Top 4 Within Reach

[kelvin_sheedy]

There's no reason why we can't finish top 4 this year. Yes, you heard it right TOP 4!

My early thoughts were we'd struggle to match last years output with the loss of key personnel but there are a few things falling our way:

1. Injuries - we don't have any and most of our players have had their best preseason ever.
2. There's a core 22-30 group who should be hitting peak.
3. The rest of the league are falling over like domino's
4. The emergence of Pears and Hooker as bonafide key defenders.
5. Mature bodies waiting in reserve.
6. Hille and Ryder combination should give us good value.

My expectations have been elevated. The talk form the coaches and staff are that we should improve and there's no more excuses.

Top 4 folks, top 4.

[fodzilla]

You're having a laugh.

He's having a laugh.

[Lance Uppercut]

good post Kelvin, I couldn't agree more.

If you read the Richmond supporters talk about the game at Morwell, they talk about how much bigger we were, how much faster and stronger we were.

We have a most un-Essendon like injury list; two of the best rucks in the game, fit; the best young KPP stocks in the league, and a potential premiership spine.

Add that to the across the board improvement, and the fact that we have a whole bunch of quality kids about to enter their most productive years, I also believe top 4 is a genuine chance this year

[Slattery_20]

good post Kelvin, I couldn't agree more.

If you read the Richmond supporters talk about the game at Morwell, they talk about how much bigger we were, how much faster and stronger we were.

We have a most un-Essendon like injury list; two of the best rucks in the game, fit; the best young KPP stocks in the league, and a potential premiership spine.

Add that to the across the board improvement, and the fact that we have a whole bunch of quality kids about to enter their most productive years, I also believe top 4 is a genuine chance this year
That's compared to Richmond, who've cut heaps of bodies from what they had last year - which wasn't much. Hold those horses.

In terms of injuries, we're in much better shape this time of the year than I can remember, bar 2000.

Hawks are (at best) going to start slowly with injuries. Have a look down their list, they've only got 20-odd players with any experience, and 8 of them are starting with a knock.
Crows similar, plenty injured, will start slow.
We're a better side than the Blues. So there's 2 finals possies we could move up.

Top 4 would slightly surprise, but not startle. Top 6 looking more and more likely.
Only 2 sides we can't beat are the Dogs and the Cats. Fcking domesticated pets.

[Lance Uppercut]

That's compared to Richmond, who've cut heaps of bodies from what they had last year - which wasn't much. Hold those horses.


yeah nah fair enough, I'm not saying we're going to be intimidating the cats in Round One with our l337 big bodies or anything. But we're no longer the little kids, the smallest team, relying on just our pace. In coming years, we will be able to throw our weight around, starting this year against the likes of Richmond.

Plus we have a "core-group" coming through - those good players at the right age.

By no means are we a cert for top 4, but it shouldn't be taboo to talk about it. Like Kelvin, I'm a lot more "bullish" about our prospects this than your average Joe Supergoal.

Fabric repairing ;)

[kelvin_sheedy]

Adelaide and Hawthorn have injury niggles which are likely to magnify during a long season.

Adelaide also have a number of 30+ players who can't go on forever.

Carlton have lost Fev and Judd is gone for the first 3 weeks. They aren't a top 8 chance imo.

Saints, Dogs, Cats are ahead of us.

I don't think the Pies are any better when we have a full squad to choose from.

There isn't much difference between 8 or so sides. Get on a good run with injuries and play good footy and you are pushing top 4. That's where I see us.

[Slattery_20]

We need to keep the foot on against the spud teams, too.
How annoying is beating Saints then losing to Freo? Actually seems like we're losing to Subiaco, and Freo are just lucky enough to be standing there to pick up the points.

[Towno78]

Seriously, you guys are dreaming. On the back of a short injury list and destroying the worst team in the comp in a pre-season game, we are now top 4 contenders... Or even top 6?

I can't believe I'm even responding to this rubbish. It's a long season gents, and we have a lot of young bodies that won't yet go the distance. Plus when you consider Adelaide didn't even make top 4 on their form last year, we are definitely not in the ilk of the top 4 (yet). We will still be inconsistent this year with our young players, I don't expect it to be as bad as last year, but we will undoubtedly lose games we should win... And that means no top 4 for us.

This is the sort of material that I would see on another team's page and make me laugh about how stupid their supporters are!

[Slattery_20]

Adelaide and Hawthorn have injury niggles which are likely to magnify during a long season.

Adelaide also have a number of 30+ players who can't go on forever.

Carlton have lost Fev and Judd is gone for the first 3 weeks. They aren't a top 8 chance imo.

Saints, Dogs, Cats are ahead of us.

I don't think the Pies are any better when we have a full squad to choose from.

There isn't much difference between 8 or so sides. Get on a good run with injuries and play good footy and you are pushing top 4. That's where I see us.
Agree entirely.

[stugots]

hope kelvins right, signs of '93 all over again, i can live with that:thumbsu:

[The Panther]

There isn't much difference between 8 or so sides.

That's an interesting observation.

[KaaN10]

Top 3:
Geelong, St Kilda and Bulldogs.

Bottom 3:
Melbourne, Richmond and Fremantle.

Anything can happen with the other 10 teams.

[TeamHurley]

Very optimistic Kelvin. Cant see it happening but would be happy to be proven wrong.

