View Full Version : Are we able to pinch this flag?
Despite us not being a realistic chance at being anywhere near the premiership this year are we one of the few teams capable of pinching it should all the stars align and Ablett do an ACL?
Geelong, Hawthorn and St.Kilda are clearly the main contenders for this years premiership and deservedly so, but behind them are a couple of teams I feel are capable of pinching it on the day should things fall into place. Carlton Port Adelaide and ourselves.
With Hawthorn already suffering from the injury bug and St.Kilda without anyone who has made it to the big stage before there are already question marks over both for mine. Geelong quite obviously is still the bench mark but like them last year and our '00 squad the proof is there that every dog can have their day and even the best can have a down day.
Carlton have the thoroughbreds in the paddock that us more so than Port are lacking but like apart from Judd have little to no finals experience which may bring them undone.
Port still have a few members of their '04 flag hanging around with with Tredrea playing himself into some good form are potential darkhorses with a solid engine room and 2 quality rucks.
We are clearly going to miss big Hille but have some exceptional place, have shown great heart and still have a few members of the '00 flag to give us some experience should we make it to the big stage. In 2 of our 3 wins neither Lucas or lloyd have stood up and you know it's only a matter of time before atleast one if not both come good and string some games together.
I realise it's a long shot and personally feel Geelong are already over the line but we did it in '93 and this year may throw another smoky into the works.
OzBomber
30 Apr 2009, 08:18
Getting a bit too confident me thinks. We could so easily be 1-4 right now.
EssendonPride
30 Apr 2009, 08:21
I really hope you're not wishing Ablett do an ACL...........
zaharakamania
30 Apr 2009, 08:24
anything is possible
if you take '93 as a comparative, although tagged the 'baby bombers' there was a fair deal of experience in the side - watson, daniher, salmon, somerville, harves, bomber, wallis.
the current group strikes me as being far more inexperienced & as yet lacks the class of the '93 group, both old & young (with exception of the obvious - lloyd, fletch, lucas)
but that perception can quickly change & heres hoping it does:thumbsu:
& god forbid ablett does his knee or anything else, having too much fun watching him play
Not getting confident just looking at possibilities outside the main 3 chances and thought that we were potentially an outsider along with Port and Carlton. I still expect Geelong to win the flag and wouldn't be surprised if they go 1 better than us and clean sweep the season.
As for Ablett hell no I don't really want him to do an ACL he's my supercoach captain for the year. Also he's unbelievable to watch.
centurion
30 Apr 2009, 08:33
I love my club but we are no chance.
Johnny619
30 Apr 2009, 08:40
Nope not this year
table tennis
30 Apr 2009, 08:40
I love my club but we are no chance.
Agreed, we have to learn to string a few games together before we can think about playing finals let alone pinching flags.
Brisbane up there this week will be a big enough challenge.
Longy413
30 Apr 2009, 08:49
Not even close.
We might be able to pinch a finals place.
krisholio14
30 Apr 2009, 08:50
Wait till you play us.
Then you'll find out what kind of chance you are of pinching it.
^ Agreed. Reality check when you play Geelong.
Wait till you play us.
Then you'll find out what kind of chance you are of pinching it.
Your mob and St Kilda will maul us. Both mature teams who use the ball well and work hard both ways. Teams who give us space pay the price, but stonger teams can push us around and close us down.
Our next premiership team IMO will not contain Fletch, Lloyd and Lucas. We are 3 or 4 years off competing for a flag. Hopefully Neagle and Gumby have 50-60 games under their belts by then.
the dons would do well to make the 8... the season so far has exceeded my expectations.... lets just hope we can string a few more games together and the confidence stays high... but yea, a premiership is some years off...
Of the three teams you named as smokeys... only Carlton have a very slim outside chance... Port?? maybe if they finished top 4 and had home finals... but still...they are up and down at the moment....dont seem settle enough to be serious contenders...
The Donners
30 Apr 2009, 09:20
Wait till you play us.
