The Future of Australian Cricket

[Simon_Nesbit]

Looking 5 years down the track, who have we got to replace our current all-star team.

BATSMEN

S.Waugh 37 - Retired
M.Waugh 37 - Retired
Bevan 32 - Retired
Slater 32 - Retired
Langer 32 - Retired
Lehmann 32 - Probably Retired
Martyn 31 - Probably Retired
Elliot 31 - Retired
Blewett 31 - Retired
Hayden 31 - Probably Retired
Goodwin 30 - Good enough for Aus?
Ponting 28 - Captain
Love 28 - Late in Career, Possible
Maher 28 - Late in Career, Possible
Hodge 28 - Late in Career, Possible
Hussey 27 - Late in Career, Possible
Katich 27 - Late in Career, Possible
M.Clarke 21 - Coming into Prime - Definite

Unless some of the youngsters (U/21) are REALLY promising, we could find our team five years down the track in the same position as it is now, with most batsmen over 30. Most worrysome area, massive strength in depth (15+ test quality batsmen, all 27+ now) will erode in 5 years. Need replacements of quality.

KEEPERS
Gilchrist 31 - Probably Retired
Haddin 25 - Late in Career, Possible
Clingeleffer 20 - Coming into Prime - Definite

Clingeleffer is the stand-out for mine, a natural replacement for Gilchrist (though not as good a batsman, still very, very good) in 5 years time. Loss but not by much.

BOWLERS
Warne 33 - Retired
Bichel 32 - Retired
Fleming 32 - Retired
MacGill 31 - Retired
McGrath 30 - Retired
Williams 28 - Probably Retired
S.Clark 27 - Late in Career, Unlikely
Gillespie 27 - Late in Career
Wright 27 - Tassie, won't make it
Bracken 25 - Late in Career, Possible
Noffke 25 - Late in Career, Probable
B.Lee 24 - Late in Career, Probable
Inness 24 - Late in Career, Probable
M.Johnson 21 - Highly rated, peaking, Possible
Rofe 21 - Excellent bowler, peaking, Probable
N.Hauritz 21 - Excellent bowler, peaking, Probable
X.Doherty 20 - excellent young bowler, possible
Brant 19 - Excellent young bowler, possible

Bowling wise, we have plenty of depth and options in the 20-25 bracket, but of those only Rofe, Haurtiz and Lee are likely to be match-winners, and not in the class of McGrath or Warne. Big fall in quality, but good enough to stay near top.

ALLROUNDERS
Hogg 31 - Retired
Harvey 30 - Retired
Symonds 27 - Retired
Higgs 26 - Late in Career, Unlikely
Kremerskothen 21 - Peaking, Possible
Watson 21 - Peaking, Probable
White 19 - Peaking, Possible

Not losing much at all, but Watson and White the standouts, and Kremerskothen can be a very destructive batsman when confident (contrary to his performances to date).

POSSIBLE 2007 Test Side (XII)

Hussey (32)
Maher (33)
Ponting (c) (33)
Katich (vc) (32)
M.Clarke (26)
Love (32)
Watson (26) (b)
Clingeleffer (25) (wk)
B.Lee/Noffke (29/30) (b)
Gillespie/Noffke (32/30) (b)
Rofe/Inness (26/29) (b)
Rofe/Hauritz (26/26) (b)

Still a competitive side, although I feel we would slide down a fair way, losing out in 8 positions (Ponting improve, B.Lee improve on B.Lee, Katich improve on M.Waugh), but more importantly the sheer strike power of McGrath and Warne, and the batting depth provided by Hayden, Langer, Ponting, S.Waugh, Martyn and Gilchrist.

[bunsen burner]

Very fair analysis. As you say, the losses that we will find extremely hard to cover are Warne and McGrath. We need to uncover some very good players over the next few years.

I don't think we should be taking our current success for granted (as many do). We should make the most of it, because the law of averages say that it won't last forever.

[hourn]

I dont see the problem with that side. Its bloody awesome.

you say now they dont look as good as the current Australia team.

But when McGrath was starting out in test cricket everyone bagged him - not quick enough to open, doesn't move the ball enough. Now look at him. One of Australias best ever quicks.

Batting wise. All those guys you mentioned as retired is probalby right although Martyn and Hayden may still be around. Probably not both, but possibly one of them. But they'll be on their last legs.

Hussey (32 in 5 years time) and Maher (33) will probably be the opening batsmen (assuming Hayden is gone). Now wahts the problem with that age?? Hayden and Langer are likely to play on possibly even past 33 and 32. And 5 years ago you would NEVER IN A MILLION YEARS though these two would be as good as they are now. Then there are some other options - Brendan Nash would have just turned 30 and he's showing some allright potential. Mueleman will hopefully come on and will hopefully be in the opening batsmen group after Maher and Hussey.

