Polls Thread MkII

[pjcrows]

Re: Polls thread

Mod edit - this thread follows on from here: http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showpost.php?p=23435276&postcount=1001


Newspoll (of only 346 voters, a very low sample for a Newspoll, in fact you'd call the figures unreliable)

Preferred ALP Leader
Gillard 30 (+6)
Rudd 53 (-4)

Preferred ALP Leader (ALP voters)
Gillard 41
Rudd 58

Preferred PM
Gillard 34 (-3)
Abbott 43 (+3)

Preferred PM
Rudd 48
Abbott 40

 

[maelcoluim]

Nielsen 1200 respondents over Wednesday and Thursday

Primary vote
Labor: 34% (+1)
Coalition: 44% (-1)
Greens: 12% (-1)

Two-party preferred
Labor: 47%
Coalition: 53%

Two-party preferred (with Kevin Rudd as ALP leader)
Labor: 49%
Coalition: 51%

Preferred leader of the ALP
Gillard: 34% (-1)
Rudd: 58% (+1)

Much better figures then I was expecting for the ALP. The difference between the ALP's vote depending on whether Gillard or Rudd leads the party has narrowed considerably as well.

 

[pjcrows]

How wary are the punters of Abbott then. Bloody hell. Coalition should be way ahead.

 

[The Prosecutor]

I'm not surprised by the 2PP, at the moment, the average punter is being smothered with Rudd V Gillard for Prime Minister, with both being from the Labor Party.

As such, the punter is being surrounded by Labor, with the Coalition getting little to no exposure.

A week or two after when the Coalition becomes relevant to the media again in regards to politics, the Coalition will probably head out again.

 

[pjcrows]

Actually the reverse is true. The Coalition usually rise in the polls when Abbott isn't in the spotlight.

 

[The Prosecutor]

Actually the reverse is true. The Coalition usually rise in the polls when Abbott isn't in the spotlight.

True, but at the moment we have the unique situation where by its not a choice between two parties, rather, a choice 2 members from the one party.

Time will tell though.

 

[bombermick]

Looks like Labor's vote has sunk all the way to those who are rusted-on. Therefore, it doesn't matter, largely, who leads.

 

[pjcrows]

Well, well, well...

Newspoll

Coalition 53 (-2)
Labor 47 (+2)

Primary votes
Coalition 45 (-1)
Labor 35 (+3)

Preferred PM
Abbott 38 (-2)
Gillard 36 (-1)

Gillard approval 26 (-6)

Abbott approval 31 (-5), disapproval 57 (+5)

Obviously the punters answered based on the prospect of Rudd returning.

But look at Abbott's approval... did not expect that after a week of Labor turmoil.

 

[tandino]

The only way I'd explain Abbott's fall in approval is the punters playing him off Rudd.

Because all the attention has been on Labor these past two weeks.

 

[The Prosecutor]

Well, well, well...

Newspoll

Coalition 53 (-2)
Labor 47 (+2)

Primary votes
Coalition 45 (-1)
Labor 35 (+3)

Preferred PM
Abbott 38 (-2)
Gillard 36 (-1)

Gillard approval 26 (-6)

Abbott approval 31 (-5), disapproval 57 (+5)

Obviously the punters answered based on the prospect of Rudd returning.

But look at Abbott's approval... did not expect that after a week of Labor turmoil.

The only logical explanation I can think of for Abbott's approval is that punters think that because he hasn't been prominent this week at all, that he is doing nothing.

Respondents would almost have to be responding under the assumption Rudd would be voted PM.

 

[tombomb]

I think, funnily enough, the newspoll is probably going to be a blessing in disguise for the coalition. Rudd's last hope was that there might have been a catstrophic newspoll on the morning of the vote that got some him some extra votes.

Now Gillard will definitely win in a cantor and therefore Labor is no chance at the next election.

 

[bombermick]

Or maybe there's no logic to the Australian voter, at least those who were polled. Anyhow, the coalition's margin is still very comfortable.

 

[TheGreatBarryB]

I think, funnily enough, the newspoll is probably going to be a blessing in disguise for the coalition. Rudd's last hope was that there might have been a catstrophic newspoll on the morning of the vote that got some him some extra votes.

Now Gillard will definitely win in a cantor and therefore Labor is no chance at the next election.

Or maybe this past week has scared the s**t out of people with the thought that Abbott could possibly lead the country one day.

A lot can happen in 18 months, not sure why the Lib fans on here are so cocky.

 

[Eagle87]

Well, well, well...

Newspoll

Coalition 53 (-2)
Labor 47 (+2)

Primary votes
Coalition 45 (-1)
Labor 35 (+3)

Preferred PM
Abbott 38 (-2)
Gillard 36 (-1)

Gillard approval 26 (-6)

Abbott approval 31 (-5), disapproval 57 (+5)

Obviously the punters answered based on the prospect of Rudd returning.

But look at Abbott's approval... did not expect that after a week of Labor turmoil.

Just to clarify, when was this poll done?

In the Oz, it says "last weekend" is that 25 & 26 or the week before?

 

[pjcrows]

Eagle - the Friday, Saturday and Sunday we just had.

 

[Paradigm]

Or maybe there's no logic to the Australian voter, at least those who were polled. Anyhow, the coalition's margin is still very comfortable.

This.

Aren't polls what got Rudd out in the first place ? Now - apparently - we want him back !

Go figure.

