Preview FaceOff Round 3 v Hawthorn

[TubbsFarquhar]

Very, very sorry for the late thread but I have been caught up in some stuff this week.

V

When: Sunday 15 April, 2:45pm ACST
Where: MCG
Forecast: 27, Mostly Sunny

The Story so Far:
After 2 rounds in, there isn't much of a story so far. We smashed the Suns as expected and edged out the Dogs after being challenged which was a rarity under Craig. However, if we thought the Dogs were a challenge, just wait until Sunday where we face by far our biggest yet; premiership contender Hawthorn at the G. A big mountain to climb.

At this early in the season, it's only the one on the left at this stage.

After a tough game on Monday, there is no doubt the Hawks will be more sore than us which gives us a slight advantage, but we ca't rely on that to win, we need to be able to match it with them across the ground if we are to get up. Can we do it? Let's do a little pre-game analysis to find out shall we?

Recent History:
We've been able to match it with the Hawks recently. We've won 3 of the last 5 against them (with the losses being down in Launceston and a narrow loss in their premiership year), so there is no doubt we will challenge them (hey, if we could beat them last year in our worst season, surely we're a chance with a much improved outfit). The last 5 meetings have ended with the following:

Round 1, 2011: Adelaide 16.9 (105) def. Hawthorn 12.13 (85)
Round 12, 2010: Hawthorn 19.10 (124) def. Adelaide 11.11 (77)
Round 20, 2009: Adelaide 13.16 (94) def. Hawthorn 9.13 (67)
Round 10, 2009: Adelaide 16.10 (106) def. Hawthorn 12.7 (79)
Round 12, 2008: Hawthorn 11.10 (76) def. Adelaide 10.12 (72)

Teams:
[FONT=&quot]Hawthorn[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]B:[/FONT][FONT=&quot] Benjamin Stratton, Josh Gibson, Brent Guerra [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]HB:[/FONT][FONT=&quot] Grant Birchall, Ryan Schoenmakers, Matt Suckling [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]C:[/FONT][FONT=&quot] Brendan Whitecross, Sam Mitchell, Shane Savage [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]HF:[/FONT][FONT=&quot] Shaun Burgoyne, Lance Franklin, Cyril Rioli [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]F:[/FONT][FONT=&quot] Jarryd Roughead, David Hale, Luke Breust [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Foll:[/FONT][FONT=&quot] Broc McCauley, Brad Sewell, Jordan Lewis [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]I/C:[/FONT][FONT=&quot] Chance Bateman, Michael Osborne, Clinton Young, Liam Shiels, Kyle Cheney, Jack Gunston, Bradley Hill [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]In:[/FONT][FONT=&quot] Clinton Young, Liam Shiels, Kyle Cheney, Bradley Hill [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Out:[/FONT][FONT=&quot] Isaac Smith (Back) [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]New:[/FONT][FONT=&quot] Bradley Hill (West Perth)
[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]The one key change for the Hawks is the inclusion of Liam Shiels (assuming he's named in the final squad) who was a revelation last year and will be one to watch alongside the likes of Mitchell, Sewell and Lewis.
[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]Adelaide[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]B:[/FONT][FONT=&quot] Graham Johncock, Ben Rutten, Andy Otten [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]HB:[/FONT][FONT=&quot] Brent Reilly, Daniel Talia, Brodie Smith [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]C:[/FONT][FONT=&quot] Rory Sloane, Scott Thompson, David Mackay [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]HF:[/FONT][FONT=&quot] Bernie Vince, Tom Lynch, Ian Callinan [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]F:[/FONT][FONT=&quot] Jason Porplyzia, Kurt Tippett, Taylor Walker [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Foll:[/FONT][FONT=&quot] Sam Jacobs, Nathan van Berlo, Patrick Dangerfield [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]I/C:[/FONT][FONT=&quot] Michael Doughty, Chris Knights, Jared Petrenko, Brodie Martin, Ricky Henderson, Sam Shaw, Sam Kerridge [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]In:[/FONT][FONT=&quot] Chris Knights, Brodie Martin, Sam Shaw, Sam Kerridge [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Out:[/FONT][FONT=&quot] Richard Douglas (Hamstring) [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]New:[/FONT][FONT=&quot] Sam Shaw (Oakleigh Chargers (Vic)), Sam Kerridge (Bendigo Pioneers)
[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]
Hopefully Shaw/Martin/Kerridge gets in over Knights (that's essentially the rest of the player included in the squad. I'm sorry but Knights has not earned a spot at all). Either Martin or Kerridge are the ideal replacements for Dougie and if Hendo gets omitted, then Shaw is the logical replacement. If he is in, expect him to have a crack on Buddy alongside Talia (neither of them can do it solo for four quarters).


