Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2012 Mock Draft

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Sep 22, 2010
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Smokey?
Played KPF for Metro 16s. Member of AFL futures squad and will play for 18s metro. Showing fantastic signs for Oakleigh.
He'll be drafted for sure. Probably inside first 3 rounds.

Not my definition of a smokey.

And I thought I was the only Jaksch fan. Been talking about him for some time but just haven't heard others mention him until more recently.

Certainly has been in the system for some time.

Look forward to watching his year.

Not a certainty yet. But on my radar as one of the talls I'll be watching this year in the TAC anyway.

Hey Knightmare,

Very impressive that you already have done an analysis of the talent for this years draft, and put them in some kinda order. I am sure the list will evolve over the coming months. I will be very happy if the draft order is as you have at the moment, but it is a long season and it is only April.

What is the birthday cutoff for this years draft.
I see that some of the players you have identified in your mock draft were born in November and December 1994. Is Kurt Heatherley (Hawthorn Kiwi Scholarship holder) eligible for this years draft. His birthday is listed as 1 January 1995 ????

What do you know about Heatherley......I think he is playing at Caufield Grammer at the moment. Is he good enough to get some games in the TAC Cup, and ultimately get on the Hawthorn list next year if eligible.

I really rate your opinions.
Keep up the great work.

As Chris25 mentioned those born in 1995 are not draft eligable this year. If born January 1st then will have to wait till 2013 on Heatherley.

Have heard some really positive comments about Heatherley's character and willingness to work hard and improve which is a good sign. Is at this stage is around 190cm, thin build at this stage, unknown how tall he grows. Depending on growth could develop into a key defender, or if he stays much the same size then he probably looks best suited to playing on a wing or back flank with his running game.

Will probably look out for him more next year and follow him more closely then.
 

bumsonseats

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Stringer is in Europe with the AIS-AFL Academy at the moment. Doesn't get back until next weekend.

And the draft cutoff date is 31/12/2014. So Heatherley only has his parents to blame.

I heard that he was born at 105am NZ time, which is still the 31st of December in Australia.....hehe

The article on Heatherley on the Hawks website has him listed at 190cm and 78Kg in 2009.
So hoping that he has grown and put on a bit more weight.
 
Knightmare, just reading through the initial mock draft you're ran through at the start of the thread, and noted that you've got Ben Kennedy at our first pick.
He was one name I heard a bit about last year, and I assumed he'd be rated a bit higher.

Is your perception of him being around at 18, a pointer on how strong other have come on around him, or just how his 'type' may be viewed in the draft as a whole?
 
Sep 22, 2010
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Knightmare, just reading through the initial mock draft you're ran through at the start of the thread, and noted that you've got Ben Kennedy at our first pick.
He was one name I heard a bit about last year, and I assumed he'd be rated a bit higher.

Is your perception of him being around at 18, a pointer on how strong other have come on around him, or just how his 'type' may be viewed in the draft as a whole?

On what he has shown up to this point he would be top 10 - really showed allot at the U18 champs last year and assuming his development continues strongly this year could be in the mix to finish top 10.

At his height I would take others before him. With those smaller types they are often closer to what they will be when fully developed in their 20s, so you take them on what they are doing now rather than on perceived upside and top 20 is probably more of a reflection on where he should go.

At pick 18 Kennedy would represent very good immediate value whether that be as a forward or adding some smark with his pace through the midfield which would probably suit Hawthorn with that more immediate premiership window.
 
Cheers for that. That was where I thought the answer lied. If only he was 6 inches taller...

I think you've got a great handle on our requirements coming into the next 2-3 years, as I've noted you've also got us selecting another mid.

Ideally we'll snap up a ready made mid through the trade or free agency period at the end of this season, but even though Shiels and Whitecross(Woodward, Schneider and Hill yet to show anything at senior level) seem to be on an upward trend, I still think we need to bolster our stocks of young midfielders....and we'd certainly like to be able to replace Mitchell and Hodge with elite talent.
 

bumsonseats

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Cheers for that. That was where I thought the answer lied. If only he was 6 inches taller...

