View Full Version : New Cold War?!?!
With all the events happening regarding the US spyplane over China and the Chinese reaction, do you think a new Cold War may begin between the USA and China? George Bush has demonstrated so far in some of his actions that this very well may be the case. :eek:
What does everyone else think. Personally I worry about modern day conflict between two superpowers due to what might happen if they decide to use mass retaliation against each other. Under George Bush I think Australia should try and distance itself a bit from the USA as some of his foreign policies are slightly worrying :(
Vis
Same Old's
6 Apr 2001, 15:57
I don't think this current situation between China and the US will turn into a "Cold War". There was more chance of a Cold War between these two countries when the US bombed the Chinese embassy in Yugoslavia.
sabre_ac
6 Apr 2001, 17:17
During the cold war the Russians and the Americans were sum what evenly matched and both knew this and hence the reason why the cold war didnt turn into a actual war.
The chinese are so far behind the Americans its not funny, hence why this spy plane is such a god sent for them.They have allot of catching up to do, and simply dont have the funds or industry to ever rival the US.
Though that said they are still a nuclear power, enough to scare the shit outta me.Both countries will probally let this slide.
Stealth bomber
6 Apr 2001, 22:04
Don't blame me, I voted for Gore :)
The consensus at home seems to be that the Chinese don't think very highly of Dumbya's brain power (can't say I really blame them) so they're testing him. This is his first real crisis as president.
Like most other Republicans, Bush is a trigger-happy blow-em-up war freak, so I am not going to be surprised if the use of force gets involved. Generally I am not a fan of his foreign policy issues.
I do think China has a LOT of nerve asking us to apologize, when they are absolutely 100% at fault in this situation. The longer that they hold on to the crew, the worse they will look in the eyes of the world, IMO.
It's like having your car get rear-ended, stolen, stripped bare, then you get taken hostage and the whole time you are blamed for it.
Originally posted by Visro:
What does everyone else think. Personally I worry about modern day conflict between two superpowers due to what might happen if they decide to use mass retaliation against each other. Under George Bush I think Australia should try and distance itself a bit from the USA as some of his foreign policies are slightly worrying :(
Vis
Vis mate if I were you I'd try to distance myself from China (physically) cos when the Yanks start letting off the fireworks the fallout is gonna be huge.
Also if I were you i would be a lot more worried about the prospect of facing me in this weekends BFCC than a potential nuclear war as being hit by one of my bouncers will feel like a nuclear explosion.
[This message has been edited by DIPPER (edited 06 April 2001).]
collingwood_joffa
6 Apr 2001, 23:30
Serves the stupid thucken yanks right they deserve everything they get,since the end of world war 2 they have been lecturing to the rest of the world on what is right and what is wrong,They cant even feed there poor or look after there homeless,hospital care is for the rich,shit the silly bastards still believe it's there god given right to own firearms whilst kids are slaughtering other kids in there school playgrounds,yeah god bless america god would not even piss on there pathetic country.
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good ole collingwood for ever,we know how to play the game,side by side we stick together to uphold the REAL magpies name,see the barrackers are shouting,as all barrackers should,YES the premiership's a cakewalk for the good ole collingwood.
'YOU'LL NEVER WALK ALONE'http://www.mp3.com/joffa
Sabre - China has the biggest Air Force in the world and there Army is also very big because of the amount of ppl in the country. Never underestimate China! They are a world power and they are also one of the few communist countries left in the world today. I really wish Clinton was still in office, he may have been a little sex starved but at least he could lead a country and to some extent the world. Bush is bad news.
Whoah did I miss something....the USA plane was a friggin spy plane, if you were a chinese commy would you like to be spyed on? I think they have every right to nudge it or whatever really did happen. USA had no right to spy on China. Can you imagine the outroar 10 years ago if a Soviet plane flew over the US with the intent of spying?
Vis
TigerTank
7 Apr 2001, 06:58
Originally posted by collingwood_joffa:
Serves the stupid thucken yanks right they deserve everything they get,since the end of world war 2 ... pathetic country.
