GoDons
24 Jun 2009, 22:31
I've had a bit of time this week, so I thought I'd conjure something up for what's a massive match.
PREVIEW: ROUND 13 ESSENDON VS. CARLTON
There’s always been hype before this clash, but this time round it’s over and above anything it’s been for many, many years.
Of course, this is not entirely surprising. Both sides have signalled signs of resurrection this year to both sit 6 and 6; clinging to spots in the 8 and for the first time in years, this game isn’t about sorting out the bottom half of the eight; this is about claiming a spot. What better time to make a statement?
Furthermore, the round 3 encounter will do nothing to dowse the desire of these two sides; Carlton looking to bounce back, Essendon looking to rub their rival’s faces in the dirt again.
Confidence will be high in both camps with the Dons able to boast 4 consecutive victories over their opponents and the Blues coming off two encouraging displays against strong opposition in the Lions and the Saints.
Another classic beckons in the long history between these two sides which seems to be at the beginning of a new chapter.
THE TEAMS (likely)
Essendon
B: McPhee Pears H. Slattery
HB: Dempsey Fletcher Dyson
C: Lovett Watson Stanton
HF: Monfries Lucas Winderlich
F: Lonergan Lloyd Davey
Foll: Ryder Welsh Prismall
Inter: Hooker Reimers Skipworth Hocking
IN: H. Slattery
OUT: McVeigh (suspended)
The Knights era at Essendon seems to have reduced the guessing game at selection somewhat, and it appears that there’ll only be the one change with Henry Slattery returning from a hamstring twinge to take the place of the suspended Mark McVeigh. Nathan Lovett-Murray is the other one Knights has said to be around the mark but whilst his versatility could be of use, he hasn’t played a competitive game of football for some time and I think we’ll be better placed having him find his feet at Bendigo. With Bendigo having missed the last 2 weeks, no one’s had an opportunity to put their hand up for selection, so there are no other standout candidates to play.
Looking at that side, McVeigh’s going to be a big loss. His hard body would’ve been of great use against Carlton’s strong midfield and he adds a goal kicking option in addition to being a guy we can turn to if someone’s getting away from us in defence. Henry Slattery, whilst much maligned, is a good inclusion. He did the job on Eddie Betts last time round, holding him to just 9 touches and 2 goals in what’s been a prolific season for Eddie. If he matches that effort, it’ll take us some way to reducing Carlton’s attacking danger.
Compared to last time round, this side probably boasts some more hardened bodies in the midfield with the inclusions of Prismall, Welsh and Lonergan. However, the loss of David Hille is certainly a big one. As always, it’s very quick and no doubt Dempsey, Lovett, Winderlich, Davey, Stanton, Dyson and Reimers will be looking forward to playing on the more ‘roomy’ MCG.
Carlton
B: Thornton Jamison Joseph
HB: Stevens Bower Armfield
C: Gibbs Judd Simpson
HF: Houlihan O’hAilpin Carrazzo
F: Betts Fevola Garlett
Foll: Kreuzer Grigg Murphy
Inter: Hampson Scotland Browne Bannister
IN: Thornton
OUT: Austin (omitted)
Brett Ratten’s indicated the possibility of only one change with Bret Thornton a chance to return to the side and I get the feeling he might take the place of the inexperienced Mark Austin. With McPhee’s return to defence and without the presence of Laycock or Hille pushing forward, Lloyd and Lucas aside, Essendon aren’t putting out an enormous forward line, and I see the only way for Thornton to return is at the expense of another tall defender.
From last time, Jamison’s probably the big in and he’ll no doubt be looking to quell the influence of Matthew Lloyd who’s taken a liking to Carlton in recent times. The big out is Jarrad Waite. One of the key factors in Essendon getting back into the match last time round was Waite being forced into a more accountable role after quarter time and not being able to drive Carlton off the half back line. Breaking down Essendon across half back has been a challenge for most sides this season, and Carlton losing their best rebounder and a strong marking target will do them no favours in this area.
THE KEY PLAYERS
Matthew Lloyd: When Lloyd fires, we’re a very hard side to beat. Lloydy will be looking to create as many contests as he can on Friday night to bring the smaller plays into the frame and hopefully kick a few himself. His record against Carlton in recent times has been very good, averaging just short of 5 goals a match, and Jamison will have a big task in stopping him.
Jobe Watson: We may have more clearance options than last time, but Jobe’s still the best and most prolific option we have. He’s had an outstanding season and if he can stand up around the stoppages, he’ll play our runners into space.
