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View Full Version : Round 1: Port Adelaide v Essendon, AAMI Stadium, 3.10pm (AEDT) Sunday March 29, Channel 7, 3pm


Ben the Gooner
24 Mar 2009, 17:13
We’re into the second year of our new coach and things look a little different around the place. No Quinn (no injuries? – not bloody likely), and plenty of fresh faces around the football department. Legends of the club like JJ are no longer around, and, the Holy Trinity of Lloyd, Lucas and Fletcher are basically the only ties with the 2000 flag. We are well and truly into our list rebuilding, with a huge majority of younger players. The future is bright for a lot of these kids, and therefore for the whole club. Guys like Reimers, Jetta, Monfries, Houli and Lonergan showed last year that they have the talent and application to be part of our next premiership tilt, and guys like Myers, Pears, Neagle, Bellchambers and Dempsey showed why we picked them. It is certainly not unreasonable to expect that all of the kids listed above, along with Gumbleton, Hurley, Zaharakis, Tyson Slattery and Darcy Daniher improve to some degree, given their age, and the experience they are receiving, and have already received. I would be extremely surprised and disappointed if we did not see some kids have a year like Reimers’ and Lonergan’s 2008s, and cement themselves in first team contention. The prime candidates in my mind are David Myers, Courtenay Dempsey, Jay Neagle and Scott Gumbleton. All have the requisite talent, and all are going to be given the opportunity to play a lot of senior football, injuries permitting.

Then we have the players like Ricky Dyson, Henry Slattery, Heath Hocking, Jarrod Atkinson, Jason Laycock and Jay Nash who are of the age where they need to start performing at a high level in order to keep their spot on the list. Slattery in particular, but also Atkinson, are required players, and in the 22, and on the fringes respectively, due to the distinct lack of small, shut-down defenders in the squad. However, there is little doubt that all of these players need to step up if they want to be assured of a place on the 2010 list. Hocking will get plenty of chances, with injuries to Welsh, McVeigh and Prismall opening up some gaps in the midfield. Dyson has impressed in the NAB Cup, but flattered to deceive last year, and will really need to avoid Bendigo for much of the year if he wants to be at Windy Hill next season. Nash needs to improve his confidence and game-day decision making if he wants to reach the next level. Laycock is contracted for 2010, and injured for the start of this season. If he cannot get his body right next year, it may be curtains, which would be a shame for a bloke of that talent.

http://www.essendonfc.com.au/images/08/r7-gsp-19.jpg

From there, we have our senior players, around whom the team is built. Guys like McPhee are searching for a defined role in the team, but the rest know their roles, and are capable of playing them with distinction. David Hille aside, there is a degree of depth which would enable us to withstand a normal amount of injuries – last year’s injury list would have tested Geelong and Hawthorn – without too much of a problem. There are not enough spots in the team for all of Houli, Dempsey, Myers, Monfries, Jetta, Nash, Hocking, Prismall, Skipworth and Lovett-Murray, so there is plenty of depth available should our smaller players get injured. Behind Hille however, there is a key defender, and a stick insect. It is fair to say that Hille’s fitness will define our season more than any other player on our list.

So there is plenty to play for individually, and given where the team was at last year, there is a finals spot on the line, should the group want it.

Were that to happen, there would have to be a significant amount of slack taken up by the likes of Monfries, Davey, Jetta, Reimers, Lonergan and Ryder, as it is simply unrealistic to expect 6-10 middle aged players of various status to carry an entire team. For too long, we have relied on Lloyd, Lucas and Fletcher, and if we are to make finals this year, that has to change pronto. If the basis of the team’s achievement can be set by the likes of Stanton, Hille, McVeigh, Lovett, Winderlich and the younger players, the output of the older players and the youngest of the younger players would be the icing which pushes us over the line into finals.

http://www.essendonfc.com.au/images/08/r7-gsp-16.jpg

So there is plenty to play for, and to kick the season off, we come up against a Port side embarrassed and angered by its sub-standard finish last year, and burning with a hunger to return to the finals. So we have to face a side which will be looking for revenge on the entire AFL, and we have to do it with injuries.