Sleepless in Seattle
Clueless in Collingwood
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TT - Obligatory bad-tempered Richmond supporter
Originally posted by Stealth bomber:
Don't blame me, I voted for Gore :)
Are you sure Stealth :D
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Before you criticize someone, you should walk a mile in their shoes. That way, when you criticize them, you're a mile away and you have their shoes.
from what I understand- China has an army of about 150 million soldiers, which would be more than enough to do whatever the hell they wanted to do. As far as America being far out in front in military terms, I dont really think that is as true as most would beleive- so realistically, America should do its best to not piss China off.
I can just imagine the middle situaution escalating and the US running in to the aid of Israel, and China running in to help Palestine- all the countries take sides and shit hits the fan.
But I should stop reading Nostradamus books so much I guess.
sabre_ac
7 Apr 2001, 10:44
Originally posted by TigerTank:
Sleepless in Seattle
Clueless in Collingwood
LOL
*clap* *clap*
One of the best calls I have seen on this board.
collingwood_joffa
7 Apr 2001, 11:26
Sabre just wait till we piss on your piss weak football club on saturday night!!!!
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good ole collingwood for ever,we know how to play the game,side by side we stick together to uphold the REAL magpies name,see the barrackers are shouting,as all barrackers should,YES the premiership's a cakewalk for the good ole collingwood.
'YOU'LL NEVER WALK ALONE'http://www.mp3.com/joffa
that car rear-ended analogy is a bit piss weak tho...
imagine if it were a chinese SPY plane, spying off the coast of usa... that clipped a US jet and killed an american pilot... imagine the uproar there...
likewise, that embassy bombing incident in yugoslavia was a shocker...
i wanna play too
7 Apr 2001, 13:03
There is a real possibility of a war happening. A military analyst said a few years ago "China has enough military power to fight a world war alone and would still likely come out on top".
Also, Nostradamus and the Bible both predict a massive war will occur between the yrs 2000 and 2012 that will wipe out two thirds of the planets population in the first few weeks(both also say it is avoidable, it is all up to us). They say the war will be so horrific that those of us that do survive will wish we did not.
Though a union of european countries is meant to start this war, so this might not be it.
But it is all coming together. the EU want to acquire military power for "safety" purposes. Thats could be the start of the end.
Call me paranoid if you want, but even if you do not believe these predictions they are scary to think about and a possibility.
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I never let my schooling interfere with my education.
It is certainly plausible to consider a cold war errupting between China and the US - that is if it doesn't go so far as nuclear warfare.
It's more than just a bit of a worry...personally, i think it is only a matter of time, but if the bible and Nostradamus are anything to go by it'll be sooner rather than later.
It wouldn't be able to be called the Cold War though as the whole reason the Russian Vs USA saga was called the cold war because there was never actually any fighting involved. What could it be..."The YankyCommy War"?
Vis
Shinboners
7 Apr 2001, 16:09
Politically, the Chinese are trying to put Dumbya under the thumb...that's why they're being so adamant on demanding an apology from the US President. I would like to point out that the Americans were going to anounce a trade agreement where the US military buy their berets from, you guessed it, China. But they've delayed the announcement because it wouldn't go down too well in the US right now.
The key to the resolution will be the return of the US personnel. They'll probably get the plane back as well, but not before the Chinese have gone over it with a fine tooth comb (wonder if the US ever returned that MiG23 to the Russians...you know, the one flown to Japan by a defector).
In the long term though, I don't think there will be a cold war between the two nations. Both need each other...China needs the US for captial, the US sees China as a place to sell their goods and services. Since politicians in the US knowtow to business interests, it won't be too long before the large corporations have a little chat to their lobbyists who will have a little chat to their congressmen ("you know that donation we're going to make for your next campaign? well, the cheque will be in the mail, but first of all, let's chat about your China policy).
