If we're gonna lose...

[DaveW]

First of all, this thread's devoted to ant. His pessimism - believing we can still slip to 7th - has forced me to get the spreadsheet out and see what it takes to stay in 6th.

So the following is what we need to score (the absolute MINIMUM) to stay in 6th.

e.g. Going by the first line: if Port win 75-1, we stay 6th; if Port win 75-0, we drop to 7th.


Port Adel margin
75 1 74
76 2 74
77 3 74
78 4 74
79 5 74
80 6 74
81 8 73
82 9 73
83 10 73
84 11 73
85 12 73
86 14 72
87 15 72
88 16 72
89 17 72
90 18 72
91 19 72
92 21 71
93 22 71
94 23 71
95 24 71
96 25 71
97 26 71
98 28 70
99 29 70
100 30 70
101 31 70
102 32 70
103 33 70
104 35 69
105 36 69
106 37 69
107 38 69
108 39 69
109 41 68
110 42 68
111 43 68
112 44 68
113 45 68
114 46 68
115 48 67
116 49 67
117 50 67
118 51 67
119 52 67
120 53 67
121 55 66
122 56 66
123 57 66
124 58 66
125 59 66
126 60 66
127 62 65
128 63 65
129 64 65
130 65 65
131 66 65
132 68 64
133 69 64
134 70 64
135 71 64
136 72 64
137 73 64
138 75 63
139 76 63
140 77 63
141 78 63
142 79 63
143 80 63
144 82 62
145 83 62
146 84 62
147 85 62
148 86 62
149 87 62
150 89 61
151 90 61
152 91 61
153 92 61
154 93 61
155 95 60
156 96 60
157 97 60
158 98 60
159 99 60
160 100 60
161 102 59
162 103 59
163 104 59
164 105 59
165 106 59
166 107 59
167 109 58
168 110 58
169 111 58
170 112 58
171 113 58
172 114 58
173 116 57
174 117 57
175 118 57
176 119 57
177 120 57
178 122 56
179 123 56
180 124 56
181 125 56
182 126 56
183 127 56
184 129 55
185 130 55
186 131 55
187 132 55
188 133 55
189 134 55
190 136 54
191 137 54
192 138 54
193 139 54
194 140 54
195 141 54
196 143 53
197 144 53
198 145 53
199 146 53
200 147 53


So Port would need to win by some 10 goals or so to see us on a road trip next week.

[SAbella]

Win or lose, looks like (luckily) we'll be playing at AAMI next weekend-phew!

Still hoping for fourth though...

[macca23]

Thanks Dave. That's very comprehensive and you'd think we could keep their score below 126 points and the margin below 11 goals.

Now I know that you're the master of this, and I can never remember it.

Let's say we finish 6th and we defeat West Coast, then who do we play the loser of - Port v Sydney or Pies v Lions??

And if we win that one which group do we swing into for the prelim??

[DaveW]

Originally posted by macca23
Let's say we finish 6th and we defeat West Coast, then who do we play the loser of - Port v Sydney or Pies v Lions??
The winner of 6 v 7 plays the loser of 2 v 3.

So it would be a trip to the MCG or the Gabba.

[MarksGirl-kbcrowgirl]

somebody quoted shakira the other day - whenever, wherever - I don't really mind just as long as we win!

k
xx

[dyertribe]

http://perso.wanadoo.fr/christian.bruel/images/homermmm.gif

mmmmm shakira...

[macca23]

Originally posted by DaveW
The winner of 6 v 7 plays the loser of 2 v 3.

So it would be a trip to the MCG or the Gabba.

Okay, so we would want Brizzy to win, as our better chance would be Collingwood at the G.

Then if we were to win that, then we would play Port or Sydney in the prelim. Port most probably.


If we win against Port this week, then we must play the winner of Sydney and Essendon at home if we lose for the right to play the winner of the Pies and Brisbane. Right?

And if we win against Port both times where would our prelim be played?

[DaveW]

Originally posted by macca23
Okay, so we would want Brizzy to win, as our better chance would be Collingwood at the G.

Then if we were to win that, then we would play Port or Sydney in the prelim. Port most probably.


If we win against Port this week, then we must play the winner of Sydney and Essendon at home if we lose for the right to play the winner of the Pies and Brisbane. Right? All correct.

And if we win against Port both times where would our prelim be played? OK, there has to be one preliminary at the MCG.

If Collingwood win their qualifying final, then they'll host a preliminary final at the MCG.

If Port lose their qualifying final and Brisbane win theirs, then the Lions will host a preliminary final at the Gabba. With the other one at the MCG.

[kirky]

There are no ifs and buts because we HAVE to win tommorow to ensure that we don't have to go to the Brisbane (should they lose to the Wobblers) in the second week. Yes, playing the Coasters in week 1 is ok but not preferred for obvious reasons.

[kirky]

Originally posted by macca23
And if we win against Port both times where would our prelim be played?

Providing the Woods won in week one and everything went according to seedings (except us winning week one) then we would play the Lions at AAMI. Teams crossover therefore allowing for the teams playing in week 1 to possibly play off in the GF.

[macca23]

Originally posted by DaveW
All correct.

OK, there has to be one preliminary at the MCG.

If Collingwood win their qualifying final, then they'll host a preliminary final at the MCG.

If Port lose their qualifying final and Brisbane win theirs, then the Lions will host a preliminary final at the Gabba. With the other one at the MCG.

Geez, what a mix-up. :confused:

Depending whether we're 4th or 6th and if 4th whether we win or lose our first final, determines whether we want Brisbane or the Pies to win.

Ah well. We'll either know or partly know tomorrow.

[Stiffy_18]

Originally posted by dyertribe
http://perso.wanadoo.fr/christian.bruel/images/homermmm.gif

mmmmm shakira... :D

[DaveW]

Port Adel margin
94 23 71

Phew, at least we got those 23+ points. :)

[ant]

Awww, a thread devoted to me, shucks.

To be honest, I was stunned we kept the margin to under 8 goals today.

[DaveW]

Originally posted by ant
Awww, a thread devoted to me, shucks.

To be honest, I was stunned we kept the margin to under 8 goals today. Ah that famous ant pessimism again.

[ant]

Originally posted by DaveW
Ah that famous ant pessimism again.

Thankfully they did miss a few.

PS I prefer to be known as a realist.