Brownlow Guru speaks - 2014

[LukeParkerno1]

bombersno1 thoughts?

First two I like lol, the other one is a long shot.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

I wouldn't be so confident.

I would, and believe me I am so stingy giving votes to key forwards. If he is on 20 on my count he won't be any lower. most have him in the 20-23 range (23 being the absolute limit)

 

[Young Gun #6]

I have Buddy on 20 which is BELOW your estimate. There is no way he is below 20. JPK hasn't polled well before, even in his so called 'big' games. It wouldn't shock me.

No way..??

He had MUCH better years in 2008 and 2011 and only managed 20 votes.. He kicked almost 102 goals in 2008 as opposed to 67 this year and had less standouts (Sewell and Mitchell only) stealing votes.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

No way..??

He had MUCH better years in 2008 and 2011 and only managed 20 votes.. He kicked almost 102 goals in 2008 as opposed to 67 this year and had less standouts (Sewell and Mitchell only) stealing votes.

He also had proven vote getters in the Hawthorn side that year and the year he kicked 102...Roughy kicked 75! He only has JPK and Parker to and extent stealing votes. His big games have been bigger this year. His season was better in 2008, his big games are better this season.

 

[thebarry111]

I don't think there would be many cases, if any, of a player having 40 touches, 20+ contested and a goal in a winning side and not getting 3 votes. Was the clear standout of that game from Buddy, Jack and Bird.

I have him aggressively on 21 with 22 being his absolute ceiling.

Greg Williams say's hi. Cost him a brownlow one year, turns out the ump's for that game hated him.

 

[SJ]

Ablett/Selwood quinella.

But it has been belted off the charts since it opened- $3.50 into $2.75 but it is still the most obvious market and with Brownlow jeez you can lose a lot. I always say go for a safe saver which this is. There is absolutely no way any of the others catch Ablett/Selwood. They should be at least 3-4 behind these two at the end, they are 3 behind on my count.

Considering Ablett only played 14 complete games and six of those were losses, there is absolutely a way that others can catch him.

BrownlowGuru's model clearly backs this up.

 

[Young Gun #6]

He also had proven vote getters in the Hawthorn side that year and the year he kicked 102...Roughy kicked 75! He only has JPK and Parker to and extent stealing votes. His big games have been bigger this year. His season was better in 2008, his big games are better this season.

Buddy:
2014: games (19), 20+ disposals (4), disposals (312), goals (67), contested marks (40), contested possessions (136), brownlow votes (?)
2011: games (19), 20+ disposals (8), disposals (365), goals (71), contested marks (32), contested possessions (157), brownlow votes (20)
2008: games (22), 20+ disposals (4), disposals (348), goals (102), contested marks (58), contested possessions (165), brownlow votes (20)

 

[Young Gun #6]

He also had proven vote getters in the Hawthorn side that year and the year he kicked 102...Roughy kicked 75! He only has JPK and Parker to and extent stealing votes. His big games have been bigger this year. His season was better in 2008, his big games are better this season.

Roughy kicked 66 goals in 2008 and .. Sewell polled only 16 votes (less than JPK will poll this year) and mitchell 15 (par with parker) add in Mcglynn, Hanneberry and Jack taking a lot of votes at stages throughout the year with a much worse year.

Not sure how you could say his BEST games were better this year:

Games with 5+ goals:
2014: 6
2011: 7
2008: 11

 

[BrownlowGuru]