[Slattery_20]

That's an interesting observation.
Gday Sav.
At our best, we've been able to match or beat ladder positions #2, #4, #6, #7, and #9 last year alone. It's reasonable.
Dogs, Cats, and Saints are a step up on Pies etc, and we've got no problem with the Saints.

EFC have to drastically narrow the gap between our best and worst, and we'll get the couple extra wins to hit top 6. Having a fit list - so we're not picking depth guys like Bellchambers, Quinn and Houli on a rgular basis - is a big part of that.

[The Panther]

Gday Sav.
At our best, we've been able to match or beat ladder positions #2, #4, #6, #7, and #9 last year alone. .

The trouble is "at their best" 2, 4 & 6 are quite a distance ahead of Essendon's best. It can be easily argued that they were all at their worst when they played Essendon.

[centurion]

Lucky to reach top 6 - 8 let alone top 4.

Calm down son.

[Kong]

All those in favour of banning Sav Rohan Panther from our board?

[Slattery_20]

The trouble is "at their best" 2, 4 & 6 are quite a distance ahead of Essendon's best. It can be easily argued that they were all at their worst when they played Essendon.
We could have done with our reigning B&F winner too. You can't play the injuries card when we had just as many important outs.

[Slattery_20]

All those in favour of banning Sav Rohan Panther from our board?
Not until he answers me about the other 2 seasons Paul Medhurst has kicked 50 goals... been waiting a while on that one.

[jade_00]

The trouble is "at their best" 2, 4 & 6 are quite a distance ahead of Essendon's best. It can be easily argued that they were all at their worst when they played Essendon.

How you figure? Evidence at hand would suggest otherwise.

I'm not buying into finishing fourth, I think making the eight again would be an achievement, but as to your above comment:

2. St Kilda. Were undefeated and aiming to stay that way for a season when we played them. If not for a complete fade out in the final quarter we had them beat handily. Still won by the way.

4. Lost our premier ruckman (and one of the better rucks in the league) early against the Pies on Anzac Day, and yet showed great resilience to overrun and defeat Collingwood.

6. Brisbane. Held them to a draw late in the season in a great game.

I'm not trying to say we are or are not better then any of those sides, but to say they are quite a distance ahead is clearly not true.

[Kong]

Not until he answers me about the other 2 seasons Paul Medhurst has kicked 50 goals... been waiting a while on that one.Don't forget Spikey's question re: Williams' knee condition. That's been a few months, now.

Oh and what happened to his source on the 'Hurley expelled from IGS for assault' claim?

[Daytripper]

I am so confident this year. Have had their best pre season for the last 5 years with barely an injury on the list.

Loving how everyone is underestimating the team. Lloyd and Lucas missing won't make any difference at all. They barely contributed last year and for guys like Hurley, Neagle, Gumbleton, Williams and Monfries it means they can release their shackles a little bit and play their natural game.

Hooker is having a ripping pre season and him and Pears can be an elite defensive duo by the end of the year. In fact I think Hooker has even more potential than Pears but thats my opinion only.

We have fantastic depth with only about 3 or 4 players on the main list not capable of playing AFL footy at a good consistent level.

We have the best ruck duo in the league and I saw Laycock at Windy Hill the other week and he looks super fit. He could be a real surprise packet this year - may even go forward.

Teams like Hawthorn and Carlton have massive doubts on them. We are better than them anyway and the good news is we play them twice anyway.

We are not hopeless to finish to top 4 this year and should be a lock to finish top 8.

By the way - Geelong will be missing Corey, Stokes and Varcoe for rd 1.
If we're fired up and ready to go we should beat them.

[Slattery_20]

Don't forget Spikey's question re: Williams' knee condition. That's been a few months, now.

Oh and what happened to his source on the 'Hurley expelled from IGS for assault' claim?
Flog. Good for a giggle though.

It's the nasty flogs with half a clue who worry me. The plain funny ones are alright.

[Enki]

Now I understand why kelvin whines so much during the season. With expectations like this...

[The Panther]

4. Lost our premier ruckman (and one of the better rucks in the league) early against the Pies on Anzac Day, and yet showed great resilience to overrun and defeat Collingwood..

I'm not counting injuries for either side. We had an AA player for 09 & a former AA player who happend to get over 36 disposals in the next Essendon game & has made a habit of dominating these clashes missing.

I'm talking from a form perspective. Without question, our poorest form period within the year was around Anzac Day/Round 8. As per your mate, Essendon were at their best. If you played Collingwood at their best in 09, (which would have been around Round 18/20), you wouldn't of got within 7 goals. The Adelaide final showed the difference b/w a side that had hopes for a Top 4 berth & a side who finished 8th.

[Slattery_20]

I'm not counting injuries for either side. We had an AA player for 09 & a former AA player who happend to get over 36 disposals in the next Essendon game & has made a habit of dominating these clashes missing.

I'm talking from a form perspective. Without question, our poorest form period within the year was around Anzac Day/Round 8. As per your mate, Essendon were at their best. If you played Collingwood at their best in 09, (which would have been around Round 18/20), you wouldn't of got within 7 goals. The Adelaide final showed the difference b/w a side that had hopes for a Top 4 berth & a side who finished 8th.
So your best form was when you were winning, and our best form was when we were winning? And we won when we were winning, then you won when you were winning?
Intriguing.
Do go on.

[The Panther]

So your best form was when you were winning.

We won 7 games on end in 1 strech. In another (which was when we played our best football for the year) we won 5 in a row including defeating Adelaide in Adelaide. Essendon won 3 in 5 games (during the Anzac Day period), which was their best return in 09.