No-one knows who would win a China-U.S. war. While the US has a distinct technological advantage, to win a war, you still need to put men on the ground and that would mean an invasion. Considering that the US got spanked the last time they entered a land war (Vietnam), in their recent operations (Iraq, Serbia), they've been very reluctant to put men on the ground lest their TVs start showing US servicemen returning home in body bags....notice how quickly the Americans withdrew troops once things got a little bit tricky in Somalia. By the way, Grenada doesn't count....a bunch of spotty faced high school cadets could've taken over that place.
Shinboners
7 Apr 2001, 16:12
Originally posted by i wanna play too:
Also, Nostradamus and the Bible both predict a massive war will occur between the yrs 2000 and 2012 that will wipe out two thirds of the planets population in the first few weeks(both also say it is avoidable, it is all up to us).
Geeze...hope Denis Pagan can get the kids development accelerating a little bit....I'd like to see at least another one or two Roo premierships before it's all over.
Same Old's
7 Apr 2001, 22:07
Originally posted by Arch:
from what I understand- China has an army of about 150 million soldiers, which would be more than enough to do whatever the hell they wanted to do.
I think you "a bit" off there, Arch. China has an army of around 5 million soldiers.
Cold War or a real war with arms it wont really matter. We always have the advantage. If it got serious then the Uk and us aussies would step in a help out. Then there is Canada France and so on and so on with all the Commonwealth countries helping out. Unless China finds help in Iraq or so forth then i see no result but a crushing victory for the good guys.
But that is of course if anything happens and then, which is doubtful escalates into a world war of sorts. (Very remote)
In the above post jod23 are you implying that France is a country of the British Commonwealth? :D Just wait till my mum hears that...better move over to the eastern states if I were you ;)
Vis
[This message has been edited by Visro (edited 07 April 2001).]
Shinboners
8 Apr 2001, 07:57
So Jod, who decided that the Americans were the good guys and the Chinese were the bad guys?
There is no way that this insident will turn into another war! As most of you would have seen on the news, the Chinese have been taking taking the plane apart and will use anything they will find, no mater how small, for their advantage. When they have finished destroying the plane they will then release the American crew. Plain and Simple!
It just as has been mention above, The Chinese governemt is just toying with the US and making them believe the worst could happen.
The American crew will probably be released by Wednesday! The chinese dont want or need them, they are just holding onto them while they remove parts from the plane!!
Shinners i figured it out by using my brain but i know that your a North fan and Roos supporters usually have very small brains so ill make it easy for you to understand.
America - Free country
China - Communist country
:D
Stealth bomber
8 Apr 2001, 22:50
Are you sure Stealth
No dimpled chads in Wisconsin :)
Stealth bomber
8 Apr 2001, 22:53
I suppose I'm a little biased so naturally I'm sticking up for my boys.
One thing to make clear though...we were not over Chinese territory, it was international airspace, therefore we had a perfectly legitimate right to be there.
I like to think if the incident was reversed, we'd handle it a bit differently than this. But with idiot boy in the White House, maybe not.
I reckon that China is obviously still upset about the embassy thing and holding a grudge.
Shinboners
9 Apr 2001, 07:45
Originally posted by jod23:
Shinners i figured it out by using my brain but i know that your a North fan and Roos supporters usually have very small brains so ill make it easy for you to understand.
America - Free country
China - Communist country
Nice to know that you can see things in black and white, but if you read beyond the sports pages, I think you'll find that it's mostly shades of grey.
I'm not saying that everything China does is right and everything that the US does is wrong (plainly it isn't), but to blindly follow one side over the other without stepping away from the issue and trying to analyse it objectively....well.....maybe you really should stick to the sports pages and leave the politics to the big boys.
Shinboners
9 Apr 2001, 07:52
Originally posted by Stealth bomber:
One thing to make clear though...we were not over Chinese territory, it was international airspace, therefore we had a perfectly legitimate right to be there.
I like to think if the incident was reversed, we'd handle it a bit differently than this. But with idiot boy in the White House, maybe not.