Then you'll find out what kind of chance you are of pinching it.
And hopefully these threads will be put to bed.
1993 was a different era for a start and secondly it was a very even comp from top to near the bottom. 13 wins and a draw got us top spot in 1993.
We did not fall into the finals and steal a flag. We actually ended up being one of the better teams that season.
This year that is certainly not the case. Like Longy said we may pinch a finals place and maybe a finals win but we are not even close to the top 4.
a million to one.
Having said that, things do happen very quickly when things click, so Im not sure sure we are necessarily 4-5 years away as some may suggest.
Remember in 93, after not playing finals in 92 we won our first game in round 4 (against Sydney who were stone motherless in 92 and 93) and lost in round 5.
One win (and a draw) till round 6, after not being in the finals in 92 - to finishing top of the ladder and winning the flag.
Didnt brisbane get smashed one day by carlton at princess park (and were looking down the barrel it seemed) to go on to win 3 flags in a row? (I havnt looked this up, but my memory something like this happened).
The kids are definitely coming along, you can sense a massive momentum swing from the youth, but I think this season is a little premature.
If we can have 95% of the list ready to go round 1 next year, we may start a real climb up the ladder though.
saladin
30 Apr 2009, 09:51
not the faintest chance. physically, structurally and skill-level we are so far behind a couple of the sides that even if they played poorly and we played at our best we'd struggle to win.
we may give hawthorn a run for their money in two weeks, but at the business end of the year we just don't have the cattle at the moment. witness what happened against North when they closed the space down - we were terrible and cannot yet FORCE our gamestyle on other sides - we rely on them letting us play our style. Geelong don't let anyone play on any terms other than their own.
geelong remind me of essendon 2000 - they look driven to redeem last years missed opportunity.
Can't see this happening this year. I would be so happy if we could get to the finals, and that is what we should be aiming for.
Lance Uppercut
30 Apr 2009, 11:28
but we beet teh tihrd favrit teem so that must mean we r teh tihrd best team!1!13
Best topic ever.
geelong says hello
We need gumbleton and Bellchambers to step up this year for us to be a chance of getting into the finals.
after the Geelong game will you start a thread saying "will we be bottom four this year?"?
kelvin_sheedy
30 Apr 2009, 13:12
Why not?
Where there's life, there's hope.....
Stranger things have happened - Bradbury, Greece winning the Euro Championship.
The only way could would be if Geelong or Hawthorn fell over in terms of injuries and we had a magic run from now.
It's the reason I watch footy. Win enough games to play finals and then somehow have it all come together. Play finals and let someone become the new Michael Long... DREAM PEOPLE DREAM!!!!!!!!
AsIfYouCare
30 Apr 2009, 13:27
but we beet teh tihrd favrit teem so that must mean we r teh tihrd best team!1!13
I dnt tink da transitive law applies to footy.
james_omahoney
30 Apr 2009, 14:01
I don't think it's a silly as some are making out. No, I don't think it will happen, but i'd give it a 5% chance, which is still a chance.
Last year I rated us about 7th-8th based on games I saw where we had a fairly normal availability list. This year I saw us as being about 5th-6th before Hille went down.
Really, it's not a deep competition at the moment. There are two teams smashing it and the rest are just as average as each other. Sure, we're only 5 rounds in, but anyone from 4th to 12th this year is a chance of 'pinching' it, although it's highly unlikely.
Your mob and St Kilda will maul us. Both mature teams who use the ball well and work hard both ways. Teams who give us space pay the price, but stonger teams can push us around and close us down.
Our next premiership team IMO will not contain Fletch, Lloyd and Lucas. We are 3 or 4 years off competing for a flag. Hopefully Neagle and Gumby have 50-60 games under their belts by then.
This, except I'm not even confident that Neagle and Gumby will be in the team. Gumby has to overcome injury concerns and Neagle hasn't show he has the work ethic to make it. It's possible that in three years one of them will be overtaken by someone else, maybe someone we haven't even drafted yet.
