Opinion How many wins in 2013?

[Black Diamond]

Round 1 v Collingwood - home at Docklands
Round 2 v Geelong - away at Docklands
Round 3 v Sydney - home at Bellerive
Round 4 v Brisbane - home at Docklands
Round 5 v Hawthorn - away at MCG
Round 6 v Port Adelaide - home at Bellerive
Round 7 v Western Bulldongs - away at Docklands
Round 8 v West Coast - away at Subiaco
Round 9 v Adelaide - home at Docklands
Round 10 v St Kilda - home at Docklands
Round 11 v Gold Coast - away at Metricon
Round 12 - Bye
Round 13 v Fremantle - away at Subiaco
Round 14 v GWS - home at Docklands
Round 15 v Richmond - home at Docklands
Round 16 v Brisbane - away at the Gabba
Round 17 v Carlton - home at Docklands
Round 18 v Melbourne - home at Docklands
Round 19 v Geelong - home at Docklands
Round 20 v Adelaide - away at AAMI
Round 21 v Essendon - away at Docklands
Round 22 v Hawthorn - home at Docklands
Round 23 v Collingwood - away at MCG

Should win easily: Bulldogs, Melbourne, GWS;
Should win: GC, Brisbane x2, Port.

That is 7 wins so far, although we will have to be on the ball against those in the "Should win" category. All are capable of a serious upset.

The 50/50's: St Kilda, Carlton, Richmond, Essendon.

Ok, so we're a little better than 50/50 to beat Richmond, but I'll keep it conservative and say we will win two of those four. That takes us to 9 wins.

The tough ones: Collingwood x2, Geelong x2, Adelaide x2, Hawthorn x2, Sydney, Fremantle, West Coast.

That is 12 difficult matches. Could we win half of these? Could we win four of these? That would land us between 13 and 15 wins for the season which would get us to the finals base on the 2012 ladder.

The real danger for us is we could play very well in the first four weeks without managing a victory, and then turn up flat for some of the lesser games and get rolled. I seriously doubt we will see another thrashing at the hands of Hawthorn or West Coast. Far more likely we will battle to some "honourable" victories.

Thoughts?*



*My lists are based on general consensus. Personally, I have question marks over Hawthorn's ability to climb the mountain again after a few near misses i.e. St Kilda 2008-2011. It also remains to be seen if Geelong have another shot left in them, or if Adelaide can back up a surprising 2012 with another strong showing.

 

[Ahern2Boof]

What's a pass mark for the opening three weeks? I think we are capable of 1-2, no Boomer hurts.

 

[Husk]

I see about 13 wins.

 

[Mixed Results]

I think with our draw this is high potential for a great season and low downside.

If we beat Collingwood in round one, our momentum will be sky high and we will probably roll Geelong (aren't they off a 6 day break from playing the hawks.. very favourable), then worst case scenario we go 1-2 over the next 3 games taking us to 3-2 (plausible worst case is 1-4)

Then what I love about our fixture is the middle part, between rounds 6 and 18 there is only two games I wouldn't be confident about (the two in Perth). In this stretch if we lose to the Perth teams, and then two other games (Adelaide and Carlton are the only other two we might not be favourites for) we go to 11-6 (had we gone 1-4 in the first 5 we'd now be 9-8)

We then have the stretch of Geelong, Adelaide, Essendon, Hawthorn and Collingwood.

10-14 is a realistic guess, but like I said earlier our draw gives us a great chance to build momentum before key stretches.

I'll guess 2-3 in the first 5, 3-2 in the last 5 and 4 losses in between taking us to 13-9

 

[winalotroos]

I can see north winning the first 4, based on the fact we play them on our graunds, if this does not happen, then we are in for a long season.
But I am up about our future and think we will win around 15 games, also unlike this season, I think 15 wins will be top four.

On a side note just saw the interview with Silver, "Mac Donald" CAN NOT WAITE.

Go Roos

 

[Egga]

It's a really tough draw playing 3 of the top 4 teams twice. I really hope a couple of Carlton, Collingwood, Adelaide or Geelong drop away. On last year's form I'd expect to win 11 games. If we improve as much as I'd like and a few players really come of age then we could win 13-14.

 

[Event Horizon]

I'd say 2:3 after the Hawthorn game is a pass mark. 3:2 and we are in for a good season.

 

[Black Diamond]

I'd say 2:3 after the Hawthorn game is a pass mark. 3:2 and we are in for a good season.

It won't be that simple IMO.

It is possible that we could play five blinders in that first month or so and come away with no wins simply due the quality of our opponents, although that would open a whole new can of worms.

