever option from Mick to spark Pendlebury into form.

Perhaps he could even be used on the young Knights who is becoming a big ball winner but is usually ineffective with is disposal.


Will be interesting to see if the Crows play Shirley and Massie. Last week, they were given the jobs on Ablett and Bartel. Both were forced to move. Bartel was too good for Shirley, whilst Massie was forced to go into the backline to play Steve Johnson from time to time. I don’t feel Massie was too bad, but I’m very surprised to still see him in an AFL outfit. This guy has been around for 13 years now so surely he is a bit past it. His kicking was awful. However, his defensive jobs on both Ablett and Johnson were commendable. He was probably one who didn’t get smashed by an opponent.

Shirley was once a premier tagger but has had his colours lowered this year. When analysing Collingwood, I’m sure the first 2 names that spring to mind are Didak and Swan. I think Massie and Shirley will get these jobs. Doughty is another tagging option for them.


Forward:

The Crows obviously have a great backline. They have many options to play on different opponents.

I think they’ll opt with Bock on Travis Cloke. Bock seems to be getting the big jobs on the versatile forwards lately. As Trav pushed up the ground last week, I think Bock will be the most suitable option over Rutten who prefers to stay at home.

Rutten might be a bit lost without Rocca there. Rutten has a terrific record against Rocca. This may leave him without a matchup. Rutten has played a lot of gametime without an opponent this year and is winning much more of the ball. Without Rocca, Rutten will most likely take whoever goes to Full Forward. That may be John Anthony, or it may be a resting Bryan or Wood. Given Bryan’s 3 goals last year, I doubt they’ll leave him unguarded.

If Anthony gets Rutten, he’ll be in for a tough night. The important thing is he leads hard up the ground, and tackles hard in the forward line. Rocca’s role has always been to bring the ball to ground. So he has to make sure that he does not allow his opponent to get a clear fist away. There has to be an honest marking contest every time. That’s when Davis, Thomas and Didak become handfuls.

Bassett will most likely go to Medhurst. He’s a good option for Medhurst sizewise. Again, I think the best thing for Medhurst to do is make Bassett accountable. Move up the field, take him away from his comfort zone. Basset is another Crow defender who enjoys zoning off his opponent and getting a lot of cheap marks.

There’s nothing I hate more than seeing the Adelaide defenders getting 25+ disposals each with 15 marks. They drop back and play the game on their terms.

Given our dangerous forward line, this should unsettle the crows. Didak, Medhurst, Thomas and Davis will each float into the midfield forcing their opponents with them. Our tackling pressure and accountability is also fantastic. We go man on man when necessary, a tactic which is probably the way to go against Adelaide. Each of our forwards has to get into the play and take their opponents with them. Crows defenders will also be aware of how dangerous our forwards are and will be forced to play accountable.


Johncock will most likely go onto Davis. Johncock is another who ‘poos’ around in the backline picking up loose possessions. He is in terrific form and again was one of the Crows better players in a humiliation last week.

Given Leon’s injury, and Johncock’s bigger frame, Davis may be in for a tough night. Again, the important thing is to make Johncock accountable. That will mean pushing through the midfield. it will also mean manning him up. Without McLeod, Johncock now becomes the Crows rebound guy. If he gets loose, a defensive forward will be necessary.

Mcleod is listed as indefinite on the injury list…many experts are saying 3-4. So I doubt his availability this week, although I am yet to hear official word. He usually dominates us.

The Crows might also opt to use Doughty on Didak. Doughty is an honest player. He played on Chapman last week with some success. Chapman was still good, but not dominant in a crushing victory.

Crows would feel they match up quite well against Collingwood, as I feel we match up well against them. Neill Craig tried to play attacking last week, but it was unsuccessful. They resorted back to chipping and made a mess of it when they had some run going. They bombed long to a nest of Cats and didn’t lower their eyes under pressure.

It will be interesting to see Craig’s instructions this week. Will they resort back to their natural game which is defensive? Sydney try this against us time and time again and fail. Craig has said that his gameplan will beat the weaker teams, but will fail against the strong teams. He believes they have to learn to be more attacking. He is spot on, but last week the Crows showed that without a tall forward line, they struggle to move the ball quickly. Burton and Porplyzia are the crucial 2 we have to stop.