Andrew Lovett: He’s our game breaker and we’ve seen all season how quickly he can influence a game. If you give him space, he’ll hurt you.
Patrick Ryder: Will need to put in an enormous effort again but one would imagine, having had an easier load against Melbourne and a week off prior to that, he’ll be primed for another big night. So far, it’s the big bodies that have caused him most of the little concern he’s had, so he should be feeling fairly comfortable against the likes of Hampson and Kreuzer who are more the type to jump at the ball.
Courtenay Dempsey: We all should remember what happened in the last quarter last time, but if you don’t, go back and have a look because it’s worth remembering. He destroyed Jeff Garlett, and took us a long way to winning. His pace is worrying for Carlton off half back, and he’s also been very useful chopping out for his fellow defenders.
Brendan Fevola: Fev’s always a massive factor, even if his recent heroic efforts against us have proved to be in vain. If we allow him the corridor, he’ll kick a bag. What we’ve got to hope for is a repeat effort from the midfield last time round. If we can fill his space in front, we’ll push him wide, and as we saw last time, even he struggles to kick goals from the boundary line.
Chris Judd: He’s one of best players in the league, if not the best. He’s no doubt going to have an impact, for us it’s about making sure it’s not a match winning impact. Andrew Welsh will most likely get first crack, and let’s hope he’s got enough in the tank to go with him. It is reassuring to have a back up option in Heath Hocking, as opposed to last time where Hocking was just about the lone candidate.
Paul Bower: I think how Bower plays will have a big impact on this match. Nick Riewoldt may have kicked 5 goals on him, but Bower was an offensive weapon. I get the feeling he’ll go to Scott Lucas and that’ll be an intriguing match-up. If Bower over-commits up the ground, Lucas will make him pay as he made Adelaide pay, afterall, he still knows where to be. However, he’ll struggle to go with Bower up the ground and Bower could add numbers to Carlton coming out of defence.
Eddie Betts: He was well held by Slattery last time, and as mentioned earlier, Slattery’s back to try and do the same again. However, if Eddie’s on, he’s a tough man to stop, and can potentially be an all important second avenue to goal for the Blues.
Bryce Gibbs: Bryce failed to take advantage of Essendon’s offensive game style last time, so if he’s able to do so this time he could make a difference. He’s a great user of the ball, and we’ve seen guys like Pendlebury hurt us with their ball use a few times this season.
STRENGTHS
Our major strength is no secret – pace. If we’re up and running, it’s hard to see another side being able to catch us. Given Carlton wouldn’t be one of the quicker sides in the competition with most of the guys with a bit of toe being defensive players, this is an area we can exploit them. When the game opens up, inevitably it will, if the likes of Lovett, Dempsey, Winderlich, Davey, Stanton, Dyson and Reimers are able to get their hands on it, opportunities will open up for Lloyd and Lucas and we’ll have a clear way to goal.
The other area where we’re strong is locking the ball in across half forward. Opposition defences have struggled to cleanly work the ball out of defence quickly all season, and if we’re able to reproduce, it’ll take us a long way to limiting Fevola’s impact. Basically, if we can slow their movement, our midfielders can fill the hole in front of Fev as they did last time and push him wide on the lead where it’s harder to convert.
WEAKNESSES
Our major weakness is no doubt in the middle of the ground. Against Adelaide especially, we conceded the ball out of the middle far too easily. The likes of Judd, Gibbs and Murphy are just as capable as the Adelaide midfield, and a big task lies ahead of Watson, Hocking, Prismall, Welsh and others in locking down the ball in the middle. If we let them get it out too quickly, Fevola will get opportunity and they could hurt us very quickly.
The other potential weakness is probably in the ruck when Paddy Ryder’s off the ground. Cale Hooker’s going to struggle in the taps against Hampson and Kreuzer, and if their midfield are afforded too much first opportunity it makes our task of shutting the ball down in the middle all the more difficult. Furthermore, if Hooker isn’t up to it on the night, it means Ryder’s going to have to play even more minutes and the question comes down to how long he can keep going.
THE VERDICT
It’s a line-ball game for mine, so that’s good enough for me to back us in. The size of the MCG makes it very hard to shut down the corridor, and I feel our runners will be good enough to penetrate that space and play Lucas and Lloyd in. Intensity will no doubt be up through the midfielders, so I’ll back them to have the discipline to work back and fill space.
Shutting down their midfield is no easy task, but if we’re up to the challenge on the night, I reckon we’ll do it.