Half of our starting centre square grouping is out, with Welsh sidelined by his ankle injury until the middle of the year, and McVeigh also hampered by his ankle, but only for two weeks. Scott Gumbleton is also likely to miss, with Henry Slattery a doubt due to an ankle injury as well. Jason Laycock and Brent Prismall are the long term outs, with foot and knee injuries respectively, while Kyle Reimers’ quad tendonitis will keep him out for three weeks. David Myers should be available.

http://www.essendonfc.com.au/images/08/r7-gsp-12.jpg

With that in mind, we have to consider Port’s forward line. Warren Tredrea, despite the years advancing almost as fast as his hairline is receding, is a champion player, and needs to be treated with respect. Justin Westhoff is the other tall forward target, and Daniel Motlop and Brett Ebert are two very potent small forwards. With Slattery no certainty to play, it looks like Dustin Fletcher will have to take one of the smaller forwards, which means that Michael Hurley should make his debut at full back. David Myers or Heath Hocking may have to take the other small forward, with Ryder on Westhoff.

In the middle, there are a number of Port players who could, and should be tagged, but with Welsh out and Slattery and Hocking tied up down back, Lonergan and Skipworth may well have to do a role on the likes of Boak, Pearce and Shaun Burgoyne. On the flip side, one of Boak and Pearce should play on Watson, while Kane Cornes will likely play on Brent Stanton.

Dean Brogan and Brendan Lade share the ruck duties very well, and are extremely dangerous around the stoppages. David Hille will have to take the majority of the ruckwork, as Tom Bellchambers, despite his potential, is not ready to outperform two fantastic ruckmen. Hille can particularly hurt Lade and Brogan around the ground, where he is effectively another midfielder. For us to have some sort of ascendancy, Hille will need to gather possessions and kick goals.

http://www.essendonfc.com.au/images/08/r7-gsp-21.jpg

Our forward line has the potential to be incredibly flexible, with a number of players able to play tall there. With Gumbleton injured, I think Knights will opt for three talls, in Lloyd, Lucas and Neagle, with McPhee playing a role on Chad Cornes. Monfries will most likely play his usual role on the opposition’s main running defender, which for Port is usually Peter Burgoyne.[

We have the potential to beat Port, as we can genuinely test them for height in our forward line, and can counter attack their midfield effectively with our pace. However, for us to be a genuine threat, I feel that at least one of McVeigh and Welsh should play.

My prediction is a narrow win to Port, but last year showed us never to write a Matthew Knights team off before the first bounce.

http://i215.photobucket.com/albums/cc285/bengooner4/Rd1team.jpg

Darealrath
24 Mar 2009, 17:41
Port by 5 goals. They own us.

The Dustbin
24 Mar 2009, 17:51
Great review BTG. :thumbsu:

Our record against Port at Ade is not very good and I can't see it improving on Sunday. I'd be happy if we can keep it under 6 goals.

warney7
24 Mar 2009, 18:12
I think Port will win by 40-something points.

It's not as much a reflection of where we are as a team as it is who we are able to get onto the park.

McVeigh, Welsh, Reimers, Prismall and Slattery are all best-22 players and coming up against a fully-fit Port Adelaide at AAMI stadium is really sizing up as a huge challenge.

How can we match 2 Burgoyne's, 2 Cornes', Cassisi, Carr, Salopek, Pearce, Boak, Surjan, Rodan and anyone else they will have out there?

Motlop, Ebert, Rodan and Westhoff will prove enough of a hurdle up forward and knowing Tredrea, he'll probably only kick 25 goals for the year, but 6 of them will likely be on Sunday.

Their backline is probably their weakest area, but is unlikely to be tested without Gumbleton in the side, with Lucas struggling for pace and Lloyd playing up the ground.

Unfortunately, I see no way we can win! :(

BringBackCransberg
24 Mar 2009, 18:24
Excellent review -- got me even more excited, and I didn't think that was possible.

Will be interesting if both Monfries and McPhee play defensive-forward roles (if that's what you mean by McPhee playing a role on Cornes). A strange dynamic with the three talls (strange to little me) that will hopefully pile on the goals.

Thanks BtG.

Wahooti Fandango
24 Mar 2009, 18:29
Quality work BtG. :thumbsu:

Strike Swiftly
24 Mar 2009, 19:24
nice work goons

Not a Wellman
24 Mar 2009, 19:32
Thanks benny great job also thanks warney for returning my question in the tv guide thread.

Just a couple of things, everyone is saying Hille is our most important player I still think Fletcher is.

I don't think gumby is in our best 22 even when fit.

We could win by 5 goals and we could also lose by 90 points.

There is a way of winning warney, lovett, dempsey, davey, winders along with Hille, Lloyd and fletcher all playing well and we are definetly in with a big chance.

If we get a full side on the deck sometime throughout the year look out cause guys that won't take us near finals won't be playing eg lovett-murrey, nash and dyson.

Lance Uppercut
24 Mar 2009, 19:44
just excellent work Gooner :thumbsu:

My prediction? Essendon by 14 points in a tough game. Port will not be the bolters this year, and will start slowly.