What is also evident is that tackling pressure will hurt them. The Cats displayed the same level of intensity that we showed against them. If the Crows are trying to be more attacking, pressure will rush them. Accountability will force them to start chipping or kick to a contest where we have the height.

Looking forward to a tough struggle. Will probably be reasonably low scoring but it will be tight. Midfield is important, but defence just as crucial. Getting the Crows on the backfoot early is the name of the game. After a humiliation last week, they will come out firing early. A good start from us will plant the seed of doubt into their heads.

Another 8 point game for the Pies. A chance to put space between us and the competition, and get within a whisker of the Swans who have a tough match against the Hawks.

Pies by 15

DaVe out.

Pie eyed
9 Jul 2008, 13:31
Excellent appraisal.
Ever thought of a job in the footy media?

The Dawes
9 Jul 2008, 13:55
Comprehensive wrap up mate - very impressive.

The key for me is that the game is at the G not Telstra.

DaVe86
9 Jul 2008, 14:32
Comprehensive wrap up mate - very impressive.

The key for me is that the game is at the G not Telstra.

yer that changes everything. Although our past 4 years against the Crows is horrible, a lot of those games have been dead rubbers or round 1 clashes where we have gone in extremely undermanned or at the Dome.

I think our win last year is the best indicator of how we match up against the Crows. Bryan kicked 3, our midfield was on top and tackling pressure up.


That said, I have noticed lately that we get sucked very wide at the G. We love playing the wings...but at ANZ stadium you can play the wings but still be central. On the G, you can be sucked very very wide into no mans land.

Would like to see us attack the corridor a bit more against the Crows who will flood numbers back if we play too wide.

Jie_Hodge
9 Jul 2008, 14:56
Great analysis dave pretty much would agree with the lot.

One guy for them you didnt mention however in their midfiled/half foward is Vince, i think he has gotten under the guard of a lot of people i havent seen many adelaide games.

Im going more of my dreamteam as he has been in my dreamteam from round one, and he gets a lot of points (often over a hundred) so he must be getting a fair few possies.

He breaks the lines and carrys the ball and also is a good finisher who is usually amongst the goals, Adelaide like to use him becuase of this, disposal isnt great but more than handy. I think a bit of work might go into him, i would put a dangerous midfielder on him might be a Johnson/Clarke whoever doesnt which ever doesnt go to edwards as you suggest, to make sure he has in his mind that he must be accountable.

Capitalist
9 Jul 2008, 15:00
nice write up

if football was straight foward you would bring the game that beat Geelong and we wouldn't stand a chance, but its not always that simple.

Once again Adealides defence is going to be keeping us in the match for most of the game and the closeness of the result will be determined by the pressure put on the ball carrier moving forward.

If the Pies allow to much room and the delivery improves (and the forwards improve) then its going to be a match. But if the Pies pressure the ball carrier its going to be not so close.

Edit

Davis, Medhurst and Didak would the big worries for the AFC as well. Medhurst form has been bloody impressive and Didak is a freak so he is also fairly tough.

Also Massie in the system for 13 years ? I'm going to have to check that i didn't think he was that old.

Pies_10
9 Jul 2008, 15:02
Great write up i agree with The Dawes. The game is at the G so i reckon we will win by 30 without McLeod.

thatday
9 Jul 2008, 15:15
I am so much more confidant at the G than I am when we are at the Dome, although Adelaide havn't been shit at the G this year so it won't be as big a difference as some people are thinking. This sort of game worries me a bit, we should win but Adelaide will come out firing after losing 3 in a row so we have to withstand that. Bit nervous already.

DaVe86
9 Jul 2008, 15:58
Also Massie in the system for 13 years ? I'm going to have to check that i didn't think he was that old.

Thanks for the reply, i am only going off the top of my head...i can remember Massie been on the carlton list in the 90's...i was thinking he was actually on the list in 95...but I am not sure...but he has been around a while now.

Stone in sock
9 Jul 2008, 18:30
should win. that means a danger game i guess... :eek:

but would be livid if we lost.

Snag Breac
9 Jul 2008, 19:53
An interesting analysis, with plenty of food for thought. On balance, we're looking good. I hope Davis gets a rest so that he can recover fully. Wellingham deserves another chance.

