View Full Version : Lies, Damned Lies and... Prismall and Howlett?
Played 12 and 11 games respectively, and won 6 and 5.
NLM has played 12 and won 3.
Welsh has played 11 and won 2.
Melksham has played 11 and won 3.
Slattery 10 for 2.
Melksham is still young and unfit and learning, but...
(Incidentally, We haven't won a game without Fletcher, Stanton or Dempsey in the side. When any of them have missed - and they've all missed at least a couple, we've never won.)
What's the point of this? That if Howlett or Prismall get dropped for NLM or Welsh in the new couple of weeks we can only assume that Knights and the selection committee have no idea how the team is structured when it plays well and isn't recognising the efforts of these players.
Considering that NLM and Welsh get extended runs in the team and Prismall and Howlett are chopping and changing every couple of weeks...
Slattery_20
3 Aug 2010, 14:56
Long bow to draw, that one small or another can make that sort of difference.
Hille & Watson are our most important. You can see it.
bombermick
3 Aug 2010, 14:59
Only want Welsh in this week to tag Judd. He's too dangerous otherwise. Prismall is an easy scapegoat amongst us bomber faithful. His disposal is not always great, but he always gets lots of the ball and creates run. Howlett is a good clearance player and should stay in the side.
NLM had some good games earlier in the season but dropped off, while Melksham is still developing.
Long bow to draw, that one small or another can make that sort of difference.
Hille & Watson are our most important. You can see it.
Hille, Watson and Fletcher I would say.
But in terms of midfield balance, Howlett and Prismall give us more than NLM and Welsh. And it is a team game where team balance makes a big difference.
You cant make this argument for anyone else in the side unless you pick players, like Hille, Monfries, Ryder, Stanton, Fletcher, Watson... all players who are clearly recognised as best 22 players.
howlett is a more effective tagging option than welsh these days.
On this point.
Of the players who have played 10 or more games this year:
Fletcher - 7 from 15
Dempsey, Stanton - 7 from 16
Gumby - 7 from 17
Zaka, Ryder, Watson, Hocking - 7 from 18
Hille, Prismall - 6 from 12
Monfries - 6 from 13
McVeigh, Hurley, Davey - 6 from 15
Winders - 6 from 17
Howlett - 5 from 11
Lonergan - 5 from 13
Hooker - 5 from 14
Pears - 3 from 10
Melksham - 3 from 11
NLM - 3 from 12
Welsh - 2 from 11
Slattery - 2 from 10
Sorted by wins and win ratio it paints a different picture of the importance of Welsh and Slattery than the one the selection comittee gives. McVeigh, Fletcher and Hille are a different story.
Pears and Melksham are young players with fitness or injury concerns, but even they are higher up. Hell, even my favourite whipping boy, played-out-of-position-Lonergan looks more important.
Ben the Gooner
3 Aug 2010, 15:24
Delist Pears.
Delist Pears.
Is this what passes for wit these days?
Pears got a fair bit of scrutiny here I believe for his poor form, and managed to break his hand as well, but still has a better record this year than others. Not to mention he is a young player who we can expect to see some improvement from.
I don't think you can make many arguments unless you point to Pears, Melksham, or Hooker. And they are on the young and developing side of NLM, Welsh and (to a lesser extent) Slattery.
Delist Pears.
It would not be unreasonable to suggest the whole complexion of those tedious stats would be different had Pears played. A few more entries in the wins column I would suggest.
Ben the Gooner
3 Aug 2010, 15:52
Is this what passes for wit these days?
Pears got a fair bit of scrutiny here I believe for his poor form, and managed to break his hand as well, but still has a better record this year than others. Not to mention he is a young player who we can expect to see some improvement from.
I don't think you can make many arguments unless you point to Pears, Melksham, or Hooker. And they are on the young and developing side of NLM, Welsh and (to a lesser extent) Slattery.
Not an attempt at wit. I think that this sort of statistical analysis is vastly flawed.
If Slattery had played v Richmond instead of Atkinson, would the result have been different? Unlikely.
Correlation does not equal causation.
Donakebab
3 Aug 2010, 15:55
Can shit threads like this be banned please?
They don't take into account the other 21 players in the team, the condition those 21 are in, the form the entire team is in, the opposition, the venue, the umpires... **** they don't take anything into account. They are just plain shit.
bombermick
3 Aug 2010, 16:09
On this point.
Of the players who have played 10 or more games this year:
Fletcher - 7 from 15
Dempsey, Stanton - 7 from 16
Gumby - 7 from 17
Zaka, Ryder, Watson, Hocking - 7 from 18
Hille, Prismall - 6 from 12
Monfries - 6 from 13
McVeigh, Hurley, Davey - 6 from 15
Winders - 6 from 17
Howlett - 5 from 11
Lonergan - 5 from 13
Hooker - 5 from 14
Pears - 3 from 10
Melksham - 3 from 11
NLM - 3 from 12
Welsh - 2 from 11
Slattery - 2 from 10
Sorted by wins and win ratio it paints a different picture of the importance of Welsh and Slattery than the one the selection comittee gives. McVeigh, Fletcher and Hille are a different story.