I think you've got a great handle on our requirements coming into the next 2-3 years, as I've noted you've also got us selecting another mid.

Ideally we'll snap up a ready made mid through the trade or free agency period at the end of this season, but even though Shiels and Whitecross(Woodward, Schneider and Hill yet to show anything at senior level) seem to be on an upward trend, I still think we need to bolster our stocks of young midfielders....and we'd certainly like to be able to replace Mitchell and Hodge with elite talent.

Totaly agree Echols......I think our priority for the next couple of drafts has to be mids. Especially with our earlier picks. I noticed some comments earlier in this thread that suggested the 2012 draft might be thin on quality KPP, but strong on mids. We might be able to pick up some flankers with our 3rd and 4th picks.
 

jjami15

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After going to the lions v Carlton game it really did highlight our need for quality mids. There's a lot of noise from up here in Brissie about the 3 R's of Rich, Redden and Rockliff. Not overly warranted as I can't see them being top A grade but certainly will be highly serviceable. So with all that in mind I would have to go against most people's perception and definitely go best mid first, especially inside. With our compo pick and 2nd round then I would be looking more for 2KPP's, 1 up front and 1 down back. If they went for another strong inside mid here I wouldn't be too dissapointed. Rebuild is going to take another few years yet and would assume we are going to be proping up the table for a few years
so further chances to get an A grade KPF.
 

Punt Road Tiger

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Hey Knightmare,

I love your work,

My 1st post, your thoughts on Liam Byrne from Bendigo Pioneers, I think this kid can play.

I am very impressed with Kristian Jaksch, his vertical leap from standing start and reading of the play & drop of the ball are very impressive, he marks it & not just spoil it, a nice kick to.

How high will Jackson Macrea go? very very classy winger half forward.

Your Thoughts on Zac May 202 cm Ruck and Angus Milhan 209 cm.

Keep an eye on 2013 draft for Tom Cutler who shows a bit, quick and highly skilled reads play well.
 

TFLUA-Tiger

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Hey Knightmare,

I love your work,

My 1st post, your thoughts on Liam Byrne from Bendigo Pioneers, I think this kid can play.

I am very impressed with Kristian Jaksch, his vertical leap from standing start and reading of the play & drop of the ball are very impressive, he marks it & not just spoil it, a nice kick to.

How high will Jackson Macrea go? very very classy winger half forward.

Your Thoughts on Zac May 202 cm Ruck and Angus Milhan 209 cm.

Keep an eye on 2013 draft for Tom Cutler who shows a bit, quick and highly skilled reads play well.
I take it you were at the Pios and Chargers game yesterday?

Byrne can play, you're correct. Is quick, good in close and has a hunger for the ball. Covers the field really well. Don't know how good he is overhead or whether his ball use is quite good enough. A very good inside midfielder, at the very least.

Jaksch was one of the Chargers better players yesterday. As you say, very quick and agile for a big man. Ball use was impressive.

MacRea's one who just looks a class above. Waltzed his way out of packs of defenders with shimmies and fakes so often that I lost count. Could go reasonably high.

May impressed me more than Milhan - but Milhan's height surely means that one recruiter will want to pull the trigger.

May's quick for a big bloke and competes really well in the tap - he beat Milhan, and broke even/beat Prowse - but doesn't quite impact enough contests around the ground yet. He's starting to get there though - his second half against the Falcons was quite impressive.

He just doesn't quite seem to know how to use his height and size to impact contests like he should yet, you'd hope that some increased bulk would help - but he seems to make the right spots, and just not go for it and impact contests the way he should.

I know i'm not Knighta - but I thought I'd answer these for you.
 
It appears I'll get to know this years draft crop pretty well...

Stringer, Vlastuin/Toumpas/Shaw and Viney would be a nice few additions to our list.

LOL! Finishing in the bottom 3 for Melbourne could be massive in a draft sense.

Pick 3, plus your two Scully componsation picks will position you nicely for Viney + another two guns.
 
And if no one wants to use pick 1 or 2 to make us choose Viney... then we'll get;

Pick 3, 4, 12 and then Viney with our second round selection.