Middle Order will have Ponting at 3, with Love and Katich in there at 4 and 5. Martyn at 36 may still be around??? Its possible. Other options are obvoiusbly Michael Clarke(26 in 5 years). or even MIchael Dighton (31 in 5 years), Marcus North (28), Mark Cosgrove (24 - yet to play FC),


Keepers, Cligeleffer will take over from GIlly and he is not far from the batsmen Gilchrist is. He's not in his class but who knows, with a bit more experience he could be even better. Gilly didn't have this good of a start at such a young age to his FC career.


Bowlers, Brett Lee whose actually 26 now (31 then), may still be around. Whether hes good enough. McGrath (35) could still be around - he has such a simple action. Courtney Walsh played to 37. Gillespie at 32 may still be in the team - has injury worries though. We could still have the same pace attack in 5 years. The other quicks coming through will be Noffke (30) and Inness (29) and Rofe (26). Watson as a bowling all rounder as well at 26. Shane Jurgensen will be 31 then.

Spinners, obvioubsly Warne is nearly irrepalcable. White is looking allright at 24, Hauritz will be 26. They are OK but not great.


Still a competitive side, although I feel we would slide down a fair way, losing out in 8 positions (Ponting improve, B.Lee improve on B.Lee, Katich improve on M.Waugh), but more importantly the sheer strike power of McGrath and Warne, and the batting depth provided by Hayden, Langer, Ponting, S.Waugh, Martyn and Gilchrist.

you can't say that. 5 yeaars ago would you have picked Hayden, Langer and Martyn and even Gilchrist to be this good????

There is just as much chance that Hussey, Maher, Love, Cligeleffer and co will be as good and a chance they'll be even better. You just can't say that based on today because 5 years ago if you said Hayden and Langer will open the batting in 2002/03, everyone would say "**** we're ****ed then. Look how much better Taylor and Slater are now"

[hourn]

Here we go, The Australian Now Performances vs the Possible Australian team 5 years from now performances.

Current Australia, performance 5 yrs ago FC 1996/97
Justin Langer (32) WA/Aus - 14 inns, 771 runs at 77.10, HS: 243*, 1 100, 3 50s. (Played 8 tests by the end of 96/97)
Matt Hayden (31) Qld/AusXI/Aus - 14 inns, 648 runs at 54.00, HS: 224, 2 100s, 2 50s. (Played 7 tests)
Ricky Ponting (28) Tas/Aus - 18 inns, 960 runs at 60.00, HS: HS: 159, 3 100s, 4 50s. (Played 6 tests)
Mark Waugh (37) NSW/Aus - 13 inns, 564 runs at 43.48, HS: 159, 1 100, 4 50s. (Played 63 tests)
Steve Waugh (37) NSW/Aus - 12 inns, 609 runs at 55.36, HS: 186*, 2 100s, 3 50s. (Played 89 tests)
Damien Martyn (31) WA - 20 inns, 701 runs at 36.89, HS: 108, 2 100s, 3 50s.
Adam Gilchrist (30) WA/AusXI - 17 inns, 591 runs at 39.40, HS: 108*, 1 100, 2 50s.
Brett Lee (26) - not playing FC cricket
Andy Bichel (32) Qld/AusXI/Aus - 6 mtchs, 30 wkts at 21.66, BB: 6/56, 4 5 inns, 1 10 mtch. (Played 2 tests)
Jason Gillespie (27) SOA/AusXI/Aus - 5 mtchs, 9 wkts at 37.77, BB: 5/64, 1 5 inns, 0 10 mtch. (Played 5 tests)
Shane Warne (33) Vic/Aus - 7 mtchs, 27 wkts at 29.44, BB: 4/95, 0 5 inns, 0 10 mtch. (Played 52 tests)
Glenn McGrath (30) NSW/Aus - 6 mtchs, 29 wkts at 19.55, BB: 5/50, 1 5 inns, 0 10 mtch. (Played 28 tests)
Average Age: 31.16


