2014 Brownlow Medal

[Keystone agony]

I give Cotchin a real small outside chance to win the medal. Relies on others under polling.

If Cotchin ca nab the 3 in round 2 vs carl and pinch some more elsewhere ( I remember having him named 4th in a few) he could gwt to 23 that is certainly capable.

 

[KardiniaPark]

was wondering how people have polled cotchin and rockliff. I have both around the 19-20 mark, looking at others my count looks high. Tatts have cotchin 16+ $2.10 and nabbed Rockliff in the handicap at $7.50 with a +10 headstart. Thoughts?

The Handicaps are a suckers market. Rockliff is no where near it this year. He'll need 10+ with everyone else off scratch and he's still not a good thing. That's my first and last piece of useful information. I only answered because your username is so great.

 

[Keystone agony]

The Handicaps are a suckers market. Rockliff is no where near it this year. He'll need 10+ with everyone else off scratch and he's still not a good thing. That's my first and last piece of useful information. I only answered because your username is so great.

Whats your count have rocky on? I have rocky 16

 

[esnaider10]

Don't often post my brownlow study.... This year I will as nobody gives my man much of a chance

Trent Cotchin:

1) 2
2) 3
3) 3,2
5) 3,2
10) 0,1 - hard to call 100pt win - maybe a 1
14) 1,0 - 22 possessions in 1st half - some are giving him the 3
15) 3
16) 3
17) 1,2,0,3 - very hard game - I rewatched twice with no volume - anything could happen here
19) 1,0,2,3 - reports indicate he may get the 3 - I'm being conservative here
20) 0,1,2 - if Ellis or miles miss votes - Cochin will poll here
21) 3
23) 1,2,3,0 - very hard game - some give him 3 some others give him 0

I don't give final predicted totals as I think that is really stupid way of looking at it....all I know is that if things go his way he will win the brownlow.


Some interesting money being thrown around for cotchin over the last 72 hours

Most vost last 10 rounds came in from 81/1 to now be 21/1 - Sportsbet
Most votes in group consisting of (JPK Gray lewis Heppell Cotchin) 12/1 - in from 21/1 - Betstar


My other tip is that I believe Dalhous should be 5/1 to be leading Bulldogs votes not 51/1


I have been profitable at brownlow in 5 of the last 6 years.

Good Luck to everyone on Monday!!!

 

[Keystone agony]

I give Cotchin a real small outside chance to win the medal. Relies on others under polling.

If Cotchin ca nab the 3 in round 2 vs carl and pinch some more elsewhere ( I remember having him named 4th in a few) he could gwt to 23 that is certainly capable.

I think Cotchin will be the late one to come in.

And deservingly so as I stated above.

I also feel Cotchin in arguably the best bet for most votes after 4 rounds without selwood or after 5 round s with selwood

 

[CamTinley]

Roo will poll 3 in R2, R18 and 2+ in R1, R5.

How do you end up with 8votes?

2 votes in Round 1
2 votes in Round 2
1 vote in Round 5
3 votes in Round 18

 

[KardiniaPark]

I don't give final predicted totals as I think that is really stupid way of looking at it....

I love this place.

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

a couple of interesting moves overnight. the round 4 leader (no selwood) on sportsbet had mumford move from $51 to $34 (my tallies have him co-leader at that point), and yes, money starting to flow for cotchin.

 

[KardiniaPark]

a couple of interesting moves overnight. the round 4 leader (no selwood) on sportsbet had mumford move from $51 to $34 (my tallies have him co-leader at that point), and yes, money starting to flow for cotchin.

It doesn't take much to move a Sportsbet market, they are hardly a courageous bunch.

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

It doesn't take much to move a Sportsbet market, they are hardly a courageous bunch.

oh for sure, they get pretty jippy pretty quickly on things. they are probably sweating more about stevie j in anything do with round 4

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

Inside Football have released their preview.

their "brownlow predictor" has gazz winning with 25 votes, from gray on 22 then fyfe and kennedy.

it has brodie smith finishing 6th.

with selwood finishing on 13 votes.

 

[KardiniaPark]

...brodie smith finishing 6th with selwood finishing on 13 votes.

Seriously - How are these people employed in the business? Can someone please ******* answer that? Can you link the article? I don't even...it's just ******* staggering.

 

[esnaider10]

I love this place.

Coming from someone that year after year posts brownlow rubbish.....if you are banking on your 'final vote count prediction' to be the amount that your particular player will get then you are a banana because if your analysis is incorrect in just a couple of your 23 games you will be looking at the difference between 1st spot and 5th spot.... You have to look at it in a different way.... This year is they year where someone will come over the top of selwood and Ablett - my predicted guy is cotchin but there are 3 others who have a chance IMO

 

[banana_bus]

Someone say my name?