QUINELLA

Geel: Selwood J / Pt A: Gray R 12.97
Geel: Selwood J / Syd: Kennedy J 14.69
GC: Ablett G / Geel: Selwood J 16.50
Coll: Pendlebury S / Geel: Selwood J 19.38
GC: Ablett G / Pt A: Gray R 23.82
Pt A: Gray R / Syd: Kennedy J 25.19
Geel: Selwood J / Haw: Lewis J 28.23
Coll: Pendlebury S / Pt A: Gray R 29.17
GC: Ablett G / Syd: Kennedy J 29.80
Coll: Pendlebury S / Syd: Kennedy J 30.51
Coll: Pendlebury S / GC: Ablett G 35.31
Geel: Selwood J / Rich: Cotchin T 36.95
Geel: Selwood J / WCE: Priddis M 40.78
Haw: Lewis J / Pt A: Gray R 45.33
Pt A: Gray R / Rich: Cotchin T 50.72
Haw: Lewis J / Syd: Kennedy J 51.99
Geel: Selwood J / Syd: Franklin L 57.46
Pt A: Gray R / WCE: Priddis M 58.66
Rich: Cotchin T / Syd: Kennedy J 60.97
GC: Ablett G / Haw: Lewis J 62.74
Coll: Pendlebury S / Haw: Lewis J 63.50
Syd: Kennedy J / WCE: Priddis M 63.78
GC: Ablett G / Rich: Cotchin T 68.17
Ess: Heppell D / Geel: Selwood J 70.08
GC: Ablett G / WCE: Priddis M 72.29
Coll: Pendlebury S / Rich: Cotchin T 76.42
Coll: Pendlebury S / WCE: Priddis M 92.51
Pt A: Gray R / Syd: Franklin L 92.54
GC: Ablett G / Syd: Franklin L 100.65
Ess: Heppell D / Pt A: Gray R 104.58
Haw: Lewis J / Rich: Cotchin T 121.24
Ess: Heppell D / GC: Ablett G 123.81
Coll: Pendlebury S / Syd: Franklin L 126.29
Ess: Heppell D / Syd: Kennedy J 131.20
Haw: Lewis J / WCE: Priddis M 139.66
Geel: Selwood J / Melb: Jones N 152.67
Geel: Selwood J / Pt A: Boak T 152.71
Syd: Franklin L / Syd: Kennedy J 169.11
Coll: Pendlebury S / Ess: Heppell D 177.15
Others > 200

 

[tangolikelama]

I reckon the top 5 will be: Ablett, Boak, Selwood, Kennedy and Lewis.

Boak won't finish top 5.

Statistically Boak's season looks better than Gray's but if you actually watch the game and have any knowledge about footy (which I hope the umps do) Gray has been the standout player for Port in 75% of games.

That's not me saying Boak isn't good by any shot. But Robbie just has that X factor which seems to make him stand out.

 

[workhorse]

Just for those that haven't seen BG before, this is his past work. (Brackets indicate where he had predicted them)

2013
Ablett (1st)
Selwood (2nd)
Swan (4th)

2012
Watson (1st)
Cotchin (2nd) & Mitchell (6th)
Thompson (3rd) & Swan (7th)

2011
Swan (2nd)
Dal Santo (9th)
Pendlebury (1st) & Boyd (5th)

2010
Judd (4th)
Ablett (2nd)
Swan (1st)

2009
Ablett (2nd)
Judd (4th)
Hayes (5th)

2008
Cooney (4th)
Black (7th)
Ablett (5th) & Richardson (12th)

2007
Bartel (1st)
B.Harvey (4th)
Black (not in top 20)

Pretty good track record...

 

[BrownlowGuru]

My model actually predicts Fyfe to top the voting, although I suspect the umpires do go shallow on votes for players they know are ineligible. Note that Rockliff is also expected to poll well.


MOST VOTES

Fyfe N (Fre) 4.524
Selwood J (Geel) 5.101
Gray R (Pt A) 8.198
Kennedy J (Syd) 9.776
Pendlebury S (Coll) 11.517
Ablett G (GC) 14.245
Cotchin T (Rich) 23.001
Lewis J (Haw) 26.263
Priddis M (WCE) 28.150
Heppell D (Ess) 40.497
Rockliff T (Bris) 60.133
Franklin L (Syd) 60.920
Others > 100

 

[SJ]

BrownlowGuru how does it pan out that Selwood and Gray are the two players most likely to place (and win), however they aren't the most likely quinella?

 

[thebarry111]

BrownlowGuru how does it pan out that Selwood and Gray are the two players most likely to place (and win), however they aren't the most likely quinella?

Yeah, for mine something has gone wrong here. Where is the Selwood/Gray combo?

 

[BrownlowGuru]

Yeah, for mine something has gone wrong here. Where is the Selwood/Gray combo?

Looks like I've spat out the 2013 quinella. My mistake. I'll get the 2014 one up this evening.

