Aussies Aussie watch - Towards Rio

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queenslandfan

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Thought I would start a thread where we could post results of our athletes in olympics events on the way to Rio.

At the moment, if these athletes keep some consistency, I see these as our really solid gold medal chances based on world rankings and past world championship results.

Swimming
4x100 women's freestyle
100m women's freestyle (Cate or Bronte Campbell)

Sailing
Laser - Tom Burton
Men's 470 - Mat Belcher and Will Ryan

Hockey
Men's team

Rowing
Women's single sculls - Kim Crowe

Cycling
Men's team pursuit

Then there are a whole swag of athletes who are in contention for gold.
- Caroline Buchanan - BMX (but this a lottery)
- Jessica Fox - Kayak Slalom (Would be solid gold medal chance if there was canoe in the olympics for women, but as silver medalist and in another lottery event shes a chance of gold in the kayak)
- Carmen Marton - Taekwondo (Won world champs last year, could be a solid medal chance)
- Lateisha Scanlan (Ranked 3rd in the women's skeet)
- Track events like the Keiren and Sprint (Depends on how further Stephanie Morton develops).

Athletes to keep an eye on:
Emma McKeon (freestyle and butterfly)
Eleanor Patterson (high jump, needs to get over 2m and more)
Mack Horton (1500m freestyle)
Emma Jackson (triathlon)
Matthew Glaezter (Sprint & Keiren cycling)


Add more if you can think of any
 
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always with a 1/100 shot at the road race. seems like it is fairly hilly, with a flat sprint finish along the beach, so that should help us. (Gerro and Matthews)

and of course the BMX is a lottery based on little skill. Annette Edmondson should medal in the womens omnium, but hasnt look like beating Trott or Hammer.

good news for Aus is that countries are allowed 2 people in the Sprints. So Meares and Mortan will be able to race. in saying that, on current form, i dont expect either men or women to win the sprints(Kerrin is unpredictable)
 

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Norm Smith Medallist
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Not an expert in all these sports but here are a few possible medal chances that haven't been mentioned. Might add to this later.
Sam Willioughby-bmx(lottery)
James Magnussen/Cam Mcevoy(think the latter more likely
Womens hockey and basketball teams
Womens rugby sevens- think they finished 2nd in irb womens sevens series and won at youth olympics
 
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Norm Smith Medallist
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Jess Fox won both the C1 and K1 titles at the world championships , some good form there. Caroline Buchanan won the UCI BMX Supercross World Cup series, interesting to see how she goes at Rio, bit of a lottery event though. Our sailing team has qualified in six of the 10 sailing events for 2016, being the 470, Laser, 49er, 49er FX, Nacra 17 and Finn classes. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/spo...066196464?nk=c6e149b366e6e74d3d3df52fd093ae5f
 

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Norm Smith Medallist
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There are three events remaining in the Rugby 7s World Series this year which acts as a qualifier for the Olympics and we are in the middle of a dog fight with England. Top 4 qualify for the Olympics and we are currently in fourth place with England being just 6 points behind us in fifth place. We've had a shocker at the Japanese Sevens this weekend and can only gain a maximum of 8 points. England have done well and at a minimum will gain 15 points. This means, best case scenario, England will be ahead of us by 1 point at the end of the Japan Sevens event. There are two more events to go in Scotland (9-10 May) and England (16-17 May) and we're much better off finishing in the top 4 in this event than relying on the 1 spot available for an Oceania team or the 1 other spot available in the repechage qualifying. Usually Oceania qualifying is a breeze for us in most sports but the little Pacific Island nations are actually really strong in the Rugby 7s so we're better off just guaranteeing our qualification through the World Series route.
 

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Norm Smith Medallist
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The worst possible outcome eventuated. England now have us covered by 9 points. We now have to rely on England under performing at one of the upcoming events but I doubt they will considering both are being held in the UK. Hopefully we draw them in our group and hold our destiny in our own hands.
 

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Norm Smith Medallist
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The worst possible outcome eventuated. England now have us covered by 9 points. We now have to rely on England under performing at one of the upcoming events but I doubt they will considering both are being held in the UK. Hopefully we draw them in our group and hold our destiny in our own hands.
Australia ended up winning their group containing England only to lose in the QF to USA 14-7:$, then drew South Africa in and lost to them in the Plate Semis 21-12 after having an early lead. Barring an unlikely occurrence of Australia winning in London and England losing pretty much all their matches they will likely have to play the Oceanic competition where the winner gets through, the main difficulty being Samoa with Fiji and New Zealand already qualified.
 

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Norm Smith Medallist
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Australia ended up winning their group containing England only to lose in the QF to USA 14-7:$, then drew South Africa in and lost to them in the Plate Semis 21-12 after having an early lead. Barring an unlikely occurrence of Australia winning in London and England losing pretty much all their matches they will likely have to play the Oceanic competition where the winner gets through, the main difficulty being Samoa with Fiji and New Zealand already qualified.
So annoying. What kind of world are we living in when the United States can beat us two times consecutively in rugby? The little pacific island nations are quite capable of keeping us out of the rugby Olympics tournament next year.
 