 

[KardiniaPark]

Coming from someone that year after year posts brownlow rubbish.....if you are banking on your 'final vote count prediction' to be the amount that your particular player will get then you are a banana because if your analysis is incorrect in just a couple of your 23 games you will be looking at the difference between 1st spot and 5th spot.... You have to look at it in a different way.... This year is they year where someone will come over the top of selwood and Ablett - my predicted guy is cotchin but there are 3 others who have a chance IMO

I guarantee my voting system is better than 'maybe 0 ...could be 2...might be 3...possibly 1 ...I dunno?' theory that you seem to go with. FYI I have four separate numbers. IF I did only have one number it would still be a lot more accurate than having 15 votes between the min and max and just guessing from there. I assume you would have other players with a 20+ difference - Priddis for example?

You must get a migraine when you see a head to head market, 'oh gee he could win by 20 but he also might lose by 10!'

'I don't give final predicted totals as I think that is really stupid way of looking at it'

You then proceed...to give your votes

Min : 18
Max : 33
Med : 25.5

 

[Alfonz]

Not sure if someone has done this already, but I went through and calculated the votes for some fancies as if the coaches were voting for the Brownlow. In some games there might be ties, but I just used the order on the AFLCA website for simplicity. For someone like Gray that even works against him ... I gave him 1 vote when 3 were tied on 8, for example.

Obviously it just reflects the AFLCA leaderboard fairly directly, so I'm not sure this has much point ... and odds are it will look nothing like this, but anyway:


Player - Votes (games player was top 3 in AFLCA / games player polled in AFLCA)

Gray - 29 (14/18)
Fyfe - 24 (10/14)
Kennedy - 21 (11/14)
Franklin - 21 (8/11)
Ablett - 20 (8/10)
Selwood - 19 (9/11)
Pendlebury - 16 (7/12)
Priddis - 16 (8/13)
Lewis - 16 (9/10)
Boak - 15 (5/9)
Heppell - 14 (7/15)
Parker - 14 (6/13)
Cotchin - 10 (4/10)

 

[CamTinley]

Not sure if someone has done this already, but I went through and calculated the votes for some fancies as if the coaches were voting for the Brownlow. In some games there might be ties, but I just used the order on the AFLCA website for simplicity. For someone like Gray that even works against him ... I gave him 1 vote when 3 were tied on 8, for example.

Obviously it just reflects the AFLCA leaderboard fairly directly, so I'm not sure this has much point ... and odds are it will look nothing like this, but anyway:


Player - Votes (games player was top 3 in AFLCA / games player polled in AFLCA)

Gray - 29 (14/18)
Fyfe - 24 (10/14)
Kennedy - 21 (11/14)
Franklin - 21 (8/11)
Ablett - 20 (8/10)
Selwood - 19 (9/11)
Pendlebury - 16 (7/12)
Priddis - 16 (8/13)
Lewis - 16 (9/10)
Boak - 15 (5/9)
Heppell - 14 (7/15)
Parker - 14 (6/13)
Cotchin - 10 (4/10)

If Gray gets half that number he'll be doing well IMHO.

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

If Gray gets half that number he'll be doing well IMHO.

i dont believe for a minute gray will get 29

neither do i believe he will get as low as 15

 

[CamTinley]

i dont believe for a minute gray will get 29

neither do i believe he will get as low as 15

I do think Gray will get as low as 15. We have a few differences in our tallies that's for sure.

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

I do think Gray will get as low as 15. We have a few differences in our tallies that's for sure.

in that case, that suggests two things:

- boak must have a very high tally and will therefore smash the club votes
- port have not voted too well in club votes overall, which would be odd given their season. they simply dont have enough other blokes that will consistently take enough votes around the board - wines will get some, polec (although hard to say how long it will take the umps to latch onto him), westhoff, schulz, wingard a handful, but it should realistically be down to gray and boak to get their vast majority.

 

[Keystone agony]

If gray is only getting 14/15 in your votes id be loading up on Boak 41+

 

[Jugada]

Gray not getting votes =/= Boak picking up all his slack. Boak already has his stand out games where he will poll, if Gray misses out it will be a host of other players grabbing them like Westhoff, Wines, Hartlett, Schulz, Elbert, Wingard etc.

 

[KardiniaPark]

If gray is only getting 14/15 in your votes id be loading up on Boak 41+

So he's got Cotchin covered by 8

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

Gray not getting votes =/= Boak picking up all his slack. Boak already has his stand out games where he will poll, if Gray misses out it will be a host of other players grabbing them like Westhoff, Wines, Hartlett, Schulz, Elbert, Wingard etc.

out of interest, how many team votes do people here have port on?

 

[Sausage Legs]

Mr Bontompelli not to get a vote is 2.75, reckon his only chance is rd 15 v. melb. He kicked the match winner but have him about 5th in line. anyone give the lad one anywhere?