Draft Watcher Young Talent Time 2014

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Tyler Keitel
Height: 194cm
Weight: 86kg
From: East Perth, Western Australia
Position: Forward, Defender​

Everyone loves a KPP, and Tyler Keitel flashed enough potential at the U18 Championships this year to gather a few fans and become almost one of the 'big name' players in this years draft. He's been a bit all over the place in terms of BigFooty speculation, one week being a top 10 pick and the next he is back in the second round. It seems as though he has settled into a fringe first round pick at the moment, but he could probably stand to drop a little further in my opinion. A lot may well depend on what role clubs view him as being best suited.

Always a talented player, Keitel was playing as more of a half forward a few years ago before a growth spurt suddenly took him to key position height and opened up a bunch of new opportunities. The 2013 WAFL Colts season saw him play as a genuine key forward for the first time consistently, even rotating through the ruck with his newfound height. And it was a successful underage age season, averaging over 5 marks a game and kicking 39 goals in 18 matches. Keitel was also selected as a 17 year old in the WA squad for the 2013 U18 Championships. At times when he was playing in the ruck, he'd float down into the back lines - but he was a forward first and foremost. And not much has changed in 2014. Back in the WAFL Colts for East Perth, he is averaging nearly the exact same figures - 5 marks and just over 2 goals a game. The only difference is that he is staying in the forward half, as opposed to going into the ruck too.

So heading into the U18 Championships, Keitel figured as one of the key players for Western Australia and the best of a talented but underperforming group of talls. And overall, I'd say Keitel was good without being great. His best game was easily in Round 3 against South Australia - kicking 3 goals and 3 behinds from 13 disposals and 7 marks. That game was very promising, he was marking everything coming his way and he was simply too good for the South Australian defenders. It was that one match that saw him jump into top 10 calculations on BigFooty. But, Keitel only kicked 1 other goal in the remaining 5 matches of the Championships. Part of that was due to him doing more work around CHF as opposed to the goal square, but also because he was moved into the back lines for one of the few times in his career. Injury to Dylan Winton and a lack of other options saw Keitel moved back, and I was pleased with what he showed. So much so, that I would seriously consider developing him as a defender. The fact that he wasn't always key position height really showed in his willingness to run the ball out of the back lines. He's surprisingly agile for someone his size, and isn't afraid to take the game on. And his ability in the air translated well into his role as a defender. Still confident enough to go for his marks, Keitel also proved himself as a capable spoiler and read the incoming ball well enough to know when and where to drop back to.

I think I covered a lot of his strengths already - agility, versatility, overhead ability, confidence. Another pleasing aspect is the way he just finds the ball. Throughout his career at both WAFL Colts and U18 Championships level, Keitel has always averaged around 15 disposals a game. He's not one who will generally go missing for long periods, because he can play further up the ground and find his own ball if he is struggling deep.

But as I mentioned at the start, I don't view him as a certain top 20 pick. And a large part of that is because I don't view him as a #1 tall at either end of the ground. Up forward, he projects best as a second tall - more that leading forward who plays around CHF. Like Jarrad Waite at Carlton, who is a very good player with quality around him but struggles as the main target himself. And it's a similar case down back. With more experience, he could well develop into more of a key defender. But at the moment, I see him as more of that third tall - dropping back from CHB to help out defensively and then rebounding. Otherwise, I think he could stand to improve his work rate defensively in terms of chasing and tackling. He just looks a lot more interested when there is the chance that he gets the ball himself.

And when it comes to draft position, predicting where talls go is one of the hardest things to pick. In recent years there have been a few different trends - the first round tends to be the talented and consistently performing talls, the second round features those with enough traits to suggest they could develop into a #1 tall with time and then the third round is more those who are good but project more as second or third talls. So where does Tyler Keitel fit? Well, it'll probably be different for every club and what they see his role as being. Best case in my mind would be something similar to Ryan Schoenmakers at Hawthorn, a talented swingman. Worst case would be more along the lines of Jackson Paine - a capable tall, but you'd still be looking to upgrade if possible. So using them as a guide, that would mean a draft range of anywhere from 16 to 50 - although dropping out of the top 40 would be a bit of a surprise.
 

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A few years ago talking to a recruiter about tall forwards they like to look at a players leading patterns and Keitel as a forward seems to get by with pure talent and not working his player over. Goddard in one game moved onto Keitel and basically stopped him from having any real influence in the forward line. If I remember correctly he moved into the back half and looked a lot better.

Not sure he has that aggressive tight checking defender feel so he will have to develop that if he moves into the AFL.
I love your range, it is so true for us non recruiters to predict talls. It would take years to have some confidence with how you can rate talls and then development will play a massive role in how they end up as well.
 
LemmingMaster said:
A few years ago talking to a recruiter about tall forwards they like to look at a players leading patterns and Keitel as a forward seems to get by with pure talent and not working his player over. Goddard in one game moved onto Keitel and basically stopped him from having any real influence in the forward line. If I remember correctly he moved into the back half and looked a lot better.

Not sure he has that aggressive tight checking defender feel so he will have to develop that if he moves into the AFL.
I love your range, it is so true for us non recruiters to predict talls. It would take years to have some confidence with how you can rate talls and then development will play a massive role in how they end up as well.
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That's one of my issues. I'm sure his work rate and leading patterns would improve, it's what AFL coaches are for after all.

