Super Six Scenarios

[Kenny_01]

Pool A

After India's win against England:

Aus - 16 from 4.
Ind- 16 from 5.
Eng- 12 from 5.
Pak- 8 from 4.
Zim- 8 from 4.

Assuming: Aus beat Nam, Zim beat Holl.

Aus - 20 from 5.
Ind- 16 from 5.
Eng- 12 from 5.
Zim- 12 from 5.
Pak- 8 from 4.

8 possible scenarios:

1) Ind beat Pak, Aus beat Eng and Pak beat Zim.
- Aus, Ind qualify
- Team with best NRR out of Eng, Pak and Zim qualifies

2) Ind beat Pak, Aus beat Eng and Zim beat Pak.
- Aus, Ind, Zim qualify

3) Ind beat Pak, Eng beat Aus and Pak beat Zim.
- Aus, Ind and Eng qualify

4) Ind beat Pak, Eng beat Aus and Zim beat Pak.
- Aus Ind and Zim qualify

5) Pak beat Ind, Aus beat Eng and Pak beat Zim.
- Aus, Pak and Ind qualify

6) Pak beat Ind, Aus beat Eng and Zim beat Pak.
- Aus, Ind and Zim qualify

7) Pak beat Ind, Eng beat Aus and Pak beat Zim.
- Aus qualify
- The two teams with highest NRR out of Pak, Ind and Eng qualify

8) Pak beat Ind, Eng beat Aus and Zim beat Pak.
- Aus, Ind and Zim qualify



Pool B

After New Zealand's win:

SL - 12 from 4.
NZ- 12 from 5.
Ken - 12 from 4.
WI - 10 from 4.
SA - 8 from 4.

Assuming: SA beat Can, Ken beat Ban, NZ beat Can, WI beat Ken.

Ken - 16 from 6.
NZ - 16 from 6.
WI - 14 from 5.
SL - 12 from 4.
SA - 12 from 5.

4 possible scenarios:

1.) SL beat WI and SA beat SL.
- SA, Ken and SL qualify

2.) WI beat SL and SA beat SL.
- WI, NZ and SA qualify*

3.) WI beat SL and SL beat SA.
- WI, Ken and SL qualify

4.) SL beat WI and SL beat SA.
- SL, NZ and Ken qualify


*This came down to NRR, but since Kenya's NRR isn't great, it is safe to assume they won't make it through NRR.

[St-KriS]

Did you work that out by urself? :confused:

[Kenny_01]

Most of it. Only took about 10-15 mins.

[red+black]

Originally posted by Kenny_01
Pool A

8 possible scenarios:

1) Ind beat Pak, Aus beat Eng and Pak beat Zim.
- Aus, Ind qualify
- Team with best NRR out of Eng, Pak and Zim qualifies

2) Ind beat Pak, Aus beat Eng and Zim beat Pak.
- Aus, Ind, Zim qualify

One of these should occur.

Pool B

Assuming: ... WI beat Ken.

I wouldn't assume that.

4 possible scenarios:

2.) WI beat SL and SA beat SL.
- WI, NZ and SA qualify*

*This came down to NRR, but since Kenya's NRR isn't great, it is safe to assume they won't make it through NRR.
I think this will happen and agree that Kenya will probably not qualify UNLESS they beat the West Indies.

[piefan2002]

NRR IS IRRELEVANT IF YOU ARE ON EQUAL POINTS WITH ANOTHER TEAM AND YOU HAVE DEFEATED THEM.
THAT IS WHAT I THINK.

[ScouseCat]

Originally posted by piefan2002
NRR IS IRRELEVANT IF YOU ARE ON EQUAL POINTS WITH ANOTHER TEAM AND YOU HAVE DEFEATED THEM. THAT IS WHAT I THINK.

You are absolutely correct.

Net Run Rate only comes into it if teams can't be seperated by head-to-head meetings. This is most likely to happen if three teams end up on the same number of points.

For example: England, Zimbabwe and Pakistan end up on 12 points... England beat Pakistan who beat Zimbabwe who beat England, therefore it is decided by net run rate.

