Oppo Camp Non-Essendon Thread X

[Resistor]

I think after last year, it was fairly valid to think that they could be in the finals this year, dunno about previous years to that however

 

[Jade]

I think after last year, it was fairly valid to think that they could be in the finals this year, dunno about previous years to that however

Yeah I didn't think so.

Moreover I had bets with Richmond folk (imbeciles) telling them they'd miss finals; and I'll be collecting some drooling dopey scalps very soon.

Maybe it was just me, but it was clear as the nose on my face that Richmond were a relatively mundane side.

In their last 15 games last year, they played four finalists. Four. Granted, wins against Hawthorn and Freo looked good on paper - but neither of those sides gave a toss about those games and both followed up with a succession of wins following the wakeup call.

Were absolute certainties to miss finals this year.

 

[Doss]

To be fair though, you cannot say any side that finishes with a season record of 15-7 is a 'certainty' to miss finals the next year.

 

[Jade]

To be fair though, you cannot say any side that finishes with a season record of 15-7 is a 'certainty' to miss finals the next year.

Well I did. And I was right. So there's that....

 

[Doss]

Well I did. And I was right. So there's that....

No, you made a bold statement and were proven right.

Hindsight doesn't make it a certainty at the start of 2014.

There are only a few sides I would have had as having no chance whatsoever of playing finals at the start of the 2014 season: St Kilda, Melbourne, Brisbane, GWS and probably Carlton. Footscray and West Coast were almost there too.

 

[Jade]

No, you made a bold statement and were proven right.

Hindsight doesn't make it a certainty at the start of 2014.

There are only a few sides I would have had as having no chance whatsoever of playing finals at the start of the 2014 season: St Kilda, Melbourne, Brisbane, GWS and probably Carlton. Footscray and West Coast were almost there too.

Honestly I would have given Brisbane a greater chance than the Tigers of playing finals.

 

[Doss]

Honestly I would have given Brisbane a greater chance than the Tigers of playing finals.

You mean the same Brisbane that lost four or five players, have an incredibly young and inexperienced side and with a new coach following a lot of upheaval?

Now you're just joshin', mate.

 

[Jade]

You mean the same Brisbane that lost four or five players, have an incredibly young and inexperienced side and with a new coach following a lot of upheaval?

Now you're just joshin', mate.

That's the one.

To be fair, I didn't think either would play finals - but yeah, had the question been asked of me directly I would have said Brisbane.

 

[Halftimehero]

Is the round 23 scheduling being released today?

 

[Lord Nicholson]

Yeah I didn't think so.

Moreover I had bets with Richmond folk (imbeciles) telling them they'd miss finals; and I'll be collecting some drooling dopey scalps very soon.

Maybe it was just me, but it was clear as the nose on my face that Richmond were a relatively mundane side.

In their last 15 games last year, they played four finalists. Four. Granted, wins against Hawthorn and Freo looked good on paper - but neither of those sides gave a toss about those games and both followed up with a succession of wins following the wakeup call.

Were absolute certainties to miss finals this year.

Quoted because a like was not enough.

The Football media are such an easy lay. See also: the expectations on West Coast last year.

 

[BrewSmackerVeiny]

Well I did. And I was right. So there's that....

Well done on that 1, it wasn't you who predicted Hawthorn to be bottom 4 in 2013 was it?

 

[Jade]

Well done on that 1, it wasn't you who predicted Hawthorn to be bottom 4 in 2013 was it?

Sure was. I also thought Neagle would be a very good KPF, Gumbleton would make it, Buddy would go to GWS, Geelong would fall in 2012, West Coast would win the 2013 flag and a host of other things that never eventuated.

 

[Drummer_19]

No, you made a bold statement and were proven right.

Hindsight doesn't make it a certainty at the start of 2014.

There are only a few sides I would have had as having no chance whatsoever of playing finals at the start of the 2014 season: St Kilda, Melbourne, Brisbane, GWS and probably Carlton. Footscray and West Coast were almost there too.

Explained well here...