It's not too hard to work out.

[Daytripper]

I'm not counting injuries for either side. We had an AA player for 09 & a former AA player who happend to get over 36 disposals in the next Essendon game & has made a habit of dominating these clashes missing.

I'm talking from a form perspective. Without question, our poorest form period within the year was around Anzac Day/Round 8. As per your mate, Essendon were at their best. If you played Collingwood at their best in 09, (which would have been around Round 18/20), you wouldn't of got within 7 goals. The Adelaide final showed the difference b/w a side that had hopes for a Top 4 berth & a side who finished 8th.

We are 50/50 for the past two seasons.

Yet when we win, there are always excuses for Cwood, yet when Cwood win there are no excuses for Essendon.

Essendon led for most of the Anzac Day match and it would have been a travesty if they got beaten. This was despite playing one man short for most of the game and with a lot of their experienced players out with injury pre game.

[The Panther]

We are 50/50 for the past two seasons.


& it's 4 / 2 in our favour since 07, a period where we've played 2 PF's. I'll buy an Essendon membership if you finish ahead of us or even make the Final 8.

[Slattery_20]

We won 7 games on end in 1 strech. In another (which was when we played our best football for the year) we won 5 in a row including defeating Adelaide in Adelaide. Essendon won 3 in 5 games (during the Anzac Day period), which was their best return in 09.

It's not too hard to work out.
Astounding.
Winning form is good form.
Anything else to offer? What colour is the sky?

[Daytripper]

& it's 4 / 2 in our favour since 07, a period where we've played 2 PF's. I'll buy an Essendon membership if you finish ahead of us or even make the Final 8.

I really don't understand the logic. :confused:

We made the 8 last year without Hille and extremely minor contributions from McVeigh, Davey and Hurley.

Yet this year we can't make the 8 with all four basically at 100% and with Gumbleton due to play some more games.

[Slattery_20]

& it's 4 / 2 in our favour since 07, a period where we've played 2 PF's. I'll buy an Essendon membership if you finish ahead of us or even make the Final 8.
No you won't.
Don't lie.
You're not even honest enough to come and say "sorry, I was wrong" in threads where you've made up BS statistics. Outlay some real, honest money??? Laughable.

[theboxmike]

middle of last year we were in the top 4 for a week weren't we? i think it's possible but more likely 6-8th

[Ben the Gooner]

The effect of the bigger bodies should come in the form of wins over Richmond, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, West Coast and North Melbourne.

Last year we had 8 points from 7 games against these sides.

This year we have 6 games, and 20 points should be the bare minimum. A loss to West Coast away wouldn't be the end of the world.

[jade_00]

I'm not counting injuries for either side. We had an AA player for 09 & a former AA player who happend to get over 36 disposals in the next Essendon game & has made a habit of dominating these clashes missing.

So? You lost Anzac Day. Then beat us later in the year. 1-1, certainly not WAY ahead of Essendon are you?

I'm talking from a form perspective. Without question, our poorest form period within the year was around Anzac Day/Round 8. As per your mate, Essendon were at their best. If you played Collingwood at their best in 09, (which would have been around Round 18/20), you wouldn't of got within 7 goals. The Adelaide final showed the difference b/w a side that had hopes for a Top 4 berth & a side who finished 8th.

So when you are in FORM you are much better - but the same doesn't apply the other way? That is of the silliest statements I've seen. "We are SO much better then you when we are in form and you are out of form" :rolleyes:

Do yourself a favour and admit your statements have been wrong. Otherwise stick around, say something stupid and have a mod card you for the effort.

[Smokin]

probably 12 months early for this thread, but we are all hoping.

A lot rests on one thing - our forwardline coming together.

It was a mess last season, and having to play Lloyd out of position, Lucas at all when clearly finished, and not having access to younger types meant it really was a problem. Take the 2nd Collingwood game, we dominated for 2 quarters of that game, yet the scoreboard looked one-sided to them. With a functioning forwardline, we could have been 4-6 goals up by quarter time alone.

We need a good Williams season, plus a break out - Gumbleton, Neagle, Laycock, the resting ruck as a freak forward, Hurley - the options are there, just need one of them to explode as a forward, and who knows what can happen...

[Macca18]

Threads like this create unnecessary ammunition for opposition supporters. We'll no doubt get a reminder of comments like the ones in these threads when we lose games this year, especially in the first half of the season. I admire the optimism of some, but best to wait and see what the first few games of the season bring us before making outlandish statements - at the moment EFC have really proven nothing to the football world and it's all speculation and "What IF Gumby stays fit?" , "What IF Hille recovers from his knee reconstruction as good as ever?" etc ... it's exciting times ahead for the club and as I said I admire the optimism of some supporters, but I doubt top 4 is realistic for Essendon this year. Would love to be proven wrong, but I highly doubt it.

[The Panther]

So when you are in FORM you are much better - but the same doesn't apply the other way? .

The Anzac Day game was a good indication, at your best (3 wins out of 5 was your seasons high) you scraped to a win. We played about 20 minutes in the entire game & should have sealed, alas we didn't. At the time we were playing horrible football. It's fair to say you were playing towards your peak.

I still want to know why there is little difference b/w 8 sides, given Adelaide's treatment of you in the final. Have you improved by over 12 goals over Summer?