Snoop Dog
9 Jul 2008, 20:10
Formline

Pies have been best described as an enigma this year. Pussies and Swans have been taken care of, respectable loss to Bullies on one side of the equation but losses to Carlton (x 2), last qtr fadeouts to North and the Lions have meant the Pies are fighting for the 8 as opposed to being entrenched in the top 4. With the Swans meeting the Hawks at the G this is one Collingwood must win to bring them into top 4 contention.

At Selection

Pies will be hoping that Fraser comes up this week but he does pose a selection conundrum for Pie selectors as Wood and Bryan have been terrific in previous weeks. Equally, Pies might be thinking the best way to exploit Crows back half of Stevens, Rutten, Bock and Basset is to go small and stretch them with their 'lead up' fwds. Notwithstanding, you play your best blokes and I say bring Fraser in for Goldsack.

Goldsack himself is a an interesting one. Last week he was preferred fwd to tag the player the Swans were trying to get loose. He did the job well reducing Barry and at times Mattners time and effectiveness. Would not be surprised if they used him on Bock if he does play.

What style will we see

I think it will be a battle of the mids. In my opinion the Crows have the advantage here but there fwds are struggling and so much will be expected of Goodwin, Porplyzia and Burton. If each can kick 3 then they will be on their way. Hence the key will be for us to restrict as much ball into the fwds and then make sure our backs can clear and rebound.

Our advantage is in the contested possession stakes and fwd entries so if we can be true to those stats you should see Collingwood start to get on top.

Key match ups

matchups aint easy in this game and the Crow fwd line needs some thought. Key danger is Burton and I would probably send OBrien to him who has been in excellent form lately. Might be a worry if they isolate him on the last line which is when OBrien struggles most. Wakes must get Tippett as he sets play up from the last line. Porlyzia should get Heath Shaw - Heath has been going to the better fwds lately to beat the tag and has done well. The problem then becomes Goodwin and I would probably aim Maxwell at him but thats a matchup the Crows would like. Lockyer or Clarke may also be used.

In the mids I would aim to have Rhyce go with Thompson whose the only one I would tag.

Keys are keeping Thompson, Porplyzia, Burton and Bocks run / set up from HB in check. They are the keys to Adelaide.

I think the Crows will really struggle with us up front. Craig has signalled his fwd set up is an issue so Bock may end up fwd but that would leave them without a natural match up for Cloke who loves the space and will probably run the other options off their feet.

Expect Shirley to go for Swan given his recent form but in the main we will probably back ourselves against the Crows midfield.

Whats worrying Mick

Just what mental state our blokes will come to the game with. Cats, Swans and Bullies have been our best efforts and he would be hoping for that formline

Whats worrying Neil

Kicking enough goals. In all probability it will take 15 goals for them to win and I think its been a while since the crows kicked that many (happy to be corrected).

The result

Look its always hard with these two clubs because there have been some super matches over the years and I expect this to be another good one. Crows have much to play for and are proud. They were 'pantsed' last week and will be out to get some respect. As I said Thompson, Bock, Burton and Porplyzia are the key to them.

Notwithstanding, I think the Pies will have to much advantage in the fwds and should get across the line by a goal or two.

PieLebo87
10 Jul 2008, 00:42
Wellingham In, Goldsack OUT.

Although it WAS dewy, he fumbled too much for the A grade, and needs to develop some form in the reserves.

Any other changes would be due to injuries we don't know about (IE. Davis - ankle)

Pie Legend
10 Jul 2008, 00:46
Great read Dave, keep up the good work:thumbsu:

daics cousin
10 Jul 2008, 13:02
The crows will come out hard,but your right about the our forward line,if our smaller forward line will create havoc and that should be the difference.
Pies by 15-25 if wet.
Pies by 35-50 if dry.

jasonwilde
10 Jul 2008, 15:11
Shit hot write-up buddy:thumbsu:
Love this site sometimes- even though there is plenty on Collingwood in the papers, some of you blokes go to the extremes (also love DTM's work) and for that, I am grateful.

That being said. I think Adelaide's defence is far too good. Thankfully, last week the Swans forgot how to score. We need Adelaide to do the same. As wonderful as some of our forwards have been at times they are really gonna be up against it. I still can't believe we are 5th with Pebbles, Reid and Rus out. All credit to the boys though.

