Would Sydney be tempted to tank?

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clogged

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The last round offers an interesting dimension, with Sydney possibly being given the ability to choose who they play in the first week of finals.

Hawthorn play Collingwood on Friday night, and given both sides form of late it could easily be a 10 goal margin to the Hawks. Geelong play Brisbane on Saturday afternoon and should win.

Sydney play Richmond on Saturday night. If Hawthorn belt the Pies and Sydney lose to Richmond by a relatively small margin, Hawthorn's percentage could easily move ahead of Sydney's and they would finish first. Sydney would finish second and play Geelong at home.

The Fremantle vs Port game is on at the same time, but both teams have come much closer to Sydney at home than Geelong did. While none of the three possible opponents have beaten the Swans, both the Power and the Dockers have been tough opponents for Sydney this year, but Geelong were thrashed by 110 points in their only encounter.

It is not outside the bounds of reason for the Swans to lose going into finals. In 2012, they lost the last round, and lots three of their four against top eight opponents. They still won the premiership. Also, other teams have tanked the last round to set up a better finals opponent in the qualifying final - see Essendon in 2001.

So will Sydney do it?

Doing so will also secure the Tigers appearing in consecutive finals for the first time since the 70s, and the march of the Tiger army from 8th might just wipe out whoever finishes fifth out of Freo or Port, and march on to beat the lose of 1 vs 4.
 

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hawker19

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Unlikely they'd tank, but possible.
However, I have been amazed at the number of football people assuming top spot is a fait accompli. On current form Hawthorn absolutely thrashing Collingwood and Richmond defeating Sydney would not be a massive surprise. If it transpires, Hawks finish top to play either Freo or Port at the G. Sydney would then play Geelong in Sydney. I'd argue both Sydney and Hawthorn would feel pretty comfortable with that outcome.
 

Belnakor

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The Fremantle vs Port game is on at the same time, but both teams have come much closer to Sydney at home than Geelong did. While none of the three possible opponents have beaten the Swans, both the Power and the Dockers have been tough opponents for Sydney this year, but Geelong were thrashed by 110 points in their only encounter.

Swans would be better off ensuring they play Geelong in the prelim or GF, which means beating Freo/Port next week.
 

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Here's how I see it happening:

Hawthorn thump an injury plagued Collingwood by 70 points. Hawthorn move to the same points as Sydney, with a percentage of 141%
Geelong beat Brisbane easily. Move to same number of points as Sydney and Hawthorn, but their percentage doesn't move high enough.
Fremantle vs Port. Someone wins, who cares.
Sydney at the same time as the above, lose to Richmond by 20 points. They stay on 68 points, and their percentage drops to 140%

Richmond secure 8th!

Hawthorn play, lets say Port, in the first round of finals, and win
Sydney play Geelong and win easily
Fremantle play Richmond and the Tigertrain demolishes them, wanting to atone for 2013's embarrassing loss to Carlton.

The next week Geelong play the winner of North vs Bombers (who cares, amirite?) and Port play Richmond. Geelong wins.

The Tigertrain stlll has momentum, pulls of the most unlikely upset win of all time. Three away wins in a row!

The next week the Tigertrain pulls into Sydney. Four consecutive weeks of away games takes its toll and they go down bravely.

Hawthorn play Geelong. Geelong get revenge against Hawthorn for last year's preliminary final disappointment.

The Grand Final. Sydney vs Geelong. Tipped to be match of the century, experts are split evenly as to who will win. But it turns out to be a fizzer as Sydney once again show themselves to be too classy for Geelong, for the third time this season. They are runaway 200 point winning premiers.
 

Zuta

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You can't. You play before the Swans.
You haven't even looked at the fixture have you? Even If Swans tank and Hawks finish top Geelong could tank as they play after all these games and could finish in 4th meaning Swans play Freo anyway. Geelong counter-tanking requires Freo to win though.
 

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You haven't even looked at the fixture have you? Even If Swans tank and Hawks finish top Geelong could tank as they play after all these games and could finish in 4th meaning Swans play Freo anyway. Geelong counter-tanking requires Freo to win though.
That's what I meant. Geelong can only tank if Freo win. In my scenario above Freo lose, ergo Geelong's result doesn't matter.
 