Used wisely that could really catapult the club forward.
 

Bugz

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Does it work like that? I thought if a club offered a first round pick of any value- Melbourne would also have to offer up a first round pick....
 
Sep 22, 2010
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Cheers for that. That was where I thought the answer lied. If only he was 6 inches taller...

I think you've got a great handle on our requirements coming into the next 2-3 years, as I've noted you've also got us selecting another mid.

Ideally we'll snap up a ready made mid through the trade or free agency period at the end of this season, but even though Shiels and Whitecross(Woodward, Schneider and Hill yet to show anything at senior level) seem to be on an upward trend, I still think we need to bolster our stocks of young midfielders....and we'd certainly like to be able to replace Mitchell and Hodge with elite talent.

With Hawthorn I'd love to see you trade into a high level ruck + key defender. A Hamish McIntosh and an Eric McKenzie type would make Hawthorn dominant - not that either player is available, but I'd push hard if any similar high level ruck or key defender became available.

Through the draft with the strong class of mids I'd go with the mids. They will give you the most immediate contribution and with Mitchell, Hodge and Sewell all 30 or nearing it's probably time to start introducing that next generation midfield. There are few better midfields to learn off.

After going to the lions v Carlton game it really did highlight our need for quality mids. There's a lot of noise from up here in Brissie about the 3 R's of Rich, Redden and Rockliff. Not overly warranted as I can't see them being top A grade but certainly will be highly serviceable. So with all that in mind I would have to go against most people's perception and definitely go best mid first, especially inside. With our compo pick and 2nd round then I would be looking more for 2KPP's, 1 up front and 1 down back. If they went for another strong inside mid here I wouldn't be too dissapointed. Rebuild is going to take another few years yet and would assume we are going to be proping up the table for a few years
so further chances to get an A grade KPF.

I don't mind the Brisbane midfield. Personally I rate the Carlton midfield the strongest in the league both from a best side and depth standpoint so don't read too much into that one performance.

Rich, Redden and Rockliff are a great foundation to build around but I also like the other mids coming through in: Harwood, Polec, Green and possibly even Zorko. It's a young group. They just need a few more years together, but with mids you can add to that group at any time.

With Brisbane I don't like your group of key position players at all. Right now you only have Brown, Merrett and Staker who are AFL standard (but looking at the age of your young midfield I don't see this group still being around when the midfield reach their peak). So as far as I'm concerned with Brisbane it's time to go hard for key position players and pick them early in the draft. Maybe even trade an established player for a high draft pick to get a chance at another high end key position player.

Adcock and Drummond are some players who come to mind who I consider very much disposable if it means moving up into another high draft pick so that you can put yourself in the position to add an appropriate KPP early.

For Brisbane I would without a doubt push for a key position player, but if no appropriate key option is available then certainly another midfielder is a possibility. But you can add midfielders every year from any selection, not nearly as hard to find as quality KPPs.

Hey Knightmare,

I love your work,

My 1st post, your thoughts on Liam Byrne from Bendigo Pioneers, I think this kid can play.

I am very impressed with Kristian Jaksch, his vertical leap from standing start and reading of the play & drop of the ball are very impressive, he marks it & not just spoil it, a nice kick to.

How high will Jackson Macrea go? very very classy winger half forward.

Your Thoughts on Zac May 202 cm Ruck and Angus Milhan 209 cm.

Keep an eye on 2013 draft for Tom Cutler who shows a bit, quick and highly skilled reads play well.

Good to have you on board Punt Road Tiger.

TFLUA did a great job answering your queries but there are a few things I'll add to answer your questions.

Jaksch has impressed me for a while. It's great to hear him getting discussed more. Agree with your thoughts on him.

Macrae looks like a mid draft choice at this stage, but could very easily move up the draft order if he continues to perform. Shows great composure doesn't he? I love the guys with the smarts to be able to create space for themselves to give themselves more time.

Zac May along with Chris Prowse look to be among the better VIC Ruck prospects for this year. May could certainly get drafted if his good form continues.