Possible Australia Team 5 years from now, performances FC 2001/02
Jimmy Maher (33) Qld - 19 inns, 1194 runs at 66.63, HS: 209, 3 100s, 6 50s.
Michael Hussey (32) WA - 18 inns, 621 runs at 34.50, HS: 100, 1 100, 4 50s.
Ricky Ponting (33) Tas/Aus - 14 inns, 733 runs at 66.33, HS: 157*, 3 100s 2 50s. (Played 56 tests by end of 2001/02)
Martin Love (33) Qld - 22 inns, 1189 runs at 62.57, HS: 202*, 2 100s, 6 50s.
Simon Katich (32) WA - 18 inns, 651 runs at 36.16, HS: 131, 1 100, 4 50s. (Played 1 test)
Michael Clarke (26) NSW - 18 inns, 633 runs at 39.00, HS: 132, 2 100s, 2 50s.
Sean Cligellefer (27) Tas - 15 inns, 517 runs at 47.00, HS: 140*, 2 100s, 1 50.
Shane Watson (26) Tas - 11 inns, 292 runs at 29.20, 22 wkts at 23.36, BB: 6/32, 2 5 inns, 0 10 mtch.
Nathan Haurtiz (26) Qld - 7 mtchs, 16 wkts at 30.25, BB: 4/119, 0 5 inns, 0 10 mtch.
Matt Inness (29) Vic - 7 mtchs, 31 wkts at 19.25, BB: 7/19, 1 5 inns, 1 10 mtch.
Paul Rofe (26) SOA - 11 mtchs, 41 wkts at 25.85, BB: 7/52, 3 5 inns, 1 10 mtch.
Ashley Noffke (30) Qld - 11 mtchs, 39 wkts at 28.46, BB: 5/31, 2 5 inns, 0 10 mtch.
Average Age: 29.41

Now look at the perfomances of the two groups of players and there is very little difference, especially when you consider Hussey and Katich are proven performers as in season 2000/01 they both average over 50 and that 01/02 was an off season.

The bowling department is looking even stronger. There are 3 future players now who had really good seasons last season (Watson, Rofe and Inness) while Noffke has also proven he can play FC cricket. And Hauritz had an average 2001/02.

Compared to 5 years ago. Only McGrath and Bichel (who still hasn't really cracked the test team) had really good seasons, while Warne was obvioubsly a proven performer by then (just didn't have a great season). Gillespie had done nothing in FC cricket by then and Lee hadn't even played.

There is a problem in the fact that there were 9 guys with Test experience (even if 5 of them were under 10 games) compared to just the two in the future team.

Yes, that is a slight problem, but i believe that the FC Cricket competition (although never really being able to simulate the pressures of test cricket) is getting so strong now, that there is not that big of a jump from Sheffield Shield cricket into the Test arena.

But overall, Our future Australian team is looking like its going to be just as good as what the current Australian team is going to be if you base it on those performances, and there is no reason why you can't.

[Simon_Nesbit]

Originally posted by hourn
But when McGrath was starting out in test cricket everyone bagged him - not quick enough to open, doesn't move the ball enough. Now look at him. One of Australias best ever quicks.

Hayden and Langer are likely to play on possibly even past 33 and 32. And 5 years ago you would NEVER IN A MILLION YEARS though these two would be as good as they are now.

Keepers, Cligeleffer will take over from GIlly and he is not far from the batsmen Gilchrist is. He's not in his class but who knows, with a bit more experience he could be even better. Gilly didn't have this good of a start at such a young age to his FC career.

you can't say that. 5 yeaars ago would you have picked Hayden, Langer and Martyn and even Gilchrist to be this good????



Actually, ten years (or thereabouts) ago, the ashes series when Slater came to the fore, I picked 5 players to become 'superstars' of the game.

I can't remember the fifth, but Hayden, Martyn, Ponting, and McGrath were all my picks. I think the fifth may have been Harrity from SA, but not sure. I don't think I'd ever heard of Gilchrist.

At the moment, I'd put Watson, Hauritz, Rofe, Clarke in that category. Maybe Doherty as well.

It's more the depth than anything else that is worrying for me.

[FreoGirl]

I'm looking forward to seeing some new faces in the future. I like to believe that there's a mass of young talented Australians hungry for an opportunity.

My 4 year old son attended a Have a Go cricket coaching session today. I was thrilled to see how many young kids were there, especially with the popularity of tee ball etc! This was just one small club out of several hundred around Australia.

I can only imagine the depth we must have at the older end with u/17's etc just aching to get a chance in the future.


http://www.thebabycorner.com/sites/webs/kanga/crick.JPG

[knuckles]

Pointless, unless you look at the opposition:
WI....dying sport replaced by basketball, boxing.
ENG...players who can't cut it in football play cricket. Dying sport already for many years.
Pak....disorganised rabble
NZ...no, say nothing
India...see Pak
South Africa...prime athletes looking at Basketball, Rugby first
Zimbabwe - will be banned from competing by ICC
Sri Lanka - A chance, political stability permitting.

