AFL Round 2

[Keystone agony]

Of course he can play midfield and rebound, we are discussing tagging here, which means his presence as a spread player near the defensive 50 for the first exit target may be limited.

He tagged the entire game last week

 

[Butler]

I'm not saying bet on something because of your gut feel, I'm just saying to avoid betting on it because of it

 

[Dingster]

Carlton ht/ft @ $1.65

 

[KP78]

He tagged the entire game last week

We definitely think about tagging differently. Anyway, that isn't really relevant to the thread creating discussion that creates cash!

 

[KP78]

I'm not saying bet on something because of your gut feel, I'm just saying to avoid betting on it because of it

Fair call, you should keep a spreadsheet of games you would have bet on due logic but decided not to due gut feel, and check the results at the end of the year. Would be interesting to um, put a price tag on your gut?

 

[foxy_dal]

Went 2-1 last week on Supercoach bets +0.88 units.

1 unit Gibbs over Scotland $1.83. Gibbs last 3 seasons have given averages of 107, 104 and 103 while Scotland has averaged 93, 94 and a big increase to 105 last year. Age would suggest Giibs is approaching his peak and should push a 110 this year while I see Scotland falling to a 100 average or lower. Off similar disposals last week Gibbs also outscored Scotland in Supercoach 118-83.

 

[Butler]

Nah no need for a spreadsheet on it. I had a good year last year on my line/head to head bets so I back my method of staying clear. I missed a few wins here and there because of it but I also avoided a few losses. Will trust my judgement.

I do feel the that it will be a closer game than many expect though. Lets not forget Collingwood's injuries all preseason. The Tigers will be dissapointed with their round one match and might come out fired up. They have potential match winners but lack depth around the ground, something Collingwood might also be struggling with their injuries (Yagmoor, Paine as examples last round).

But then Collingwood are a better side, played better than Richmond last weekend and should win

 

[The_Big_Ship]

while I see Scotland falling to a 100 average or lower.

hope not, i've got him

 

[KP78]

Nah no need for a spreadsheet on it. I had a good year last year on my line/head to head bets so I back my method of staying clear. I missed a few wins here and there because of it but I also avoided a few losses. Will trust my judgement.

I do feel the that it will be a closer game than many expect though. Lets not forget Collingwood's injuries all preseason. The Tigers will be dissapointed with their round one match and might come out fired up. They have potential match winners but lack depth around the ground, something Collingwood might also be struggling with their injuries (Yagmoor, Paine as examples last round).

But then Collingwood are a better side, played better than Richmond last weekend and should win

Not even slightly interested in knowing? Great to hear that you had a good year last year, but potentially it could have been even better? I like that you trust your judgement, I was just saying you could have stats to prove trusting your judgement is the most profitable way for you to punt!

I think Collingwood are getting plenty back this week, had a couple coming through the VFL, and I just don't think Richmond are good enough to get within 6 goals over 4 quarters, even if they come out fired up. Will be an interesting one to watch actually! (Then again, I am excited about nearly every game after the first round, still a couple of weeks before we go back to defensive footy I think - cannot wait for the game lines to come out!)

 

[Squall]

carlton under 39.5
essendon under 39.5
hawthorn under 39.5
west coast over 16
adelaide win
collingwood win

@ $15.90

or

carlton under 39.5
essendon under 39.5
hawthorn under 39.5
west coast over 16
adelaide over 16
collingwood over 16
St Kilda/St Kilda (halftime/fulltime)

@ 25.50

 

[KP78]

carlton under 39.5
essendon under 39.5
hawthorn under 39.5
west coast over 16
adelaide win
collingwood win

@ $15.90

or

carlton under 39.5
essendon under 39.5
hawthorn under 39.5
west coast over 16
adelaide over 16
collingwood over 16
St Kilda/St Kilda (halftime/fulltime)

@ 25.50

For what it is worth I personally don't like either, Carlton could be held (even lose) or blow them away, Essendon the same, the rest look solid to me but I think there is easier money elsewhere. Just my two cents though. Adding St.K HT/FT is pretty safe extra value and Adel and Coll should both comfortable cover 15.5. WC will definitely. Hawthorn under 39.5 is another good choice, I think if you get past the first 2 you are in great shape but they both worry me a little bit.

 

[Colson]

where can you bet on supercoach

 

[KardiniaPark]

$4.14
carl
freo +24.5
wc 25+
col
nm -39.5
stk-24.5
haw +24.5

 

[Butler]

Nice bet ^ would be surprised if that one didn't come in.

Just having a look at Betstar and their round 2 special has most goals scored for the round. Petrie is second favorite at $7.50! All over that. Franklin is up against Geelong, Kennedy will have Frawley, J.Reiwoldt has Tarrent. Main worry for me is the weather in Tassie and Cloke, Tippet and Walker. Surely with North up against GWS Petrie will have more than enough opportunity to kick a big bag. Petrie has too much reach for Mohr.

A small one I like is Redden > Rockliff for DT @2.20 tonight. I would be slightly worried if I had Rockliff after the amount of time he spent forward past weekend. Against the better teams he wont get as much supply and Gibbs is a great matchup for him. Also Redden averaged 108 points at the Gabba last year.

 

[KardiniaPark]

Nice bet ^ would be surprised if that one didn't come in.

Just having a look at Betstar and their round 2 special has most goals scored for the round. Petrie is second favorite at $7.50! All over that. Franklin is up against Geelong, Kennedy will have Frawley, J.Reiwoldt has Tarrent. Main worry for me is the weather in Tassie and Cloke, Tippet and Walker. Surely with North up against GWS Petrie will have more than enough opportunity to kick a big bag. Petrie has too much reach for Mohr.