In addition, not only are we too physically underdeveloped to make any real impact, we also still have pleny of mental growth to do. We should have beaten North but we didn't because we are still a developing side and are very inconsistent. Teams as inconsistent as us never bother real finalists in this day and age.
bOmBeR_BoY1
30 Apr 2009, 14:45
This thread is just pure embarrassment and will no doubt be revisited with our next loss, likely to be Saturday Night.
Absolutely **** all hope - if we can scrounge a win this weekend, we could perhaps be considered a SMALL chance for 8th spot but that's about it. A lot of better sides out there at the moment.
Lance Uppercut
30 Apr 2009, 14:48
I dnt tink da transitive law applies to footy.
who r u calln a transvestite?^ :mad:
Phat Toni
30 Apr 2009, 15:04
Not a chance, our young bodies will get smashed in the finals, if we even make it that far!
as far as this year goes;
Cats>>>>Saints>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Hawks>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Rest
DonMania#5
30 Apr 2009, 15:49
We have no chance this year..
theboxmike
30 Apr 2009, 16:37
I wish i could say yes but unfortunately it's not going to happen
It would be a nice surprise though:D and loads of cash for the media with all the BABY BOMERS ARE BACK headlines lol
AndyLesPaul
30 Apr 2009, 16:54
Despite us not being a realistic chance at being anywhere near the premiership this year are we one of the few teams capable of pinching it should all the stars align and Ablett do an ACL?
Geelong, Hawthorn and St.Kilda are clearly the main contenders for this years premiership and deservedly so, but behind them are a couple of teams I feel are capable of pinching it on the day should things fall into place. Carlton Port Adelaide and ourselves.
With Hawthorn already suffering from the injury bug and St.Kilda without anyone who has made it to the big stage before there are already question marks over both for mine. Geelong quite obviously is still the bench mark but like them last year and our '00 squad the proof is there that every dog can have their day and even the best can have a down day.
Carlton have the thoroughbreds in the paddock that us more so than Port are lacking but like apart from Judd have little to no finals experience which may bring them undone.
Port still have a few members of their '04 flag hanging around with with Tredrea playing himself into some good form are potential darkhorses with a solid engine room and 2 quality rucks.
We are clearly going to miss big Hille but have some exceptional place, have shown great heart and still have a few members of the '00 flag to give us some experience should we make it to the big stage. In 2 of our 3 wins neither Lucas or lloyd have stood up and you know it's only a matter of time before atleast one if not both come good and string some games together.
I realise it's a long shot and personally feel Geelong are already over the line but we did it in '93 and this year may throw another smoky into the works.
Well, we'd need a freak streak of games, let alone an awesome finals run
something that results in us not versing either st kilda or geelong, then in the gf, they CHOKE
;)
For everyone declaring this stupid, pathetic and embarressing please note that as quoted by AndyLesPaul I have stated:
us not being a realistic chance at being anywhere near the premiership this year
Geelong, Hawthorn and St.Kilda are clearly the main contenders for this years premiership and deservedly so
I realise it's a long shot and personally feel Geelong are already over the line
The comparison to '93 is only in regard to coming from nowhere the previous season and is in no way to compare the structure of our club or the competition level at that stage (mind you geelong and West Coast did rematch the '02 GF in '04 so it had some form).
I am in no way insinuating we are flag favourites just thought it would be interesting to get others opinions since we have A) already "pinched" games against Carlton and Collingwood we should have lost on paper and more so after the opening 2 minutes being without Hille for the remainder of the ANZAC clash. And B) neither of our big guns up forward are firing and we have 3 high quality players out atm with McVeigh, Welsh and Prismall to return for the latter part of the season (McVeigh hopefully round 7).
Wait till you play us.
Then you'll find out what kind of chance you are of pinching it.
When we play yous it will clearly tell us we are a long way off the 8-ball if your team is 95% injury as it currently stands, for us to pinch it we would require you to have a lineup similar to Hawthorn in round 2 with multiple digit premiership players missing and to be on the top of our game. I'm just wondering if we are in the back of that queue behind you frontrunners that should luck play a part were 1 tenth of a chance to pull the rug out!
a million to one.