Essendon by 5 points.
PREVIEW: ROUND 13 ESSENDON VS. CARLTON
There’s always been hype before this clash, but this time round it’s over and above anything it’s been for many, many years.
Of course, this is not entirely surprising. Both sides have signalled signs of resurrection this year to both sit 6 and 6; clinging to spots in the 8 and for the first time in years, this game isn’t about sorting out the bottom half of the eight; this is about claiming a spot. What better time to make a statement?
Furthermore, the round 3 encounter will do nothing to dowse the desire of these two sides; Carlton looking to bounce back, Essendon looking to rub their rival’s faces in the dirt again.
Confidence will be high in both camps with the Dons able to boast 4 consecutive victories over their opponents and the Blues coming off two encouraging displays against strong opposition in the Lions and the Saints.
Another classic beckons in the long history between these two sides which seems to be at the beginning of a new chapter.
THE TEAMS (likely)
Essendon
B: McPhee Pears H. Slattery
HB: Dempsey Fletcher Dyson
C: Lovett Watson Stanton
HF: Monfries Lucas Winderlich
F: Lonergan Lloyd Davey
Foll: Ryder Welsh Prismall
Inter: Hooker Reimers Skipworth Hocking
IN: H. Slattery
OUT: McVeigh (suspended)
The Knights era at Essendon seems to have reduced the guessing game at selection somewhat, and it appears that there’ll only be the one change with Henry Slattery returning from a hamstring twinge to take the place of the suspended Mark McVeigh. Nathan Lovett-Murray is the other one Knights has said to be around the mark but whilst his versatility could be of use, he hasn’t played a competitive game of football for some time and I think we’ll be better placed having him find his feet at Bendigo. With Bendigo having missed the last 2 weeks, no one’s had an opportunity to put their hand up for selection, so there are no other standout candidates to play.
Looking at that side, McVeigh’s going to be a big loss. His hard body would’ve been of great use against Carlton’s strong midfield and he adds a goal kicking option in addition to being a guy we can turn to if someone’s getting away from us in defence. Henry Slattery, whilst much maligned, is a good inclusion. He did the job on Eddie Betts last time round, holding him to just 9 touches and 2 goals in what’s been a prolific season for Eddie. If he matches that effort, it’ll take us some way to reducing Carlton’s attacking danger.
Compared to last time round, this side probably boasts some more hardened bodies in the midfield with the inclusions of Prismall, Welsh and Lonergan. However, the loss of David Hille is certainly a big one. As always, it’s very quick and no doubt Dempsey, Lovett, Winderlich, Davey, Stanton, Dyson and Reimers will be looking forward to playing on the more ‘roomy’ MCG.
Carlton
B: Thornton Jamison Joseph
HB: Stevens Bower Armfield
C: Gibbs Judd Simpson
HF: Houlihan O’hAilpin Carrazzo
F: Betts Fevola Garlett
Foll: Kreuzer Grigg Murphy
Inter: Hampson Scotland Browne Bannister
IN: Thornton
OUT: Austin (omitted)
Brett Ratten’s indicated the possibility of only one change with Bret Thornton a chance to return to the side and I get the feeling he might take the place of the inexperienced Mark Austin. With McPhee’s return to defence and without the presence of Laycock or Hille pushing forward, Lloyd and Lucas aside, Essendon aren’t putting out an enormous forward line, and I see the only way for Thornton to return is at the expense of another tall defender.
From last time, Jamison’s probably the big in and he’ll no doubt be looking to quell the influence of Matthew Lloyd who’s taken a liking to Carlton in recent times. The big out is Jarrad Waite. One of the key factors in Essendon getting back into the match last time round was Waite being forced into a more accountable role after quarter time and not being able to drive Carlton off the half back line. Breaking down Essendon across half back has been a challenge for most sides this season, and Carlton losing their best rebounder and a strong marking target will do them no favours in this area.
THE KEY PLAYERS
Matthew Lloyd: When Lloyd fires, we’re a very hard side to beat. Lloydy will be looking to create as many contests as he can on Friday night to bring the smaller plays into the frame and hopefully kick a few himself. His record against Carlton in recent times has been very good, averaging just short of 5 goals a match, and Jamison will have a big task in stopping him.
Jobe Watson: We may have more clearance options than last time, but Jobe’s still the best and most prolific option we have. He’s had an outstanding season and if he can stand up around the stoppages, he’ll play our runners into space.