[Noddy Holder]

We need to keep the foot on against the spud teams, too.
How annoying is beating Saints then losing to Freo? Actually seems like we're losing to Subiaco, and Freo are just lucky enough to be standing there to pick up the points.

This. We can't keep losing to crap teams. Freo, Kangas and Richmond are games we cannot afford to drop.

[Skeeta Olly]

I still want to know why there is little difference b/w 8 sides, given Adelaide's treatment of you in the final. Have you improved by over 12 goals over Summer?

We've improved 3 ruckman, a few forwards and a few kilos.

So probably yes. But then again, they were at their best that week and we were at our worst. :rolleyes:

[Kong]

I still want to know why there is little difference b/w 8 sides, given Adelaide's treatment of you in the final. Have you improved by over 12 goals over Summer?We'd like the answers to some questions of our own (posted in this thread, for reference) first.

Quite simply, put up or shut up.

[Ben the Gooner]

The Anzac Day game was a good indication, at your best (3 wins out of 5 was your seasons high) you scraped to a win.

Actually, after 3 rounds, we were 2-1. 67% > 60%.

Facts, good story, etc.

[bipolarbeaR]

Very optimistic Kelvin.

Not words I ever thought someone would say!

Kelv must have gotten laid! :eek:

[Skeeta Olly]

We'd like the answers to some questions of our own (posted in this thread, for reference) first.

Quite simply, put up or shut up.

You've scared the troll now. No chance he'll answer our questions.

[table tennis]

We did beat St.Kilda last season without Lloyd & Lucas, so those who think we are going to slide because of their departures may be horribly mislead. Sure they are shoes to fill, but Lloyd and Lucas have not been the same for some time now, and we are developing other players and game styles to suit the new Essendon forward line.

I think we will surprise many this season, It's too easy to say from the outside looking in, who have they lost? and think that a side will struggle. Llyod and Lucas are huge, but we have been in preparation for this day for 2-3 years now. we just need to stay fit as any side that will make the 8 needs too.

Hopefully the afl can approve shoulder pads before the Hawthorn game in case Campbell Brown goes on another slapping spree!

[The Donners]

good post Kelvin, I couldn't agree more.

If you read the Richmond supporters talk about the game at Morwell, they talk about how much bigger we were, how much faster and stronger we were.

We have a most un-Essendon like injury list; two of the best rucks in the game, fit; the best young KPP stocks in the league, and a potential premiership spine.

Add that to the across the board improvement, and the fact that we have a whole bunch of quality kids about to enter their most productive years, I also believe top 4 is a genuine chance this year

I love it LU but keep a lid on it... too late... I just messed myself... :o

I ****ING LOVE THIS CLUB!

[Frothies Mcveigh]

I think we can make the top 4 this year but it'll definetly be a tough task. But the future is definetly looking bright.

I ALSO ****ING LOVE THIS CLUB!

[_SYT_]

Can't remember the exact number and could only be bothered doing it from 2000, anyway.

2000 - Port 14th
2001 - Port 3rd

2001 - Collingwood 9th
2002 - Collingwood 4th (+ GF appearance)

2002 - Sydney 11th
2003 - Sydney 4th

2003 - Saints 11th, Geelong 12th
2004 - Saints 3rd, Geelong 4th

2004 - Adelaide 12th
2005 - Adelaide 1st

2005 - Fremantle 10th
2006 - Fremantle 3rd

2006 - Geelong 10th, Port Adelaide 12th, North Melbourne 14th
2007 - Geelong 1st, Port Adelaide 2nd, North Melbourne 4th

2007 - Saints 9th, Western Bulldogs 13th
2008 - Saints 4th, Western Bulldogs 3rd

Last year was the first year that a radical improvement from a team who was outside the 8 the year before didn't manage to jump into the top 4 the year after, in ages.

As it was, Collingwood finished 8th in 2008 and still managed to jump to 4th in 2009.

Considering the off-season changes and pre-season hassles a few clubs who finished around (or above) us last year have had - throw in the fact the guys we get back + natural improvement from one of the youngest teams in the comp, it's not farfetched to say we can improve into the Top 4. And it's definitely NOT unprecedented for up and coming teams to enjoy a sudden rise up the ladder.

I'm not brimming with supreme confidence of happening, but the playing list potential is there if the injury breaks actually go our way this year - as is the chance of us going backwards if things don't pan out how we want. I'd be willing to back the former though :cool:

Let's start the season off with a bang against the reigning premier and announce ourselves as genuine 2010 improvers :cool:

Gumby for PM :thumbsu:


I do like West Coast to be the bolter..

[Lance Uppercut]

Threads like this create unnecessary ammunition for opposition supporters. We'll no doubt get a reminder of comments like the ones in these threads when we lose games this year, especially in the first half of the season.

so what?! Who gives a flying **** what opposition trolls think, honestly? :rolleyes:

[Frothies Mcveigh]

The Panther dosent have a case anyway, he's full of it.

[Beerfish]

I would love to subscribe to the OP's OP..



The Adelaide final showed the difference b/w a side that had hopes for a Top 4 berth & a side who finished 8th.

The Adelaide final showed the difference between a side pushing for a GF appearance and a team decimated by injuries and suspensions full of weary young bodies that had punched above their weight most of the season.

I'll buy an Essendon membership if you finish ahead of us or even make the Final 8.

No you won't. Why do you even bother to make such stupid statements?

Who do you think you're fooling/impressing?

[The Panther]

As it was, Collingwood finished 8th in 2008 and still managed to jump to 4th in 2009.

