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Id love to hear reasons why? tibor
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AFL Round 19
- Thread starter TheKanga
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Alright, let me make a few points.
1. Gold Coast are 6-2 at Metricon, with the only losses being Hawthorn and Sydney.
2. Before last week the bottom placed saints were on a 12 game losing streak. Their average losing margin during the last eleven of those losses was 68 points. Let's make sure we remember further into the past than one week.
3. I don't buy the "no Gaz no Gold Coast theory." I instead buy the "gold coast tans don't like getting their hair wet in the rain theory."
I've been burnt this year by overestimating Gold Coast away from Metricon, but at home I'm still prepared to back them. The only caveat being that the weather needs to be fine.
tibor
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Most of them are based on data I have analysed but i'll give some thoughts on a couple.
GWS/Rich is likely to go over I think because of what happened last time. Reiwoldt single handedly destroyed them. GWS are better these days granted, which is why I think they will score more than 41, but Richmond and reiwoldt will still run rampant. If GWS score say 60-70 (which is reasonable given their forward line of boyd and patton + goal kicking mids) then Richmond only need 120-130. Tigers are up and about at the moment, home crowd behind them, definitely capable of hitting that target.
Melb/Bris. Both teams have been tracking well below this tml for the past few rounds. Besides last week against the suns, lions don't score over 100. They just don't have the firepower up forward or the mid field strength to get it there. Last week was an anomaly because the suns sans ablett are a neafl team. Combine this with melbournes defensive mindset, and the fact they couldn't score more than 50 points against witches hats. Ok ill give them some credit, let's say 70 max. This means Brisbane need more than 95 to cover the TML over. Ain't happening. Plus it's melbourne in the winter, it'll probably rain.
Freo/Carl. Ok so the dockers got beaten by the rabble that is st kilda. Nay, they were flogged. Ross Lyon doesn't take that kind of s**t. The players will be shitting themselves in anticipation of doing their papa proud this week. In front of a subi crowd Carlton will be locked down. Waite and henderson will be useless. Their mids will be outclassed. Freos wall defence will hold strong. Carlton just won't be able to dent the scoreboard. Give them say a couple goals per quarter, 50-60 points for the game. Freo dont usdually score higher than 100-110. Only concern here for me is that Carlton totally implode and Freo cross the tml on their own lol
Yes but they are paying what 1.33 head to head? How is that value? Unless you mean on the line?
Has it rained in every game without Ablett? That would be an almighty coincidence. Otherwise I give much more weight to the fact they are what 0-6 without him now.
Melbourne vs Brisbane game is at Etihad.
5U Melbourne/Brisbane Under 165.5 @ 1.91 (Bet 365)
Agree with tibor, Lions just don't have any forwards and Melbourne play a really defensive game.
Agree with tibor, Lions just don't have any forwards and Melbourne play a really defensive game.
Jay-Z
North's Enforcer
Agree with most of these but will give you two warnings:
1. North's avg TMP at Etihad is much higher than other grounds and 4 of our last 5 games at Etihad have cleared the 189 line.
2. As a general rule, I never bet unders on a Hawks game. They are 14-3 against their TMP lines this year
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Regardless of the situational and statistical aspects of capping the game, I think how does odds of 1.27 represent value is a better question!
To say they are value at that price is quite astonishing and to say they lost that game because of the rain is ridiculous. They were 40 points down before it even started, the rain probably stopped them losing by 150. It was one of the more limp wristed performances you'll see. I have no interest in betting on a team and wondering if they will feel like trying that week.
alex mcanulty
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100 on northSU 2.45
100 on lions SU 2.25
Will mulit these to head to heads 5.52 0.5u
Will probly put 100 on saints but will wait till teams are named
But will chuck a sneaky bet on a muliti of lions saints and north head to heads of 19.56 0.2u
All with sportsbet
100 on lions SU 2.25
Will mulit these to head to heads 5.52 0.5u
Will probly put 100 on saints but will wait till teams are named
But will chuck a sneaky bet on a muliti of lions saints and north head to heads of 19.56 0.2u
All with sportsbet
I have a feeling Gold Coast will respond and win this week, although those odds ($1.27) are ridiculous for a team that just got annihilated by Brisbane (not to mention they are playing a team that just demolished last years Grand Finalists).
tibor
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Yeah those two are of concern. Last time they played petrie, nahas, bastinac, thomas were the main scorers. Nahas is out, bastinac's form is woeful, petrie has been kept quiet since the hawks game, thomas being the only real concern. Hawkins seems to give north a problem, granted. With swallow and johnson back since they last played the battle in the midfield will be a lot tighter I think it'll go close, but i'm leaning toward the under. It'll go 220+ watch.