Hindsight bias
Once an event has already occurred, we are likely to believe that the event was predictable, even when there was little or no basis for predicting it prior to its occurrence. Hindsight bias sometimes even causes us to believe not only that an unforeseeable outcome was predictable, but also that we in fact predicted it. This causes overconfidence in our subsequent predictions because we use our distorted memories of success as evidence of our prediction abilities.

 

[Beerfish]

Explained well here...

That's all well and good but it's Richmond we're talking about here.

Richmond.

 

[Jade]

Nah....

You can all go plant yourselves firmly on whatever fence you see fit - personally I'll keep calling it as I see it (such as Richmond being no hope to play finals in 2014) without fear of being wrong.

I'd rather swing and miss than be too terrified to get in the game.

 

[Drummer_19]

Nah....

You can all go plant yourselves firmly on whatever fence you see fit - personally I'll keep calling it as I see it (such as Richmond being no hope to play finals in 2014) without fear of being wrong.

I'd rather swing and miss than be too terrified to get in the game.

I have one for that too

Overconfidence bias
Overconfidence bias is the tendency of people to systematically overestimate the probability that their beliefs are true.

A common method for studying overconfidence involves asking people how confident they are in certain beliefs or answers to questions. If people were not overconfident then answers that people judged to be correct with a probability of 90% would be correct 90% of the time, those judged to be correct with a probability of 80% would be correct 80% of the time, and so on.

Instead, people are systematically overconfident in their answers and beliefs. In some quizzes, subjects rated answers as “99% certain” but were actually incorrect on 40% of these occasions.

A related phenomonen is illusory superiority, which reflects people’s tendency to be overconfident in their own abilities.

You can call it fence sitting, I think i'd rather be self aware that everything I believe may or not be correct which I think is a lot more helpful for evaluation and making better decisions in the future.

 

[Pweter]

Sure was. I also thought Neagle would be a very good KPF, Gumbleton would make it, Buddy would go to GWS, Geelong would fall in 2012, West Coast would win the 2013 flag and a host of other things that never eventuated.

Throw enough darts, eventually you'll hit the bullseye

 

[Jade]

I have one for that too

You can call it fence sitting, I think i'd rather be self aware that everything I believe may or not be correct which I think is a lot more helpful for evaluation and making better decisions in the future.

Your first one was appropriate, second one was not. I'm more than happy to admit that not only do I make errors, but would gladly point out what they were.

Yes, I would call it fence sitting. More, I'd call it a lack of confidence in your own ability to back to your own analysis.

A quote that I like (and you'll forgive me for not knowing the responsible party off the top of my head):

"I'd rather be strongly wrong than weakly right"

 

[Jade]

Throw enough darts, eventually you'll hit the bullseye

I prefer, 'even a broken clock is right twice a day'.

 

[Drummer_19]

Your first one was appropriate, second one was not. I'm more than happy to admit that not only do I make errors, but would gladly point out what they were.

Yes, I would call it fence sitting. More, I'd call it a lack of confidence in your own ability to back to your own analysis.

A quote that I like (and you'll forgive me for not knowing the responsible party off the top of my head):

"I'd rather be strongly wrong than weakly right"

Yeh, that's fair. I personally am an introvert so for me I'll def always be more quiet and deliberate with these things.

 

[Jade]

Yeh, that's fair. I personally am an introvert so for me I'll def always be more quiet and deliberate with these things.

Not an accusation levelled at me often - so I think we can see the difference here.

 

[Kong]

Yeh, that's fair. I personally am an introvert so for me I'll def always be more quiet and deliberate with these things.

Except for when it comes to Dexter amirite.

 

[Kong]

Not an accusation levelled at me often - so I think we can see the difference here.

I remember when I met you thinking "he's a lot more reasonable in person. Nice."

Within 10 minutes I retracted my own thought.

 

[Drummer_19]

Except for when it comes to Dexter amirite.

Yeh, but I was right on that one

 

[Jade]

I remember when I met you thinking "he's a lot more reasonable in person. Nice."

Within 10 minutes I retracted my own thought.

**** you too......