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AFL round 3
- Thread starter yamahamoto
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Nah, not that much.
Just going conservative while I stick my toe in.I will take your recommendation under advisement, I haven't locked in anything yet.
Nah, not that much.
I will take your recommendation under advisement, I haven't locked in anything yet.
If its a $100 free bet you will only get $38 back you know that right?
Nagoya Roos
Senior List
-Carlton under 40
-Sydney under 40
-St.Kilda under 40
-Brisbane +62.5
$50 @ 20.10
Good luck fellas
-Sydney under 40
-St.Kilda under 40
-Brisbane +62.5
$50 @ 20.10
Good luck fellas
AFL : 15-12-0 (+2.45u @ 55.6%)
ROUND 3 - FRIDAY NIGHT
Collingwood v Carlton
ML - MAGPIES (x1)
I'm taking advantage of Sportsbets "Friday the 13th" offer here that in h2h bets if your team losses by >13 you get your money back. So in effect have a 13pt safety net which I love in this match!
Carlton are flying and the Pies are just going. Well that's the perception out their. Sure the Blues deserve to be favourites here but what have they actually done? Lost all NAB games and beaten Richmond and Brisbane. This is a bit of a step up here. Collingwood themselves haven't set the world on fire, Beating Richmond also and losing to the Hawks in round 1.
The Magpies do bring a few handy players back for this one, Maxwell and Wellingham in particular. Maxwell's leadership shouldn't be underestimated, he is the general down back and when that voice is missing it can affect some players more than you might think. I expect Heath Shaw and Harry O are glad to have their skipper out their this week.
Wellingham just adds more depth to an already deep midfield group. This is area Carlton will struggle to match. Don't get me wrong the Blues top 4 or 5 are top shelf. Judd, Murphy, Gibbs, Scotland and even Simpson. But its the next 3 or 4 that will struggle to match the Pies depth of Swan, Penddlebury, Thomas, Ball, Wellingham, Sidebottom, Beams and even Shaw. If the Blues can break even here they will be doing well.
Another area of concern I have is how Carlton stop Cloke and Dawes? sure Jameson is the obvious match up but he is playing his first game back and will get burnt by either! Henderson and Bower? not feeling real confident with either. One other small factor that is in Collingwoods favour is the travel. They haven't had to at all and the Blues are returning from Brissy. Carlton over the past 2 seasons are 2-10 SU against the top 4 sides. Have they taken the next step? I like the Pies to win a close one tonight and are value with the Sportsbet Special!
(1.0u @ 2.06 @ Sportsbet)
OTHER GAMES
*SWANS -13.5 (x2)
and only leans at this stage are
*CROWS +30
*1ST H - CATS -13.5
ROUND 3 - FRIDAY NIGHT
Collingwood v Carlton
ML - MAGPIES (x1)
I'm taking advantage of Sportsbets "Friday the 13th" offer here that in h2h bets if your team losses by >13 you get your money back. So in effect have a 13pt safety net which I love in this match!
Carlton are flying and the Pies are just going. Well that's the perception out their. Sure the Blues deserve to be favourites here but what have they actually done? Lost all NAB games and beaten Richmond and Brisbane. This is a bit of a step up here. Collingwood themselves haven't set the world on fire, Beating Richmond also and losing to the Hawks in round 1.
The Magpies do bring a few handy players back for this one, Maxwell and Wellingham in particular. Maxwell's leadership shouldn't be underestimated, he is the general down back and when that voice is missing it can affect some players more than you might think. I expect Heath Shaw and Harry O are glad to have their skipper out their this week.
Wellingham just adds more depth to an already deep midfield group. This is area Carlton will struggle to match. Don't get me wrong the Blues top 4 or 5 are top shelf. Judd, Murphy, Gibbs, Scotland and even Simpson. But its the next 3 or 4 that will struggle to match the Pies depth of Swan, Penddlebury, Thomas, Ball, Wellingham, Sidebottom, Beams and even Shaw. If the Blues can break even here they will be doing well.
Another area of concern I have is how Carlton stop Cloke and Dawes? sure Jameson is the obvious match up but he is playing his first game back and will get burnt by either! Henderson and Bower? not feeling real confident with either. One other small factor that is in Collingwoods favour is the travel. They haven't had to at all and the Blues are returning from Brissy. Carlton over the past 2 seasons are 2-10 SU against the top 4 sides. Have they taken the next step? I like the Pies to win a close one tonight and are value with the Sportsbet Special!
(1.0u @ 2.06 @ Sportsbet)
OTHER GAMES
*SWANS -13.5 (x2)
and only leans at this stage are
*CROWS +30
*1ST H - CATS -13.5
yamahamoto
Team Captain
- Thread starter
- #258
Does this sportsbet offer has a limit or you can bet as much as you want? Tooo good to be true...
lolwut, if he kicks 5 goals he will win he MGS that is paying $4.75 anyway. Its hardly ridiculous overs.
jpower
Debutant
Just out of curiosity, if you were to make a multi bet involving the CARL/COLL match, would you then be able to take advantage of the Fri 13th promo by betting H2H on the match?
AFL Money Back Special Terms:
1. The Offer applies to Carlton v Collingwood. Only the 1st bet placed on the match will be deemed eligible for the Offer. The 1st wager must be placed on the Head to Head market prior to the start of the match to be eligible for the Offer.
does this suggest that it would not count?
AFL Money Back Special Terms:
1. The Offer applies to Carlton v Collingwood. Only the 1st bet placed on the match will be deemed eligible for the Offer. The 1st wager must be placed on the Head to Head market prior to the start of the match to be eligible for the Offer.
does this suggest that it would not count?