Collingwood actually finished 6th in 08 & played Adelaide in the EF at AAMI & won by 5 goals (they were 1 win off 4th position). As opposed to Essendon, who were 5 wins behind the 4th side & in excess of 80 points of Adelaide in the respective final.

[DaSawx]

Love how people talk about our EF in Adelaide like it was our best effort, would happen every time, and we're automatically 16 goals behind the Crows.

Too many people on BF seriously need to do some growing up and look at things logically.

Almost knocked off the Crows at Etihad, led them for 3 quarters and fell just short when they couldn't fricken miss floating snaps from the boundary.

Year before, took a young, underdone side to AAMI on a Friday night and fell short by 5 points, but yeah, they're 16 goals better than us :rolleyes:

Two words for us this year, MORE CONSISTENCY please.

No more losses to Tigers or Kangeroos after good wins, nore more getting pumped interstate by average teams.

We won two in a row once last year, when we beat Carlton by 4 points.

We must dominate the shit teams, get closer to the great teams while still picking up some underdog wins here and there like we know we can.

Playing the Crows over there again this year, BRING IT ON.

[bombersno1]

Not this year, still lack 2 elite midfielders to get a top 4 berth.

[djrossie]

If we beat Port and Kangas i'll call it a success:D

[ghostdog]

hope kelvins right, signs of '93 all over again, i can live with that:thumbsu:

On last year's form I don't think our use of the footy's that good yet.
You're talking about guys like Mercuri, Long, Thompson, Misiti, Hird and O'Donnell. We still fumble too much.

[The Panther]

The Adelaide final showed the difference between a side pushing for a GF appearance

Adelaide weren't really pushing for a GF appearance. They were quite a gap below Collingwood, who were in turn a number of cogs below St. Kilda & Geelong.




full of weary young bodies

Never thought youth was an excuse.

The Essendon side, which was thrashed a week before was on average, just under 200 days younger than the Collingwood side that defeated Adelaide a week later.

Infact, the Collingwood side contained 6 players 21 or younger.
The Essendon side contained also 6 players 21 or younger.

It's quite interesting how perception isn't reality.

[Skeeta Olly]

Gees you talk a load of crap.

Even for a troll.

[Smyth94]

Midfield is still a concern. We really need McVeigh and Welsh to have massive years. Our plan A,B & C is "Let Jobe get it", that isn't going to cut it if we're giong to firmly entrench ourselves in the top 8.

[Trav0]

Midfield is still a concern. We really need McVeigh and Welsh to have massive years. Our plan A,B & C is "Let Jobe get it", that isn't going to cut it if we're giong to firmly entrench ourselves in the top 8.

i dont think mcveigh and welsh are the ones to step up...they've shown us over the years what they can do....

"top 4 within reach"
backline is a top 4 backline
midfield has the potential to step up to a top 4 midfield THIS YEAR
Rucks Paddy/Hille top 4 ruck combo in the league
Forward Line will it be Neagle/Gumby Gumby/Laycock(rucks) (this is where the top 4 within reach is at!)

[Beerfish]

Adelaide weren't really pushing for a GF appearance.

Yes they were.

Never thought youth was an excuse.

Never said it was. It's a reason when read properly. I said "weary young". You can read can't you?

The Essendon side, which was thrashed a week before was on average, just under 200 days younger than the Collingwood side that defeated Adelaide a week later.

Infact, the Collingwood side contained 6 players 21 or younger.
The Essendon side contained also 6 players 21 or younger.

Wow. That's really interesting. Now how many games experience in both sides?

It's quite interesting how my perception isn't reality.

efa.

[Knight Ryders]

Why can we?
We have good depth, right up there with the top couple of teams in the league imo.
Third year into learning a game plan. We will play to it a lot better this year, with more of a focus on tackling and turn overs.
Young, but strong backline with plenty of players that can deliver the ball and either run through or kick over the line.
Ruck combo would surely have to be one of the strongest in the league.
Western Bulldogs and Adelaide have several senior players who carry the hopes of their team. If they lose form or get injured (an injury is usually more serious when you get over 30), they could struggle.
Brisbane - I don't think they are as good as everyone has made out. They could struggle a little this year imo. I could see us, Sydney and WCE beating them.

Why can't we:
Workman like midfield atm that has it's moments but too far and inbetween at this stage. Jobe, in particular, needs help in close.
Forward line is an unknown quantity.
Gumbleton - if he had of had 3 seasons under his belt, we'd probably be a definite for finals and a chance for the final 4 as considered by the media pests. We can't expect him to be our saviour...just yet.
Experience - we still haven't shown that we can stop the 'bleeding' when other sides gain momentum. This usually comes with experience.

I think we could surprise a few sides early and are definitely a contender for finals, but keeping it up for 22 rounds is going to be our challenge. Tough and seasoned teams are usually the ones that end up in the top echeleon of the comp.

[Jono B]

Adelaide weren't really pushing for a GF appearance. They were quite a gap below Collingwood, who were in turn a number of cogs below St. Kilda & Geelong.

You win by a kick at home and that proves you were clearly better by "quite a gap".:cool:




Never thought youth was an excuse.

The Essendon side, which was thrashed a week before was on average, just under 200 days younger than the Collingwood side that defeated Adelaide a week later.

Infact, the Collingwood side contained 6 players 21 or younger.
The Essendon side contained also 6 players 21 or younger.