Ariel Steinberg was a similar talent in his draft year (although a touch shorter). He looked a natural forward, with strong hands and plenty of goals. And after being drafted at #31, he is now on the rookie list having yet to make his debut. And also, he made the move from forward to defence - where he looks much better.

richoatthedisco said:
Gregson, Chris. What do you reckon?
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Good little player, does most things well and has played senior football in the SANFL. More a rookie to me though, only 175cm and doesn't really have any top line qualities. I'd rather go for the shorter but more talented guys in Caleb Daniel or Jake Johansen, or use a slightly higher pick on the likes of Alex Neal Bullen. Could easily go on to dominate the SANFL or VFL though.

james_harrisss said:
what are the thoughts on Billy Frampton? heard rumours that people would love to see him lock down a key position post?
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I'm sure people would love that, and it's in Frampton's best interests too. From what I've seen, he is surprisingly good at ground level for a ruckman and is able to run around like a midfielder at times. But I don't see his ruckwork as being AFL quality. Which means, a KPP role is his best chance. Unfortunately, he hasn't really shown he could do that (or gotten a chance to show he could). Maybe a team backs themselves in and takes him as a rookie.
 
Chris25 said:
That's one of my issues. I'm sure his work rate and leading patterns would improve, it's what AFL coaches are for after all.

Ariel Steinberg was a similar talent in his draft year (although a touch shorter). He looked a natural forward, with strong hands and plenty of goals. And after being drafted at #31, he is now on the rookie list having yet to make his debut. And also, he made the move from forward to defence - where he looks much better.



Good little player, does most things well and has played senior football in the SANFL. More a rookie to me though, only 175cm and doesn't really have any top line qualities. I'd rather go for the shorter but more talented guys in Caleb Daniel or Jake Johansen, or use a slightly higher pick on the likes of Alex Neal Bullen. Could easily go on to dominate the SANFL or VFL though.



I'm sure people would love that, and it's in Frampton's best interests too. From what I've seen, he is surprisingly good at ground level for a ruckman and is able to run around like a midfielder at times. But I don't see his ruckwork as being AFL quality. Which means, a KPP role is his best chance. Unfortunately, he hasn't really shown he could do that (or gotten a chance to show he could). Maybe a team backs themselves in and takes him as a rookie.
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Funny thing about Berger is that he won the leading goalkicker award for the club in the VFL in his first year, went into defence to aide development and just smashed it
 
Chris25 said:
I liked Steinberg in 2010, part of me would be tempted to poach him off your rookie list just to see what a change of scenario would do.
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Sure, is Nat Fyfe available? :p

Seriously though, if it put us back into the second round of the draft I'd be all for it
 

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Snoop Dog said:
nah I typically wait til towwards year end. I dont really want to have to update a thread all year as requires much more time than what I have. I also reckon it moves pretty constantly. I have got my top 100 or so listed but havent really done club needs. As for Essendon I've said for a while list is in good shape I think the issue is more that you need inside ball winners to feed it out a bit more.

I would Neal-Bullen, De Goey, Gore could all be players available and possibly even Blakely. Tom Lamb is the next generational Goddard type player but there are a few ? marks on young Tom that have to be assessed over remaining months.

What do you reckon the need is at present

Goodyear is a ball winning inside mid too ,and comes from the local footy factory
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Chris25 said:
Sounds like Waterman is next. Just remember though, he's a West Coast prospect and I'm a Fremantle fan. So don't expect a glowing write up. :p
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Haha, I did notice you ranked him alot lower than Knightmare did on your respective rankings :p.

Always up for an alternative opinion. Cheers Chris.
 
dajesmac said:
Haha, I did notice you ranked him alot lower than Knightmare did on your respective rankings :p.

Always up for an alternative opinion. Cheers Chris.
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I'll do a write up in the next couple of days, but in all fairness I don't have him that low. I rate Waterman as the best of the Western Australians, behind only Pickett. I'd have him well ahead of Blakely and the overrated Garlett. If I were a team picking around 12-20, I would be bidding and making West Coast match with their second round pick. Don't think he'll necessarily be a star midfielder - more of a second tier player like a Braun or Fletcher, so a good 200 game player but one who plays more of a supporting role to the likes of Cousins, Judd and Kerr.
 
drama5 said:
anymore news on conlon, havnt heard anything since he returned
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Not really sure. I think it's more just a case of taking things really easy and giving his body plenty of rest. And the Knights are trying to get a top 8 spot in the TAC Cup too, so they wont be carrying players just for the romance of it. I wouldn't be surprised if he played more for North Heidelberg than the Knights for the remainder of this year, and got himself ready for the Developmental League in the VFL in 2015.
 
tigs2010 said:
Bonus points if you can use the words plodder, overrated and dud in a paragraph. :p
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Waterman will join an overrated West Coast side, with their best players being the midfield plodder Matt Priddis and a dud of a top 2 pick Nick Naitanui.
 
Chris25 said:
Waterman will join an overrated West Coast side, with their best players being the midfield plodder Matt Priddis and a dud of a top 2 pick Nick Naitanui.
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Next challenge, profile a draft prospect using Brian Taylor's wording.
 
Chris25 said:
If I did that, then I'd have to card myself for homophobic comments.
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Can mods get carded? Genuine question, I have no idea if they can or can't
 
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