Angus Milhan at his height will no doubt get considered. Still has a long way to go but if he show strong development during the year then he will certainly have my attention.

The thing I look for in rucks is the consistant development through the year. I look upon physical growth and footballing (production + skill) growth very favourably. With the talls because they typically develop later I tend to use their footballing growth as an indication of their upside - so the more they improve likely the more highly I will rate them, often even over what they are producing now, which is something I only apply for the rucks because what they are as 18 year olds is so drastically different to what they will be in their mid 20s.

And if no one wants to use pick 1 or 2 to make us choose Viney... then we'll get;

Pick 3, 4, 12 and then Viney with our second round selection.

Used wisely that could really catapult the club forward.

Melbourne are committed to Viney so to my knowledge you can be forced to use your highest selection on him. Even if pick 3 - which frankly is closer to where he deserves to go anyway.

But I don't see Melbourne finishing quite so low, even with the average start. I see things starting to click into gear in the 2nd half of the season with more players understanding the Neeld gameplan and an easier draw to finish the season. I see Melbourne more realistically finishing around 13th this year.
 

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What are your thoughts on Jake Neade & Nick Ripppn from rebals?
 

Schnail73

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Hey Knightmare, Happy Easter....

Watching the Chargers V Pioneers game, I loved the way Sam Heavyside went about it. His work and effort around the stoppages got the Pioneers back into the game in the last quarter, which they eventually won. How do you rate his prospects? I dont hear or read much about him, to me he plays in the Sam Mitchell/Brad Sewell mould, inside mid, keeps his feet, can extract the footy through traffic. He's done it 2 weeks in a row for the Pioneers, hope he gets a crack at it for Vic Country....
Your thoughts.....?
 

Tommy D

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Does it work like that? I thought if a club offered a first round pick of any value- Melbourne would also have to offer up a first round pick....

No. We have to offer up our next best pick, or we forfeit the f/s selection. If a team who has a higher pick than us offers up their first rounder, we'd have to offer up our #1 pick. If a team with a lower pick offers up their first rounder, we'd then have to use our second rounder (as CP's aren't used for F/S selections).

Should we finish 3rd last and only finish above GWS and GC, one of those teams would need to put up their first round pick, forcing us to use ours.

Of course they would, given that we have already committed to Viney.
 

Punt Road Tiger

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I take it you were at the Pios and Chargers game yesterday?

Byrne can play, you're correct. Is quick, good in close and has a hunger for the ball. Covers the field really well. Don't know how good he is overhead or whether his ball use is quite good enough. A very good inside midfielder, at the very least.

Jaksch was one of the Chargers better players yesterday. As you say, very quick and agile for a big man. Ball use was impressive.

MacRea's one who just looks a class above. Waltzed his way out of packs of defenders with shimmies and fakes so often that I lost count. Could go reasonably high.

May impressed me more than Milhan - but Milhan's height surely means that one recruiter will want to pull the trigger.

May's quick for a big bloke and competes really well in the tap - he beat Milhan, and broke even/beat Prowse - but doesn't quite impact enough contests around the ground yet. He's starting to get there though - his second half against the Falcons was quite impressive.

He just doesn't quite seem to know how to use his height and size to impact contests like he should yet, you'd hope that some increased bulk would help - but he seems to make the right spots, and just not go for it and impact contests the way he should.

I know i'm not Knighta - but I thought I'd answer these for you.

I appreciate it thanks, yes I was, only by accident, watched the first half, I usually follow under 18's but more from country ie Bushies. I like May & Prowse but I'd like get Macrea to tiger land. Byrnes Footskills and pace were a feature while I was there and was the reason Bendigo was right in it.

Kristisn Jaksch played like a true CHB which is rare in under age comps. Looks a natural there, he was reason why Bendigo didn't get away to far
 
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Mate, your phantom drafts are always a great read.

Given the Dogs have 2 first rounders (and assuming we won't have to use one on Hunter), I definitely think we will try to draft 2 polished users of the footy. Aside from Dahlhaus, we seem to lack a bit of pace through the midfield in our younger brigade, we are probably covered for inner mids, rucks and key possie players...