A small one I like is Redden > Rockliff for DT @2.20 tonight. I would be slightly worried if I had Rockliff after the amount of time he spent forward past weekend. Against the better teams he wont get as much supply and Gibbs is a great matchup for him. Also Redden averaged 108 points at the Gabba last year.

$8 sportingbet if you havent put it on yet!

 

[DrParrot]

put a bit on the following multi (paying $36.95) - Sportingbet

Carlton 1-39 ($2.14)
Essendon 1-39 ($2.10)
Westcoast to lead at end of each quarter ($1.30)
Collingwood to lead at end of each quarter ($1.55)
Adelaide to lead at end of each quarter ($1.70)
Hawthorn 1-39 ($2.40)

Bet was done last night, havent looked at odds this morning

 

[HurlsMeister18]

I like West Coast at the line -48.5 @ $1.95 on TAB also to anyone who thinks West Coast will punish Melbourne might also like to have a piece of the following bets and include them in your multi's for some super value....

Pick the Score Double

WCE 121+ Pt/MLB 0-60 Pt @ $5.50 this is a very good bet imo

and for those who think the dees will get over 60 points

WCE 121+ Pt/MLB 61-75 Pt @ $6.50 I cannot for the life of me see Melbourne scoring over 75 against Eagles defence.

I have put a bit on both one out, more on the first one but if second occurs still a very nice profit and have put several multi's which include both of these results covered to pump up the multi price.

 

[sneak]

iasbet referall code msg me

 

[iluvparis]

iasbet referall code msg me

PM sent

 

[sneak]

thanks

 

[Nagoya Roos]

Main bet
- Blues -19.5
- Fremantle ＋24.5
- West Coast over 25
- Adelaide WIN
- Pies over 25
$50@ 6.3

- Carlton WIN
- Essendon WIN
- West Coast -50.5
- Collingwood -35.5
- Adelaide WIN
- North Melbourne -77.5
- St Kilda over 25
- Hawthorn Under 40

$25@ 44.9

- Essendon Under 40
- Fremantle Under 40
- West Coast -47.5
- Collingwood WIN
- Adelaide under 40

$25@ 27.6

 

[HurlsMeister18]

Have done all my multi's for the weekend now can kick back and have a drink and watch the races

I have several multi's covering alot of results. To many to go through one by one. This is summary of what I need.

Carlton at the line is my best result by far but covered Bris at the line for safety. Have stewed over this game all week and come to the conclusion Carlton should win here comfortably.

Ess over 15.5 Wanted to go Essendon at the line at 25.5 but will take safer option. Port win or get within 15.5 will be a disaster.

Adelaide, just wasn't sure of the line here at 30.5 so just an adelaide win for me.

Collingwood at either over 15.5 or at the line over 35.5. Richmond get within 15.5 kills me.

Swans or a Freo win will do me have covered both.

West Coast at the line 48.5 and either result of my total match points bet as per my post above will do me fine. Best result is West Coast scoring over 121 points and Melb between 0 and 76 points. Melbourne getting within 48 will kill me.

Wasn't really sure about the GWS and Gold Coast lines so have left both out of most of my multi's but have included GWS +80.5 and Gold Coast +55.5 in a couple of them. These results cannot really hurt me either way.

Hawks can win or win at the line by more than 10.5. Geelong win kills me.

 

[TheNextBigThing]

Main bet
- Blues -19.5
- Fremantle ＋24.5
- West Coast over 25
- Adelaide WIN
- Pies over 25
$50@ 6.3

- Carlton WIN
- Essendon WIN
- West Coast -50.5
- Collingwood -35.5
- Adelaide WIN
- North Melbourne -77.5
- St Kilda over 25
- Hawthorn Under 40

$25@ 44.9

- Essendon Under 40
- Fremantle Under 40
- West Coast -47.5
- Collingwood WIN
- Adelaide under 40

$25@ 27.6

Really like the look of your main bet

 

[Keystone agony]

People are going very light on with westcoast, if they win by less than 45 i would be very surprised. There game is so hard to beat. NN to onballers, centre clearance bomb deep to forward 50, entire team forward press and pressure until they score. Repeat. Melbourne cant stop that, they dont have any skills to get the footy out quick enough.

For dreamteam i see little value in betting on them so i wont

Redden to beat black

Judd to beat Gibbs

Murphy to beat Rockliff easily.

 

[JuddsABlue]

Collingwood (-11.5) @ $1.28
Carlton (-16.5) @ $1.72

Combined price $2.20

Loaded up on that

Also have

Carlton (-37.5) for $2.75 (1 Unit)

Carlton win into Collinwood win for $1.54 (3 Units)

Australian Rules
AFL St Kilda v Gold Coast
08/04/201216:40
Head to Head
St Kilda @ 1.04

Pending settlement 2/6Australian Rules
AFL Collingwood v Richmond
07/04/201219:40
Head to Head
Collingwood @ 1.16

Pending settlement 3/6Australian Rules
AFL Brisbane v Carlton
05/04/201219:40
Head to Head
Carlton @ 1.33

Pending settlement 4/6Australian Rules
AFL Essendon v Port Adelaide
07/04/201213:45
Pick Your Own Line
Essendon @ 1.63 (-17.5)

Pending settlement 5/6Australian Rules
AFL Sydney v Fremantle
07/04/201214:10
Head to Head
Fremantle @ 2.15

Pending settlement 6/6Australian Rules
AFL Geelong v Hawthorn
09/04/201215:10
Pick Your Own Line
Geelong @ 1.60 (+19.5)

The above at $9