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Norm Smith Medallist
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So annoying. What kind of world are we living in when the United States can beat us two times consecutively in rugby? The little pacific island nations are quite capable of keeping us out of the rugby Olympics tournament next year.
Think there's 1 more qualification tournament after that containing all the teams that haven't either qualified via the top 4 or via their continent based event. So a few opportunities left , even though this feels like a big one missed.
 

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Norm Smith Medallist
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Think there's 1 more qualification tournament after that containing all the teams that haven't either qualified via the top 4 or via their continent based event. So a few opportunities left , even though this feels like a big one missed.
Presuming we don't pull off a miracle in England, we'll have two more shots at qualifying. I would like to think we would beat teams like Samoa and Papua New Guinea in the Oceania qualifying tournament but I'm not out of touch enough to think it's a sure thing. That tournament is being held in New Zealand so we don't have any sort of home advantage in that one. With any luck we'll be chosen to host the final qualifying tournament, should we miss out on the Oceania spot.
 

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Norm Smith Medallist
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Women's rugby sevens team won the London event, as a result they are joint 2nd with Canada and 10 points ahead of USA and France with 1 event to play.

The men's team made the final beating Scotland 31-19 and the series champions Fiji 33-7. Wonder where this was last week. Will face US after they beat England 43-12.:$ England already qualified for Rio as a result of making the Quarter Finals, so will have to win in November.

Triathletes in good form, Ryan Fisher winning the Chinese event and Gentle and Moffat picking up podium finishes in Yokohama for the women.
 
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In taekwondo our reigning World Champion Carmen Marton suffered a first round loss in the World Champs after suffering illness before the tournament start (can't remember what it is) but her younger sister Caroline got through to the round of 16 before losing to the eventual champion from Korea. Both are medal chances if they get a good draw.
 

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Norm Smith Medallist
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I think our basketball team has a good shot at a medal in Rio. We have a two-game qualification series against New Zealand on 15 & 18 August this year and we should breeze through that. Our NBA guard depth is quite strong with the likes of Mills, Dellavedova and Exum. A few NBA bigs in the form of Bogut and Baynes. But, perhaps our best kept secret is Ben Simmons. He was voted the best high school basketball player in the United States this year and will enter the college system over the 2015-16 season. He stands 6'10 and can comfortably play anywhere between the 1-4 positions (like LeBron James).

If Bogut can stay healthy for once and the other guys don't get injured then we have a genuine shot at a medal in Rio. Funnily enough, four of those five guys I mentioned also played Aussie rules in their junior years.
 
May 8, 2007
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Big crash for Sally Pearson in the hurdles last night - looks like she hurt her wrist/forearm when she landed. Don't know how bad yet. Update: 2 broken bones in her arm.

Actually looked like something went wrong before she fell - rumours of achilles problem.

Current WC Rollins crashed in the same race, and the World Leader this year almost did - but stopped in time. Hurdles can be serious................

 

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Big crash for Sally Pearson in the hurdles last night - looks like she hurt her wrist/forearm when she landed. Don't know how bad yet. Update: 2 broken bones in her arm.

Actually looked like something went wrong before she fell - rumours of achilles problem.

Current WC Rollins crashed in the same race, and the World Leader this year almost did - but stopped in time. Hurdles can be serious................



As a junior I never lost a race in the Geelong district in 6 years. I was leading a race by about ten metres and fell at the last hurdle. I smashed my collarbone and took half the skin off my back. It was a baking hot summers day and remember that they virtually had to spatula me out of the back of the holden at the Geelong hospital because I'd stuck to the old vinyl seat.

I raced again about 5 or 6 weeks later, I won my first two races, 60m and 100m hurdles but lost my nerve after having to re-run the 100m twice due to malfunctioning in the new electronic timing system (they'd just replaced timekeepers who used hand held stock watches). I ran the replay and won again but didn't run the 3rd one.

I never went over the hurdles again.

Watching the slow-mo of Sally, you can see her wrist folding out at a horrible angle just before the video becomes obscured.

As long as it hasn't psychologically damaged her, she should be pretty good. She can maintain her fitness at least although if as you've hinted at, that there may have been a leg injury involved then of course that's another story.
 
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Watching the video closely (This one is absolute crap quality) I wouldn't be surprised if she does have another injury. After a reasonable start, she just goes backwards. Then she seems to stand up just before the hurdle she crashes at. Something definitely went wrong before the crash - whether injury, a stumble, or a bad landing - once you lose your rhythm in the sprint hurdles, you may as well stop, because you are going nowhere.

Hope to get a better look at some stage.
 

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Norm Smith Medallist
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The men's volleyball team may be one to watch , having beaten Poland in London Olympics and narrowly lost to Italy. Overnight they took a set off the number 1 Brazil after losing to Italy in 4 last week as well.
 

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Norm Smith Medallist
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The men's volleyball team may be one to watch , having beaten Poland in London Olympics and narrowly lost to Italy. Overnight they took a set off the number 1 Brazil after losing to Italy in 4 last week as well.
They put up another good effort overnight losing to Brazil 31-29 25-19 25-19, too many misunderstandings cost them when they had momentum.
 
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