In 5 years, it will be the same one-sided snorefest led by OZ. :o

[bunsen burner]

Originally posted by knuckles
Pointless, unless you look at the opposition:
WI....dying sport replaced by basketball, boxing.
ENG...players who can't cut it in football play cricket. Dying sport already for many years.
Pak....disorganised rabble
NZ...no, say nothing
India...see Pak
South Africa...prime athletes looking at Basketball, Rugby first
Zimbabwe - will be banned from competing by ICC
Sri Lanka - A chance, political stability permitting.

In 5 years, it will be the same one-sided snorefest led by OZ. :o Where did you get your information from? Barry the brickie from down the pub? Cricket has been growing for 125 years and you think it will be die within 5 years in most other countries?

* Firstly, I would be surprised if Australia is still as strong as it is now in 5 years time.
*Cricket is growing worldwide - more and more countries are gaining test status.

Just 3 questions:

1) How do you know that Basketball and boxing are overtaking cricket in the carribean? Have you lived there for a length of time?

2) What makes you think that English cricketers are wanna-be footballers? This is an outlandish statement at the least.

3) If prime athletes are looking at Basketball & Rugby first, what makes you think this means there aren't enough people to play cricket?

I anticipate your justifications.

[knuckles]

1) Yes, albeit 1 week. But their sporting academies / school were once only visited regularly by WI officials. Now, US scouts run frequent camps in Basketball, which rarely happened in the past. Plus the on slaught of cable-TV which has shifted the interest of youth from cricket to boxing/basketball (e.g. Ambrose failed at basketball camps b4 choosing cricket) Plus their cricket body is a politicaly fragmented basket case. Plus Holding/Richards/Murray have written a number of articles re this. Plus Lloyd said so. Plus I said so.
2) The pool of athletes at most of their schools have a choice to join camps run by EPL teams early on in academia. Purely for fiscal reasons, players are urged, if they have any athletic prowess, to pursue football. Both Gooch and Gower have covered this problem On Starworld-TV a number of times. Refusing to name names, Gooch had hinted a 2 current test players, who pursued football prior to being rejected, the pursuing cricket.Only recently their Academy, under Marsh, has gotten their act together. Plus I said so
3) I wouldn't classify too many cricketers as athletes.

e.g. Shield (Milk)cricket, County cricket, Intl cricket crowd in SA, GB, and even in OZ, pale in comparison to football codes when there is more than one option available.
Allowing more sides to test status doesn't align with it being more popular. Its also played in Italy (who once defeated England). I know that, doubt many Italians know.

[bunsen burner]

Originally posted by knuckles
1) Yes, albeit 1 week. But their sporting academies / school were once only visited regularly by WI officials. Now, US scouts run frequent camps in Basketball, which rarely happened in the past. Plus the on slaught of cable-TV which has shifted the interest of youth from cricket to boxing/basketball (e.g. Ambrose failed at basketball camps b4 choosing cricket) Plus their cricket body is a politicaly fragmented basket case. Plus Holding/Richards/Murray have written a number of articles re this. Plus Lloyd said so. Plus I said so.
2) The pool of athletes at most of their schools have a choice to join camps run by EPL teams early on in academia. Purely for fiscal reasons, players are urged, if they have any athletic prowess, to pursue football. Both Gooch and Gower have covered this problem On Starworld-TV a number of times. Refusing to name names, Gooch had hinted a 2 current test players, who pursued football prior to being rejected, the pursuing cricket.Only recently their Academy, under Marsh, has gotten their act together. Plus I said so
3) I wouldn't classify too many cricketers as athletes.

e.g. Shield (Milk)cricket, County cricket, Intl cricket crowd in SA, GB, and even in OZ, pale in comparison to football codes when there is more than one option available.
Allowing more sides to test status doesn't align with it being more popular. Its also played in Italy (who once defeated England). I know that, doubt many Italians know.

1) There is some truth in your comments, but like you have heard these negative excuses about WI cricket, I have heard that the sport is still just as popular as it used to be, it is just that basketball (in particular) has grown somewhat. To suggest WI cricket is dying is ridiculous.

2) Once again, I'm sure it is a problem, but it is more an excuse than a problem. Shane Warne too chose cricket because he couldn't cut it in the AFL. Why is the sport not dying in Australia?


Your arguments do make sense, but there is one big flaw. I agree with all your sentiments and reasoning except that you are trying to suggest that all these things will pretty much leave cricket dead in the ground in 5 years time.