Having said that, things do happen very quickly when things click, so Im not sure sure we are necessarily 4-5 years away as some may suggest.
Remember in 93, after not playing finals in 92 we won our first game in round 4 (against Sydney who were stone motherless in 92 and 93) and lost in round 5.
One win (and a draw) till round 6, after not being in the finals in 92 - to finishing top of the ladder and winning the flag.
Didnt brisbane get smashed one day by carlton at princess park (and were looking down the barrel it seemed) to go on to win 3 flags in a row? (I havnt looked this up, but my memory something like this happened).
The kids are definitely coming along, you can sense a massive momentum swing from the youth, but I think this season is a little premature.
If we can have 95% of the list ready to go round 1 next year, we may start a real climb up the ladder though.
Your memory serves you correctly... before our dive into crudness, our last good year of 2001 saw us be the last team to beat Brisbane for the season by about 80points. They went on to win 16 straight.
For everyone declaring this stupid, pathetic and embarressing please note that as quoted by AndyLesPaul I have stated:
us not being a realistic chance at being anywhere near the premiership this year
Geelong, Hawthorn and St.Kilda are clearly the main contenders for this years premiership and deservedly so
I realise it's a long shot and personally feel Geelong are already over the line
Yes, well that's all well and good except "us not being a realistic chance at being anywhere near the premiership this year" AND "I realise it's a long shot and personally feel Geelong are already over the line" are pretty much mutually exclusive. You can't say "realistically we AREN'T a chance but we ARE a long shot chance". We didn't "pinch" games against Carlton and Collingwood, if we had been more accurate on goals in both games we could have blown out both games well before the siren. It was our poor skills that made the games so close, and those same poor skills are why we have no realistic chance of getting a flag.
Those two teams are no measurement for success anyway. If we had "pinched" games against Geelong and St Kilda then maybe people wouldn't have called your thread an embarrassment. Honestly, we could be 5-0 and we'd still be nowhere near a flag because all five teams we have played so far have been average. (Which is not to say I'd spit at being 5-0, I'd like us to be. But it still wouldn't be a real indication of our flag chances)
HULK HOGAN
30 Apr 2009, 20:21
Yes, well that's all well and good except "us not being a realistic chance at being anywhere near the premiership this year" AND "I realise it's a long shot and personally feel Geelong are already over the line" are pretty much mutually exclusive. You can't say "realistically we AREN'T a chance but we ARE a long shot chance". We didn't "pinch" games against Carlton and Collingwood, if we had been more accurate on goals in both games we could have blown out both games well before the siren. It was our poor skills that made the games so close, and those same poor skills are why we have no realistic chance of getting a flag.
Those two teams are no measurement for success anyway. If we had "pinched" games against Geelong and St Kilda then maybe people wouldn't have called your thread an embarrassment. Honestly, we could be 5-0 and we'd still be nowhere near a flag because all five teams we have played so far have been average. (Which is not to say I'd spit at being 5-0, I'd like us to be. But it still wouldn't be a real indication of our flag chances)
Do you think we can make the final 8 Enki?
Do you think we can make the final 8 Enki?
It's possible, but not at all probable. Even if we do I'd expect us to get knocked out quickly. Of course even making it there would be rewarding, but sometimes it's not all about the position you end in.
As I said in another thread, it's not just physical maturity we lack, it's also mental maturity. In the early stages of this year we have shown we can control entire portions of games but don't leave much impact on the scoreboard to show it. To me, it seems that even when we aren't at a physical disadvantage (like we will be against Geelong and St Kilda etc.) we still don't have the mental experience both as individual players and as a team to really take our opportunities and make opponents pay.