Wish someone would ask me ! All thse polls and I NEVER get asked. Maybe I am demographically challenged in some way I know nothing about.

 

[71" GF]

Gillard 72-31 ,i hope she enjoys the victory ,it's the only poll she is ever likely to win .

 

[Slax]

Gillard 72-31 ,i hope she enjoys the victory ,it's the only poll she is ever likely to win .

71-31 actually.

Now that the leadership debate is over Abbott has to find something else to play his broken record track on. He may be finding that his honeymoon is over and the electorate has got tired of no policies, no ideas and flimsy promises which even he admits if they aren't written in blood he won't keep.

The next couple of polls will be the real interesting ones.

 

[tazzietiger]

Essential

First preference/leaning to:
Coalition 49%
Labor 32%

2PP
Coalition 56%
Labor 44%

 

[pjcrows]

Cheers for posting Essential tazzie.

Morgan Poll

Coalition 50
Labor 50

Primary votes
Coalition 42.5 (+1)
Labor 37.5 (+1)
Greens 11 (-3.5)

 

[Eagle87]

Cheers for posting Essential tazzie.

Morgan Poll

Coalition 50
Labor 50

Primary votes
Coalition 42.5 (+1)
Labor 37.5 (+1)
Greens 11 (-3.5)

Are Morgan Polls officially comedy now?

 

[Nankervis brothers]

I've banged on before on this thread about Labor's polling position not being all that bad for an incumbent government at this stage of their term. I've been surprised that poll watchers such as Mumble (the Australian) and Poll Bludger (Crikey) have not also noticed this. So at last an article that does make this point! See here:

http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/po...urnaround-in-poor-polling-20120303-1ua3p.html


The long and short of it is this:

Nielsen and Newspoll has the ALP's current 2PP at 47 and the Coalitions at 53.

In 2001, at about the same time in the electoral cycle, the ALP's 2PP was 60, the Coalitions 40. The Coalition government of the day still won the following election.

In 1998, at about the same time in the electoral cycle, the ALP's 2PP sat at 56, the Coalitions 44. The Coalition government of the day still went on to win the following election.

In 93, at about the same time in the electoral cycle, the ALP's 2PP sat at a lowly 42, the Coalition at 58. The ALP government of the day still went on to win the following election.

Labors current deficit is not even close to the governments listed above, who all went on to win elections a year or more later after much worse polling.

Actually, by the above, you could argue that the current government is more popular at this period of the electoral cycle than all three of the above mentioned governments that were re-endorsed by the public.

 

[Refried Noodle]

I've banged on before on this thread about Labor's polling position not being all that bad for an incumbent government at this stage of their term. I've been surprised that poll watchers such as Mumble (the Australian) and Poll Bludger (Crikey) have not also noticed this. So at last an article that does make this point! See here:

http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/po...urnaround-in-poor-polling-20120303-1ua3p.html


The long and short of it is this:

Nielsen and Newspoll has the ALP's current 2PP at 47 and the Coalitions at 53.

In 2001, at about the same time in the electoral cycle, the ALP's 2PP was 60, the Coalitions 40. The Coalition government of the day still won the following election.

In 1998, at about the same time in the electoral cycle, the ALP's 2PP sat at 56, the Coalitions 44. The Coalition government of the day still went on to win the following election.

In 93, at about the same time in the electoral cycle, the ALP's 2PP sat at a lowly 42, the Coalition at 58. The ALP government of the day still went on to win the following election.

Labors current deficit is not even close to the governments listed above, who all went on to win elections a year or more later after much worse polling.

Actually, by the above, you could argue that the current government is more popular at this period of the electoral cycle than all three of the above mentioned governments that were re-endorsed by the public.

Yep. One word: Abbott. I'm surprised not much attention has been given to the fact he can only eke out being preferred PM against supposedly the worst PM in history.

 

[Andre]

Actually, by the above, you could argue that the current government is more popular at this period of the electoral cycle than all three of the above mentioned governments that were re-endorsed by the public.

Superficial comparisons without looking at the underlying reasons for the numbers.

In 1993 the Coalition put forward the GST - and a ton of other controversial policies - snatching defeat from otherwise victory against a tired government.
In 1998 the Coalition again put forward the GST and lost the 2PP vote at the election and many seats.
In 2001 - the Coalition were 5 years in under the same leader and accused of over taxing (fuel excise indexing the flash point). They stopped the indexing.

And the overwhelming one that in all those cases the incumbent PM had a strong lead over the opposition leader as preferred PM. If you are trying to say history repeats and using these as a historical guide, that's a valid enough comparison - provided you take the reasons and use those to see how the ALP is travelling, not just the headline numbers.

And using those the ALP will lose a fair amount of ground at the election compared to the last election due to introducing a controversial tax, as the Coalition did at all times they went forward with their proposal. Especially without a strongly preferred PM to at least argue it's necessary and be believed.

 

[pjcrows]

Newspoll (Policy Poll)

Party best to handle:

Industrial Relations: ALP 47 (+8) L/NP 34 (-1)
Climate Change: ALP 35 (+7) L/NP 26 (-5)
Unemployment: ALP 42 L/NP 38
Asylum-seekers: ALP 21 (+4) L/NP 47 (+3)
Education: ALP 46 (+8) L/NP 33 (-2)
Health and Medicare: ALP 44 (+7) L/NP 35 (-2)
Economy: ALP 34 (+6) L/NP 46 (-1)