I guaruntee that had the WI or English cricket teams been successful over recent years, they wouldn't be making those excuses. Both these teams will have successful eras in the future and you can be sure there will be no reference to EPL, NBA etc.

Although the reasons you outlined will disadvantage cricket, it will grow in popularity. The WI and England will at some stage become strong again, just like Australia will fall from the top.

[knuckles]

It would make more sense if I wasn't such a lazy typer. I think Australia is unique when it comes to sport. The AIS has been superb in harnessing sporting talent, no matter what your passion is, and still ensuring you have a chance to pocket plenty. Sport in the WI,India, Pakistan, SL and prob SA, is still viewed as a hope out of poverty - not good for the game, when basketball and football / soccer is hovering.
India have improved their sporting achievements over the last several years by following the AIS model. Kicked arse in the last Asian Games, and OK at Olympics.
Just reckon cricket (esp test) has an uphill battle as a sport in our society now. The authorities see this too. Development of games such as power cricket (an alternative to one-day) are evidence of this.

While its good for us, Aust dominating is not good for the game. Not, if we want greater participation in Asia and Africa.
I predict a whitewash, maybe 1 win for Eng, this upcoming series. That would spell at least another 5 years of development to haul back. Can't see it happening.

[Slax]

Sorry mate but that was crap. Players particularly batsmen will continue until they are into their late 30s in they are good enough. I think you retired a few players a little bit too early.

Hayden will still be around and since when is 30 late in your career.

[knuckles]

Further to my cricket is a dying game in Eng, as somebody else put it...b/c I can't be frigged:D :

"England as a Nation needs to start loving the game. All too often, the peanut galleries in the smoky pubs around England sit back and criticise Hussain et al for their efforts.

Instead of switching over to watch the latest footie, put your beers down England, head for the nearest nets (outdoor or indoor) with your mates or more importantly, kids, and start loving the game. Soon, you'll start loving victory.
Michael, Zimbabwe "

[CAAS]

Keep an eye out for Robbie Cassell from Victoria. He's 19 and will play for Australia. Took 6 wickets in his 1st Pura Cup game for the Vics. Also played for the aussie under 19 world cup winning team. Dont be surprised if Shane Harwood gets a game in the next couple of years too, injuries aside, this bloke is good.

[lamby29]

I had a thread like this a whie back, but since then I have changed my mind about my opinion.

30 years of age in cricket is the equivelent of about 23 years of age in the AFL. You can play international cricket for Australia until you are 38-40 (as the Waugh brothers have shown), so all the players who are 30-33 in our current team will still be around in 5 years. The only player who will be gone is S Waugh.

[Kane McGoodwin]

Originally posted by lamby29
I had a thread like this a whie back, but since then I have changed my mind about my opinion.

30 years of age in cricket is the equivelent of about 23 years of age in the AFL. You can play international cricket for Australia until you are 38-40 (as the Waugh brothers have shown), so all the players who are 30-33 in our current team will still be around in 5 years. The only player who will be gone is S Waugh. Good point, as players are getting into the side older than in the past (due to current depth) & will probably player later. Steve Waugh is the only batsman who will need to be replaced soon(given the others continue to perform) & we have the likes of Love queuing up.

I reckon if Warney stays injury-free (ie. shoulder, etc) he would be keen to go on another 5 years - by which time the likes of White should be in his prime. McGrath I doubt will last 5 years even given his economical action & he will be a big loss (ie. harder for fast bowlder). However, Lee & perhaps Dizzy should be around for quite some time & as mentioned we have some good youngsters coming through.

[pluga_4]

good reading this, but klingleffer, c'mon :rolleyes:

[Rough_Edges]

No chance i am reading this thread.

Posting, just for the sake of it.

[Sylvia Saint]

I was actually reading this thread the other day.

Hussey (32) - Good call.
Maher (33) - Not even close.
Ponting (c) (33) - Yep.
Katich (vc) (32) - Unlikely!
M.Clarke (26) - Maybe.
Love (32) - hahaha
Watson (26) (b) - Possible.
Clingeleffer (25) (wk) - hahaha
B.Lee/Noffke (29/30) (b) - Lee will be there.
Gillespie/Noffke (32/30) (b) - No and No.
Rofe/Inness (26/29) (b) - Maybe Rofe.
Rofe/Hauritz (26/26) (b) - Hauritz!!!!!!!!!!!

It was probably a good guess at the time, but it just goes to show that a lot can change in 5 years!!!

[Unwritten_Law]

Clingeleffer had just come off a 500 run, 50 average season around about then so it is not all that stupid of a suggestion at the time.