Key Matchups:
Tippett/Walker/Lynch V Gibson/Schoenmakers/Stratton

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Either Walker or Tippett could be in for a big game. It depends which one of them lines up on Schoenmakers who is a complete liability and the sooner the Hawks get Gilham back, the better. However, Gibson is an AA defender and can match it with bigger opponents, so he could prove a handful. If Lynch starts on the ground and up forward, then Stratton could very well be his opponent who hasn't been in great touch due to still recovering from his leg injury. In conclusion, this will be a very important match-up. Defence is the Hawks weakest area around the ground alongside their ruck, and one of our forwards could be a match-winner if we can win it in the midfield and stop Buddy which brings me to the next key matchup...

Mitchell V Thompson
With Hodge still out, Mitchell is still the vocal point of the Hawks midfield. When he gets on top, the Hawks do so as well. If he can be restricted, like in the last quarter last week, then their midfield loses a lot of clearing ability allowing the opposition to come back which is exactly what the Cats did last week. But do we have someone that can stop Mitchell? No but what we've done so far is to allow Thommo to run with the opposition's number one midfielder where both of them have been their team's best player. Do we risk it this week knowing the strength of their forwards? I say yes because Geelong's midfielders were able to do it last week.

Franklin V Talia/Shaw
Buddy was well held last week by Lonergan, but as we know, he is a quality defender. For one of Talia and Shaw (or both) it will be their first match on the competition's bestest and most dangerous forward. They have the athleticism to go with him, he also has a lot of tricks in the bag and if he can kick straight and not attempt dribblers, he could very well be the difference in the end.

The Verdict:
[youtube]Cfy4LFWn5Rg[/youtube]
Unfortunately, this is the song that will probably be played after the final siren. Whilst I think we can put up a fight, the Hawks are still a flag threat with an elite midfield and forward line which will prove too much for our young defence (hopefully Talia/Shaw can prove me wrong on Buddy but I just can't see them shutting him down just yet). Hawks by 23 points.

 

[Vader]

Is Petrenko our "vocal point"?

OK.. I'll stop being a smartarse/pedant now.

Nice write-up. Sadly, I suspect your final verdict may be on the money.

 

[BACCS]

Is Petrenko our "vocal point"?

OK.. I'll stop being a smartarse/pedant now.

Nice write-up. Sadly, I suspect your final verdict may be on the money.

About bloody time.

Hawks by 25.

 

[Cap]

Walker will kick 8

we will lose by 35 points.

 

[beartoo]

Onya Roo. Was wondering where the FO had got to this week.

I think you are spot on apart from the margin. Think we might get done by more than 23.

HopeI'm wrong and we do 'em!

 

[VSTone]

Crows by 27

 

[Thylacinus]

Crows by 7 in a seesawing cliffhager.

 

[SugarShane]

Hawks by 43. I'd be happy to get within 5 goals though.

 

[amer]

Go brodes!!

 

[Crows4Eva]

I think the last few years has contitioned our minds to expect failure against top sides. Although we're going to have to play our very best I'd still like to think we can pull off an upset.

 

[mulz]

nice one r2m!! im still not sure where we at. id be happy with an approx 20 pt loss, would show we are not far off the pace, a gap like that can be made up during the season while we are still adjusting to sandos game plan.

having said that my prediction is crows by 28 points, carn uuuu crows!!!

 

[Twist_of_Lemon]

Hawks should be fired up after a close loss to Geelong (again). I'd expect them to make an example of the Crows ...

I admire people's optimism of Adelaide not only getting close but winning. I don't think the extra break will bridge the gap between the two team's class and skill.

 

[AFC979810]

Am very excited for this game... No reason that we shouldn't at least be competitive - we usually matchup well against the Hawks...

I think the fact that the Hawks have had two huge emotionally charged blockbusters against Collingwood/Geelong with both contests being very intense and physical has to wear them down a little.

Very very different sides from Round 1 - 2011 with us having 7 different players and the Hawks having 6 different players.

Hawks:

Out - In
Gilham - Shoenmakers
Bruce - Bruest
Renouf - McCauley
Bateman - Lewis
Young - Gunston
Smith - Cheney

Crows:

Out - In

Maric - Jacobs
Davis - Talia
Stevens - Tippett
McKernan - Tom Lynch
Tambling - Martin
Douglas - Callinan
Knights - Petrenko

Also important to look at the fact that Hodge / Puoppolo / Smith are all missing for the Hawks whereas we are only missing Dougie (who to be honest has not been a big influence in our early season form missing the preseason games against Collingwood/WCE and only playing 11 minutes against the doggies)...

As everyone has discussed its the midfield battle that will decide this... We really need to get on top here as I don't think our defense is anywhere near good enough to break even with the hawks...

Key is whether Thommo / Sloane / VB / Mackay / Dangerfield / Vince can match it with Mitchell / Sewell / Lewis / Burgoyne / Whitecross / Osborne....

Should be a ripping contest and we should get closer than people think...

Gonna put my balls on the line and say the mighty Adelaide Crows by 7 points.

 

[DangerRoo32]

This is the game where we see how much Sando's new game style has rubbed off on them in the preseason. We will finally see the contested style, hard tackling, pressuring style game plan we have wanted to be tested against quality opposition.