Andrew Lovett: He’s our game breaker and we’ve seen all season how quickly he can influence a game. If you give him space, he’ll hurt you.
Patrick Ryder: Will need to put in an enormous effort again but one would imagine, having had an easier load against Melbourne and a week off prior to that, he’ll be primed for another big night. So far, it’s the big bodies that have caused him most of the little concern he’s had, so he should be feeling fairly comfortable against the likes of Hampson and Kreuzer who are more the type to jump at the ball.
Courtenay Dempsey: We all should remember what happened in the last quarter last time, but if you don’t, go back and have a look because it’s worth remembering. He destroyed Jeff Garlett, and took us a long way to winning. His pace is worrying for Carlton off half back, and he’s also been very useful chopping out for his fellow defenders.
Brendan Fevola: Fev’s always a massive factor, even if his recent heroic efforts against us have proved to be in vain. If we allow him the corridor, he’ll kick a bag. What we’ve got to hope for is a repeat effort from the midfield last time round. If we can fill his space in front, we’ll push him wide, and as we saw last time, even he struggles to kick goals from the boundary line.
Chris Judd: He’s one of best players in the league, if not the best. He’s no doubt going to have an impact, for us it’s about making sure it’s not a match winning impact. Andrew Welsh will most likely get first crack, and let’s hope he’s got enough in the tank to go with him. It is reassuring to have a back up option in Heath Hocking, as opposed to last time where Hocking was just about the lone candidate.
Paul Bower: I think how Bower plays will have a big impact on this match. Nick Riewoldt may have kicked 5 goals on him, but Bower was an offensive weapon. I get the feeling he’ll go to Scott Lucas and that’ll be an intriguing match-up. If Bower over-commits up the ground, Lucas will make him pay as he made Adelaide pay, afterall, he still knows where to be. However, he’ll struggle to go with Bower up the ground and Bower could add numbers to Carlton coming out of defence.
Eddie Betts: He was well held by Slattery last time, and as mentioned earlier, Slattery’s back to try and do the same again. However, if Eddie’s on, he’s a tough man to stop, and can potentially be an all important second avenue to goal for the Blues.
Bryce Gibbs: Bryce failed to take advantage of Essendon’s offensive game style last time, so if he’s able to do so this time he could make a difference. He’s a great user of the ball, and we’ve seen guys like Pendlebury hurt us with their ball use a few times this season.
STRENGTHS
Our major strength is no secret – pace. If we’re up and running, it’s hard to see another side being able to catch us. Given Carlton wouldn’t be one of the quicker sides in the competition with most of the guys with a bit of toe being defensive players, this is an area we can exploit them. When the game opens up, inevitably it will, if the likes of Lovett, Dempsey, Winderlich, Davey, Stanton, Dyson and Reimers are able to get their hands on it, opportunities will open up for Lloyd and Lucas and we’ll have a clear way to goal.
The other area where we’re strong is locking the ball in across half forward. Opposition defences have struggled to cleanly work the ball out of defence quickly all season, and if we’re able to reproduce, it’ll take us a long way to limiting Fevola’s impact. Basically, if we can slow their movement, our midfielders can fill the hole in front of Fev as they did last time and push him wide on the lead where it’s harder to convert.
WEAKNESSES
Our major weakness is no doubt in the middle of the ground. Against Adelaide especially, we conceded the ball out of the middle far too easily. The likes of Judd, Gibbs and Murphy are just as capable as the Adelaide midfield, and a big task lies ahead of Watson, Hocking, Prismall, Welsh and others in locking down the ball in the middle. If we let them get it out too quickly, Fevola will get opportunity and they could hurt us very quickly.
The other potential weakness is probably in the ruck when Paddy Ryder’s off the ground. Cale Hooker’s going to struggle in the taps against Hampson and Kreuzer, and if their midfield are afforded too much first opportunity it makes our task of shutting the ball down in the middle all the more difficult. Furthermore, if Hooker isn’t up to it on the night, it means Ryder’s going to have to play even more minutes and the question comes down to how long he can keep going.
THE VERDICT
It’s a line-ball game for mine, so that’s good enough for me to back us in. The size of the MCG makes it very hard to shut down the corridor, and I feel our runners will be good enough to penetrate that space and play Lucas and Lloyd in. Intensity will no doubt be up through the midfielders, so I’ll back them to have the discipline to work back and fill space.
Shutting down their midfield is no easy task, but if we’re up to the challenge on the night, I reckon we’ll do it.
Essendon by 5 points.