We lack consistency; both within games and across games. As I said IMO Carlton are average but were reasonable when we played them and yet we won, we were still inconsistent between quarters but we still got the win. Yet we played terrible against North and lost. This shows that like last year we are still a team that will be up and down, we have a few experienced players to take our average age on paper up but we have plenty of young kids and guys with few AFL games. We will have to wait for a few of our players to mature both physically and mentally before we have a team that looks like an actual, "realistic" chance to challenge for a flag.
Honestly, I think we are probably ~4years away from even potentially being close to challenging for a premiership. Even that is dependent on drafting, players living up to potential, injuries and other elements. Statistically very few teams do (or have done) a "baby bombers" and come from outside the top 8 to take a flag which is why even an allusion to that team was frowned on by other posters. In this age of draft equalisation few teams even do a Hawthorn and jump into finals one year and challenge for a flag the next. If we were a team that looked like ending up somewhere between, lets say, 5th-8th quite probably, then this thread wouldn't have garnered the critical posts it. But we aren't, even if we sneak into top 8 we are not a team that looks like doing serious damage in finals and I have to say all the replies I read were pretty measured when judged by that standard.
BringBackCransberg
30 Apr 2009, 21:03
Some at the club were saying in the media that they thought 10 wins would probably get us a finals place. 7 to go, from 17. If the assumption still holds I don't think it's a question of us 'pinching' a finals spot, from here on in, more like us f**cking up somewhere along the line (if we don't finish in the 8).
However, our premiership chance is <2% I reckon. Although we've shown this season that we can stand up in the big games, we've only won those games by less than a goal. We've held our own, and fallen over the line. We can't fool ourselves into thinking that second part is reasonably likely to happen in the finals, let alone against teams much better than Carlton and Collingwood. So it pretty much comes down to this -- we're not a bottom three team. The evenness in the middle ranks of the league is what gives us the <2% premiership chance.
Bomber32
30 Apr 2009, 21:26
We certainly won't win the flag this year.
A place in the finals is a reasonable possibility, though.
Amazing Bombers
1 May 2009, 18:53
Not a chance, our young bodies will get smashed in the finals, if we even make it that far!
as far as this year goes;
Cats>>>>Saints>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Hawks>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Rest
Saints haven't beaten anyone decent.
Port,Fremantle,West Coast, Adelaide and Sydney. Don't rate any of them at the moment.
I'd have it as Cats>>>>>>>>>>>>Hawks>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Saints. Sure the ladder doesn't currently reflect it , but come back in a few rounds time, anyone remember the streak video?
As for the question, I don't think we are a chance, but funny things happen, I'll just be happy making the finals, and maybe winning 1 game in the finals though.:)
Yet the Hawks have lost to Sydney, Port and barely managed to account for West Coast. It's clear that at this point of the season St Kilda are in much better form than the Hawks. Whether that changes when the Hawks get some of their injured players back is another question, but doesn't it say something when the Hawks can't even beat the some of the teams you "don't rate at the moment".
sweet_as
1 May 2009, 23:05
Why not?
Where there's life, there's hope.....
Stranger things have happened - Bradbury, Greece winning the Euro Championship.
The only way could would be if Geelong or Hawthorn fell over in terms of injuries and we had a magic run from now.
It's the reason I watch footy. Win enough games to play finals and then somehow have it all come together. Play finals and let someone become the new Michael Long... DREAM PEOPLE DREAM!!!!!!!!
but hell still hasnt frozen over...
im a devoted one-eyed bomber supporter... but i think we should worry about getting within 80 points of st. kilda... then we worry about geelong
its gunna take more than ablett to do a knee... they'd probably hav to have about 10 freak knee injuries lol
saying that though we look good wen we r playing properly and finals should be there this season
OzBomber
2 May 2009, 00:03
... and I though we were getting cocky after winning 4 in a row in 2007. :o
Some at the club were saying in the media that they thought 10 wins would probably get us a finals place. 7 to go, from 17. If the assumption still holds I don't think it's a question of us 'pinching' a finals spot, from here on in, more like us f**cking up somewhere along the line (if we don't finish in the 8).