It's quite interesting how perception isn't reality.

The key thing was that our youth was young and TIRED. Our young players didn't have the luxury of being rested unlike Sidebottom and Beams.

[HFF_07]

Ben The Gooner's sig anyone?

2008: Avoid Bottom 8 - Check

2009: Make Finals - ??

2010: Win Final - ??

2011: Make Top 4 - ??

2012: Premiership Tilt - ??

Look alright, sounds good.

[bombre-boy]

Why can we?
We have good depth, right up there with the top couple of teams in the league imo.
Third year into learning a game plan. We will play to it a lot better this year, with more of a focus on tackling and turn overs.
Young, but strong backline with plenty of players that can deliver the ball and either run through or kick over the line.
Ruck combo would surely have to be one of the strongest in the league.
Western Bulldogs and Adelaide have several senior players who carry the hopes of their team. If they lose form or get injured (an injury is usually more serious when you get over 30), they could struggle.
Brisbane - I don't think they are as good as everyone has made out. They could struggle a little this year imo. I could see us, Sydney and WCE beating them.

Why can't we:
Workman like midfield atm that has it's moments but too far and inbetween at this stage. Jobe, in particular, needs help in close.
Forward line is an unknown quantity.
Gumbleton - if he had of had 3 seasons under his belt, we'd probably be a definite for finals and a chance for the final 4 as considered by the media pests. We can't expect him to be our saviour...just yet.
Experience - we still haven't shown that we can stop the 'bleeding' when other sides gain momentum. This usually comes with experience.




Add to this that we have a very difficult draw this year...

[BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!!]

Top 3:
Geelong, St Kilda and Bulldogs.

Bottom 3:
Melbourne, Richmond and Fremantle.

Anything can happen with the other 10 teams.

agree

[yaco55]

probably 12 months early for this thread, but we are all hoping.

A lot rests on one thing - our forwardline coming together.

It was a mess last season, and having to play Lloyd out of position, Lucas at all when clearly finished, and not having access to younger types meant it really was a problem. Take the 2nd Collingwood game, we dominated for 2 quarters of that game, yet the scoreboard looked one-sided to them. With a functioning forwardline, we could have been 4-6 goals up by quarter time alone.

We need a good Williams season, plus a break out - Gumbleton, Neagle, Laycock, the resting ruck as a freak forward, Hurley - the options are there, just need one of them to explode as a forward, and who knows what can happen...

Agree.

Another year of getting experience into the players and making sure the structures work.

[Giggidy Giggidy]

Collingwood actually finished 6th in 08 & played Adelaide in the EF at AAMI & won by 5 goals (they were 1 win off 4th position). As opposed to Essendon, who were 5 wins behind the 4th side & in excess of 80 points of Adelaide in the respective final.

Do you deliberately make stuff up to support your arguments? Did the AFL rort the finals system in an attempt to screw Collingwood over by making 6th travel interstate to take on 5th in an EF instead of hosting 7th :eek:

You finished 8th

Adelaide weren't really pushing for a GF appearance. They were quite a gap below Collingwood, who were in turn a number of cogs below St. Kilda & Geelong.

A free kick in the final minute is hardly 'quite a gap'.

Never thought youth was an excuse.

The Essendon side, which was thrashed a week before was on average, just under 200 days younger than the Collingwood side that defeated Adelaide a week later.

Infact, the Collingwood side contained 6 players 21 or younger.
The Essendon side contained also 6 players 21 or younger.

Try looking at the experience of players in the team, and the experience of the players unavailable for the match. Did you even have anyone unavailable?

[Smokin]

LMAO this 'guy' is one of the worst trolls going around.

Surely he can banned from here to save him from further embarrassment?

Just ignore him/her.

[daffo]

We will improve as a team but you haven't taken into account improvements of other sides. Ade, Bris, Port, WCE, Syd and Hawthorn should all improve from last year, as well as Bull, Saints, Geel, Coll still being ahead of us. I think 6-10 is a fair more accurate position for us this year.
Like every single team in every single year injuries will play a major part of our end of season position.
At this time of the year every team has heaps of positives.

[Daytripper]

We will improve as a team but you haven't taken into account improvements of other sides. Ade, Bris, Port, WCE, Syd and Hawthorn should all improve from last year, as well as Bull, Saints, Geel, Coll still being ahead of us. I think 6-10 is a fair more accurate position for us this year.
Like every single team in every single year injuries will play a major part of our end of season position.
At this time of the year every team has heaps of positives.

I don't get why Hawthorn will improve. They are in a worst position injury wise than they were last year, have a non existent ruck set up and probably the worst set of key defenders in the league.

I posted this in another thread but its worth noting again. One team from the top 4 the previous year has missed the 8 the next year on average every year for the past decade. Going on statistical probablity that will happen again. Carlton are also going to be worse this year.

So you have one of Geel, SK, Bulldogs or Cwood having a shocker, Carlton sliding and Hawthorn injury crippled.

There are plenty of spots above us that are open for the taking.

[dave_27]

No you won't.
Don't lie.
You're not even honest enough to come and say "sorry, I was wrong" in threads where you've made up BS statistics. Outlay some real, honest money??? Laughable.

Im still waiting for panther to follow up regarding the source of his fake MCC stats about Collingwoods supporter base and a synopsis of the so called VFL Bendigo games she has claimed to have watched the past 12 months. :o

[rhysman]

Top 3:
Geelong, St Kilda and Bulldogs.