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There's not enough benefit for Sydney for them to influence the result. Geelong coming up- sounds great. Port travelling for the second week in a row or Freo flying across from Perth - that sounds good as well. When you are top and the best team you have no reason to be scared of anyone.

I thought several weeks ago that if the Hawks were established on top and Sydney second that Geelong could considering manipulating the result to get Hawthorn. Because then they play a team that I think they have a better shot at beating AND they avoid traveling, a double benefit. But they wont be in that position.

In terms of manipulating a result in this finals system I do wonder if Freo or Geel this year put the cue massively in the rack after half time of a qualifying final. Say you are down by 6 goals at half time do you rest some star mids forward, sub off an important player and coast to 10+ goal defeat knowing to win the premiership from that position you have to win the next 3 weeks without a week off. If you don't win a qualifying final there's no point dying just to keep the result close.
 

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Only problem is the dearth of suitable venues.
2 games Melb, game Geel, game SA, game WA, one game Sydney, one game QLD = 7. Take your pick out of 2nd games in QLD, Syd or a game in Tassie.

The real problem is the TV rights, you'd have to set up deals for 1 week with different channels or have 7 show a different game on each of it's 3 channels and have foxtel simulcast the other 6. They aren't paying much for that. Crowds would also suffer because I'd rather stay home and have the option of flicking to Syd/Rich or Freo/Port etc than go watch the dees and I'm sure it would be like that for a lot of fans.
 
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2 games Melb, game Geel, game SA, game WA, one game Sydney, one game QLD = 7. Take your pick out of 2nd games in QLD, Syd or a game in Tassie.

I get what you're saying, but you then need to make the games fit the venues.

What if there were four games that needed to be played in Melbourne?

The nine games at a time would be awesome if every team had its own ground, like the EPL, but if you had to squeeze them into what we have it would further undermine what is already a hopelessly compromised competition.

Plus them TV rights thingies...
 
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the AFL play most of the important fixtures on one day. that is better than a lot of other leagues. (A-League)

leave it as is. it is just not worth the hassle.

and no, Sydney wont tank. some players may be thinking of next week or we could rest some players but we will try to win. If the players are too "scared" to take on Freo then we dont deserve and will not be champions.
 

moses

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The last round offers an interesting dimension, with Sydney possibly being given the ability to choose who they play in the first week of finals.

Hawthorn play Collingwood on Friday night, and given both sides form of late it could easily be a 10 goal margin to the Hawks. Geelong play Brisbane on Saturday afternoon and should win.

Sydney play Richmond on Saturday night. If Hawthorn belt the Pies and Sydney lose to Richmond by a relatively small margin, Hawthorn's percentage could easily move ahead of Sydney's and they would finish first. Sydney would finish second and play Geelong at home.

The Fremantle vs Port game is on at the same time, but both teams have come much closer to Sydney at home than Geelong did. While none of the three possible opponents have beaten the Swans, both the Power and the Dockers have been tough opponents for Sydney this year, but Geelong were thrashed by 110 points in their only encounter.

It is not outside the bounds of reason for the Swans to lose going into finals. In 2012, they lost the last round, and lots three of their four against top eight opponents. They still won the premiership. Also, other teams have tanked the last round to set up a better finals opponent in the qualifying final - see Essendon in 2001.

So will Sydney do it?

Doing so will also secure the Tigers appearing in consecutive finals for the first time since the 70s, and the march of the Tiger army from 8th might just wipe out whoever finishes fifth out of Freo or Port, and march on to beat the lose of 1 vs 4.

DON'T PLANT THE SEED!
 
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2 games Melb, game Geel, game SA, game WA, one game Sydney, one game QLD = 7. Take your pick out of 2nd games in QLD, Syd or a game in Tassie.

The real problem is the TV rights, you'd have to set up deals for 1 week with different channels or have 7 show a different game on each of it's 3 channels and have foxtel simulcast the other 6. They aren't paying much for that. Crowds would also suffer because I'd rather stay home and have the option of flicking to Syd/Rich or Freo/Port etc than go watch the dees and I'm sure it would be like that for a lot of fans.

It is one week of the year and if a couple of games a broadcast on a delayed coverage it is no big deal. But as you said it would not happen because 1) The fans want it and more importantly 2) The AFL don't care about their fans and bow to the TV broadcaster.
 
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