As far as I'm concerned, the crunch games in each group are:

POOL A:
Pakistan vs India
Pakistan vs Zimbabwe
Australia vs England (for the Poms)

POOL B:
West Indies vs Sri Lanka
South Africa vs Sri Lanka
Kenya vs West Indies

[DaveW]

Interesting thing is that England can't make it now unless Zimbabwe lose one their two remaining matches. Zimbabwe will likely beat Holland so they need Pakistan to win in Bulawayo.

[ScouseCat]

Originally posted by DaveW
Interesting thing is that England can't make it now unless Zimbabwe lose one their two remaining matches. Zimbabwe will likely beat Holland so they need Pakistan to win in Bulawayo.

Hang on a minute, they could beat Australia.... oh wait you're right, they need Pakistan to beat Zimbabwe and lose to India. :p

[Kenny_01]

Originally posted by piefan2002
NRR IS IRRELEVANT IF YOU ARE ON EQUAL POINTS WITH ANOTHER TEAM AND YOU HAVE DEFEATED THEM.
THAT IS WHAT I THINK.

Yes, I've taken that into consideration.

[GoEagles]

In the last 2 World Cup's has the NRR been more important than the head-to-head record or is this the first World Cup where H2H has counted for more?

[spring6]

Pretty sure it was the same last time.

[DaveW]

Originally posted by GoEagles
In the last 2 World Cup's has the NRR been more important than the head-to-head record or is this the first World Cup where H2H has counted for more?
The head-to-head rule applied in the 1999 world cup, however it didn't make a difference. There was a 3-way tie in both groups and the super six, each time all three teams had with one win apiece, and a 2-way tie where the result between the two was a no result. So net run rate (the best separator anyway) applied every time.

Apparently it was around 1996 that the head-to-head rule was introduced. Not sure if it was before or after the world cup though. There were two 2-way ties in one group - both times the team with the favourable H2H result also had superior NRR!

[DaveW]

Originally posted by ScouseCat
Hang on a minute, they could beat Australia.... oh wait you're right, they need Pakistan to beat Zimbabwe and lose to India. :p
It doesn't matter if they beat Australia, if Zimbabwe finish equal on 4 wins, Zimbabwe go through on H2H.

[Kenny_01]

Originally posted by ScouseCat
Hang on a minute, they could beat Australia.... oh wait you're right, they need Pakistan to beat Zimbabwe and lose to India. :p

For England to make it...

- They must hope Zimbabwe loses to Pakistan
- Hope India beat Pakistan (if England beat AUS they are in, if they lose to AUS, comes down to NRR).


If India don't beat Pakistan, for England to make it, they have to hope Zim loses to Pakistan and they have to beat Australia. Then it will come down to NRR. They should make it though because they have a decent NRR and a win can't reduce a NRR much.

So basically, if England beat Australia, they will be hoping Zim lose to Pak, then they will basically make it. If they don't, they will also be hoping Ind beat Pak.

[EagleBlue]

Originally posted by red+black


I think this will happen and agree that Kenya will probably not qualify UNLESS they beat the West Indies.

Wrong, Kenya will make it simply by beating Bangladesh as they have the H2H over NZ (who can only get 4 wins) and SL (who can get 5 wins but to do this they will have to beat either SAF or WI therefore putting them out)

[red+black]

Originally posted by EagleBlue
Wrong, Kenya will make it simply by beating Bangladesh as they have the H2H over NZ (who can only get 4 wins) and SL (who can get 5 wins but to do this they will have to beat either SAF or WI therefore putting them out)
H2H won't matter v Sri Lanka if SL lose their 2 games. I think Kenya, RSA and NZ will finish on 16, whereby Kenya goes out on NRR.

But I do hope they go through.

Can't believe their test status has been put off for at least 5 years. That means another 5 years of crap from Bangladesh, and South Africa claiming #1 status because of a series win against them :rolleyes:

[red+black]

Originally posted by EagleBlue
Wrong, Kenya will make it simply by beating Bangladesh as they have the H2H over NZ (who can only get 4 wins) and SL (who can get 5 wins but to do this they will have to beat either SAF or WI therefore putting them out)

I defer to your greater wisdom. After Sri Lanka defeated the West Indies, I agree that Kenya will go through, and I think I have it figured out:

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?s=&threadid=60133