 

[Belnakor]

BrownlowGuru how does it pan out that Selwood and Gray are the two players most likely to place (and win), however they aren't the most likely quinella?

was wondering this myself

 

[Belnakor]

My model actually predicts Fyfe to top the voting, although I suspect the umpires do go shallow on votes for players they know are ineligible. Note that Rockliff is also expected to poll well.

any statistical backing to the suspension thing? I know in past years people have said the umpires take it into account, but the evidence would suggest otherwise.

 

[BrownlowGuru]

any statistical backing to the suspension thing? I know in past years people have said the umpires take it into account, but the evidence would suggest otherwise.

No that's just a gut feel - I haven't accounted for it in the model.

 

[The Passenger]

Boak won't finish top 5.

Statistically Boak's season looks better than Gray's but if you actually watch the game and have any knowledge about footy (which I hope the umps do) Gray has been the standout player for Port in 75% of games.

That's not me saying Boak isn't good by any shot. But Robbie just has that X factor which seems to make him stand out.

often players can take one good season before they start polling well, unless they have an absolute breakout like Ablett in 2007, who polled well but didn't win.

Gray might not poll as well as people think he will, particularly in the first half of the season whilst his reputation was still catching up to his performances.

That, on top of that fact he isn't a pure midfielder, could see him under perform a fair bit I reckon. But it's all speculation to Monday.

BrownlowGuru's predictions over the years have been pretty solid.

 

[thebarry111]

often players can take one good season before they start polling well, unless they have an absolute breakout like Ablett in 2007, who polled well but didn't win.

Gray might not poll as well as people think he will, particularly in the first half of the season whilst his reputation was still catching up to his performances.

That, on top of that fact he isn't a pure midfielder, could see him under perform a fair bit I reckon. But it's all speculation to Monday.

BrownlowGuru's predictions over the years have been pretty solid.

Agree with this, his first half of the season wasn't that great either. He could be on only 4 votes going into round 9. It would be a massive effort to come home from there when you consider his run coincided with Port's form slump. All factors point to him coming in well below expectations.

 

[Young Gun #6]

often players can take one good season before they start polling well, unless they have an absolute breakout like Ablett in 2007, who polled well but didn't win.

Gray might not poll as well as people think he will, particularly in the first half of the season whilst his reputation was still catching up to his performances.

That, on top of that fact he isn't a pure midfielder, could see him under perform a fair bit I reckon. But it's all speculation to Monday.

BrownlowGuru's predictions over the years have been pretty solid.

Cooney 2006 586 disposals, 23 goals
bartel 2007 545 disposals, 15 goals
cousins 2005 524 disposals, 22 goals
goodes 2006 459 disposals, 22 goals.

The thing that these guys winning is they stand out and kick goals. Gray does the exact same thing, stands out a s**t load and kicks a lot of goals. He had 400 disposals and 32 goals in 2011 so its not like he hasn't had a good season, just nothing on this level yet.

Usually takes a player a while to be noticed by the umps but watch the games throughout the year... the umps know exactly who he is and he is 4th in the league for free kicks this year. The umpires rarely ever pay free kicks against him when he should have a lot against and he gets a lot of frees that are 50/50's similar to selwood.

Look at guys like beams who came out of no where in 2012 to poll almost 20 votes in 9 games after having just a par year in 2011.

 

[kaiserchief13]

Where are the teams votes?

 

[JohnnyDrama1]

Does anyone know on the TAB quinella's are they in correct order? E.g Im looking for Selwood/Gray but can only find Gray/Selwood, is this because they are the same thing or the market is simply not out yet

 

[Belnakor]

Does anyone know on the TAB quinella's are they in correct order? E.g Im looking for Selwood/Gray but can only find Gray/Selwood, is this because they are the same thing or the market is simply not out yet

your thinking of an exacta. Quinella is just 1/2 in any order

 

[Belnakor]

The thing that these guys winning is they stand out and kick goals. Gray does the exact same thing, stands out a s**t load and kicks a lot of goals. He had 400 disposals and 32 goals in 2011 so its not like he hasn't had a good season, just nothing on this level yet.
.

goals are a very large consideration in brownlow voting. If you look at the last 10 years of brownlow winners the last amount kicked was 18. Thats pretty significant.