10 wins to get a finals berth would mean a massive log-jam and percentage vaguaries. 11 wins would mean most likely, and 12 a certainty. i would never expect to play finals with just 10 wins.
Stiggitupem
2 May 2009, 10:57
It's possible, but not at all probable. Even if we do I'd expect us to get knocked out quickly. Of course even making it there would be rewarding, but sometimes it's not all about the position you end in.
As I said in another thread, it's not just physical maturity we lack, it's also mental maturity. In the early stages of this year we have shown we can control entire portions of games but don't leave much impact on the scoreboard to show it. To me, it seems that even when we aren't at a physical disadvantage (like we will be against Geelong and St Kilda etc.) we still don't have the mental experience both as individual players and as a team to really take our opportunities and make opponents pay.
We lack consistency; both within games and across games. As I said IMO Carlton are average but were reasonable when we played them and yet we won, we were still inconsistent between quarters but we still got the win. Yet we played terrible against North and lost. This shows that like last year we are still a team that will be up and down, we have a few experienced players to take our average age on paper up but we have plenty of young kids and guys with few AFL games. We will have to wait for a few of our players to mature both physically and mentally before we have a team that looks like an actual, "realistic" chance to challenge for a flag.
Honestly, I think we are probably ~4years away from even potentially being close to challenging for a premiership. Even that is dependent on drafting, players living up to potential, injuries and other elements. Statistically very few teams do (or have done) a "baby bombers" and come from outside the top 8 to take a flag which is why even an allusion to that team was frowned on by other posters. In this age of draft equalisation few teams even do a Hawthorn and jump into finals one year and challenge for a flag the next. If we were a team that looked like ending up somewhere between, lets say, 5th-8th quite probably, then this thread wouldn't have garnered the critical posts it. But we aren't, even if we sneak into top 8 we are not a team that looks like doing serious damage in finals and I have to say all the replies I read were pretty measured when judged by that standard.
Agree we are no chance this year. However, I disagree that we are "4 years from being even potentially close to challenging". I would be very disappointed if we are not challenging in 2011/12. Hawks had 9 wins in 2006, and won a flag 2 years later. The top four in 2006 were West Coast, Adelaide, Freo and Sydney - where are they all now? Things can change quickly.
We have the foundations in place - a fantastic list of young KPPs. Daniher, Pears, Ryder, Hooker, Hurley, Neagle, Gumbleton - they will mature over the next couple of years. It's smart to get the KPPs sorted first, as they take longer to mature. (I think in future Carlton will regret their recent recruiting strategy). I think our young KPPs are in the best few young groups of KPPs in the competition.
Of our current mids, only McVeigh will be 30 in 2011, so it really is a matter of "topping up" the existing group. I expect this to be our absolute focus in the 09 & 10 drafts. The 09 draft is very important for us - it's only slightly compromised, and it would be nice to have a couple of years experience in our recruits before we challenge.
Geelong, Doggies and Saints will be well and truly sliding in a couple of years. Hawks will still be thereabouts, as will Carlton, WC and Pies. We should be in a position to seriously challenge these teams in a couple of years.
tim_saints
2 May 2009, 11:02
id love to c the dons make the finals and wid a full strength side i think u cood get in and match a team lyk the doggies wid ur pace, but i think until u play saints and geelong u cant really judge were ur at for this year in my opinion tho i think u r capable of 8th maybs 7th finish but not the flag not this year anyway
OzBomber
2 May 2009, 11:28
Agree we are no chance this year. However, I disagree that we are "4 years from being even potentially close to challenging". I would be very disappointed if we are not challenging in 2011/12. Hawks had 9 wins in 2006, and won a flag 2 years later. The top four in 2006 were West Coast, Adelaide, Freo and Sydney - where are they all now? Things can change quickly. We had 10 wins in 07. Does that mean we win the flag this year? ;)
Stiggitupem
2 May 2009, 15:36
We had 10 wins in 07. Does that mean we win the flag this year? ;)
As I mentioned - we are no chance this year. We could sneak into the 8 if things fall our way, but that's it. The point is, things can change quickly. Given the solid foundations we've built for our list, I'll be disappointed if we're not top 4 (and therefore a serious challenger) in 2011. I would imagine the club would be too.