I reckon that China is obviously still upset about the embassy thing and holding a grudge.
Of course China is still upset over the embassy thing. Take a look at Cuba....don't you still have a trade embargo on them? Or Iran...how long before you started to normalise relations after the Embassy hostages were released. Take Iraq, still got a trade embargo on them which hurts thier citizens more than their leadership. Or Libya...the Europeans want to trade with them but the US won't let them. And you're wondering how the Chinese could still be bitter over their embassy getting bombed? Take a look at US foreign policy and thier penchant for vindictiveness. Also, take a look at how frothy mouthed the Americans got over the Oaklahoma bombing....the first suspects were the Middle East terrorist groups and the US media were starting to call for revenge attacks. Of course, when you realised that it was an American that did that bombing....so maybe you guys aren't as rational as you like to think you are.
I don't think the Americans would have handled this any differently from the Chinese. In fact, I reckon if an American pilot died, you'd be sending the Chinese to trial. But of course, Americans killing foreigners (that Japanese boat that got sunk the other month, the skiers that got killed when US fighter aircraft flew into the ski-lifts in Italy a few years ago, not to mention the rapes of citizens at the military base on one of Japan's islands by American servicemen)....well....they can always run and hide back under American law, hey?
This is not to say that China is all peace and justice (clearly they're not), but in allocating who is right and who is wrong in the world, you're going to have to spend a lot of time fiddling around in the grey areas.
[This message has been edited by Shinboners (edited 08 April 2001).]
daddy_4_eyes
9 Apr 2001, 08:12
Originally posted by jod23:
We always have the advantage. If it got serious then the Uk and us aussies would step in a help out.
HAHAHAHHA, australia's defense force has become a joke, first they bought the F-111's the americans de-commissioned then they bought the dodgy subs that couldn't sink a fishing boat.
Please don't take offense to this though.
But in reality when you consider war, australia is a very weak country. Lucky the americans are here to help us, though they wouldn't help unless they got something out of it themselves.
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"I'm not going to waste my life trying to prolong it"
Shinners - C'mon man .... they were in international skies, the plane goes down. The chinese force the passengers off at gunpoint and dont let them fly back to the states, then they keep the plane to get secrets off there enemy. I didnt think it was that hard to understand.
Shinboners
10 Apr 2001, 07:20
Jod23
Now, I know you're a kid and probably couldn't recognise political machinations if Graeme Richardson showed you where he buried all his skeletons, but as simple as your scenario sounds, you a few greater issues at stake.
Firstly, in China. The technocrat politicians have, over the years, slowly been eroding the political power of the military. This is the chance for the military to regain the influence that they lost. So, the politicians have to find some way of returning the crew and plane that keeps the military happy, doesn't give them too much influence, keeps their domestic audience happy (keep in mind, there is plenty of anti-American feeling in China), and allows China to, as they say in Asia, save face. The other issue is that there is a new president and the Chinese politicians will be using this to see how much they can push him to get what they want. The Chinese did it to Clinton, Bush Snr., and Reagan. If you've ever followed US-China relations, you'll know that Clinton rolled over on a regular basis.
Meanwhile, over in the US, Bush has to find a way out that maintains his prestige...he doesn't want to roll over and die. If he gives away too much to the Chinese, then his authority will diminish. He has a congress to deal with that has a large anti-Chinese lobby, but equally, Bush is also bankrolled by a large business community that is largely pro-Chinese (due to their investment there and that potential consumer market of 1 billion people). Ironically, Bush has essentially the same problem in dealing with this as the Chinese do.
So, while your solution seems all nice and easy, add a bit of reality to it and the waters aren't so clear. If they find the right solution, then we can probably expect smooth China-US relations for the term of the Bush presidency. But if we get a win-loss solution, expect Australia to be the meat in the sandwich.
Originally posted by Same Old's:
I think you "a bit" off there, Arch. China has an army of around 5 million soldiers.
oops.
I got my info wrong (er....slightly)- Id read a story which said China was "capable" of drafting an army of that size if need be, considering its population of over 1 billion.
I stand corrected. :o
Just on the topic though here is what some of the worlds biggest powers expenditure on the military is in billions:
USA $259.9
Japan $51.2
UK $31.8
Russia $22.4
China $17
Kind of interesting figures I thought.
Originally posted by Shinboners:
Jod23
Now, I know you're a kid and probably couldn't recognise political machinations if Graeme Richardson showed you where he buried all his skeletons, but as simple as your scenario sounds, you a few greater issues at stake.
Firstly, in China. The technocrat politicians have, over the years, slowly been eroding the political power of the military. This is the chance for the military to regain the influence that they lost. So, the politicians have to find some way of returning the crew and plane that keeps the military happy, doesn't give them too much influence, keeps their domestic audience happy (keep in mind, there is plenty of anti-American feeling in China), and allows China to, as they say in Asia, save face. The other issue is that there is a new president and the Chinese politicians will be using this to see how much they can push him to get what they want. The Chinese did it to Clinton, Bush Snr., and Reagan. If you've ever followed US-China relations, you'll know that Clinton rolled over on a regular basis.
Meanwhile, over in the US, Bush has to find a way out that maintains his prestige...he doesn't want to roll over and die. If he gives away too much to the Chinese, then his authority will diminish. He has a congress to deal with that has a large anti-Chinese lobby, but equally, Bush is also bankrolled by a large business community that is largely pro-Chinese (due to their investment there and that potential consumer market of 1 billion people). Ironically, Bush has essentially the same problem in dealing with this as the Chinese do.
So, while your solution seems all nice and easy, add a bit of reality to it and the waters aren't so clear. If they find the right solution, then we can probably expect smooth China-US relations for the term of the Bush presidency. But if we get a win-loss solution, expect Australia to be the meat in the sandwich.
A kid ... now thats insulting in a way and also quite a coment. Im 20 but im glad to be young for without youth i would be lost. Shinners i wont disagree with you because i will be the first to admit that i am very anti-politics. I just cant stand politics, it doesnt interest me in the slightest, i was just typing what i heard on the news.
But i am interested in your last comment about Australia becoming the meat in the sandwich?? What do we have to do with all this.
Same Old's
10 Apr 2001, 18:24
Originally posted by Arch:
oops.
I got my info wrong (er....slightly)- Id read a story which said China was "capable" of drafting an army of that size if need be, considering its population of over 1 billion.
I stand corrected. :o.
I understand. I was just stating the the regular army figure.
China could draft a lot more soldiers if needed, from what you said.
Originally posted by Arch:
Just on the topic though here is what some of the worlds biggest powers expenditure on the military is in billions:
USA $259.9
Japan $51.2
UK $31.8
Russia $22.4
China $17
Kind of interesting figures I thought.
What's interesting is Japan's figures. Isn't it enshrined in their constitution that they can only use their military if they were being attacted or invaded. So their military spending is quite large considering their military doctrine.
I wonder what percentage of GDP military spending is, for the countries you stated?
Shinboners
11 Apr 2001, 05:48
Originally posted by jod23:
A kid ... now thats insulting in a way and also quite a coment. Im 20 but im glad to be young for without youth i would be lost.
But i am interested in your last comment about Australia becoming the meat in the sandwich?? What do we have to do with all this.
The kid comment was just my little payback for your "North fan therefore you're thick" comment. If you're going to dish it out...... ;)
Anyway, why does Australia become the meat in the sandwich? In the simplest terms, it comes down to this. China is one of Australia's export markets while the U.S. is our political and military ally (although they're not an economic ally considering how they've screwed Australia over trade links). So, if there was to be a prolonged "cold war" between China and the U.S., both countries will put pressue on Australia to take sides on any issues that crop up between the U.S. and China. Australia becomes a kind of powerless de facto jury on deciding who's right or wrong on their disagreements.
Well i see how that would create a problem. Although i dont think the whole Cold War thing will go ahead, bit of a long shot.