The Hawks will take it up to us and try and intimidate us. I'm hoping too see that we take it right up to them and do not hold back. Key will be for us to use Jacobs centre bounces and around the ground rucking to advantage. No doubt he will smash McCauley (sp.?), but we cannot allow the Hawks to get first hands off of Sauce all day otherwise we have no chance.

I just got this inkling feeling we may scrape over the line if we can break even in the midfield, but probably Hawks by a few goals. Looking forward to an epic game none the less

 

[Freddy Bassett]

With a piss easy draw I think there are more important factors in this game than the result.....

IF Talia can hold Franklin, and a few of our young guns have great games on the big stage, I would be happy!

I expect the Hawks to win by 45 points and us to bounce back the next two weeks to be 4-1 after 5 rounds.....

 

[Lordcrud]

I've assumed Hawthorn were a much better side this year because of media hype and their performances against Geelong and Collingwood so far. Looking back on it though, neither Geelong or Collingwood have been very impressive this year.

I was previously expecting Hawthorn to win this quite comfortably, but I'm going to have faith and back Adelaide in to win this now, or to at least get a lot closer.

 

[footy4ever]

Watching the first quarter of Hawks v Geelong I tried to picture the Crows matching the strength intensity and skill of these two sides....just couldn't picture it.

In Melbourne - hawks by lots.

Very happy to be lampooned if I'm wrong.

 

[WWSD]

Am very excited for this game... No reason that we shouldn't at least be competitive - we usually matchup well against the Hawks...

I think the fact that the Hawks have had two huge emotionally charged blockbusters against Collingwood/Geelong with both contests being very intense and physical has to wear them down a little.

Very very different sides from Round 1 - 2011 with us having 7 different players and the Hawks having 6 different players.

Hawks:

Out - In
Gilham - Shoenmakers
Bruce - Bruest
Renouf - McCauley
Bateman - Lewis
Young - Gunston
Smith - Cheney

Crows:

Out - In

Maric - Jacobs
Davis - Talia
Stevens - Otten
McKernan - Tom Lynch
Tambling - Martin
Douglas - Callinan
Knights - Petrenko

Also important to look at the fact that Hodge / Puoppolo / Smith are all missing for the Hawks whereas we are only missing Dougie (who to be honest has not been a big influence in our early season form missing the preseason games against Collingwood/WCE and only playing 11 minutes against the doggies)...

As everyone has discussed its the midfield battle that will decide this... We really need to get on top here as I don't think our defense is anywhere near good enough to break even with the hawks...

Key is whether Thommo / Sloane / VB / Mackay / Dangerfield / Vince can match it with Mitchell / Sewell / Lewis / Burgoyne / Whitecross / Osborne....

Should be a ripping contest and we should get closer than people think...

Gonna put my balls on the line and say the mighty Adelaide Crows by 7 points.

Also Bailey and Gilham MIA from our best 22

 

[Geoffa32]

If we stick with them till 3/4 we could win it. Like last year.


Just need to make sure we not blown out early.

 

[BACCS]

If we stick with them till 3/4 we could win it. Like last year.


Just need to make sure we not blown out early.

That is the key I reckon. When we are blown away early, our side just isn't experienced enough to recover yet. Keep with 'em early, and the Crows are every chance of causing an upset.

 

[Crows4Eva]

Have faith people, some are talking like we've already lost!

 

[Swifty18]

Am very excited for this game... No reason that we shouldn't at least be competitive - we usually matchup well against the Hawks...

I think the fact that the Hawks have had two huge emotionally charged blockbusters against Collingwood/Geelong with both contests being very intense and physical has to wear them down a little.

Very very different sides from Round 1 - 2011 with us having 7 different players and the Hawks having 6 different players.

Hawks:

Out - In
Gilham - Shoenmakers
Bruce - Bruest
Renouf - McCauley
Bateman - Lewis
Young - Gunston
Smith - Cheney

Crows:

Out - In

Maric - Jacobs
Davis - Talia
Stevens - Otten
McKernan - Tom Lynch
Tambling - Martin
Douglas - Callinan
Knights - Petrenko

Didn't Tippett miss round 1 last year as well??

 

[WWSD]

The highest attendance between Hawthorn vs Adelaide in the Home & Away season is 32,583 set in Round 20 2009. We will break the record tommorow for a Hawthorn vs Adelaide in Melbourne.

 

[TubbsFarquhar]

The highest attendance between Hawthorn vs Adelaide in the Home & Away season is 32,583 set in Round 20 2009. We will break the record tommorow for a Hawthorn vs Adelaide in Melbourne.

44,902 attended our debut match. Unless you're referring to MCG games?

 

[WWSD]

44,902 attended our debut match. Unless you're referring to MCG games?

Yep in Melbourne. I don't know how many times Hawthorn and Adelaide have played each other in Melbourne, but 32,583 is the highest attendance between the two teams so far, which is not that great mind you however it should be beaten tommorow with good wheather and both teams in reasonable form, will see a good crowd in.