Bottom 3:
Melbourne, Richmond and Fremantle.

Anything can happen with the other 10 teams.
Wholeheartedly agree with that. Best synopsis i've read in terms of ladder predictions. Lock that in and outside of that its a raffle depending on injuries and the draw.

[Lance Uppercut]

I don't get why Hawthorn will improve. They are in a worst position injury wise than they were last year, have a non existent ruck set up and probably the worst set of key defenders in the league.

I posted this in another thread but its worth noting again. One team from the top 4 the previous year has missed the 8 the next year on average every year for the past decade. Going on statistical probablity that will happen again. Carlton are also going to be worse this year.

So you have one of Geel, SK, Bulldogs or Cwood having a shocker, Carlton sliding and Hawthorn injury crippled.

There are plenty of spots above us that are open for the taking.

exactly right

[Ben the Gooner]

LMAO this 'guy' is one of the worst trolls going around.

Surely he can banned from here to save him from further embarrassment?

Just ignore him/her.

He's been carded and next time it's a board ban.

[EFL Boy]

Adelaide weren't really pushing for a GF appearance. They were quite a gap below Collingwood, who were in turn a number of cogs below St. Kilda & Geelong.



So let me get this right,

Adelaide beat Essendon by 16 goals, they are a 16 goal better side than Essendon.

Collingwood beat Adelaide by a goal or so, and there is quite a gap between Collingwood and Adelaide?

Turn it up.

[big_slick]

I think i precondition of attaining a top 4 position is being consistently competitive interstate, something i'm yet to see us achieve in a long time.

I know we only have 3 interstate games this year but if we can't compete in these games what hope have we got in the finals? Obviously it depends on how many interstate teams play finals but not finishing 1-2 means you'll be playing away at least once (not necessarily interstate).

Realistically we need to win 2/3 of these games.

[The Great Barry Besanko]

Very difficult draw. Not having Melb & Rich twice and playing top 4-5 twice is a bitch.

At full strength week to week we're a chance definitely of top 6.

I also think people underestimate Crows. If Walker and Tippett continue to improve they'll have close to the best spine in the League. Added improvement in players like Vince, Dangerfield, Doughty, Porplyzia, they're top 4 material....easily!

[Trav0]

Adelaide weren't really pushing for a GF appearance. They were quite a gap below Collingwood, who were in turn a number of cogs below St. Kilda & Geelong.


LOL...Adelaide were better than Collingwood, i still cant work out how the crows lost that semi, and crows will finish above collingwood this year quite comfortably

[Kong]

I also think people underestimate Crows. If Walker and Tippett continue to improve they'll have close to the best spine in the League. Added improvement in players like Vince, Dangerfield, Doughty, Porplyzia, they're top 4 material....easily!Yep.

AndLOL...Adelaide were better than Collingwood, i still cant work out how the crows lost that semi, and crows will finish above collingwood this year quite comfortablyYep.

[The House]

We will improve as a team but you haven't taken into account improvements of other sides. Ade, Bris, Port, WCE, Syd and Hawthorn should all improve from last year, as well as Bull, Saints, Geel, Coll still being ahead of us. I think 6-10 is a fair more accurate position for us this year.
Like every single team in every single year injuries will play a major part of our end of season position.
At this time of the year every team has heaps of positives.

Disagree with your analysis of a few of these teams...

Adelaide i agree will finish above us...have a few out at present and will probably start slow, but i actually think they're a very good side when all are available, and although it's almost impossible to know, if i was tipping a gf 6 months out i'd say it'll be saints v crows.

Brisbane i don't see improving...Fev will take time to work into this forward line, but they did lose Bradshaw and quite a few of the other bunch of recruits they've pulled were fringe players already...this side has so many changes they will be inconsistant until they get back into a grove.

I can't see how Sydney will improve after losing another half dozen premiership players from last year, at all.

Hawks have a genuine lack of depth and it's being exposed...they've lost 6 retired key players from the '08 flag already and a busted burgoyne isn't the answer when they should have got Jolly.

Port and WC should improve but i don't think enough to pass an improved Essendon in one season.

Carlton will slide for obvious reasons.

For me i think last years's top 5 will stay ahead of us this year and 6th is par score for our current list. 13 or 14 wins required so as has been said before, we will need to win more consistantly against the lower sides.

Our draw is percieved as hard, but tbh i'm more than comfortable with playing Carlton and Hawthorn twice. Playing somewhere near our best on the day and we should expect 4 wins out of that.

Therefore, i guess with a bit of luck to us, or bad luck to a couple above us, it certainly isn't out of the realms of possibility that Essendon could finish 4th, but all things being equal, i think we are currently the 6th best side in the afl and improving...:)

[Deeksy]

I think i precondition of attaining a top 4 position is being consistently competitive interstate, something i'm yet to see us achieve in a long time.

I know we only have 3 interstate games this year but if we can't compete in these games what hope have we got in the finals? Obviously it depends on how many interstate teams play finals but not finishing 1-2 means you'll be playing away at least once (not necessarily interstate).

Realistically we need to win 2/3 of these games.

Amen to that. There's been nothing more frustrating than watching Essendon interstate since 2002. Very ordinary.

[BrunoV]

Guys, this whole carding people from opposition clubs is pathetic.

There should only be two responses:

1. prove the guy wrong; and then
2. ignore him

Seriously, let him have his opinion, if it is as shit as everyone says it is than just let him look the fool.