Just a quick one regarding the teams / pick numbers and the compensation picks that have been activated (I know you just put teams in there based on where you think they'll finish, but still, for accuracy)...

http://www.afl.com.au/tabid/208/default.aspx?newsid=131093
  • Melbourne have activated 2 compo picks
    - After their first round selection; and
    - In the middle of the first round of the draft (i.e. between eighth and ninth placed teams' first round selections)
  • Western Bulldogs have activated 2 compo picks
    - After their first round selection
    - After their third round selection
  • GWS have activated 1 compo pick
    - After Adelaide's first round selection
  • Brisbane have activated 1 compo pick
    - At the completion of the first round.
  • Richmond have activated 1 compo pick
    - At the completion of the second round (I think)...
 

jjami15

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I don't mind the Brisbane midfield. Personally I rate the Carlton midfield the strongest in the league both from a best side and depth standpoint so don't read too much into that one performance.

Rich, Redden and Rockliff are a great foundation to build around but I also like the other mids coming through in: Harwood, Polec, Green and possibly even Zorko. It's a young group. They just need a few more years together, but with mids you can add to that group at any time.

With Brisbane I don't like your group of key position players at all. Right now you only have Brown, Merrett and Staker who are AFL standard (but looking at the age of your young midfield I don't see this group still being around when the midfield reach their peak). So as far as I'm concerned with Brisbane it's time to go hard for key position players and pick them early in the draft. Maybe even trade an established player for a high draft pick to get a chance at another high end key position player.

Adcock and Drummond are some players who come to mind who I consider very much disposable if it means moving up into another high draft pick so that you can put yourself in the position to add an appropriate KPP early.

For Brisbane I would without a doubt push for a key position player, but if no appropriate key option is available then certainly another midfielder is a possibility. But you can add midfielders every year from any selection, not nearly as hard to find as quality KPPs.


The issues that you highlighted about Carlton's depth is what i was more leading to with my comment about the Lion's midfield. I do like what i see from the 3 R's but top teams have anything of up to 10 top line mids with 2 or 3 elite. This relates back to my comment of having a crack at a top inside mid from this draft which is supposed to be very strong.

In relation to the KPP's especially KPF i do agree with you whole heartedly in this manner and am still not happy that passed on Jack Darling. Which highlights another issue in regards to using our first pick on Mason Shaw. Looking at what happened to Jack Darling and also Shane Kersten in regard to sliding down the draft due to injuries i believe that this is something that will happen to Mason aswell due to his broken jaw. In a perfect world he slides to our compo pick that we activated or our second rounder.

In relation to using some of our current players to gain picks i do agree with you on this. I have commented in other threads that the Lions should look at this. Merret would have some currency i believe and could be good pick up for either a Hawthorn or Carlton using their first round pick or for GC or GWS with their second pick. Already understand that our KPP depth is terrible but as you stated by the time that the lions Mids are running at a strength he won't be around i believe.
 

jjami15

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Mate, your phantom drafts are always a great read.

Given the Dogs have 2 first rounders (and assuming we won't have to use one on Hunter), I definitely think we will try to draft 2 polished users of the footy. Aside from Dahlhaus, we seem to lack a bit of pace through the midfield in our younger brigade, we are probably covered for inner mids, rucks and key possie players...

Just a quick one regarding the teams / pick numbers and the compensation picks that have been activated (I know you just put teams in there based on where you think they'll finish, but still, for accuracy)...


http://www.afl.com.au/tabid/208/default.aspx?newsid=131093
  • Melbourne have activated 2 compo picks
    - After their first round selection; and
    - In the middle of the first round of the draft (i.e. between eighth and ninth placed teams' first round selections)
  • Western Bulldogs have activated 2 compo picks
    - After their first round selection
    - After their third round selection
  • GWS have activated 1 compo pick
    - After Adelaide's first round selection
  • Brisbane have activated 1 compo pick
    - At the completion of the first round.
  • Richmond have activated 1 compo pick
    - At the completion of the second round (I think)...

Melbourne would want to get these ones right. Would love that amount of picks so high in such a strong quality draft.
 
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