- Aug 15, 2011
- 23,780
- 8,381
- AFL Club
- Essendon
- Other Teams
- Port Adelaide
Not on a 9 leg multi this week. Not sure why i didnt.
Collingwood are coming in at value now where as i got on them when they were paying 2.10 for a win. Id plus them in at 31.5, Tiggies just to win, Noth +61.5, WCE over 39.5 (sorry they aren't allowing PYOL on this game), Essendon over 15.5, Hawks win, WBD +34.5 (again i got on them when they were paying 2.75 for a win), Port +39.5 (again on at 2.75 for win), freo -20.5.
Try that in a multi pretty safe IMO. Im going safe this week, the value is getting less and less as the years go on, always why round 1 is the best round to bet on if you can analyse the NAB cup well enough.
The biggest worries with the above would be Pies and richmond. The rest are very very likely for me.
Number 4 in the T&C's
Free Bets placed on a selection are excluded for the Offer. Multibet wagers are excluded from the Offer.
Pies under 39 and Sydney -14.5 at $5 for me.
Gave GWS +99.5 more than a passing thought, Eagles team isn't exactly the strongest and have a feeling they will ease to a 60-70 point win.
Gave GWS +99.5 more than a passing thought, Eagles team isn't exactly the strongest and have a feeling they will ease to a 60-70 point win.
jpower
Debutant
Sorry, I meant...
Make a multi bet (which happens to involve those teams)
then decide later on to bet on the match H2H as a separate bet. (taking advantage of the either side by 13 promo)
Unless of course you were saying that multi bet doesn't count as a bet in this case and the H2H bet would count as your 1st wager on the game...
sorry if im not making sense, Fri afternoon .. my brain is dead.
I think the bolded part would be your answer. First H2H bet as you said and the multi would not have any involvement in the promo.
jpower
Debutant
cheers Fd.
my bet for the round
West Coast Over 39.5
Collingwood (+29.5)
Port Adelaide (+39.5)
Adelaide (+60.5)
Geelong WIN
Essendon Over 15.5 Points
Western Bulldogs (+34.5)
Fremantle (-18.5)
at $8ish odds
good luck
my bet for the round
West Coast Over 39.5
Collingwood (+29.5)
Port Adelaide (+39.5)
Adelaide (+60.5)
Geelong WIN
Essendon Over 15.5 Points
Western Bulldogs (+34.5)
Fremantle (-18.5)
at $8ish odds
good luck
X_box_X
The Opportunist
Veteran
10k Posts
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$29 on:
Port Adelaide (+42.5) @ $1.25
Brisbane (+64.5) @ $1.33
Bulldogs (+32.5) @ $1.37
Adelaide (+35.5) @ $1.67
North (+44.5) @ $1.45
$5.51
___________
$20 on:
Port (+24.5) @ $1.58
Bulldogs (+24.5) @ $1.53
Adelaide (+31.5) @ $1.81
North (+36.5) @1.67
$7.30
Port Adelaide (+42.5) @ $1.25
Brisbane (+64.5) @ $1.33
Bulldogs (+32.5) @ $1.37
Adelaide (+35.5) @ $1.67
North (+44.5) @ $1.45
$5.51
___________
$20 on:
Port (+24.5) @ $1.58
Bulldogs (+24.5) @ $1.53
Adelaide (+31.5) @ $1.81
North (+36.5) @1.67
$7.30
Saturday most goals to back or fade as you wish:
0.42 units A.Maric @ $34 (TAB)
0.58 units Nahas @ $12 (Centrebet)
1 unit Gray @ $10 (IAS)
1 unit Banfield @ $21 (Sportingbet)
1 unit Reimers @ $9 (IAS)
0.5 units C.Smith @ $21 (Sportingbet)
0.5 units Giansiracusa @ $9 (Sportsbet)
0.42 units A.Maric @ $34 (TAB)
0.58 units Nahas @ $12 (Centrebet)
1 unit Gray @ $10 (IAS)
1 unit Banfield @ $21 (Sportingbet)
1 unit Reimers @ $9 (IAS)
0.5 units C.Smith @ $21 (Sportingbet)
0.5 units Giansiracusa @ $9 (Sportsbet)
This is in response to the link below.
If I was a billionaire lol then I would consider the $1M bet.
That really is just poor judgement, the bottom line is the bookies are happy to take that, as the theory of gamblers ruin that eventually he will go bust when you continue to bet at those odds.
I wouldnt dare consider that bet whatsoever $1.01 is just not worth the time to include in any multi or H-H. Its a suckers bet IMO.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/afl/more-news/million-riding-on-giants-loss/story-e6frf9jf-1226326006473
I think there is much safer ways to win $10k though I dont necesarily think that this is the round to do it.
Hmmm if Eagles fail to make it to the game, the points go the Giants correct?
So would this mean that the Giants won?
If I was a billionaire lol then I would consider the $1M bet.
That really is just poor judgement, the bottom line is the bookies are happy to take that, as the theory of gamblers ruin that eventually he will go bust when you continue to bet at those odds.
I wouldnt dare consider that bet whatsoever $1.01 is just not worth the time to include in any multi or H-H. Its a suckers bet IMO.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/afl/more-news/million-riding-on-giants-loss/story-e6frf9jf-1226326006473
I think there is much safer ways to win $10k though I dont necesarily think that this is the round to do it.
Hmmm if Eagles fail to make it to the game, the points go the Giants correct?
So would this mean that the Giants won?
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