[Ben the Gooner]

Guys, this whole carding people from opposition clubs is pathetic.

There should only be two responses:

1. prove the guy wrong; and then
2. ignore him

Seriously, let him have his opinion, if it is as shit as everyone says it is than just let him look the fool.

The red was for two yellows for two different things.

[yodellinhank]

I've developed a bit of a conspiracy theory, that many people might say is crazy.

Basically, I've got a feeling we are going to have a lot more "luck";) than other years in things like decisions handed down by the tribunal, special instructions for umpires and decisions by the league in general.

We play (at least) 7 Friday night footballs. We play 7 Saturday night footballs. Given that these two time slots are the highest rating for "neutral" supporters, I just don't think the AFL can afford us to have an uncompetitive season...

[smiddaz123]

LOL...Adelaide were better than Collingwood, i still cant work out how the crows lost that semi, and crows will finish above collingwood this year quite comfortably
Maybe it was the same way they managed to lose to use only a few weeks before in the Home and Away season? Adelaide were more dominant in the middle of the ground, but Collingwood's defence was clearly the stand out of the defenses, and it's why we won.

Also I'm willing to lay 200-1 that Essendon don't finish top 4. It's like a few of you haven't seen your draw.

Any takers?

[Ben the Gooner]

Maybe it was the same way they managed to lose to use only a few weeks before in the Home and Away season? Adelaide were more dominant in the middle of the ground, but Collingwood's defence was clearly the stand out of the defenses, and it's why we won.

Also I'm willing to lay 200-1 that Essendon don't finish top 4. It's like a few of you haven't seen your draw.

Any takers?

Seriously?

I'll put $5 on.

[smiddaz123]

Seriously?

I'll put $5 on.
Done.

[yodellinhank]

Pretty good odds you got there BTG. Beats the 17-1 on offer on the markets by some margin.

[Mecha]

Also I'm willing to lay 200-1 that Essendon don't finish top 4. It's like a few of you haven't seen your draw.


Put me down for $10.

[DaSawx]

These are the differences in our draw this year.....

IN:
Adelaide away
Geelong 2nd
Port home
WCE home
Bulldogs 2nd

OUT:
Adelaide home
Brisbane away
Fremantle away
Port away
Richmond 2nd

Don't see how it is harder really, of all the games we don't have back we didn't win a single one of them, yet I'd back us to beat WCE and Port at home this year, and hopefully North as well.

[Frothies Mcveigh]

Spot on there DaSawx. If anything our fixture is probably better than last year.

[bipolarbeaR]

Man we play badly in Adelaide though lol!

[Trav0]

hopefully we can snag 1 against the dogs, they are one of those teams over recent years who ive felt only beat us because they were bigger and stronger, bit like the saints, with our size increasing one of those games is a chance!!

[The House]

Maybe it was the same way they managed to lose to use only a few weeks before in the Home and Away season? Adelaide were more dominant in the middle of the ground, but Collingwood's defence was clearly the stand out of the defenses, and it's why we won.

Also I'm willing to lay 200-1 that Essendon don't finish top 4. It's like a few of you haven't seen your draw.

Any takers?

Something tells me you won't pay up, but i'll more than happily take $10!

[Kong]

hopefully we can snag 1 against the dogs, they are one of those teams over recent years who ive felt only beat us because they were bigger and stronger, bit like the saints, with our size increasing one of those games is a chance!!We would've beat them in 2008 had it not been for copping 3 injuries in the space of 5 minutes during the last quarter. We were actually winning until that point, after which they over ran us.

In 2009 we started fast and were up by a few goals. A few appalling umpiring decisions resulted in direct goals to them, and they were in front. That one's less clear-cut, as we still should've came back if we were good enough.

2010 will be the year.

[BrunoV]

The red was for two yellows for two different things.

Fair enough. The posts in this thread made it look like he was being carded for putting forward his views which while inaccurate are not the worst I have seen and wouldn't warrant carding.

[lemon chicken]

Out of reach. Injuries will decide for most but IMO Cats may slide but not by heaps, Saints looks as good as last year, Bulldogs are better, Collingwood better, Adelaide few inuries hard to say, Brisbane better, Carlton worse, Hawks should be better, Kangaroos will be better, Us Port and WCE young and anything could happen. I think the gap between top and bottom has widened this year. Top 8 spot more realistic.

[Beerfish]

Out of reach. Injuries will decide for most but IMO Cats may slide but not by heaps, Saints looks as good as last year, Bulldogs are better, Collingwood better, Adelaide few inuries hard to say, Brisbane better, Carlton worse, Hawks should be better, Kangaroos will be better, Us Port and WCE young and anything could happen. I think the gap between top and bottom has widened this year. Top 8 spot more realistic.

Well of course top 8 is more realistic but top 4 isn't out of the question is it? I'm not really interested in talking it up too much as you're just tempting the football gods to smite you but I think it's possible.

[Jack4814]

These are the differences in our draw this year.....

IN:
Adelaide away
Geelong 2nd
Port home
WCE home
Bulldogs 2nd

OUT:
Adelaide home
Brisbane away
Fremantle away
Port away
Richmond 2nd

Don't see how it is harder really, of all the games we don't have back we didn't win a single one of them, yet I'd back us to beat WCE and Port at home this year, and hopefully North as well.

This is pretty amazing when you put it like this. When I first saw our draw I cried myself to sleep. However having lost every game thats been taken out im feeling a whole lot better :thumbsu: