View Full Version : It's an even draft
GOALden Hawk
21 Nov 2003, 11:59
We've heard this comment time and time again, but it seems to be the case as many clubs are unsure about who they are taking with their first pick.
Interesting quote from Ricky Barham in the Sun today, saying in 1999 (when the Swans had pick 21) this was the 21st player on their wish list! So all 16 clubs knew exactly who the top 20 picks were likely to be.
Interesting when you have a look at the top 20 from that year:
1. Josh Fraser
2. Paul Haselby
3. Aaron Fiora
4. Matthew Pavlich
5. Leigh Brown
6. Damien Cupido
7. Danny Roach
8. Joel Corey
9. Caydn Beetham
10. Luke McPharlin
11. Darren Glass
12. Paul Koulouriotis
13. Robert Murphy
14. Travis Gaspar
15. David Spriggs
16. David Haynes
17. Ezra Bray
18. Rhyse Shaw
19. Brad Green
20. Paul Wheatley
Roach, Beetham, Koulouriotis and Bray are already gone, yet the likes of Ryan Houlihan, Ben Johnson, David Hille, Paul Chapman, Cameron Ling, Corey Enright, Chance Bateman, Troy Makepeace, Matthew Whelan, Cameron Bruce, Ty Zantuck, Adam Hunter and Mitchell Hahn were overlooked.
Just goes to show that even when all 16 clubs agree on a player looking a good bet they can be wrong, and how tough recruiting can be.
Originally posted by GOALden Hawk
... Ty Zantuck ...
Possibly one of the better Greg Beck speculators! Beck does seem to have a better strike rate with the later picks than with the sure things!
The likes of Andy Kellaway, Zantuck, Newman and Ray Hall have all done much better than the likes of Pettifer or Fiora. The only first round hit we've had so far is Ottens, although Schulz does appear to look OK.
Originally posted by GOALden Hawk
Interesting quote from Ricky Barham in the Sun today, saying in 1999 (when the Swans had pick 21) this was the 21st player on their wish list! So all 16 clubs knew exactly who the top 20 picks were likely to be.
I think he may be spinning a little, considering that Shaw was a f/s pick and wouldn't have been on his list for example. McPharlin was a shock to most teams as well.
Originally posted by GOALden Hawk
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Just goes to show that even when all 16 clubs agree on a player looking a good bet they can be wrong, and how tough recruiting can be.
A player can get injured, have a poor attitude, not get opportunites or be poorly coached. It is a bit unrealistic to predict that Beetham and Roach would quit and walk away from the game for example. Fiora has talent, he has just been on holiday for 3 years.
GOALden Hawk
21 Nov 2003, 12:34
Originally posted by Weaver
I think he may be spinning a little, considering that Shaw was a f/s pick and wouldn't have been on his list for example. McPharlin was a shock to most teams as well.
[/B][/QUOTE]
Spoke to a couple of recruiters about McPharlin some time ago, and both said their club had him on their list and knew about him. The whole smokey thing is a bit of a myth. Although they were surprised he was taken so early.
Even Mackie last year - a couple of other clubs were definitely going to take him with their first selection if the Cats didn't.
One person I spoke to said last year his club had 29 of the top 30 (not in order of course). The one they missed wasn't Minson either - it was a top 10 selection.
Agree on not been able to predict something like Beetham getting on the grog though. Just found it interesting, when supporters are often very annoyed when a 1st round pick doesn't work, yet often he seemed like a very good selection at the time (ie Elstone for Hawthorn).
Originally posted by GOALden Hawk
Spoke to a couple of recruiters about McPharlin some time ago, and both said their club had him on their list and knew about him. The whole smokey thing is a bit of a myth. Although they were surprised he was taken so early.
That is my understanding as well. I was suggesting that maybe Barham was one who might have known about him, but not thought him in his top 20.
Originally posted by GOALden Hawk
Even Mackie last year - a couple of other clubs were definitely going to take him with their first selection if the Cats didn't.
Yes. I suppose to most of us he was a surprise, but the Assumpiton College - Sacred Heart match was billed as an unofficial national school championship. The Assumption team included Tom Lonergan, Bo Nixon and Ryan Crawford who were all in draft consideration and I know one recruiting manager who was eagerly looking forward to the match. Mackie was pretty well known to the professionals.
Originally posted by GOALden Hawk
Agree on not been able to predict something like Beetham getting on the grog though. Just found it interesting, when supporters are often very annoyed when a 1st round pick doesn't work, yet often he seemed like a very good selection at the time (ie Elstone for Hawthorn). [/B]
Exactly. I mean Fiora was generally regarded as a very good prospect and a top-10 selection. Hindsight makes it look a poor pick, but at the time it was OK (although Pavlich was the obvious choice).
GOALden Hawk
21 Nov 2003, 13:14
Originally posted by Weaver
Yes. I suppose to most of us he was a surprise, but the Assumpiton College - Sacred Heart match was billed as an unofficial national school championship. The Assumption team included Tom Lonergan, Bo Nixon and Ryan Crawford who were all in draft consideration and I know one recruiting manager who was eagerly looking forward to the match. Mackie was pretty well known to the professionals.
Interesting you should say that. I was sitting near a couple of scouts this year the week before that match and they were talking about it quite keenly, saying there were a few they hadn't seen.
I'm not sure what club they were (might have been Essendon), but it's interesting given Matt Burgan had them taking Adam Hartlett (a Sacred Heart student).
I guess we will find out just how even it is tomorrow based on the number of players who go earlier/later than predicted.
Originally posted by GOALden Hawk
One person I spoke to said last year his club had 29 of the top 30 (not in order of course). The one they missed wasn't Minson either - it was a top 10 selection.[/B][/QUOTE]
Luke Brennan?
3. Aaron Fiora
4.mathew pavlich
aaaarrrgggghhhhh
Porthos
21 Nov 2003, 13:54
12. Paul Koulouriotis
13. Robert Murphy
That has to be pretty high up on the blunder list.
Originally posted by Porthos
12. Paul Koulouriotis
13. Robert Murphy
That has to be pretty high up on the blunder list.
Have to confess that at the time I thought that Koulo was a good get and Murphy a huge reach. Much easier in hindsight ... with the exception of Luke Brennan, what were they thinking?
GOALden Hawk
21 Nov 2003, 14:32
Originally posted by Tank
One person I spoke to said last year his club had 29 of the top 30 (not in order of course). The one they missed wasn't Minson either - it was a top 10 selection.
Luke Brennan? [/B][/QUOTE]
:( :mad: Gosh I hope he has a better 2004. Mind you, not too many above him have done a lot either. Just annoyed because it was clearly a stretch and did nothing to alleviate our KPP problems.
Libba has already said he won't play seniors until 2005, so he has plenty of time, but I'd be expecting a lot more than BHH reserves next year.
electricsix
21 Nov 2003, 15:42
Originally posted by Weaver
Have to confess that at the time I thought that Koulo was a good get and Murphy a huge reach. Much easier in hindsight ... with the exception of Luke Brennan, what were they thinking?
murf drafted as a 17 y'old
funny thing was he battled to get a game at gippsland power all through the season as the coach was very tough on him
he turned the semi final v murray bushrangers on its head.
played same club as him from u/12 to u/16, i was older but he played with my bro.
my old man said from when he was 9 you could tell he would play afl.
will win a brownlow , his old mgr ricky nixon said he would win one by 2006.
once unleashed he will be dynamite. was a forward / midfielder in juniors