I hope we can pull this one off. However, no walkover as many are suggesting.

DaVe86
10 Jul 2008, 15:20
no walkover by any means. Going to be really interesting to see the way the 2 teams lineup in the forward line. Both sides have question marks over their forward setup. Going to be important to adapt with whatever the crows do up forward.

Capitalist
10 Jul 2008, 15:47
Thanks for the reply, i am only going off the top of my head...i can remember Massie been on the carlton list in the 90's...i was thinking he was actually on the list in 95...but I am not sure...but he has been around a while now.

Just checked - 1997 was his Drafted year so he is 28 this year - I never would have guessed.

It seems the selection table will have a big influence with this match with a number of Crows looking shaky through injury. Craigy has publically said (well on the news anyhow) that Taylor Walker is not under consideration but that maybe smoke and mirrors considering our forward line is ####ed to say the least.


The replacement for Reilly is going to the most interesting.

CENTERMAN
10 Jul 2008, 16:10
Nice read Dave.
I would think Goodwin and Burton would both need to kick bags against our current form for them to have a chance. UNLESS they shut us down with flooding, i doubt it. Last week Burton made good position and could have kicked 6 if his team mates could have kicked to him properly, so he'd be my main target. Rhyse on Thommo.

Pies by 40...

brspdt201013
10 Jul 2008, 16:27
Anyone know if Dawes has gotten over his injury from last week? If he has I think we should throw him in the AFL and see what he's got!!

DaVe86
10 Jul 2008, 20:01
glad we didnt make any rash moves with someone like Dawes etc. Adelaide have a great backline and any new kid wouldve had no impact. Atleast ANthony has 2 games behind him and can play back or forward if necessary.


Interesting selection by the Crows. Perhaps they are looking to play a resting ruckman forward...if so Wakelin gets that job.

Campbell is the replacement for Reilly...interesting selection.

Kirk Hinrich #12
10 Jul 2008, 20:22
Good write up I just wrote my thoughts on the Team thread but here it is after I saw this thread.




I think for the first time in a long time Josh will really have to earn his spot back and with Bryan and Wood playing well its best to make sure he is 100%.

Bock will take Cloke and try and run off of him and will be supported well by Bassett and Rutten. I would expect Goldsack to do a forward defensive shut down job on Bock and force Rutten one on one with Trav and that could work well for us.
Lockyer might also play forward on Johncock (aka the human turn over). Basset will go to Medders IMO and Massie on Didak. I would not be suprised if Craig uses Symes as a Heath Shaw stopper or that job may go to a Doughty or even Massie.

The other end of the ground I see Harry have first crack at one of my favourite players in Porplyzia and will need to be right on him. Wakes may take Burton but I expect him to take Tippett which is dangerous for us as Tippett will be to strong and tall for Wakes. The other mid to small players for the crows can be a worry with Douglas, Vince, Edwards and Knights all capable to getting a goal or 2.

Mid field battle is a tough one, Thompson and Goodwin are top notch players and need to be watched and are dangerous any where near the big white sticks, Edwards, Van Berlo and Symes also are solid players week in and out for the Crows.

Should be a cracker of a contest with the Crows backs against the walls with a couple of loses in a row.
Pies up and down form all year has been a worry and needs to stop this weekend as we build towards September, and these are the games you must win to prove September dreams are still alive.

Blue Red and Gold
10 Jul 2008, 22:15
excuse the interuption fellas but I was wondering if you could answer a question of mine.
Im heading over for the weekend and would like to know if its worth throwing the footy in so I can have a dob on the G, is that still allowed? It was last time but thought I'd check.

cheers

thatday
10 Jul 2008, 22:17
When was last time? Do you mean, on the MCG playing surface?

Blue Red and Gold
10 Jul 2008, 22:18
years ago, cant remember exactly, I know it was a Hawthorn Sydney game though.

thatday
10 Jul 2008, 22:22
Yeah, your not allowed on the MCG arena, unless ya wanna pay a 6,000 dollar fine. There is plenty of parkland around the G where you can kick though. :thumbsu:

Blue Red and Gold
10 Jul 2008, 22:23
no worries, cheers parklands will have to do, unless I do alright at the Crown Friday.