Windas_Magic
24 Mar 2009, 20:38
As much as i would love for us to come away with a win, i just can't see it happening. With the slow build up in pre-season, and multiple injuries early on, i think we'll start the season a little slowly but build up later on.

But hey, we came out and beat a bogey side in round 1 last year and there's no reason why it can't happen again.

C'mon Bombers, lets prove the doubters wrong and come away with a win!

Merv
24 Mar 2009, 20:41
Thanks for putting in the effort and producing a professional preview Benny Boy :thumbsu:

Especially like that you took the time to find photos of both teams.

Daytripper
24 Mar 2009, 20:48
Essendon have been despised outsiders in Rd 1 the last two seasons and have come out both times and won comfortably.

One was Adelaide in Adelaide. :D

I'm not convinced about Port either and think its more laziness from the pundits that predict them to rise this year, ie they made the GF in 06 surely they have to bounce back type of thing.

Interesting contest really. Their poor forward line versus our poor backline. Our quality ruck versus two decent rucks although Lade is on the slide.
Our experienced key forwards versus their very underrated key defenders.
Essendons indigineous players versus theirs.

No name unheralded developing youngsters on both teams.

The Cornes brothers might get them over the line as without Welsh and McVeigh we are missing two comparable players.

kelvin_sheedy
24 Mar 2009, 20:54
We'll be missing McVeigh, Welsh, Reimers, Laycock who for me are automatic best 22 players - rest are debatable. The availability and form of McVeigh and Reimers could dictate our season.

We are effectively down one quality rotation through the middle and are a bit too heavy up forward for a big ground.

It will be a minor miracle if we win. For us to win a new star will have to be born - Ryder, Lonergan, Houli, Jetta?

OzBomber
24 Mar 2009, 20:58
Essendon have been despised outsiders in Rd 1 the last two seasons and have come out both times and won comfortably.

One was Adelaide in Adelaide. :D
3 seasons actually. We hammered the reigning premiers in 06.

Ben the Gooner
24 Mar 2009, 21:01
Thanks for putting in the effort and producing a professional preview Benny Boy :thumbsu:

Especially like that you took the time to find photos of both teams.

They were all directly from the efc website.:o

Sigmund
24 Mar 2009, 21:07
great work as always Benny Boy... love the magnets! Any thoughts as to when you think Pears may be introduced into the senior team?

Wahooti Fandango
24 Mar 2009, 21:07
We'll be missing McVeigh, Welsh, Reimers, Laycock who for me are automatic best 22 players - rest are debatable. The availability and form of McVeigh and Reimers could dictate our season.

We are effectively down one quality rotation through the middle and are a bit too heavy up forward for a big ground.

It will be a minor miracle if we win. For us to win a new star will have to be born - Ryder, Lonergan, Houli, Jetta?

Nice to see you being optimistic, Kelvin. ;)

Ben the Gooner
24 Mar 2009, 21:22
Pears and Hurley I feel will rotate between that 3rd defender spot, to free Fletch up a bit.

Maybe Rd 2 v Tarrant?

Sigmund
24 Mar 2009, 21:23
Pears and Hurley I feel will rotate between that 3rd defender spot, to free Fletch up a bit.

Maybe Rd 2 v Tarrant?


Hope so:thumbsu:

Mudflap
24 Mar 2009, 21:46
Pears and Hurley I feel will rotate between that 3rd defender spot, to free Fletch up a bit.

Maybe Rd 2 v Tarrant?

My thoughts are Hurley, Pears to be 2nd and 3rd defender with Fletch and Ryder to play roaming ruck.

Thats what we recruited them for!

stay true
24 Mar 2009, 22:05
Quality write-up Benny!

I'm tipping us to win based on nothing but the fact that I always tip us in round 1 lol.

yaco55
24 Mar 2009, 23:22
Th clearances could be crucial in this game.

Port smashed the Kangaroos in Round 22 from clearances and scored about 80% of their goals from this route.

It is essential that EFC match them in the clearances, and have a player standing 10 metres from the pack on the defensive side.

Port are one of the better sides in the AFL at scoring goals from clearances.

bombre-boy
24 Mar 2009, 23:32
WE will beat ourselves if (more likely when) we butcher the ball.
Port will kill us on the rebound...
Get the skills right and we have a shot.

Awesome post BTG..

Mr Sparkle
25 Mar 2009, 08:54
Great write up BTG!!!


Dons by 3 goals.... but I wouldn't put and coin on the result.

daffo
25 Mar 2009, 09:49
Hopefully we will play tight football and keep our kicking skills up. If so it could be another round one win away from home.