Pears and Melksham are young players with fitness or injury concerns, but even they are higher up. Hell, even my favourite whipping boy, played-out-of-position-Lonergan looks more important.
Lonergan is chronically underated. He's not a forward, but he is very good in the clearances. Hopefully Knighta never tries to make him a forward again.
Not an attempt at wit. I think that this sort of statistical analysis is vastly flawed.
If Slattery had played v Richmond instead of Atkinson, would the result have been different? Unlikely.
Correlation does not equal causation.
I'm not saying it is not flawed, and it's certainly no excuse for not engaging in the issue in a number of other ways, but I do think it reflects something and is not entirely useless.
In this sense I find it interesting that the statistically worst performed of all our players who have played 10 or more games this year, in regard to their win-loss ratio, are three who seem to be afforded 'best 22' positions ahead of a number of others.
I thought that Howlett has been unlucky to be dropped given his performances this year and that Welsh and NLM have come back in too easily, and I think that these figures go some way to reflecting that.
Your comment about Slattery and Atkinson is somewhat beside the point. I'm not including players who haven't played 10 or more games for a reason (Colyer 4 from 8, Myers 3 from 5 - the last two where he was played in defence, for example), because this kind of measurement isn't really relevant in any way in too much isolation.
Given the 16-18 players who get picked every week when fit I find it worth discussion that two (three) of them - Welsh and Slattery (NLM), are much more poorly represented than every other 'best 22' player, and somewhat worse than those players (Prismall, Howlett, Lonergan) that they seem to push out when they are selected.
You might disagree, but I hardly think I'm throwing up empty air here.
TeamHurley
3 Aug 2010, 17:20
In other news it looks like pirates are responsible for global warming.
http://generallordisimo.files.wordpress.com/2007/11/global-warming.jpg
Mumbo Jumbo
3 Aug 2010, 18:21
Or that the cause of global warming (industrialisation) has led to more pirates?
George Washington
3 Aug 2010, 18:58
Or that the cause of global warming (industrialisation) has led to more pirates?
Less pirates.
Donakebab
3 Aug 2010, 19:14
Or that the cause of global warming (industrialisation) has led to more pirates?
Ass pirates?
Mumbo Jumbo
3 Aug 2010, 21:05
Less pirates.
Yeah less :o
EVERLAST
3 Aug 2010, 22:23
In other news it looks like pirates are responsible for global warming.
http://generallordisimo.files.wordpress.com/2007/11/global-warming.jpg
Nearly lost a mouthful of almonds pissing myself laughing. Gold!
Pevers-Legend
3 Aug 2010, 22:46
The OP has a point though.
When we don't play slow plodders - we win more.
Coincidence - I think not.
HighettBomber
3 Aug 2010, 23:10
The OP has a point though.
When we don't play slow plodders - we win more.
Coincidence - I think not.
I think this is more to the point, rathewr than picking on particular players. All of the players mentioned bring something to the table, but if we play too many plodders it stuffs our game plan
Jonesy1987
4 Aug 2010, 04:41
In other news it looks like pirates are responsible for global warming.
http://generallordisimo.files.wordpress.com/2007/11/global-warming.jpg
The more the merrier...
http://www.inewscatcher.com/timages/e04dba10150ed72d06ee88af027f03fa.jpg
Longy413
4 Aug 2010, 08:14
howlett is a more effective tagging option than welsh these days.
Who has he tagged?
Slattery_20
4 Aug 2010, 08:18
He's a more rounded player, he doesn't completely blanket guys tho. Question is: is Howlett's extra run, extra speed, extra everything else worth more than Welsh's opponent getting less of it.
Jonesy1987
4 Aug 2010, 08:21
Who has he tagged?
Only Dal Santo IIRC and he did that poorly in the first game. A better run with player than a tagger IMO.
Longy413
4 Aug 2010, 20:51
He's a more rounded player, he doesn't completely blanket guys tho. Question is: is Howlett's extra run, extra speed, extra everything else worth more than Welsh's opponent getting less of it.
Depends what the gap is in Howlett's extra run, speed and everything else and the extra run, disposals, damage that the oppositions best player does.
No doubt Howlett is quicker and uses the ball better, but until Friday night he wasn't finding more of it than Welsh and Welsh does a damn good tagging job.
I'd probably play Welsh instead of Lonergan rather than Howlett at the moment.
I've got no doubt that next season Howlett will have the fitness levels to be a good midfielder in our best side.
I also think there is a spot for Welsh.
Son of Whispy
4 Aug 2010, 21:03
The problem this year is that we have dropped blokes who have warranted to be selected in place of players that have been out of form or simply not good enough. It's pretty clear and simple, stable teams at the selection table win games of footy, not teams who make wholesale changes each week. Pick players who are in form and leave out the players who aren't.
I've got no doubt that next season Howlett will have the fitness levels to be a good midfielder in our best side.This excites me.
He's proven to be a bloody good pick-up, Howlett.
Next year we should (best case scenario) have Watson, Stanton, Howlett and Winderlich as soldified midfield leaders, with the likes of Zaharakis, Melksham, Colyer, Prismall, Myers, Lonergan and even Welsh for support.