Agree we are no chance this year. However, I disagree that we are "4 years from being even potentially close to challenging". I would be very disappointed if we are not challenging in 2011/12. Hawks had 9 wins in 2006, and won a flag 2 years later. The top four in 2006 were West Coast, Adelaide, Freo and Sydney - where are they all now? Things can change quickly.
Well, I did use ~ before to 4 to try and indicate approximately 4 years. In retrospect I should have just said (4 ± 1) years, it could be three (which would be 2012) or it could be 2013/2014. As for being disappointed, well you may well be or we may make finals ahead of schedule. My point was that clubs (and supporters) can have all the schedules in the world but reality isn't neccessarily going to conform to them. Getting to where you want to be consists of many elements and if just a few go the wrong way, it can impact on the entire vision for the team going forward. As I pointed out already, very few teams rise as quickly as the Hawks so they are an abberation, not the rule. If you think we will climb the ladder to a premiership as fast as them I'd suggest you overrate our list a little (we have potential, but even if all our potential is cashed in, which is unlikely, we still miss a few things that we will need to draft for thus adding even more elements to the equation).
We have the foundations in place - a fantastic list of young KPPs. Daniher, Pears, Ryder, Hooker, Hurley, Neagle, Gumbleton - they will mature over the next couple of years. It's smart to get the KPPs sorted first, as they take longer to mature. (I think in future Carlton will regret their recent recruiting strategy). I think our young KPPs are in the best few young groups of KPPs in the competition.
See this is where my view difers from others quite often, we have drafted for the futute but the word "foundations" is misleading as most of them haven't really proven anything yet. Don't get me wrong I like the look of them, but Gumby has barely been on the park, Neagle hasn't really delivered anything yet, Daniher and Pears look like they could be good but there are no guarantees at such an early stage of their careers. In fact only Paddy has shown consistency in enough games to make a proper judgement and that wasn't even in the position he is likley to play in incoming years.
You say "they will mature over the next couple of years", but what if they don't? What if they take 3 to 4 years (quite reasonable for KPPs, some come on faster and others you have to be more patient with) and a few don't make it. My intention isn't to look at everything from a negative angle, it's to point out that you seem to have a predetermined timeline of how things should go, but it assumes things that haven't happened yet. If all those KPP players you listed had a year of experience behind them and we coming into their second, then assuming no major injuries 2010 could solidify what they need to carry us towards at least challenging for a flag. But they are all very young and very inexperienced so basing any predictions around them is tenuous at best.
Of our current mids, only McVeigh will be 30 in 2011, so it really is a matter of "topping up" the existing group. I expect this to be our absolute focus in the 09 & 10 drafts. The 09 draft is very important for us - it's only slightly compromised, and it would be nice to have a couple of years experience in our recruits before we challenge.
And of our current mids, we have no real stars. It's fine to say that this will be our focus in the next couple of drafts (and I too hope we draft a midfielder with our first pick in the near future), the problem is now you have gone from basing you expectations on unproven KPP on our list to players we haven't even drafted yet. This doesn't neccessarily mean we can't challenge for a premiership in 11/12, just that you are once again basing your predictions on players that haven't shown they can support these predictions (or in this case haven't even been drafted yet). You have identified the midfield as needing more quality, stating you expect it to be our "absolute focus", yet then state that "it would be nice to have a couple of years experience in our recruits before we challenge" as if they are just along for the ride. No, they will need to step up and play an integral role to getting there, and asking young midfielders to help a team to a flag isn't as easy as the Hawks made it look.