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Can you tell me how many games at Etihad his season have gone 165 or less?
I think its been just 4 since Round 3
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tibor
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Can you tell me how many games at Etihad his season have gone 165 or less?
I think its been just 4 since Round 3
It's too simplistic to say it's at etihad, it's going to be high scoring. The ground can definitely bring out the potential of a team to score well, but that doesn't mean it will.
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stats don't lie. Id be avoiding even though im probably leaning unders will look for better bets.
Melbourne average 61 points for and 83 against and the Lions average 67 and 99 against. There are some more stats for you. I like this bet.
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SC Bets
0.25U Ballantyne <81.5 SC @1.87
0.25U Jaeger Omeara <105.5 SC @1.75
0.25U Stokes <108.5 SC @1.75
0.25U Hodge <99.5 SC @1.75
0.25U Wines <106.5 SC @1.75
All these players this year have only covered about 25-35%.
Raising Unit size after a successful week, last week.
0.25U Ballantyne <81.5 SC @1.87
0.25U Jaeger Omeara <105.5 SC @1.75
0.25U Stokes <108.5 SC @1.75
0.25U Hodge <99.5 SC @1.75
0.25U Wines <106.5 SC @1.75
All these players this year have only covered about 25-35%.
Raising Unit size after a successful week, last week.
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Considering 4 of the last 30 games played at ES have gone under, I wouldn't be touching it for that very reason. Yes both teams score poorly but they wouldn't be at this ground would they?
Stkilda vs Freo last week (Both poor scoring teams, covered easily).
Carl vs Stkilda both avg/poor scoring sides and more defensive than anything, score over 200
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Sydney H2H
Adelaide/WCE U180.5
St Kilda 1-39
NM H2H
Brisbane H2H
1U @ 51.48
1.25U Carlton +32.5 @ 1.92
1.25U Freo Carlton U167.5
3.75U Brisbane H2H @ 2.20
2U North H2H @ 2.45
1.25U Hawthorn -35.5 @ 1.92
2.5U St Kilda H2H @ 3.35
Adelaide/WCE U180.5
St Kilda 1-39
NM H2H
Brisbane H2H
1U @ 51.48
1.25U Carlton +32.5 @ 1.92
1.25U Freo Carlton U167.5
3.75U Brisbane H2H @ 2.20
2U North H2H @ 2.45
1.25U Hawthorn -35.5 @ 1.92
2.5U St Kilda H2H @ 3.35
tibor
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Look at the teams who call Etihad home. North Melbourne, Richmond, St Kilda, Essendon, Carlton, Western Bulldogs. These teams are typically involved in high scoring games. Not necessarily kicking huge scores themselves, but are involved in games that have a higher total score. The idea that Etihad is a high scoring ground is likely a product of the lack of weather and more importantly the quality of the teams who regularly play there.
Brisbane and Melbourne's play style, player roster and ability don't change because of the lack of weather or the ground they play on. At the end of the day Melbourne still have an overly defensive game plan and Brisbane still have a mediocre forward line and midfield.
2 units Heppell under 108.5 SC @ $1.75
Averaging 105 and gone under in 6 of last 9 despite being in pretty good form. Playing Swans away helps and he is a chance to recieve some attention .
2 units O'Meara under 105.5 SC @ $1.75
Averaging 100 and has gone under 7 of last 9 with 5 scores below 90.
Averaging 105 and gone under in 6 of last 9 despite being in pretty good form. Playing Swans away helps and he is a chance to recieve some attention .
2 units O'Meara under 105.5 SC @ $1.75
Averaging 100 and has gone under 7 of last 9 with 5 scores below 90.