What has for so long been considered our weakness could really turn this side into a very good one before we know it.
Longy413
4 Aug 2010, 21:10
I don't think Zaka will be a support midfielder next season.
I reckon he's 30 games away from being our best midfielder. Including Watson.
We still need to recruit heavily towards our midfield and Houli could be another option, but I think we are at least starting to get some numbers together that can hold their own.
I don't think Zaka will be a support midfielder next season.
I reckon he's 30 games away from being our best midfielder. Including Watson.
We still need to recruit heavily towards our midfield and Houli could be another option, but I think we are at least starting to get some numbers together that can hold their own.
Longy
Big statement
I am in the camp that believes Zaharakis will end up being a best midfielder, but it could be another 60 to 70 games.
Zaharakis tends to be under-rated by opposition supporters.
Duckworth
4 Aug 2010, 23:14
Longy
Big statement
I am in the camp that believes Zaharakis will end up being a best midfielder, but it could be another 60 to 70 games.
Zaharakis tends to be under-rated by opposition supporters.
He still gets himself in some awkward positions to kick, has kicked it into the man on the mark a couple of times in recent games IIRC.
Pevers-Legend
5 Aug 2010, 11:28
Depends what the gap is in Howlett's extra run, speed and everything else and the extra run, disposals, damage that the oppositions best player does.
No doubt Howlett is quicker and uses the ball better, but until Friday night he wasn't finding more of it than Welsh and Welsh does a damn good tagging job.
Welsh does do a great job tagging - however he is a complete and utter liability with the ball and generates absolutely no run.
I would much prefer a younger guy who may not blanket, but will slighlty curtail while getting the ball.
Fact - guys like welsh will not be there when we make our next tilt and he only brings one thing to the table at present - tagging.
A guy like Fletch is completely different -he holds his own, contributes to the team and is a great influence on the back half.
Welsh is a pseudo midifelder come tagging fwd come half back flanker. His skills and decision making are crap. Unfortunately for him, his devleopment was ruined by Sheedy's sideways movement gameplan in the backhalf.
Longy
Big statement
I am in the camp that believes Zaharakis will end up being a best midfielder, but it could be another 60 to 70 games.
Zaharakis tends to be under-rated by opposition supporters.
Not just opposition supporters - someone suggested that Zaka could be on the chopping block this week!! IMO he is underrated even by our own supporters.
He still gets himself in some awkward positions to kick, has kicked it into the man on the mark a couple of times in recent games IIRC.
Nit picking much?
Longy413
5 Aug 2010, 13:56
Welsh does do a great job tagging - however he is a complete and utter liability with the ball and generates absolutely no run.
I would much prefer a younger guy who may not blanket, but will slighlty curtail while getting the ball.
Fact - guys like welsh will not be there when we make our next tilt and he only brings one thing to the table at present - tagging.
A guy like Fletch is completely different -he holds his own, contributes to the team and is a great influence on the back half.
Welsh is a pseudo midifelder come tagging fwd come half back flanker. His skills and decision making are crap. Unfortunately for him, his devleopment was ruined by Sheedy's sideways movement gameplan in the backhalf.
Absolutely disagree with everything you say, but see no reason debating it.
The Donners
5 Aug 2010, 14:01
Welsh does do a great job tagging - however he is a complete and utter liability with the ball and generates absolutely no run.
I would much prefer a younger guy who may not blanket, but will slighlty curtail while getting the ball.
Fact - guys like welsh will not be there when we make our next tilt and he only brings one thing to the table at present - tagging.
A guy like Fletch is completely different -he holds his own, contributes to the team and is a great influence on the back half.
Welsh is a pseudo midifelder come tagging fwd come half back flanker. His skills and decision making are crap. Unfortunately for him, his devleopment was ruined by Sheedy's sideways movement gameplan in the backhalf.
I agree with the most part of this.
He still gets himself in some awkward positions to kick, has kicked it into the man on the mark a couple of times in recent games IIRC.
His best games are behind him, showing a few signs of wear and tear, not a good enough player to warrant carrying in this team. Always liked his approach to the ball and opponent though.
kelvin_sheedy
5 Aug 2010, 21:16
Welsh does do a great job tagging - however he is a complete and utter liability with the ball and generates absolutely no run.
I would much prefer a younger guy who may not blanket, but will slighlty curtail while getting the ball.
Fact - guys like welsh will not be there when we make our next tilt and he only brings one thing to the table at present - tagging.
A guy like Fletch is completely different -he holds his own, contributes to the team and is a great influence on the back half.
Welsh is a pseudo midifelder come tagging fwd come half back flanker. His skills and decision making are crap. Unfortunately for him, his devleopment was ruined by Sheedy's sideways movement gameplan in the backhalf.
Spot on Pevers... apart for the Sheeds dig though.
I have lost count the number of times Welsh has fluffed simple handballs or failed to create an option for someone.
He is playing selfish football these days and is only concerned about his man as his lack of run is shot. 2 years ago he had a role. Broken leg has sucked that little bit out and he doesn't have the skill to compensate.