 

[B4Bear]

Round 1 v Collingwood - home at Docklands
Round 2 v Geelong - away at Docklands
Round 3 v Sydney - home at Bellerive
Round 4 v Brisbane - home at Docklands
Round 5 v Hawthorn - away at MCG
Round 6 v Port Adelaide - home at Bellerive
Round 7 v Western Bulldongs - away at Docklands
Round 8 v West Coast - away at Subiaco
Round 9 v Adelaide - home at Docklands
Round 10 v St Kilda - home at Docklands
Round 11 v Gold Coast - away at Metricon
Round 12 - Bye
Round 13 v Fremantle - away at Subiaco
Round 14 v GWS - home at Docklands
Round 15 v Richmond - home at Docklands
Round 16 v Brisbane - away at the Gabba
Round 17 v Carlton - home at Docklands
Round 18 v Melbourne - home at Docklands
Round 19 v Geelong - home at Docklands
Round 20 v Adelaide - away at AAMI
Round 21 v Essendon - away at Docklands
Round 22 v Hawthorn - home at Docklands
Round 23 v Collingwood - away at MCG

.

I can see us with minimum 13 and maximum of 15 next year.

 

[TheKanga]

I am an optimist but i can see us winning our first 4 games and then losing to Hawthorn in round 5.
I think we will end the season with 14-16 wins.
The time is now for North to become a feared side of the competition again.

 

[stoja]

13 wins imo

15 with a good run of injuries

 

[The Filth Wizard]

Unbeaten.

 

[Yianni]

15-16 wins

Top 4

Let's Roll

 

[Kcrack]

Would be fantastic if we could get 13-15 wins considering our draw. Would shut up alot of people on this site too..

 

[Tander]

15-16 wins

Top 4

Let's Roll

Yeeeeeoooooowwwwwwwww!!!!

The feeling at the games post the Adelaide win was just electric...Cant wait for bigger games and bigger scalps!

Lets roll indeed!

 

[Event Horizon]

It won't be that simple IMO.

It is possible that we could play five blinders in that first month or so and come away with no wins simply due the quality of our opponents, although that would open a whole new can of worms.

I see it a bit differently. It's up to us, not the opponents. Nobody plays finals footy in the first month, and everyone is beatable. We haven't started well in any of Brad Scott's three seasons. That's a concern. But if we can get our preparation right this time, we can beat those sides.

 

[Gasometer]

Having sat through Moneyball this afternoon I am thinking a streak of;

 

[liam_13]

\
Round 3 v Sydney - home at Bellerive
Round 5 v Hawthorn - away at MCG
Round 8 v West Coast - away at Subiaco
Round 13 v Fremantle - away at Subiaco
Round 20 v Adelaide - away at AAMI
Round 22 v Hawthorn - home at Docklands
Round 23 v Collingwood - away at MCG
.

Every other game is very winnable if we are in the right form - so if we have a good season (injuries, suspensions, general fitness and luck etc), then 14-15 wins is achieveable. Probably 12-13 we will get though, based on 2011/2012 form and venues etc

 

[Only Forwards]

Potential for wins
We would view all of our Etihad games as winnable, we continue or trend there and we will become just about unbeatable there.

minimum +11 out of 13

I see us going 50/50 in Hobart

+1 = out of 2

We probably still have it over GC (despite the ugly win this year)

+1

The others that are interesting are Lions @ Gabba and Crows @ AAMI, say we split them

+1

MCG games against the Hawks and Pies. We need to improve and they need to slide for us to beat these sides currently

0/2

WA games we would need to improve, out last outing there was hopeless, our last game against Freo we were undone as well. Currently we would be;
0/2

That puts us on 14 wins.

But its just guessing. We could trun another corner round one and push every game to the limit.

All the teams that were there or there about could cop significant injuries and we could smash most people.

We could slide and get beaten more often than not

We could be racked with injury.

Trying to pick how many wins we will have next year is like being in a room with no lights throwing darts and hoping that one hits the board.

 

[Tas]

I have us down for 25.

 

[TheKanga]

Screw it, premiers 2013
I genuinely believe we will start very well and surprise the competition next year.
Barring injuries and hopefully LT and Ziebs don't get themselves suspended again.

 

[Saintly31]

13 approx wins is likely (meaning fighting for 8th spot), but hopefully a couple more if we have a bit of luck in tight finishes..........

Regardless of the wins though, would like to see a much more consistent season from start to finish when we turn up each week to play decent footy.

 

[naturally north]

We must win 14-15 games, if we fall and finish say 12th. HTB will have a conniption should we then be forced to use a pick around 4-6 on McDonald.

 

[spurs]

12 wins

 

[Yianni]

We must win 14-15 games, if we fall and finish say 12th. HTB will have a conniption should we then be forced to use a pick around 4-6 on McDonald.

What's the difference what pick it is? It's going to be a first rounder no doubt so it makes no odds whether its 1 or 18.

Nice use of conniption though. Great word!