If you only take one thing away from my post then make it this, I would love to be up challenging for (a shot at?) a premiership by 2011 and I don't discount it as an impossibility. The problem is too many Essendon supporters seem to think that they deserve it because we have been out of finals for so long and then set an abritrary date that they think if fair, this expectation then shapes their view of the playing list instead of the other way around. I generally try to look a couple of years ahead, but trying to predict when we will seriously challenge for a premiership based on a list that has yet to make finals and has plenty of holes yet to be addressed seems like stretching it.
Finally, my estimation of 2013/2014 is merely a conservative figure that is subject to change in any given year due to players maturing quicker than they should have or drafted players making an impact straight away (e.g. a Daniel Rich prospect). Having said that I expect it will take 2010/2011 for all of our young players (and the ones we have yet to draft) to really mature and by then Lloyd/Lucas/Fletcher will probably all be retiring so that will place even more responsibility on the next generation. I'm not saying they can't get us there, just that challenging for a premiership is the culmination of so many factors that even teams that look like they should have gotten there sometimes miss out numerous times in a row. Saying you will be disappointed if a young team doesn't challenge for a flag in three years time is just setting yourself up for disappointment (just like people who thought in 2004 that we would be back at the top by 07/08). Of course I don't mean to suggest you shouldn't have hope or be excited by our young kids, I just believe in tempering expectations with a little pragmatism.
We need to be realistic with our assessments !
We have a young side topped up with 3 veterans, and a few mid range players.
The young players will have periods of inconsistency, the mid range players are improving but still haven't reached a consistent level and of 3 veterans , one is struggling, one can inconsistent and one is incredibly consistent.
And we are 2 reasonably serious injuries away from suffering a loss of form.
Yep. It's ours in the bag.
bOmBeR_BoY1
2 May 2009, 23:15
AGAIN - a repeat to DELETE this thread.
What an embarrassment seriously and sums up pretty well how delusional a lot of our supporters are. Get with the program guys - a 9th to 12th beckons for 2009 if we are good enough. Keep the flag talk to the big guns.
AGAIN - a repeat to DELETE this thread.
What an embarrassment seriously and sums up pretty well how delusional a lot of our supporters are. Get with the program guys - a 9th to 12th beckons for 2009 if we are good enough. Keep the flag talk to the big guns.I agree that it's embarrassing. If Carlton were to do a thread like this, I'd find it very amusing. I can't really delete it though, so long as it has people talking and isn't breaking any rules.
I agree that it's embarrassing. If Carlton were to do a thread like this, I'd find it very amusing. I can't really delete it though, so long as it has people talking and isn't breaking any rules.
Well don't keep posting in it, you'll just keep it up the top of our board and it will show up on the AFL teams board as the most current Essendon thread.
Oh no, what have I done? :eek:
Griffs_Revenge
3 May 2009, 00:56
One of the funnier threads I have read in a long time, was pissing myself laughing reading the OP, Essendon would be doing very well and be lucky to make the 8 not pinching flags.
id love to c the dons make the finals and wid a full strength side i think u cood get in and match a team lyk the doggies wid ur pace, but i think until u play saints and geelong u cant really judge were ur at for this year in my opinion tho i think u r capable of 8th maybs 7th finish but not the flag not this year anyway
Is this even English, it's like reading an eight year old foreign student trying to put together some new form of English language.
AGAIN - a repeat to DELETE this thread.
What an embarrassment seriously and sums up pretty well how delusional a lot of our supporters are. Get with the program guys - a 9th to 12th beckons for 2009 if we are good enough. Keep the flag talk to the big guns.
Hows it an embarrassment? The thread is about finding out wether we were in the next group below Hawthorn, Geelong and the Saints and if so were we in a position to steal a flag.
1999-2004 Essendon and Port Adelaide dominated the regular season yet walked away with 2 flags and only 3 grand final appearances in those 6 years. The ladder now doesn't mean late september action.
I suppose I should of gone and started a thread about how Lucas needs to go or how Ryder is a muppet and Watson can't kick. Or I could sit online waiting for our game to finish then open a thread about changes for the next round and want to ommit 6 players for players in worse form in the reserves that wouldn't be embarrassing at all now would it.